UKC

The 12th December looms and we will soon be putting a cross on the ballot paper and ushering in a new prime minister.  

What I cant understand for the life of me is how we, and the polls seems to suggest we will, be putting Boris back in to no10.

The man has shown to be wholly untrustworthy, has lied, prorogued, demonstrated tactics a banana republic would be proud of and in all other walks of life would have been fired a long time ago.

Why is the UK electorate not prepared to fire him, to send him to the job seekers office as I would have been a long time ago if I had behaved that way in my role.

I appreciate that I may be answering my own question here but I appreciate that most people would rather see him in power than JC.  I will be voting LibDem as a middle ground; why is there not a massive swell of voters saying that they cant vote for the two loons and go for something moderate.

But back on point, and regardless of the opposition, how on earth can we, the voters, be prepared to vote back in a 'leader' who would in any other business, be out of a job?

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Because he’s going to have Brexit done within 100 days. Sadly people don’t understand the reality, and they believe that.

Combine that with the fact all the opposition parties are viewed as being completely limp and we have ourselves a Boris joke of a prime minister.

A terrible state of affairs.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

I have no idea. If applying for high office required the passing of some kind of “fit and proper person” test and/or psychological evaluation, he wouldn’t even be in the running. The shit sure rises to the top in British politics. 

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Because despite knowing that Boris is a liar and a philanderer, most wealthy conservative people approve of him for his Tory credentials and the certainty that he will favour his old cronies in business and finance.  

In reply to Rigid Raider:

" he will favour his old cronies in business and finance"

It's rather more nuanced than that so don't exaggerate. I imagine he'll also favour whatever random shag (that definitely wasn't a shag) he's rounded up that week/month.

FML

In reply to jezb1:

...and not forgetting the utterly amazing trade deal with the EU that will allow us to trade as if we were in the EU but without any of the restrictions, rules or regulations, all to be negotiated by the end of 2020.  Clearly we should vote for a such a god.  I can't wait for the utopia that the UK will be.  Ahh, I'm now reclining in my chair at work thinking of the massive pay rise I will get soon as an outcome of our GDP going through the roof.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

I think you answered your own question. Even the complete sh*t storm of leaving the EU is seen as better then Venezuelan economics under the Great Leader’s committee to live on our knees. Not my words by the way, just caught it on the radio in the car.

As a staunch remainer and Labour Party supporter I won’t vote for either Boris or Jezza for obvious reasons, and Jo Swinson for even more obvious reasons. They say that a country gets the leaders it deserves but I can’t see what we’ve done to deserve this. 

I think Boris will have a secure working majority and take the U.K. out of the EU, for once doing what he says he will do. In the eyes of many, who see the referendum result being disrespected by a Parliament who tells them to go away and think again, Bojo’s disgraceful antics will be forgiven at least in the short term. Just like the militant tendency purge to make Labour electable in the past, a leader with backbone is going to have to rebuild the party after this.
 

In reply to Rigid Raider:

I think that the Conservative Party has always relied on its working class vote to get it over the line consistently. The votes of mostly wealthy voters of any allegiance don’t get a party elected.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Because the self defeating ‘hard’ left crowd have done such a good job of vilifying the Lib Dems as ‘Tory lite’ and talking down their electoral prospects that none of the huge swathe of middle ground voters feels they can vote for them.

As a reward they’re going to get another term of the same from the Conservatives etc.

I will also be voting Lib Dem. It’s a long game but it’s the only way out of this farce.

In reply to paul_in_cumbria:

And the cash they can throw around will be what convinces people that it's in their interests to do so.

Money = influence and is undeniable

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

I would think the reason is obvious.  

An unelectable leader of the opposition plus the most extreme bias in news reporting I've witnessed for a long time.

This combined with an electorate that just can't shake the old habits of voting for the 2 main parties

In reply to paul_in_cumbria:

What are the even more obvious reasons for not voting for Jo Swinson? I still find it hard to understand what it is a lot of people think she's done that's worse than Johnson, and she has a more deliverable plan for improving things for people than Corbyn without any of the questionable friends baggage.

I would agree her voting record has some things in it where if taking that one vote in isolation I wish she'd done something else, but it ignores the compromises that they had to make to reign in the tories. Those votes allowed them to have the cuts shifted further away from welfare and benefits than they would otherwise have been, they got equal marriage passed and they got a massive increase in green energy from a Lib Dem led department. One only has to look at the mess caused after a year and a bit of Tory majority government from 2015 to 2016 to see why it was important to have the Lib Dems in coalition.

In reply to paul_in_cumbria:

I wouldn't try to dissuade you of your distaste for Swinson or Corbyn but, as a staunch remainder, wouldn't the rational move be to hold your nose and vote for one or other of their candidates? We very rarely get the chance to enthusiastically vote for a candidate, party or leader that perfectly match all our views. Surely in this election, tactically voting for the least worst option is more important than ever.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Because Swinson has proven not be a moderate middle ground at all. 

Its all well and good, and I am wholly in support of, the Lib Dems opposing Brexit.  But her decision to completely over-turn the decision and not allow a further referendum on it, after the last 3 years of promised action, is about the first time I have to agree with the Brexiteer position of a lack of democracy.  She's basically saying the public can't be trusted.

It is about the most divisive, arrogant, course of action any party could take and right up there with the hard-brexit lunacy.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

I get the feeling that the British people are at last coming of age. For centuries we have lived a cosy life, trusting and believing anybody in a position of authority. That blind trust has enabled us to be screwed over in every walk of life by the unscrupulous, starting with the mass sacrifices of WW1 and going right on to the wealthy retired folk who have lost their savings to an internet fraudster. Now we are beginning to understand that nobody can actually be trusted and slowly we are rebuilding our civic systems to eliminate any element of trust from decision-making. This year I think people are at last realising that the internet and social media are full of cheats and liars and politics is no different. If we lived in a country like Russia or Nigeria where we were already accustomed to being cheated at every turn of the road we wouldn't be going through this painful realisation.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Calm down dear. Remember it’s just a ride:

youtube.com/watch?v=cvz9uSK3zXo&

In reply to paul_in_cumbria:

What people are often overlooking is that none of the opposition parties have any chance of gaining a majority, so their manifestos - and the scare stories surrounding them - are largely irrelevant. The only party that has a chance of being dangerous after the election is the Tory party.

Which means that, in order to prevent the imminent sh!tstorm, voting for any other party, or just abstaining, is not only necessary but also largely without risk of anything worse than a temporary hung parliament.

Of course, the maximum use of a vote to achieve this least-worst outcome will depend on your constituency.

My dad is disabled and my mam is a carer and one of the waspi women.  They are in what is usually a strong labour seat but have told me they will be voting conservative.  They say it is because they want to leave the EU and because labour left the country bankrupt.  My dad is very fond of calling corbyn a marxist although he doesn't really know what it means when i ask him.  They like Boris Johnson, they find him endearing.

My dad has a serious disability and had his disability benefit taken away after the assessments a few years back only after a lot of stress and a year of fighting managed to have it reinstated.  My mam has always been on low wages working for charities but wants to work helping people, though in my opinion is not paid well enough for what she has done her entire life.

They have very little in the way of savings, don't own their own home and will not be inheriting anything.  They are worried what will happen to them when my mam leaves work.

I won't talk to them about politics anymore because I find their views incredibly frustrating.  They get all their news from the television and read the mail, sun and local papers.  They don't really use the internet.

And they are not alone.  Despite being nearly 40 I don't have many friends who earn >20,000 a year, live in an area with high underemployment and not much in the way of opportunity.  Our local services have been chopped dramatically and yet the majority of people I know will be voting conservative (mainly due to the EU issue).

Do people think it can't possibly get any worse?  I could scream!

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

As I've said before society is bent on flagellating itself .

We've all been bad and must be punished. 

Severely too.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

I hope you aren't voting LD in a Tory constituency where Labour is the strongest challenger. Vote tactically to keep the worse of the big parties out!

In reply to Enty:

Eh?  Did you read Paul's post or am I missing some irony here?

In reply to tjdodd:

Yes. Oops. deleted now. )

E

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Because there’s no credible alternative. 
 

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Brexit has been delivered by Jeremy Corbyn not Boris. Fecklessness personified when the country needed robust opposition.

In reply to Pan Ron:

I would agree if you can modify what you said to this.  Saying they would do this if they were given a majority is democratic, unassailably, but so unlikely it is a stupid position to adopt.

In reply to Rigid Raider:

Revolution, Revolution, Revolution.  Can I drive the tumbril?  Who's going to do the knitting - Norah?

In reply to gritrash0:

I feel exactly so.   Time to sweep the shit away

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

The main reason is because the moderate/centre left vote is split and the right wing vote isn't any more (as the Brexit Party are telling people to vote Tory).
 

You, and every other centre-left voter, need to vote tactically to get the Tories out.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

The latest insanity is that he's using a Hauwei smartphone.  He's got to have been told about that by GCHQ but he's doing it anyway.  Another example of Tory/Oxbridge 'I know best' common sense over professional advice?

Whatever the reason, if that thing is in our Prime Minister's pocket the operating assumption has to be the Chinese are listening to everything that is said in his proximity, reading every e-mail and text, tracking his location and having an occasional look through the cameras.  They control the software on that phone so why wouldn't they?

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

I think this election is still on a knife edge and I'll explain why. The gap between Labour and the tories has barely moved since the start of the campaign.  The national poll predictions of a comfortable tory majority are just daft, as local polls clearly show too many tory votes are in the wrong place to help (in constituencies they are due to win easily). If most progressive remain or neutral voters vote for the party most likely to beat the local tory in any marginals, to keep Boris and his dangerous cabinet out of power, there will be a comfortable minority Labour government, with Corbyn out or forced to compromise heavily. The question is how many progressives will compromise and vote tactically and current local polling indicates things are close. There could even be some joyful surprises in tory marginals if enough Lib Dems in Chingford vote Labour and unseat IDS or vice versa in Esher and unseat Raab.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/11/will-labour-faiza-shaheen-...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/30/poll-finds-dominic-raab-ri...

For a comfortable working majority, the tories need to win at least 30 and possibly up to 50 Labour held marginals in the N, the midlands and Wales (50 if they lose too many in Scotland, London and the S and SW). The swing needed for that is bigger than the difference in the polls and the swing effect in those seats assumes the Brexit party will have a neutral effect in those seats (very unlikely.. given Brexit big names in the north are resigning over the matter). Another plus on the progressive side is the demographics... old people who normally voted Labour are indeed moving more to the tories but they are easy to assess ....registration for the young has improved and they are hard to see in the polls as they are always more reluctant to talk to polsters.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/10/31/2019-gener...

There is a very real chance of avoiding a Boris majority if everyone works hard to explain to as many people they know as possible in marginals to vote tactically, given that: Corbyn is nothing to fear as he can't get his own way in any likely outcome but Boris is to be feared as he is plain dishonest about all this oven ready brexit stuff; that if Boris wins brexit will consume UK politics in 2020 and no deal is the most likely outcome in December; the economic impact of any brexit he could likely negotiate according to most economists is bad... with no deal, almost as expensive as the Labour manifesto (a manifesto that won't be implemented in any case). Most worrying of all to me is what this the cabinet of half baked libertarians and crooks will do to our country if the economy turns really bad....I can't see them reacting sensibly or going quietly. 

In reply to Neil Williams:

Yes, we've had the same shit in Scotland since 2014. Brexit has just compounded the mess.

In reply to Removed User:

It is true that the SNP has caused a reduction in the Labour vote which has made the Tories more likely to win.

An SNP-Labour alliance would seem to solve that, but the elephant in the room, as it were, is Scottish independence.

In reply to wercat:

Ok, they’ve ruined everything for everyone, but that seems a harsh way to describe Momentum 😂

In reply to kestrelspl:

I would "like" to vote LibDem as I think, overall, their policies (with the exception of a couple of howlers), are quite good, but I am in a Tory stronghold and can't afford to risk Labour taking control, slim though the odds are of that.

I think the LibDem pledge to immediately revoke A50 is, while entirely up front, clear and honest, political suicide in the current environment.

In reply to paul_in_cumbria:

Momentum are in part the cause of the issue - a Blairite Labour candidate would win with a landslide, I reckon.  For all I don't have an issue with Corbyn, he is a bit far left for the mainstream.

In reply to Luke90:

I’m voting Green, and have a lot of time for their MP, leadership and message. Unfortunately even the end of the world couldn’t overturn the Tory vote in the Derbyshire Dales. 

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Are any of the big parties better than the others?

In reply to Removed User:

The scottish predictions are based on some of the same wrong assumptions and missing the same young voters. They generally say the tories will only lose 2 to 5 seats, I expect a few more.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/map-here-s-how-scotland-may-look-aft...

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

Progressive scots need to think more on what the tories will do. I can see the extreme end of the SNP being secretly delighted, as a Boris win will further the chance of independance, but stopping Boris is more important than anything else (irrespective of any political bonus to an independance based party). Nothing stops remain unionists tactically voting SNP in tory marginals, where they are by far the strongest challenger, and then voting remain twice in the following year). 

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

People tell me he has a personality which is why they like him.  To me it seems he has a personality disorder and is a shameless liar and power crazed loon, but also a lot of people are fixated on Brexit and his promise to get it done resonates with a lot of people.

In reply to timjones:

2 are more dangerous and constitute enemy

In reply to Rigid Raider:

To be fair in some mainland European countries, being a philanderer is almost a job requirement for politicians

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Please consider voting for policies rather than just looking at personalities. If unsure, a good and unbiased place to start is:

https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Sadly, 17.4 million voted for Brexit (and can't admit they were misguided)  and see Bozo as the way they get their wish..... even though we don't know what Brexit will consist of.

In reply to Offwidth:

The thing that stops people tactically voting against the Tories in Scotland is the independence issue. Labour will probably get hammered in Labour Leave seats in England because of Brexit. Brexit is more important than anything else to many people in England.

In Scotland plenty people vote Tory to keep the separatists out because Remaining in the UK is more important than anything else.  Why the Hell would you vote for a party that is determined to stop you from being who you are, British, and wants to wreak more damage on your country, Scotland, than a hard deal Brexit? The rational thing to do is vote anti SNP.

Conversely separatists won't vote for RemainUK parties because independence is more important to them than anything else even while acknowledging that their performance in Government has been awful. 

I expect we will see the Scottish effect writ large across the UK on December 13th. A lot of people who have little interest in politics are voting on an issue or issues that have little to do with what has been discussed by those with an interest in politics over the last month.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

You've answered your own question in your comment about JC. If it weren't for that imbecile Labour would be odds-on to pulverise Johnson. Corbyn's stupidity, arrogance and utter lack of any self-awareness is leaving the door wide open to Johnson despite his lies and ineptitude. I'm rather hoping that Labour sees the light and flings Corbyn into the gutter at the first post-election opportunity they get, but the bunch of weaklings are as much a shower of shit as the Conservatives at the moment.

In reply to rj_townsend:

Even if they ditch Corbyn, it's quite likely they'll get a replacement from the same wing of the party due to the way the Labour leader is elected now. If they want a majority, they're going to have to get rid of the Momentum influence too.

In reply to mik82: milliband has got a lot to answer for.  

In reply to mik82:

I think you're right up to a point, but it's not impossible that Corbyn's replacement will be a bit more politically aware and will be a bit more flexible. Corbyn has decades of disloyalty to the party under his belt, and a steadfast refusal to bend from a set of rigid and not entirely credible principles. Corbyn's replacement will be younger, with less political baggage and hopefully a better understanding of what is needed to win a genera election. And it would be good if the next leader of the Labour party were a woman. 

In reply to timjones:

A better party according to the Economist would be the LibDems: 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/12/05/britains-nightmare-before-chri...

 - partly because they would allegedly rein in the worst excesses of Corbyn and Johnson. But we've heard that one before, haven't we?

In reply to timjones:

Imho, yes. "A plague on both your houses and I shan't vote or will waste my vote" is a total cop out unless you're an anarchist. At least JC is largely honest and not in politics for his own financial interest. I don't believe much that BJ says and particularly anything he says about our NHS. 

In reply to tcashmore:

Not nearly as much as the unions who elected Ed and not David

In reply to tcashmore:

..and Len McCluskey.

In reply to Removed User:

I think your logic is completely backwards. Electing a few more SNP MP's in tory marginals in a brexit based election doesn't mean Scotland will leave the UK... the tactical voting progessives can just vote no in any subsequent referendum. Voting in tories, if it enables the Boris madness and his ragtag reactionary cabinet, will almost certainly generate a UK crisis, with masively increased tension between Westminster and Scotland, that I think will genuinely convince enough Scots that its time to leave. 

In reply to Rog Wilko:

There's an interesting reasoned case for spoiling your ballot paper from James Bloodworth here:

https://unherd.com/2019/12/why-im-going-to-spoil-my-ballot/

I can see his point but I'm not going to do that.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

One reason. And one reason only, no other. 

The billionaires own the media and they use it to shape the views of the population into voting for who they tell people to.

Who did Rupert Murdoch tell British people to vote for in 1997 and 1979? 

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

I haven’t read the thread, so this has probably been said before, but in the general the reason why personal unelectability doesn’t damage far-right leaders is obvious; they attract people who wish to hang to their privileges and naturally are willing to see any tactics employed to that end, and people who believe that .’everyone is out for themselves’ anyway and that that’s the way society ought to be, and therefore have no problem with a little personal corruption.

jcm

In reply to wercat:

So the only 2 parties that stand a chance of winning are dangerous and an enemy?

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Forget the leaders, one of whom is dishonest and incompetent, the other just incompetent and neither is anywhere near a good  statesman.

I asked about the parties which is a subtly different question.

In reply to Bob Kemp:

We have heard it before, but I think we all lost out when their supporters threw their toys out of the pram based on some pretty unreasonabe expectations of what the minority partner in a coalition can achieve.

In reply to Offwidth:

I'm not talking for myself, just telling you how it is.

For the record I would never vote SNP or Tory. Never.

In reply to timjones:

Pretty much exactly what Rog Wilko said.

In addition, there are a number of Labour proposals which are very silly, but overall their plans are much better for the country.

And Corbyn is undoubtedly a better person than Johnson, if you want to call it on personalities, regardless of his somewhat 1970s based plans.

In reply to johang:

Is Corbyn a better person than Johnson? How does accepting £20,000 from Iran's Press TV square with that? 

In reply to johang:

That depends whether you want someone that you could see as a friend or someone who would make a good PM.  They are fighting for the post of PM and I don't think that either of them are anywhere near as good as we need. 

Sadly I think that both parties have far better candidates for PM in their ranks.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Nothing has changed since the printing of the ragged trousered philanthropists around 100 years ago. It should be given away free in schools but I don't think I even heard about it until I was in my 40s. 

Some possible reasons:

1. People believe boris

2. The media

3. People fear jc probably because of 2

4. Rich/ posh people must know more than poor/ lower classes

5. More of the same

6. Fptp means there's no point voting for minor parties

7. I have lots of friends from the outdoors etc who would vote for blue labour (Blair, Miliband etc) but hate Corbyn, too many people believe the hype

8. I give up! 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ragged-Trousered_Philanthropists

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Sadly the problem with democracy is that you let the people vote. A lady was asking local Lidl staff when they would be closing down after Brexit. 

Hardly anyone has ever lost out by relying on the lack of intelligence of the Great British electorate.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Because under our fu*ked up electoral system voting for the middle ground candidate is basically a vote for whichever 'extreme' happens to hold sway in your seat so we vote tactically for the least worst option which means no real pressure ever comes to bear to reform the system. It's fu*ked. We're fu*ked by it. 

60 odd percent of us won't. 

Jk

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

I feel your pain,  'getting Brexit done' is both a lie, and a lie about doing something stupid. If I was going to lie I'd promise something good, and not be able to deliver it rather than promising something stupid and then couldn't even do that. Strange that  Mr Johnson has somehow persuaded lots of people to support his shit deal, that when delivered will be even shitter because the whole issue of regulatory divergence hasn't been addressed. There are many in his cabinet who wrote Brittannia Unchained or spouted a whole lot of nationalistic/faith based crap about our place in the world.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

The brexshit supporters are just like the tRump supporters in the US. Institutional racists who see this as the opportunity to 'stick it to Johnny Foreigner and damn the consequences' 

They are a brainwashed cult, their thoughts guided by the ultra right wing media. All they want is to be is 'free of the EU' as if this is some magic cure for societies ills. 

They don't realise, or refuse to acknowledge, that they are the turkeys, Xmas is approaching and they voted for it. 

Idiots. Every single one of them. 

Andy F

In reply to Bob Kemp:

I would absolutely urge any Tory or Brexit Party voter to pay close attention to that and to follow its advice

In reply to johncoxmysteriously:

But Boris Johnson isn't "far-right". He's well on the right of things but not far-right. Nick Griffin of the BNP was far-right and John Tyndall of the NF was far-right, in the same sort of way as Jeremy Corbyn is far-left. 

In reply to gritrash0:

This is a wonderful post. It perfectly sums up the tragedy of ordinary working / vulnerable people being influenced by the right-wing press to vote against their own interests. It makes you want to cry.

And yes, one of the common right-wing tropes is that Corbyn is a Marxist. In what sense? None of Corbyn's accusers ever bothers to explain what they mean by that, if they know themselves. They just think it sounds damning. As a critic of unbridled capitalism and an analyst of its brutal exploitation of the economically vulnerable, Marx is much admired across the political spectrum (except by the far-right, of course). In this sense, Corbyn, along with all other centre-ground politicians, has Marxist sympathies. What Marx is rightly criticised for is his historicism (as influenced by Hegel), which replaces any thought of improving conditions for the working class by means of democratic political process with the 'historical inevitability' of violent revolution. In this latter sense, Corbyn is no more a Marxist than Boris Johnson is: indeed, given that Corbyn's respect for democracy is manifestly greater than Johnson's, perhaps even less so. 

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Because we're all awful. 

In reply to wurzelinzummerset:

Interesting. That's not at all how I would place JC on a scale - he strikes me as considerably more moderate than people like Griffin. I suppose it's all subjective.

In reply to timjones:

that is not what I said.  It is your interpretation thereof.

In reply to bpmclimb:

Corbyn's policies are well into the realm of unworkable ideological idealism, just as those of the far-right individuals I mentioned were. So, I suppose that would be my justification. 

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

The thing that amazes me is that having conducted lots of job interviews I know I would not employ either of them to run a small market stall yet millions of people seem to be genuinely enthusiastic  about letting them run the entire country. Madness

It's a shame we can't decide there were no suitable applicants this time around  and re-advertise the vacancy.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

We used to laugh about stuff like this decades ago.

One said that 99% of the population are thick as shit, a bit of cringing occurred, but in the subsequent decades I it seems he has been undisputablely correct.

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

It seems a "lovable rogue" can persuade people to vote for the destruction of the welfare state, the NHS and our civil liberties. Dark times ahead. There will be a resistance but I don't expect to live to see the end of them. 

In reply to Pete Pozman: I suspect hes not that lovable.   My mother will vote Tory even though she has a very low opinion of Boris as she cant stand Corbyn... thanks Daily Mail!

I'm scared of Raab, Gove, Patel - the latter in particular.   But eventually JC will go, Labour will go back to the centre and the Tories will be exposed as the extreme right wing that they are. 

On the bright side at least it's not Australian politics..

In reply to Removed User:

How can you tell it as it is... a crystal ball?

I guess we will see. I predict the tories to lose 8 seats in Scotland (hoping for more) on my logic, as some will have done what I think is best and others will resort to your view.  I think the union will really struggle to survive a Boris majority and hope enough Scots can see tactical voting in the tory marginals (pretty much all of their 14 seats) is the best way to prevent that.

I also have faith in the majority of the people.  I think the referendum vote happened because most of the population saw the outcomes of politics as increasingly dishonest and irrelevant or damaging to them. It's the same reason why I think an independant Scotland is more likely if Boris wins.

In reply to wercat:

Check out the question mark at the end of my question.

Your post was hard to interpret and I was hoping that you might expand on it.

In reply to Offwidth:

Because I live and work in Scotland and take an active interest in its affairs and politics. 

You seem to be under the impression that the electorate is rational and we'll informed. It isn't. Also there have previously been big pushes in Scotland to vote tactically to keep the SNP out with limited success. 

I do think Labour will do better than Polling suggests but simply because they're trying harder than before, knocking more doors and delivering more leaflets while the SNP have had a rather muted campaign. However SLab have a  mountainoto climb to overcome the damage done by Labour's equivocation over Brexit earlier this year and their lack of clarity on opposition to independence.

In reply to timjones:

Ah, Sorry.

As I regard Brexit as a great threat it refers to the Story and Brexit Parties

In reply to bpmclimb:

JC is about as far to the left as BJ is to the right. Roughly equidistant, I'd say.

In reply to Pan Ron:

Don't be ridiculous.  It's not Jon Swninson's decision to overturn the decision, it is the electorate's decision expressed through their support for the LD's policies.  If the LD's get elected then they have a mandate to unilaterally stop Brexit without further ballot.  If they don't get elected they don't get that mandate.  There is absolutely no conflict with democracy in this position.

In reply to wercat:

And do you honestly believe that labour are any less of a threat in that direction?

In reply to timjones:

Well since Labour seem to have no chance of a majority and the party (unlike the tories) is still packed with moderate MPs I think the extremism threat from Boris is way more likely and more serious. It's a struggle to name more than a few significant tory moderates left standing in this election.

In reply to Removed User:

It must have been my mistake as an englishman then then ... its almost like I was thinking for a moment that some other people who live and work and take an active interest in politics in Scotland have very different views from you, depending on what party they support.

It is a shame given your expertise that you can't tell us how many seats the tories will lose. Nevermind, we will all see on Friday. It will be sad for me to see Corbyn resign because his  supporters in Scotland  let in just enough tory MP's for a majority,  by refusing to vote tactically against support for a genuine political monstrosity.

In reply to Offwidth:

So they're not a threat because they're too weak to win?

Surely if you want to remain it's better to vote Lib Dem who have a firm stance for remain?

In reply to timjones:

not if they have no chance of achieving anything in your constituency

In reply to timjones:

If Labour is in distant third in a tory Lib Dem marginal, yes, if a tory might be elected instead of an OK Labour or SNP MP absolutely not. If its a tory safe seat where the candidate who was kicked out if the party is standing as an independent, even John Major says vote for the independant.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/06/john-major-conservati...

"David Gauke, Dominic Grieve and Anne Milton – all of them principled, decent, talented human beings – were forced out of the Conservative party, and are now fighting this election as independent candidates. But let me make one thing crystal clear: none of them left the Conservative party, the Conservative party left them. Without such talent on its benches, parliament will be the poorer, which is why – were I resident in any of their constituencies – they would have my vote in this election."

In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

A mixture of apathy and fatalism in the electorate while/from being ground down by austerity, and spin from him and (some of)  the media about Brexit and Corbyn probably?

In reply to Timmd:

So is your response also fatalism due to those same things, given there is a significant chance Boris could still lose? Its easy to see how 'the people' get pissed of with such simplistic one-size-fits-all attitudes from educated people who should know better.

In reply to wercat:

And if you don't do tactical voting because you believe in voting for the best option rather than playing guessing games of "least worst"?

If we play these sort of games as a nation we will get everything that we deserve. We need to encourage parties that do their best rather than allowing ourselves to be played by those who use "tactical voting" claims to steer us.

In reply to timjones:

And will your warm glow of having done the right thing to zero effect, make up for the many who will lose their livelihoods as companies go bust due to WTO tariffs at the end of next year? Will it make up for the loss of opportunities for our children to live and work in other EU countries? Will it make up for the hopeless predicament of those in the very near future who are unable to afford private supplementary health insurance and have the misfortune to need treatment?

When will people wake up and start realising that this is no ordinary election? Well-meaning messages to political parties are utterly useless right now. Preventing an enormously damaging majority is all that really matters. Everything else can and should wait.

In reply to john arran:

Well said....

Frankie has it right

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/frankie-boyle-election-cou...

Especially how good people can vote for stupid things

"Media plurality is an issue we need to address in this country: the alternative is living in a timeline where, because Corbyn has wonky glasses, in a couple of years you’ll be living in a tent city outside an Amazon warehouse trying to GoFund a tonsillectomy. The Tories calling Corbyn a communist and a threat to national security after handing nuclear power plants to the Chinese is a bit like getting a bollocking off Charles Manson for putting down slug pellets."

In reply to timjones:

Fair enough with PR, or a variant as used for AM/MSP elections - madness for FPTP if you live in a marginal.

In reply to timjones:

FIRST,  "least worst" is a totally horrible American abusage of English and one which I abhor.   Least is the superlative so requires an adjective to complete it, not an American "what is the first word that comes to mind". (this is a shottgun against all who use this abusage, not you particularly, and more against the mock-intelligentsia who propagate it on the radio and tv.  My goat has been got!

In some cases voting tactically is the only sensible choice in a hopelessly outdated and minimally representative electoral system.  The objective is to defeat the most imminent and dangerous threat.  I entirely agree that we desperately need an electoral system that means some representation for all numerically significant groups of voters and thus makes it possible to vote for one's most representative party with some hope of being represented in some way in parliament.

In reply to john arran:

a) my vote will make no difference in our constituency so there will be no warm glow whatever the result

b) as a farmer and therefore business owner that will suffer badly if we move to WTO trading I can see no indication that a labour governement will deliver a better or different end result on Brexit. If this is about Brexit we need to vote for the party that offers the result that we want rather than a wishy washy maybe from a party leader that at best be described as "not being straightforward" on Brexit.

c) Don't you have the slightest suspiscion that the "supplementary health insurance" line is right up there with the "£350m for the NHS" line in the league table of campigning bullshit?

You're right that this is no ordinary election but it is not as simple as you think. Whatever happens we are all being shafted by party politics as all the parties throw out promises that we know they cannot deliver.

The best that we can hope for is a hung parliament. but in many cinstituencies we quite simply cannot alter the result under the current systrem that says that all candidates must follow a simplistic party line. 

In reply to wercat:

Screw your goat you poncey linguistic snob

We need to get away from the outdtaed idea of voting for parties and have the freedom to vote for worthy individuals that are accountable to us.

In reply to Dr.S at work:

Many of us do not live in a marginal.

Party politics will always marginalise some voters and PR will not solve that.

In reply to timjones:

If I don't challenge things like "most bestest" then people who do not know better will think they are correct. It is therefore my duty to shout the outest about them

I don't think we are totally at odds about the need to have representation in elections, just the limits of where it is practicable.

In reply to timjones:

a) then vote Lib Dem or Brexit (but noting the point below) as the only parties who seem keen to change things.

b) You need to take those blinkers off. Labour are offering a vote on remain or a deal on something no harder than a customs union, so farming is safe. This fuss about Corbyn not being clear what he wants is a complete red herring. Boris with his deluded reality on the ease of trade negotiations is a seriously high risk for WTO and even if he comes off with a miracle you will be looking at something like Canada (which is a lot worse than current EU farm trade). Brexit offer WTO before even more deluded negotiations. The farming community are culpable in this: its remarkable how that fuzzy warm pro brexit farming voice has turned to realism and occasionally panic in the news reports from the referendum to now.

c) Ministers in this government have form with porkies and said they wanted such changes in the past and regularly visited and worked with US think tanks who absolutely regard the NHS as an anathema to free trade arrangements... read this plea again about where we are now.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/06/private-contracts-at-the-he...

In reply to wercat:

As we grow and coalesce as a global community language is going to change and we will all play a part in that evolutuion. "Least worst" works and we all understand what it means. "Bestest" is just the language of a buffoon

Why limit ourselves?

That is what every party wants in one form or another. If they don't limit us or soemone else they can't win our votes.

In reply to timjones:

I presume therefore you must live in a very safe Tory seat, which is pretty much the only justification for voting for a party which doesn't have a strong chance of electability in your constituency. 

This election is entirely about Brexit, despite what some leaders would have you believe. From what you say above, your best option would be to try to secure a hung parliament, in which neither party would be able to deliver any kind of Brexit without further input from the people. That's you and me; our say on our future. This is only likely to happen idf people vote tactically.

Surely it must be obvious to everyone that he Tories have been starving the NHS ever since they came to power in 2010? Privatised parts of it, even clinical parts such as mental health, have been growing throughout this time. Why would you expect that trend not to continue? What happens when there are big queues at boarding gates or at airport security checks? People then get offered the chance to pay more and get a faster service. This is precisely what will happen first, for doctors' appointments initially, then A&E, operations, etc. It's simply a natural extension of the same Tory thinking that has already taken us this far.

If no party gains a majority, all manifestos effectively become meaningless historical documents. Delivering on them is no longer an option. If you don't like what's in party manifestos, use your vote to help secure a hung parliament.

Sometimes we cannot alter it, no, which is a real problem with FPTP. Most often though, we have some chance to vote for the opposition party with the best chance of gaining the seat.

In reply to Offwidth:

All I can honestly say is do you really believe you are any less blinkered than those that you blithely tell to "take those blinkers off"?

We are all assailed by misinformation from all sides and talking down to those who admit that they "jusy don't know" does nothing to help!

In reply to john arran:

It's not just a problem with FPTP, it's a problem with the party system. If we move to a party system with PR voting how do you think we can stop under representation of the very different types of environment that deliver safe eats under the present system?

In reply to timjones:

Vote for Pete's party!!!

In reply to wercat:

I have to confess that this has gone straight over my head

Can you explain?

In reply to timjones:

Pete's Eats!

Delivers (mostly) Safe Eats

sorry - perhaps one of the reasons I am pernickety about English is that when I read something I don't have to search for typo's - they literally jump out of the screen/page at me when I look at it, even when looking at a section of text rather than an individual word or line.

In reply to timjones:

Plagiarise the tried and tested German system which has 299 FPTP constituencies. Then about the same number of people are elected from the party lists so that the overall proportion in parliament matches the votes.

There's a threshold of 5% of national vote to enter parliament. Ballot paper has the FPTP constituency choice and second national party list to determine PR within parliament.

Hence parties such as DUP, SF, PC and SNP that would not exceed 5% of UK vote are in parliament due to FPTP seats.

Greens and Brexit/UKIP would exceed 5% so the would be elected from party lists, maybe Greens would retain their sole FPTP seat.

Labour and Tory would win their FPTP seats. Labour and Tory would then be topped up with party list seats so that their final number of seats in parliament matches their votes. 

Supposing one party won loads of FPTP seats and another party got few FPTP seats with the same support but geographically spread. The first party would get few or no party list MPs and the second party would gets lots of party list MPs so the two equally supported parties would have equal numbers in parliament.

No wasted votes except if party below 5% does not win anything under FPTP.

Tactical voting not very relevant  as overall power in parliament is PR.

You can even for example vote for a local FPTP Labour person you like then Tory party list if you want them in government.

Coalitions far more likely as that represents the voting.

It's not perfect but it is far less imperfect than FPTP. I may have some bits wrong too but that's the rough idea.

In reply to elsewhere:

And if you think that perty politics itself is the problem?

It is feeding intolerance and disrespect from both sides and I cannot see how bolstering it's influence is going to make society any better.

In reply to wercat:

Ah sorry, I was racking my brain trying to think of a prominent politician named Pete.

I know that I have to watch out for the dodgy apostrophe on this keyboard when you are around, now it seems that I also have to be wary of plurals

In reply to timjones:

I'm happy to argue the facts with you on your points and sift out clear misinformation. Why not tell me what could possibly go more wrong for farmers with a Corbyn brexit than a Boris brexit. Show me how all those prominent tory libertarians have changed their political clothes and have learned to love the statist NHS.

I agree we had the brexit vote in the first place partly because the political elite looked down on the people and ignored their plight. For all that I dislike Corbyn he was one of the few who seemed genuine about that plight (unless it involved bad behaviour from his allies in the party)

In reply to timjones:

Perty politics - are you from Hull?

There's no such thing as non-party parliamentary democracy? Maybe a micro-state with a 20 seat parliament for a total population of 100,000.

You need to organise a government, that is easier if you have done the first step by electing people who are capable of organising a party when you have a parliament of 650 MPs.

Electoral systems are not a panacea that will make us nicer, but coalitions will train politicians to be more cooperative.

In reply to elsewhere:

Why do you think it is not possible to scale that up?

It seems to me that even the parties themselves are becoming less capable of organising a party

Having a coalition for 5 years was exciting and a move forward.  Unfortunately the voters kicked that idea into the long grass when they failed to appreciate the limitations and compromises that cooperation must involve. The modern bane of social media seems to make compromise less achievable.

The end result is that we have no credible party in the centre to form a coaliton with either side and those of us who have views that sit firmly in the centre take a mental kicking from bigots on both sides.

In reply to timjones:

I'm very conservative (small c) and as I have never seen it done already I think it doesn't work. You can't stop the formation of parties and organisation beats independents, hence it does not scale up?

I agree and I tend to think FPTP is the cause of many of the problems.

In reply to elsewhere:

I can't honestly say that I know but it is the pathetic selection of parties that we have to choose from this time around that is really  eating at me. None of them can elect a credible leader so how the hell can we expect them to organise anything?

I think that FPTP is the easy target but that it is far from the definitive cause of the problems. We probably need to have a look at how social media warps the cross section of news that we see.  As someone who isn't afraid to challenge either left or right what I see tends to flip flop from left wing guff to right wing guff and both can be equally worrying as the poles spring further apart.

In reply to Offwidth:

No, it isn't. I'm looking into tactical voting.

In reply to Timmd:

How do you know many of those people you label aren't 'looking into' it as well? If you think its a close and important election (like I do) why haven't you looked into it long ago and just been urging people to vote the best they can to stop Boris.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/08/observer-view-on-gene...

In reply to Offwidth:

He was asking why people mightn't be engaging with politics towards changing the status quo, so I came up with what I thought seemed like plausible reasons, you're projecting things onto my post which don't apply.

In reply to Luke90:

"Surely in this election, tactically voting for the least worst option is more important than ever."

Not necessarily, it depends where you are, but from the opinion polls it seems that the Tories (Johnson) are going to get the most seats whatever happens. Surely the trick with tactical voting is to try and ensure that they don't get a mandate ie a working majority? It also seems very likely that Labour (Corbyn) have even less chance of getting more seats than the Tories, so if the tactical voting electorate really want to frustrate Johnson's personal ambitions, because that's what's really motivating him, they need to vote Labour, UNLESS there is a strong chance of a Lib/Dem success in their Constituency, in which case vote Lib/Dem.  The important thing is to keep the Tory seats BELOW the magical figure Johnson needs, even if it means voting Labour (your least worse option), don't waste your vote on a party which is a non starter in your area

That would result in another hung parliament leaving the balance of power with the smaller parties who are opposed to his madness, and can continue to frustrate his attempts to "get Brexit done" As everyone with any sense knows, it is going to take years, even decades to "get Brexit done". Johnson's promise here is yet another lie, just like the lies he made to the nation during the referendum. 

In reply to Trangia:

I agree with all of that. Not sure why you've phrased it as if it counters what I was saying.

In reply to Luke90:

Badly phrased on my part. I'm agreeing with you

In reply to Trangia:

I'm glad you said it that way. I thought you hit on something. What many people have convinced themselves is the least worst option is not necessarily the same as the best option to vote to prevent a tory being elected (who will abet the Boris madness as all those candidates who won't, have already been kicked out).