/ What happens when recovered COVID 19

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andyman666999 19 Mar 2020

As there appears to be little that can be done in the mid term (vaccine) to stop the spread and, at the risk of seeming pessimistic, the inevitable infection, I wanted to ask for opinions on what happens after you’ve had the infection, cleared it and developed immunity.

  


 

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Ridge 19 Mar 2020
In reply to andyman666999:

Depends how bad you get it. Could be anything from negligible effects to long term lung damage in a minority of cases.

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summo 19 Mar 2020
In reply to andyman666999:

>  developed immunity.

It mutates and it all starts again in Autumn, perhaps. 

The Chinese are testing running the process of easing restrictions, hopefully we'll watch and learn. Or just ignore as has been the case so far. 

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wercat 19 Mar 2020
In reply to Ridge:

the thing I'm not too happy about is that what I had from the End of November onwards seems to have left me with some kind of damage, put down as asthma by the doctor, from which I've not suffered previously.

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andyman666999 19 Mar 2020
In reply to summo:

That should be interesting. Was kind of thinking - can you be re infected, implications for social function in the midst of the lockdown etc. Rather than long lasting medical effects but sorry to hear you’ve had problems wercat. 
Currently in Malta and have had one return plane flight cancelled (Jet2)- couldn’t give me a different flight back to UK only a refund and an apology -helpful. Rebooked with easyJet - hoping that they won’t cancel. 

Post edited at 09:41
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Dave Garnett 19 Mar 2020
In reply to andyman666999:

Maybe those who have recovered should be tested to prove they are seropositive and given a discreet tattoo on their forearm which they can use to avoid the social opprobrium of being seen enjoying themselves in public.

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PeakDJ 19 Mar 2020
In reply to andyman666999:

I'm in France and have quite possibly just had COVID-19 - my symptoms matched perfectly but as tests were only available once hospitalised here, I'll never be sure.  I self isolated just in case (7 more days to go to make it 21 days in total).

I had the worst cough I have ever had, fatigue and intermittent fever.  The cough left my chest quite painful and I got short of breath with even the slightest exertion - going upstairs etc.   Not feeling too bad now but still coughing a lot.  No fever and no shortness of breath.  A fair bit of fatigue, which I can easily overcome by napping throughout the day as we are confined to our homes here anyway.

Now I have possibly had it and might have some immunity, I'd love to get involved in volunteering - either in healthcare or delivering food to the elderly.  I have a few concerns about this though, as even though I may be immune, I can possible still "carry" the virus and pass it on.

Also, as I am not "sure" I have had this specific virus, I can not guarantee immunity or that I won't put others at risk.  Without much more widespread testing (not sure what's happening with this and why there seem to be so few tests available) the ability to enlist volunteers who have immunity, to help with the sick or those who need food delivering etc, will be very difficult.

Post edited at 10:51
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Moley 19 Mar 2020
In reply to PeakDJ:

I think general testing of people who may have it will virtually cease, other than those in hospital (or important people like Trump and celebrities), all those resources will need to be diverted elsewhere.

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RomTheBear 19 Mar 2020
In reply to andyman666999:

> As there appears to be little that can be done in the mid term (vaccine) to stop the spread and, at the risk of seeming pessimistic, the inevitable infection, I wanted to ask for opinions on what happens after you’ve had the infection, cleared it and developed immunity.

Not inevitable. Confinement + social distancing works.

Post edited at 15:35
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RomTheBear 19 Mar 2020
In reply to summo:

> It mutates and it all starts again in Autumn, perhaps. 

> The Chinese are testing running the process of easing restrictions, hopefully we'll watch and learn. Or just ignore as has been the case so far. 

Seems to me the Chinese have almost eradicated it. No new cases except imported. Provided they monitor their entries better they can probably just get rid of it.

I am wrong in saying that all we need for this to go away is a generalised, strict lockdown for a month or so ? Combined with mass testing and strict testing at borders.

Surely this has to be cheaper that dragging this on forever...

Post edited at 15:40
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summo 19 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

I think the problem is if even one undetected person is socialising it could set the whole ball rolling again. 

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krikoman 19 Mar 2020
In reply to andyman666999:

>  and developed immunity.

How do you know?

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summo 19 Mar 2020
In reply to krikoman:

> >  and developed immunity.

> How do you know?

A bit like the vaccination, it's possibility, not a certainty. 

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Dan Arkle 19 Mar 2020
In reply to Dave Garnett:

>  a discreet tattoo 

 "And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name. Here is wisdom." 

Revelations 13:18

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Phil79 19 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Seems to me the Chinese have almost eradicated it. No new cases except imported. Provided they monitor their entries better they can probably just get rid of it.

> I am wrong in saying that all we need for this to go away is a generalised, strict lockdown for a month or so ? Combined with mass testing and strict testing at borders.

> Surely this has to be cheaper that dragging this on forever...

Hopefully you are right, but think its a bit too early to be drawing conclusions. 

Chinese are still lifting restrictions, if there is anyone within the population still infected (especially ongoing asymptomatic transmissions) then we could see further flare ups as people start mixing again?

I think you are right about testing though, mass testing required or surely you have no idea if its ever close to being eradicated.    

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stp 19 Mar 2020
In reply to andyman666999:

Well in this country a related question is how can you be sure you even had it and not something else. Symptoms vary and overlap with other infections and testing does not seem to be mandatory or adequate.

I think you'd want a reasonable guarantee that you are immune in the first place before doing anything different than before.

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Toerag 19 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

> I am wrong in saying that all we need for this to go away is a generalised, strict lockdown for a month or so ? Combined with mass testing and strict testing at borders.

The problem is that the world is on different start points in their crises - China may be out of it, but it's just getting started in Africa. It would be a valid option of you could guarantee you're not going to import it from somewhere that still has it, and I don't think you can do that, especially countries with land borders.  Even if you stop movement of people, or quarantine those coming in you've got to guarantee it can't come in on goods too.

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stp 19 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

> I am wrong in saying that all we need for this to go away is a generalised, strict lockdown for a month or so ? Combined with mass testing and strict testing at borders.

Presumably it would take a lot longer than a month. The illness lasts about 6 weeks I read. Seems to have taken the Chinese about 3 months and their policy was containment, something we haven't done. Though they were starting from zero knowledge.

But I take your point. We're going for herd immunity which implies a high percentage of us have to get the virus. Since 20% of infections are serious requiring medical intervention we can't have too many at one time so it seems like this is going to take some years before this immunity kicks in I would have thought.

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RomTheBear 19 Mar 2020
In reply to Toerag:

> The problem is that the world is on different start points in their crises - China may be out of it, but it's just getting started in Africa. It would be a valid option of you could guarantee you're not going to import it from somewhere that still has it, and I don't think you can do that, especially countries with land borders. 

But we have an island, so we would be in a good position. 

Seems to me the government approach has been indecisive, half-arsed, and fatalistic.

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RomTheBear 19 Mar 2020
In reply to stp:

> Presumably it would take a lot longer than a month. The illness lasts about 6 weeks I read. Seems to have taken the Chinese about 3 months and their policy was containment, something we haven't done. Though they were starting from zero knowledge.

But if we started now we would be in a much better position than they were when they started. Still I would prefer 3 months of tough restrictions and be done with it than 18 months of half arsing.

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stp 19 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

Well I agree with you. But it must surely be much more difficult by not going for containment. China mostly only had to deal with one city whereas I suspect even if we started tomorrow it's pretty much inevitable it's all over the country now.

It seems our government is pretty clueless and is pursuing an experiment that is contrary to the rest of the world. Or maybe they're pursuing some kind of shock doctrine plan.

We already have food shortages and I don't think China ever did.

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NBR 19 Mar 2020
In reply to stp:

>

> We already have food shortages and I don't think China ever did.

Is there actually a shortage or is it just too much stockpiled in the cupboards and freezers of the overly self centred?

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Timmd 19 Mar 2020
In reply to wercat:

> the thing I'm not too happy about is that what I had from the End of November onwards seems to have left me with some kind of damage, put down as asthma by the doctor, from which I've not suffered previously.

I can't speak on what you've had, but if lungs can recover from smoking, which scientists have now found that they can, hopefully your lungs will find their way back to health. Even with the aging process after teenage years our bodies seem to strive to recover and survive. 

Post edited at 18:52
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wercat 19 Mar 2020
In reply to Timmd:

yes, I'm hoping that when the air gets warmer and there are fewer fires in the village things might settle down. plus perhaps caming out somewhere away from everyone for a few days in the wilds.   Don't want to over egg things - I'm not crippled but definitely a bit impaired at the moment.  Thanks.

Post edited at 21:10
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stp 19 Mar 2020
In reply to NBR:

Good point. I suppose there's a shortage at the point of delivery. People can't be eating more. And I suppose that's caused by lack of confidence in the system to provide.

The result is the same though, insufficient goods in the shops. If it's like this now how is this going to pan out when when the surge arrives?

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Neil Williams 19 Mar 2020
In reply to stp:

If you look at countries having a surge, not a lot?

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summo 19 Mar 2020
In reply to NBR:

> Is there actually a shortage or is it just too much stockpiled in the cupboards and freezers of the overly self centred?

Or following government advice when it rumours granny might need quarantining for 12 weeks or they might lock London down. They trigger human instincts. 

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Toerag 19 Mar 2020
In reply to stp:

>  We already have food shortages and I don't think China ever did.

I saw a video of a British teacher in Wuhan who had recovered from it - he said they could get the basics, but not food as exotic as pepsi.

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PeakDJ 20 Mar 2020
In reply to Moley:

Testing has already been very limited... Right from the start... At least here in France.  It is more a case of the resources were never there than a question of diverting them.

I understand vaccines are being developed and it is reasonable to assume that a majority of the population will need to be vaccinated for this to be effective.  How is it that we can fund development and deployment of vaccination programmes, but not decent diagnostics?  We can only test a handful of people but we can vaccinate almost everyone?  One answer is possibly that testing would need to be regular and vaccines are a one time job.  We could, say, test a teacher tomorrow and say 'you don't have it so you can go to work," but unless we also test all the kids or repeat the test almost daily, then it will not be effective in halting the spread of the virus.  Unless of course we do a one off test for all and isolate all the positive cases...and even then the test isn't 100% accurate so some carriers would slip through the net. This is an over simplification, I think, but it is the only explanation I have come up with. 

Post edited at 22:27
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andyman666999 21 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

Yes it works - in the short to mid term. The data from containment is not complete - Chinese are only just lifting restrictions. One more case may set it all off again. What happens after that ? Waiting for a vaccine ? Interested to see how long this lasts with regard to the economic fallout 

Post edited at 10:25
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oldie 21 Mar 2020
In reply to summo:

> Re: and developed immunity  <

>A bit like the vaccination, it's possibility, not a certainty. <

No expert, but IMHO immunity after this infection may be a probability rather than a possibility, though not100% protection in every case. At any rate this should become apparent as experience and knowledge of the disease increases. It would obviously be invaluable if resistant people are able to move back into the front line at little risk to themselves and others. Roll on an antibody test to prove someone has had the disease together with a PCR test to prove absence of virus. I think China already has a basic form of certification for the "safe".

PS I'm well aware that comments like mine are just part of the uninformed speculation around, but optimistically those more knowledgeable can point out the rubbish.

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Luke90 21 Mar 2020
In reply to NBR:

> Is there actually a shortage or is it just too much stockpiled in the cupboards and freezers of the overly self centred?

Are there actually that many self-centred people stockpiling unreasonable amounts of stuff or is it just that almost everyone in the country has been making small and proportionate changes to their shopping habits in a thoroughly rational response to government advice?

Supermarket supply chains are carefully balanced to match typical buying habits. Most people's typical buying habits are fundamentally incompatible with government advice about social distancing and self-isolation.

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SouthernSteve 21 Mar 2020
In reply to Luke90:

> Are there actually that many self-centred people stockpiling unreasonable amounts of stuff or is it just that almost everyone in the country has been making small and proportionate changes to their shopping habits in a thoroughly rational response to government advice?

I don't think this is an unfair comment. Two people working at home all week, compared to when I am away for 2 days, eat in canteens at lunchtime and usually the pub on a Thursday night as well as now having lunch at home every day has made our shelves look very bare and we do need more shopping! It will probably save some money, but not at the supermarket. This will definitely be worse if you have children at home.

However, when I did my shopping in Tesco on Thursday I had one of the emptiest shopping trolleys in the very long queues and I do think people are filling their houses to maximum capacity and being greedy. There were almost no household cleaning materials and virtually no meat in the store and no eggs at all. I think the first two are being stockpiled.

Finally the big shop every 10-14 days is much more compatible with social isolation than smaller shopping trips every 3-4 days, so there may be a lull now, but I doubt it.

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Lankyman 21 Mar 2020
In reply to Dan Arkle:

> >  a discreet tattoo 

>  "And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name. Here is wisdom." 

> Revelations 13:18


I rang 665 once by mistake and got The Beast's nextdoor neighbour.

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Timmd 22 Mar 2020
In reply to wercat:

> yes, I'm hoping that when the air gets warmer and there are fewer fires in the village things might settle down. plus perhaps caming out somewhere away from everyone for a few days in the wilds.   Don't want to over egg things - I'm not crippled but definitely a bit impaired at the moment.  Thanks.

I suppose your heart may become stronger to compensate in the shorter term if your lungs do take a while to get back to normal?

A few years after I'd done 'clearing out' after smoking, it dawned on me that the rest of my body might gradually compensate for any damage I'd caused to my lungs if I spent enough time exercising. A family friend in his late 60's circa who grew up with parents who smoked is extremely fit and has a smoker's lung capacity, which means he struggles at altitude but is otherwise okay. I think he has smoked joints in adulthood when I think of it, but he's fast up hills from always being out. 

I have heard a statistic of 20 percent reduction of lung function, if my 'tone nose' is accurate, a bit impaired doesn't sound like a 20 percent reduction in lung function. 

Post edited at 16:29
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Coel Hellier 22 Mar 2020
In reply to PeakDJ:

> How is it that we can fund development and deployment of vaccination programmes, but not decent diagnostics?  We can only test a handful of people but we can vaccinate almost everyone?

Well we can't vaccinate everyone -- once a vaccine has been developed, it would then take some months to mass-produce it to the required level.  Similarly, the diagnostic testing could be mass produced, but it takes time to ramp up the capacity.

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Timmd 22 Mar 2020
In reply to Coel Hellier:

> Well we can't vaccinate everyone -- once a vaccine has been developed, it would then take some months to mass-produce it to the required level.  Similarly, the diagnostic testing could be mass produced, but it takes time to ramp up the capacity.

How great a percentage of children managed to be vaccinated before the autism scare put a dent in things?

Edit: It's recently dropped to 90% of children. https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/vaccination-coverage-for-children-and-mothers-1

Probably just about everybody could be vaccinated within time.

Post edited at 16:56
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PeakDJ 22 Mar 2020
In reply to Coel Hellier:

The PCR test would be fairly easy to produce as it's a well known technique... 

I've been a little surprised in the lack of testing in Europe.  It is fairly clear from what I've read that countries like S Korea, Singapore and China tested more widely and seemed to have slowed the spread of the virus, if one believes their numbers. 

Our lack of tracing contacts and testing in the early stages of the epidemic in Europe will probably result in a longer confinement period and more long term cost for the economy IMO

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SouthernSteve 22 Mar 2020
In reply to PeakDJ:

Your are right that PCR can be done by anyone with the equipment, but there are not enough PCR and realtime PCR machines available and to help many have been requisitioned from university labs and other diagnostic laboratories. They are definitely ramping up the number of assays, but there are some reagents in demand. Several of our post-docs have gone over to work in the labs to do diagnostic testing rather than their normal research.

What would be most useful now is a serology test so that we can tell who has had the disease after the event, so that we could get some idea of who was safe and who wasn't. This would be very valuable for the medics working in hospital etc. 

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Planeandsimple 22 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

And you believe the statistics handed to you by a government which hid the pandemic from the world and repeatedly lied about its virulence, morbidity and origin. The same country which silenced the media so it's people couldn't talk about it and now it's trying to rewrite history with propaganda blaming America. RomTheGullible. 

This will go down in history as an atrocity comparable only to the arrival of European diseases on the shores of the Americas. A cocktail of brute ignorance, poor hygiene and greed which will hit the countries of The New Silk Road the hardest. 

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Planeandsimple 22 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

> But we have an island, so we would be in a good position. 

> Seems to me the government approach has been indecisive, half-arsed, and fatalistic.

That's your opinion as a epidemiologist? Personally I'd prefer to follow the opinion of the scientists who are actually in control at the moment.  The government actually has very few levers to pull, other than economic ones in times like this they are told what to do by experts who have spent their lives studying this field. They don't really have a choice. 

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CurlyStevo 22 Mar 2020
In reply to RomTheBear:

I think the Chinese are along way off herd immunity if that’s what your are getting at maybe more than 1000 times!

Post edited at 23:33
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CurlyStevo 22 Mar 2020
In reply to Planeandsimple:

My guess based on several recent studies is that stats are way out. It seems it’s likely atleast 40 but as much as 75 percent of cases are completely asymptomatic for the duration. It means the testing is probably way out as it tends towards people with some symptoms. Even on the diamond princess (where everyone was tested multiple times) we are only at about 1 percent cfr deaths and the average age of everyone on the boat was 58. It seems likely the three drugs that have shown efficacy in clinical trials will bring the deaths and hospitalisation down yet further. Yes the r0 and hospital bed numbers means that the current course of action is correct, but medium term I think we’ll find a reasonable compromise until a vaccine is found. I wouldn’t be surprised with the right drugs and ventilators / beds if we can see more like 0.2 -  0.4 percent cfr way before a vaccine is produced. Maybe with some social changes but not too many we can bring that down yet further.

Post edited at 23:53
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RomTheBear 23 Mar 2020
In reply to Planeandsimple:

> That's your opinion as a epidemiologist? Personally I'd prefer to follow the opinion of the scientists who are actually in control at the moment. 

 

You don’t need to be an epidemiologist to understand that viruses don’t swim across the oceans by themselves. But hey, maybe that’s a bit hard to understand for you.

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RomTheBear 23 Mar 2020
In reply to CurlyStevo:

> I think the Chinese are along way off herd immunity if that’s what your are getting at maybe more than 1000 times!

Of course. Herd immunity is simply not a feasible option as it involves way to many death. Even the Chinese government which doesn’t exactly have the reputation to care much about its people couldn’t contenance it.

Only humane option is suppression followed by tracking the virus down, at least until we get treatment or vaccine. Herd immunity may be the outcome if we fail but there is no reason to fail if we are diligent.

Post edited at 04:29
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stp 23 Mar 2020
In reply to Toerag:

Interesting. I saw a video of some Irish guy in Wuhan. He said just the opposite and filmed himself going into a supermarket saying the shelves were just as full as normal.

Maybe he didn't try to buy Pepsi.

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