UKC

Will you vote (Scotland)?

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 Le Sapeur 30 Mar 2021

All of the sleaze, forgetfulness, revenge, entertainment, defections aside, how many of you eligible citizens will be voting in the upcoming Scottish elections? 

I think I'll give this one a miss. For the first time I don't see a party I want to vote for. 

Lib Dems. Ineffective and politically weak. Shame.

SNP. Too parochial.

Alba. Trump with a Scottish twang.

Greens. A vote for SNP.

Labour. Getting there, maybe next time.

Conservatives. Only to take votes from the SNP.

40
 LukeEllisWorn 30 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Green / SNP

16
 DaveHK 30 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> Conservatives. Only to take votes from the SNP.

Looking at their literature which came through the door today that's pretty much all the Scottish Tories have got. Vote for us because we're not the SNP. People say the SNP are a single issue party but the Scottish Conservatives are even worse in that regard.

If you're going to define yourself on a single issue at least make it about what you are not what you're not.

Post edited at 21:48
4
In reply to Le Sapeur:

I will. Not sure which way yet.

 DaveHK 30 Mar 2021
In reply to LukeEllisWorn:

> Green / SNP

I'll probably reverse that but not wholly decided yet.

1
In reply to Le Sapeur:

If, in the next five weeks, I fall off the fence on the independence side, then.  SNP/Green. But if I fall on the unionist side, then Con/Lab. If I'm still on the fence then no idea (I'm in a marginal SNP/Con constituency where a first vote for any other party is pointless - unfortunately, because I'd rather not be contemplating voting Conservative)

Post edited at 23:54
3
In reply to Robert Durran:

> I'm in a marginal SNP/Con constituency where a first vote for any other party is pointless 

Let's say you want to stay in the union, it's like having to punch your gran to stop your dad beating up your mum.

6
In reply to LukeEllisWorn:

> Green / SNP

Why not SNP / Green?   Last time all the Green MSPs came from the regional list and almost all the SNP MPs came from the constituency vote.  So you have far more chance of your vote influencing the outcome with SNP 1 / Green 2 than Green 1/ SNP 2.

13
In reply to Robert Durran:

I thought this guy put the question for swing voters quite well:

https://twitter.com/rfhaviland/status/1374432485367418888

This list system is so nuanced I guess you could go SNP #1 / Con #2 for 'I want the SNP in government but the Tories to keep their list seats so they don't have the majority to go for Indy without an s30'.   It might also be the first time in history anyone has voted for both the Tories and the SNP.

4
 girlymonkey 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

What strikes me is Scottish politics Vs Westminster is that it is largely honest. You may not like the people, but we largely don't reward them for blatent lies.

Here's the BBC's fact check on the debate. Mostly comes out as correct. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56583531

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 girlymonkey 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Interestingly, we only seem to have 3 candidates in Stirling, and one is a con so only 2 to choose from. So I have SNP or Libs. I need to look more into libs, I'm not totally against them, but I think SNP more likely. List vote will be greens, always is. 

3
 Sealwife 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Absolutely I’ll be voting.  I have two teenagers who are completely engaged with the process and will be voting too.

My vote will either be going SNP/SNP or SNP/Green.

5
 Offwidth 31 Mar 2021
In reply to girlymonkey:

Hard facts, despite all the disproportionate howling about dishonesty in the media and which we have had to put up with on UKC. In Jon's family terms it's being publicly angry with a family row and ignoring the more powerful and domineering Uncle down the road who is an abuser and a dangerous liar.

Living in England I'd hate to lose the Scots but I would understand it if they voted strongly for Independance parties and eventually left the Union and rejoined the EU. The scare tactics on TV about vaccinations vs the EU is laughable...that ship will have sailed long before any independance vote and was always more to do with UK science and the NHS than any government action. Both those exemplars of what is good about Britain will get a tough ride under Westminster tory governments.

Post edited at 08:10
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 Le Sapeur 31 Mar 2021
In reply to girlymonkey:

> Interestingly, we only seem to have 3 candidates in Stirling, and one is a con so only 2 to choose from. So I have SNP or Libs. I need to look more into libs, I'm not totally against them, but I think SNP more likely. List vote will be greens, always is. 

How about......we only seem to have 3 candidates in Stirling, and one is an SNP so only 2 to choose from

14
 ring ouzel 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Offwidth:

I will be voting and probably SNP/Green.  I dislike the SNP, particularly on environmental grounds (they're rubbish) but they are our best chance to secure independence. Once thats achieved they can disband.

9
 Doug 31 Mar 2021
In reply to ring ouzel:

I've been away for too long to be able to vote, but much as I'm sympathetic to independence there's no way I could vote for Fergus Ewing so if I could still vote  I'd probably vote either Green/Green or Green/SNP unless there are any interesting independents - would I have been able to vote for Andy Wightman if still living in Strathspey ?

edit to add that I've just checked, if still in my old house I could vote for Andy Wightman so he'd be my 'list' choice.

Post edited at 09:09
 tlouth7 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

No love for the Women's Equality Party? I thought they might see a boost given current events.

Don't forget you can check out who is standing in your constituency:

https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/

 LukeEllisWorn 31 Mar 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Why not SNP / Green?   Last time all the Green MSPs came from the regional list and almost all the SNP MPs came from the constituency vote.  So you have far more chance of your vote influencing the outcome with SNP 1 / Green 2 than Green 1/ SNP 2.

Yes, this is what is intend to do.

Interesting that you get 4 dislikes for stating a fact.

1
In reply to DaveHK:

> If you're going to define yourself on a single issue at least make it about what you are not what you're not.

The Tories are "good" at that, mind you Labour aren't much better.  UK culture tends to be to vote someone out, not someone in.  That really could do with changing.

 Harry Jarvis 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

I will vote, but I'm really not sure who I'll be voting for. Almost certainly Green for the list vote, but no idea for the constituency vote (apart from not Tory). 

1
 graeme jackson 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

I've voted labour my entire life but here in clydesdale it might be time to think about voting tactically to reduce the snp lead so could well be Con/Lab (or vice versa if I can't bring myself to vote conservative).  Sadly the Lib Dems are rubbish here otherwise I might have voted for them as willie rennie seems to be one of the few genuinely human polticians out there. 

9
 Graeme G 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Wil I vote? Of course, why wouldn’t I?

Maybe switch off from the idea that politicians themselves have to represent ‘myself’ and how I like to think I present? And ask what do I want the next 5 years in politics in Scotland to look like?

 Le Sapeur 31 Mar 2021
In reply to tlouth7:

> No love for the Women's Equality Party?

No votes either.

1
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> This list system is so nuanced I guess you could go SNP #1 / Con #2 for 'I want the SNP in government but the Tories to keep their list seats so they don't have the majority to go for Indy without an s30'.   It might also be the first time in history anyone has voted for both the Tories and the SNP.

There is no doubt we shall have an SNP led government. It is entirely about whether they have the majority to mandate asking for an s30. I am only considering any sort of Conservative vote safe in the knowledge that they will not be in government. I'm quite amused by the idea of voting Con tactically against the SNP having voted SNP tactically against the Cons in Dec 2019.

4
 Le Sapeur 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Graeme G:

> Wil I vote? Of course, why wouldn’t I?

Lots of reasons. 

Do I need to list them?

Or just apathy.

9
 Point of View 31 Mar 2021
In reply to DaveHK:

Exactly right. That's why I'll be voting Conservative. What other issue matters?

12
 girlymonkey 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Robert Durran:

I don't think you can ever say there is no doubt! 

If you agree with SNP policies other than indy, why not vote for them and then vote no to independence? A vote against them on a single issue just ruins the whole system. 

We need to (collective we, the whole of yeh UK) need to stop voting against things and vote for the policies we actually want! No party is going to tick all of the boxes for any of us, but voting for a party that ticks practically none of the boxes other than "they aren't that other party" is not a good way of voting. 

A vote for SNP isn't a vote for independence, that is what an indyref would be for. A vote in this election is for all policies!

8
In reply to Point of View:

> Exactly right. That's why I'll be voting Conservative. What other issue matters?

Yes, the SNP have made the election a referendum on asking for a referendum. So no surprise that that is what they are getting.

4
In reply to girlymonkey:

> If you agree with SNP policies other than indy, why not vote for them and then vote no to independence? 

That was the view I took in the last GE (and tried to persuade unionist remainer friends to take) when Brexit was the overiding issue. The overiding issue now is independence and I don't think the time is right for a second independence referendum, so effectively asking for one and then voting No is not appealing.

Edit: If there were any chance of ending up with anything other than an SNP government, my thinking would be different.

Post edited at 11:05
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 girlymonkey 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Robert Durran:

The thing is, all reasonable people assumed Trump wouldn't get in, and we wouldn't have Brexit! I don't think it's ever safe to vote against most of what you agree with in the belief that they will have the majority anyway. It is a dangerous game to play

7
 scratcher 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Unashamedly Con / Con

19
In reply to girlymonkey:

> The thing is, all reasonable people assumed Trump wouldn't get in, and we wouldn't have Brexit! I don't think it's ever safe to vote against most of what you agree with in the belief that they will have the majority anyway. It is a dangerous game to play

I really don't think it is in this case. It is completely clear cut in a way Trump and Brexit never were.

2
 girlymonkey 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Robert Durran:

I have to disagree. Politics in the UK scare me at the moment. The hard right keeps coming to the fore and I don't think there is any grounds to get complacent. 

If I felt strongly about staying in the UK, I would vote lab or lib, I couldn't live with myself for voting con. Ever. 

12
 Scomuir 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Why give it a miss?  Taking the trouble to go through the process and spoil your ballot paper on purpose sends a stronger message that may be more likely to influence change.  

2
In reply to girlymonkey:

> If I felt strongly about staying in the UK, I would vote lab or lib, I couldn't live with myself for voting con. Ever. 

In my constituency a first vote for anything other than SNP or CON is wasted. Is it possible to leave my first vote blank or spoilt and just take my second vote for Labour if I decide I'm on the unionist (or at least anti premature referendum) side of the fence?

 girlymonkey 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Robert Durran:

I don't know how that works if you only want to do the list vote. Worth looking into!

We need to take a stand on this whole "wasted vote" idea. If that continues to be the narrative, then it continues to be the reality. If we start to educate people into actually voting for who we want, then maybe votes won't be wasted! You might find plenty agree with you. (You might not z but at least if people voted for the people they wanted, we would know if they agree!)

 Graeme G 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> Lots of reasons. 

> Do I need to list them?

No. You did that in your OP. But just don’t come on here and complain about the outcome, without expecting to be called out on it.

 Graeme G 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Scomuir:

> Why give it a miss?  Taking the trouble to go through the process and spoil your ballot paper on purpose sends a stronger message that may be more likely to influence change.  

How would that work? Surely change would come from people putting themselves forward to be elected on policies they believe in?

That that isn’t the case surely shows people just don’t believe change is possible? I’m not convinced millions of spoilt papers would tell anyone anything, other than “I don’t agree”.

 TomD89 31 Mar 2021
In reply to girlymonkey:

The harder left you go, the further right others appear.

2
 Eric9Points 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Labour.

We need a government focussed on recovering from the pandemic and then using the powers that Scotland has (which have not been used by the SNP) to make Scotland the best country in the UK.

I want our education system repaired.

I want the NHS waiting lists brought back to normal and our Care homes properly regulated.

I want our welfare system properly funded and to treat those unfortunate enough to need with dignity and respect.

I want the young to be helped back into employment and for businesses to be supported so they may recover rather than left to die.

I want Scotland to be a centre of technology for the Green Revolution, not just a windy place where foreign owned companies build and operate wind turbines manufactured in China.

There isn't going to be a referendum in the lifetime of the next Parliament. Electing another government that is obsessed with fighting the UK government, is inept and past its sell by date and who will achieve nothing for Scotland would be a dreadful waste of five years.

4
 Eric9Points 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Labour.

We need a government focussed on recovering from the pandemic and then using the powers that Scotland has (which have not been used by the SNP) to make Scotland the best country in the UK.

I want our education system repaired.

I want the NHS waiting lists brought back to normal and our Care homes properly regulated.

I want our welfare system properly funded and to treat those unfortunate enough to need with dignity and respect.

I want the young to be helped back into employment and for businesses to be supported so they may recover rather than left to die.

I want Scotland to be a centre of technology for the Green Revolution, not just a windy place where foreign owned companies build and operate wind turbines manufactured in China.

There isn't going to be a referendum in the lifetime of the next Parliament. Electing another government that is obsessed with fighting the UK government, is inept and past its sell by date and who will achieve nothing for Scotland would be a dreadful waste of five years.

5
 Harry Jarvis 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Scomuir:

> Why give it a miss?  Taking the trouble to go through the process and spoil your ballot paper on purpose sends a stronger message that may be more likely to influence change.  

No, it really doesn't. The idea that spoiling one's ballot paper sends any kind of meaningful message that any party will act upon is nonsense. 

2
In reply to girlymonkey:

> I don't know how that works if you only want to do the list vote. Worth looking into!

I suppose I could just vote for one of the no-hoper parties for the same effect.

> We need to take a stand on this whole "wasted vote" idea. If that continues to be the narrative, then it continues to be the reality. If we start to educate people into actually voting for who we want, then maybe votes won't be wasted!

In principle I agree, but, on the other hand, we are where we are and  I think there is an argument for using one's vote in a way which actually might make a difference, especially in an effectively single issue election such as this (we ARE going to get an SNP government; it is just a matter of whether they get their s30 mandate or whether the independence issue is put to bed for a few years).

Post edited at 13:07
 Graeme G 31 Mar 2021
In reply to scratcher:

> Unashamedly Con / Con

Interesting that you felt the need to use the adverb?

1
 Fat Bumbly2 31 Mar 2021
In reply to girlymonkey:After the takeover by the far right, the bungling, the corruption, the deaths...

for heaven’s sake pick another Unionist Party.

In reply to girlymonkey:

> The thing is, all reasonable people assumed Trump wouldn't get in, and we wouldn't have Brexit!

I don't think that is true. People with their finger really on the pulse of both the US and UK far from assumed either.

 Jack B 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

I have family south of the border, and my company has a supply chain running all through the UK. I don't have much faith that the SNP could deliver independence and EU membership without making a mess of the border (among other things).  So I'll be voting tactically against the SNP.

Fortunately I live in Edinburgh Southern, so I can do that without having to agonise about whether I would be willing to vote conservative. Labour are close enough to what I want, and our Labour MP has a pretty good rep.  I might vote Lib if I thought they were in the running, maybe they'll get the list vote. I might also have considered green, were it not for their anti-nuclear stance and independence support.

Post edited at 13:34
4
 fred99 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> I think I'll give this one a miss. For the first time I don't see a party I want to vote for. 

I know I'm not a Scottish resident, but I will point one thing out;

If you don't vote, then you can't complain about whoever does get elected.

The right to vote took a lot of hard work to attain, don't ignore it.

 Dave Hewitt 31 Mar 2021
In reply to girlymonkey:

> Interestingly, we only seem to have 3 candidates in Stirling, and one is a con so only 2 to choose from. So I have SNP or Libs. I need to look more into libs, I'm not totally against them, but I think SNP more likely. List vote will be greens, always is. 

Chris Kane is standing for Labour in Stirling is he not?

http://www.stirlinglabour.org/stirling-labour-select-local-councillor-chris-kane-to-contest-the-2021-scottish-parliament-election-in-stirling

 girlymonkey 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Dave Hewitt:

He didn't appear on the list I was looking at. Maybe it's not been updated?

https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections/sp.c.stirling.2021-05-06/stirling/

Apparently official list appears tomorrow so I guess we will see then

Post edited at 13:45
1
 Scomuir 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Graeme G:

Does the current set up tell you anything, when a large number of the electorate don't vote, for whatever undetermined reason which could include dissatisfaction with the existing parties?

I could well be wrong, but I feel that if enough people actually expressed their dissatisfaction by spoiling their papers, it could lead to something different, especially if the number of spoiled papers exceeded those accrued for main stream parties.    

 Scomuir 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

> No, it really doesn't. The idea that spoiling one's ballot paper sends any kind of meaningful message that any party will act upon is nonsense. 

You don't actually know that, but you've just demonstrated why we won't ever find out.

1
 Dave Hewitt 31 Mar 2021
In reply to girlymonkey:

> He didn't appear on the list I was looking at. Maybe it's not been updated?

Even given tactical voting consideration by the parties, it'd be a strange thing if there wasn't a Labour candidate in Stirling. I'm not particularly well versed in local politics here but I've known for a quite a while that Chris Kane is the Labour candidate, and I've not heard that anything has happened to stop that. Looks like the site you linked to doesn't have a full list.

 Harry Jarvis 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Scomuir:

> You don't actually know that, but you've just demonstrated why we won't ever find out.

I'm very sure of that. If I were an MP or MSP and I won my constituency with a few tens of thousands of votes, I would not spend time wondering and worrying about a few tens of spoiled papers. Spoiled papers are just that - spoiled - and discarded without further thought. In the 2016 election, spoiled papers accounted for 0.4% of the votes in the constituency votes, and less than 0.2% of the list votes.

 Graeme G 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Scomuir:

I don’t disagree with the high levels of dissatisfaction and/or apathy. I’m just not convinced that spoiling papers will change that.

 Le Sapeur 31 Mar 2021
In reply to fred99:

> I know I'm not a Scottish resident, but I will point one thing out;

> If you don't vote, then you can't complain about whoever does get elected.

> The right to vote took a lot of hard work to attain, don't ignore it.

That's 2 things.

First, anyone can complain about anything. There are no rules on that one.

Secondly, and more importantly, the right not to vote is as important as the right to vote. A free society offers both options. 

6
 Le Sapeur 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Scomuir:

> Why give it a miss?  Taking the trouble to go through the process and spoil your ballot paper on purpose sends a stronger message that may be more likely to influence change.  

No, that just wastes peoples time.

2
 Le Sapeur 31 Mar 2021
In reply to tlouth7:

> No love for the Women's Equality Party? 

Not enough to vote for them.

1
 Le Sapeur 31 Mar 2021
In reply to graeme jackson:

>  Sadly the Lib Dems are rubbish here otherwise I might have voted for them as willie rennie seems to be one of the few genuinely human polticians out there. 

I voted Lib Dem for over 20 years but as you say, they are now rubbish. 

I might vote Conservative just to annoy Tom.

8
 Babika 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Please vote. 

Every time this type of debate comes up I make the same point which is:

People died in this country to get the vote

People in other countries have sham elections or no elections - they would give anything to live in a democracy 

It's a precious thing and the only message a low turnout sends is that nobody cares. Which gives the winning party carte blanche to do what they want. 

Of course if you really don't like any of the parties the answer is to get involved in politics and change from within!

4
 Scomuir 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

You're missing my point.  I agree, a few 10's of spoiled votes are meaningless.  My point is if all the of the people who couldn't be arsed to vote because they don't believe in any of the parties spoiled their papers, it would mean something if the numbers were significant enough.   

The winning candidate won't give a stuff, as they have won.  Again, missing the point.  It won't serve any purpose to them, as they have in their mind validated their position and policies.  But if the 2nd or 3rd highest count was spoiled papers, it might be enough for others (whether on the ballot paper or not), to sit up and think.

Not expressing your view by not returning your ballot paper may suggest dissatisfaction with the existing parties and their policies, but it could well also say that your favourite program was on the tv, and you didn't want to miss it, or whatever.  

2
 Scomuir 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Graeme G:

View it as a demonstration.  If you see one or 2 people standing in the street, trying to get their point across, they are easily ignored.  If 10's of 1000's of people did it at the same time, it's a different matter.  

In reply to Dave Hewitt and girlymonkey:

I won't be voting Labour because of their stance on independence - it'll be SNP/SNP for me, of course, because I want independence and also trust the party's current incarnation to do an OK job. (If I lived in Highland I'd be very tempted by SNP/Wightman, to be honest).

However, I know Chris Kane and have to say that he's a great guy who really does care, if you're unionist-inclined he'd be a solid choice. Although there's very little chance of him being elected, unless he's also on the list (I don't know whether he is).

3
 Siward 31 Mar 2021
In reply to ring ouzel:

> I will be voting and probably SNP/Green.  I dislike the SNP, particularly on environmental grounds (they're rubbish) but they are our best chance to secure independence. Once thats achieved they can disband.

How many politicians have you witnessed voluntarily surrendering the power they crave? Is it a binding commitment in their manifesto? 

In reply to Robert Durran:

>Is it possible to leave my first vote blank or spoilt and just take my second vote

They're two separate ballots, if you do that your constituency ballot will be rejected but your list one will still be counted.

If you look at the numbers of rejected ballot papers for previous elections, you'll see they're different for constituency and list.

 Harry Jarvis 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Scomuir:

> You're missing my point.  I agree, a few 10's of spoiled votes are meaningless.  My point is if all the of the people who couldn't be arsed to vote because they don't believe in any of the parties spoiled their papers, it would mean something if the numbers were significant enough.   

In order to get that number of spoiled papers, there would have to be a considerable amount of organisational effort. In setting up all that effort, questions would inevitably be asked - "If you don't like what party x, y or z is offering, what do you want?" To which the answer has to be something rather better than "What have you got?" 

And lo and behold, a new party is born. 

> The winning candidate won't give a stuff, as they have won.  Again, missing the point.  It won't serve any purpose to them, as they have in their mind validated their position and policies.  But if the 2nd or 3rd highest count was spoiled papers, it might be enough for others (whether on the ballot paper or not), to sit up and think.

And how would those others know what to reflect on? 

In reply to Scomuir:

> It won't serve any purpose to them, as they have in their mind validated their position and policies.  But if the 2nd or 3rd highest count was spoiled papers, it might be enough for others (whether on the ballot paper or not), to sit up and think.

But they won't know why you spoiled your paper, so it won't really mean anything different from just not bothering to vote.

If you just really want to send them a message, you could just, well, send them a message...

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/

https://www.snp.org/contact/

https://greens.scot/contact

https://www.scotlibdems.org.uk/contact

https://scottishlabour.org.uk/about/contact/

https://www.scottishconservatives.com/contact-us/

2
 Le Sapeur 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Babika:

> People died in this country to get the vote

They died for the right to vote. The right to vote is no different for the right not to vote.

> People in other countries have sham elections or no elections - they would give anything to live in a democracy 

North Korea has sham elections. Voting is mandatory in North Korea.  

> It's a precious thing and the only message a low turnout sends is that nobody cares. Which gives the winning party carte blanche to do what they want. 

No, a high turnout with a large majority gives carte blanche. 

> Of course if you really don't like any of the parties the answer is to get involved in politics and change from within!

I don't like speeding drivers but I'm not about to become a policeman. Just as I'm not about to become a politician.

11
 Scomuir 31 Mar 2021
In reply to skog:

> But they won't know why you spoiled your paper, so it won't really mean anything different from just not bothering to vote.

Not voting takes no effort.  Returning a spoiled ballot paper, whether postal or in person, requires at least some effort. 

5
 Scomuir 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Harry Jarvis:

Maybe an option on the ballot paper to actively reject all the standing parties/candidates would be more effective than the spoiling option.  It might actually encourage people to express their opinion?

BTW, I have no plans to spoil my ballot paper!

In reply to Scomuir:

> View it as a demonstration.  If you see one or 2 people standing in the street, trying to get their point across, they are easily ignored.  If 10's of 1000's of people did it at the same time, it's a different matter.  

More likely that more extreme positions will be adopted.

In reply to Scomuir:

At least in Scotland,Wales and NI for devolved goverNment elections we have PR systems which however imperfect they may be broadly reflect how people actually vote. Unlike Westminster elections. And there seems little appetite  for or interest in that FPTP system changing anytime soon. 

In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

The Blair governments had the ideal opportunity to introduce PR for the whole UK and have a wider look at constitutional reforms like A UK wide Federal system. Blair was not interested and the hard work was done elsewhere eg by the Constitutional Convention in Scotland.  Brexit among other things .mi.ght never have happened. The Tories hate the idea which is why if you  want genuine change you should NEVER vote for them

2
In reply to Scomuir:

> Not voting takes no effort.  Returning a spoiled ballot paper, whether postal or in person, requires at least some effort. 

Sure. But they achieve much the same - pretty much nothing. So you're better either saving the effort, or making just a little more to actually tell the parties what you want, rather than leaving them unaware.

3
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Normally I'm a part-time resident of Scotland so no vote. However on the island I do notice that all the noise comes from the SNP. Notwithstanding that there are plenty of people who hold their council. That's plenty enough votes to dent the SNPs numbers. Either way I'm not convinced there will be a convulsive result, apart from the SNP being the biggest party.

1
In reply to Robert Durran:

>  It is entirely about whether they have the majority to mandate asking for an s30.  <

Surely in the important thing is not having seats majority for the  SNP (or perhaps SNP+Greens) but  having a majority of votes. If over half the votes were for the the SNP then there would be at least be a strong moral case for an independence vote.

However if there was a seats majority with less than half the total vote then that might indicate that most of the electorate did not support independence, and it would then be risky for the SNP to request a referendum anyway. Perhaps the Additional Member Voting system complicates that, but  a majority  of both types of seat plus a majority of votes for both types of member would be pretty indisputable. 

In reply to Le Sapeur:

SNP. I like and respect Kate Forbes, which makes the decision easier in this constituency. Then Andy Wightman on the list vote.

I detest Douglas Ross and his spineless party who, rather than outlining their own policies, are building an election campaign on opposing a party. A hateful little man without a shred of integrity and personality. 

2
 65 31 Mar 2021
In reply to ring ouzel:

> I will be voting and probably SNP/Green.  I dislike the SNP, particularly on environmental grounds (they're rubbish) but they are our best chance to secure independence. 

Same here and same thoughts. Getting out of Brexit Britain and even a snowball's chance in hell of Scotland joining the EU are entirely what guide my choices for now.  If/when that happens, I'll resume basing my voting choices on policies.

1
 DaveHK 31 Mar 2021
In reply to gavmac:

> I detest Douglas Ross and his spineless party who, rather than outlining their own policies, are building an election campaign on opposing a party. A hateful little man without a shred of integrity and personality. 

Stop pussyfooting about and tell us what you really think of him.  

In reply to gavmac:

> I detest Douglas Ross and his spineless party who, rather than outlining their own policies, are building an election campaign on opposing a party.

Of course they are. The SNP is a party whose whole raison d'etre is independence and who have made it quite clear that this election is all about getting an absolute majority as a mandate for  demanding a second referendum. As the biggest unionist party, the Conservatives are quite rightly making their campaign about opposing that. 

5
 Dave Hewitt 31 Mar 2021
In reply to skog:

> However, I know Chris Kane and have to say that he's a great guy who really does care, if you're unionist-inclined he'd be a solid choice. Although there's very little chance of him being elected, unless he's also on the list (I don't know whether he is).

He's no.5 on the list - perhaps the kind of position where chances depend on how many of those above him win constituency seats.

https://labourlist.org/2021/02/revealed-scottish-labour-list-selection-ballot-results/

Incidentally, it's interesting that Nicola Sturgeon is no.2 on the Glasgow list - I'm pretty sure she was lower last time. She's facing Anas Sarwar in the actual constituency and it perhaps suggests she's worried about losing given that Sarwar has local connections as well as being Labour leader. He's also no.2 on the list but down from top spot last time because of evening-up things on the female/male front.

In reply to oldie:

> Surely in the important thing is not having seats majority for the  SNP (or perhaps SNP+Greens) but  having a majority of votes. If over half the votes were for the the SNP then there would be at least be a strong moral case for an independence vote.

I agree, but that doesn't seem to be the way they are playing it.

In reply to 65:

> Same here and same thoughts. Getting out of Brexit Britain and even a snowball's chance in hell of Scotland joining the EU are entirely what guide my choices for now.  If/when that happens, I'll resume basing my voting choices on policies.

Yes, whether I end up voting SNP or Conservative it will be on the independence issue rather than on their other policies (especially the Conservatives!)

1
 ring ouzel 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Siward:

None Siward. Not a single one. However, hope springs eternal!

 IainL 31 Mar 2021
In reply to Offwidth:

Spain will veto any application by Scotland to join the EU as the SNP supported the Catalan seprists.

12
 DaveHK 31 Mar 2021
In reply to IainL:

> Spain will veto any application by Scotland to join the EU as the SNP supported the Catalan seprists.

Not that old chestnut again.

Post edited at 22:28
3
In reply to DaveHK:

He gives me the irrational rage. I shall step away from the phone....

1
In reply to DaveHK:

Sounds like a slightly different Chestnut - Spain not liking separatist movements, or Spain not liking separatist movements in other countries that actively support the break up of Spain?

1
 Jim Fraser 01 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

There is a certain political spectrum that produces best results for human civilisation. We know this because a range of countries in northern Europe have consistently stuck this political spectrum for many decades and have thus become consistently the safest and happiest and most prosperous countries on Earth. 

It is a liberal-social-democratic spectrum and ranges from parties that describe themselves as socialist through to some that describe themselves as liberal or conservative. They tend to subscribe to a mixed economy and support comprehensive public services and social security. 

In Scotland at present, one can easily see that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens place themselves firmly in that range. Labour is there but sometimes one might wonder about their pale blue tory stance. The SNP is definitely in the range because this is how they have managed to survive these substantial periods of minority government. 

Do you want to be safe, happy and prosperous? 

Is that such a hard question? If it is then please seek help. 

If it isn't then it should be obvious what to do. Vote for someone who wants to create a world you could not only bear to live in but prosper in and enjoy.

Post edited at 00:47
1
In reply to Dave Hewitt:

> Incidentally, it's interesting that Nicola Sturgeon is no.2 on the Glasgow list - I'm pretty sure she was lower last time. She's facing Anas Sarwar in the actual constituency and it perhaps suggests she's worried about losing given that Sarwar has local connections as well as being Labour leader. He's also no.2 on the list but down from top spot last time because of evening-up things on the female/male front.

Nicola Sturgeon's constituency isn't close: 15,287 SNP to 5,694 Labour last time.  Sarwar is the one who's big chance of getting into parliament is on the list.

The SNP had complicated rules for choosing list candidates this time AFAIK with 1st spot going to candidates with some specific characteristic like disability or ethnic minority.   Probably they won't get list seats from Glasgow anyway because they'll most likely win the constituencies.

 DaveHK 01 Apr 2021
In reply to gavmac:

> He gives me the irrational rage. I shall step away from the phone....

I don't think it's that irrational. I read an interview with him where he was asked what he would change if he was given a free hand in government for a day. His answer? Stricter laws for travellers. It's not an issue I know much about so maybe it's important to some people or in some places but what a small minded response when given the opportunity to talk about your big vision. 

Post edited at 06:16
1
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> Secondly, and more importantly, the right not to vote is as important as the right to vote. A free society offers both options. 

Australia is terrible tyranny isn't it?

3
 Rob Parsons 01 Apr 2021
In reply to MG:

> Australia is terrible tyranny isn't it?


The idea that compulsory voting leads to an engaged electorate is an unverifiable myth. What it can lead to is people avoid registration in the first place, or - and worse - the 'donkey vote.'

 Dave Hewitt 01 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Nicola Sturgeon's constituency isn't close: 15,287 SNP to 5,694 Labour last time.  Sarwar is the one who's big chance of getting into parliament is on the list.

> The SNP had complicated rules for choosing list candidates this time AFAIK with 1st spot going to candidates with some specific characteristic like disability or ethnic minority.   Probably they won't get list seats from Glasgow anyway because they'll most likely win the constituencies.

I agree that Sturgeon is unlikely to lose the seat, but Sarwar is local (I lived in the constituency - admittedly a long time ago! - when his father was the MP), and is apparently well liked. He wouldn't be standing directly against Sturgeon if he didn't feel he had some kind of chance, at least of putting down a marker as it were and closing the gap considerably. As you say, the SNP aren't likely to get any list MSPs in Glasgow as they'll do very well in the constituencies (they won all nine actual seats last time and added none via the list), but stranger things have happened and they might yet need the safety net of the list. I'd expect that 10,000 gap in the constituency to narrow, anyway.

 Eric9Points 01 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

I see no one is admitting they're going to vote for the Alibi party.

Good.

In reply to Eric9Points:

I've seen them referred to as the Sleepy Cuddle Party.

It would be disappointing if they got many votes. But I've been disappointed before, we'll see.

Edit - I see they have the formerly-Conservative, formerly-Labour, formerly-SNP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh first on their list for my region. Truly, a politician of conviction!

Post edited at 11:07
 Eric9Points 01 Apr 2021
In reply to skog:

> I've seen them referred to as the Sleepy Cuddle Party.

> It would be disappointing if they got many votes. But I've been disappointed before, we'll see.

> Edit - I see they have the formerly-Conservative, formerly-Labour, formerly-SNP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh first on their list for my region. Truly, a politician of conviction!

The Ecksit party as well...

I was in the audience of Any Questions a few years ago and Tasmina was on the panel. Without being partisan she really was truly awful, came over as a complete moron. By the time we were half way through the programme the audience started talking amongst themselves when she started talking.

In reply to Eric9Points:

Heh, aye - I think she's probably done us all a favour with her latest move!

 Jenny C 01 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

I'm not in Scotland, but once when I felt totally disengaged I deliberately spoilt my ballot paper rather than simply not voting.

Spoilt ballots are still counted, but also it prevents anyone from fraudulently turning up at the polling stations and using my vote.

In reply to MG:

> Australia is terrible tyranny isn't it?

So you've met my Mother in law then?

Post edited at 13:27
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Yes. Tactically against SNP/Alba.

12
 Jim Fraser 01 Apr 2021
In reply to Jim Fraser:

> There is a certain political spectrum that produces best results for human civilisation. We know this because a range of countries in northern Europe have consistently stuck this political spectrum for many decades and have thus become consistently the safest and happiest and most prosperous countries on Earth. 

> It is a liberal-social-democratic spectrum and ranges from parties that describe themselves as socialist through to some that describe themselves as liberal or conservative. They tend to subscribe to a mixed economy and support comprehensive public services and social security. 

> In Scotland at present, one can easily see that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens place themselves firmly in that range. Labour is there but sometimes one might wonder about their pale blue tory stance. The SNP is definitely in the range because this is how they have managed to survive these substantial periods of minority government. 

> Do you want to be safe, happy and prosperous? 

> Is that such a hard question? If it is then please seek help. 

> If it isn't then it should be obvious what to do. Vote for someone who wants to create a world you could not only bear to live in but prosper in and enjoy.

A few measurements.

HAPPINESS
18th in the world happiness report: dropped 5 places

SAFETY
42nd in the global peace index behind Mongolia, UAE, Kuwait, Spain, ...
Very safe on many measures but COVID-stupid, no more EU regulations, and we keep dropping bombs on people which allegedly make them angry.

PROSPERITY
29th in the World Bank listing for GNI per capita (2019, so not showing the COVID hit and Brexit hit but still the poorest in NW Europe in spite of the level of resources and industrial history)

---------------------------------------

When you see a notice that say POLLING PLACE, say these words to yourself, "If I get this wrong I could die.""

Post edited at 19:22
2
 kevin stephens 01 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

You should vote, even if for a party that doesn't match your exact specification! Folk in Myanmar and else where are dying because they can't.

2
 graeme jackson 01 Apr 2021
In reply to Jim Fraser:

> A few measurements.

> HAPPINESS

> 18th in the world happiness report: dropped 5 places

> SAFETY

> 42nd in the global peace index behind Mongolia, UAE, Kuwait, Spain, ...

> Very safe on many measures but COVID-stupid, no more EU regulations, and we keep dropping bombs on people which allegedly make them angry.

> PROSPERITY

> 29th in the World Bank listing for GNI per capita (2019, so not showing the COVID hit and Brexit hit but still the poorest in NW Europe in spite of the level of resources and industrial history)

And that's Scotland after years of SNP domination. 

6
 Jim Fraser 01 Apr 2021
In reply to graeme jackson:

No that's what we have to put up with as part of the UK shit-storm and with branch managers of some UK unionist parties not properly collaborating with the minority Government to create programmes consistent with scottish values and ambitions.

5
 Rob Parsons 02 Apr 2021
In reply to kevin stephens:

> You should vote, even if for a party that doesn't match your exact specification! Folk in Myanmar and else where are dying because they can't.


The situation in Myanmar is appalling, but has nothing to do with people not voting. They did vote last November; the military then declared the results of that vote illegitimate, and launched a coup.

1
 MargieB 02 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Yes, Scottish Liberal Democrat. And although I always voted Green Party in the regional vote, that too will  be Scottish Liberal Democrat because the issue is also independence. Lib Dem is closest to my point of view on balance. SNp have strong constituency vote here which means I am against two pro independence representatives ,so no Green Party vote from me this year. The Alba Party are a distortion of he system imo because their manifesto is SNP, their  involvement in writing the white paper is SNP and so they are a replication of the SNP. A rort.

Post edited at 10:59
 Jim Fraser 02 Apr 2021
In reply to MargieB:

> The Alba Party are a distortion of he system imo because their manifesto is SNP, their  involvement in writing the white paper is SNP and so they are a replication of the SNP. A rort.

From what I have seen there is absolutely no love lost between Salmond and Sturgeon.  Alba are definitely not SNP any more than the Lib Dems are Tories.    Alba don't have a manifesto,  they have hoovered in a bunch of people with wildly divergent opinions.   If/when they get a manifesto my guess it will be substantially to the right of the SNP on social issues and possibly less positive about europe.  They may be positioning themselves to be 'Tartan Tories'.

It isn't a distortion of the system to have two pro-independence parties any more than it is a distortion to have two unionist parties.  And lets be honest the unionist parties are pretty much list parties themselves these days.

3
 MargieB 02 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

He did ask to be involved in the writing of the SNP white paper which is a crossover of manifestos that is dubious imo. I agree, That is his confusion but presents a problem to the electorate, no matter what your political persuasion. Seems Nicola Sturgeon sees it all as a problem too.

And lets be honest we don't know the result of May 6 so a comment on" list parties "- just a bit presumptuous.......

Post edited at 22:22
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Thanks for starting the thread. I have just moved into Scotland and know little about the finer points of Scottish politics! 


I cannot vote Conservative because they have ruined this country (UK that is) and in my opinion do not know how to run an economy. I do not measure economic success by the lack of size of my tax bill but let’s not go into this.

 I am instinctively Labour or Green. I understand and am sympathetic towards the idea of Scottish independence but I remain to be convinced that it would be good for Scottish people. If and when Indyref2 occurs it would be great if it could be done intelligently (perhaps following the Swiss style where a document issued which summarises the pros and cons of independence and what it would mean). Brexit should tell us what happens if we approach “Scoxit?” in a haphazard manner.

I am also minded that Scottish independence would condemn the rest of the former UK to indefinite Conservative misrule.

A guarantee that an independent Scotland could join the EU might be a game changer but I doubt that this is forthcoming and I would not believe any pro Independence Party that claimed this.

For what it’s worth my constituency is a Conservative seat (if that is what you folk call it) and believe SNP were second last time out. 
 

Any good sites out there that are reasonably independent in particular about how well Scotland has been governed by the SNP overall because any vote should be governed about more than whether or not you should be independent from the rest of the UK?

PS I love it up here and it has not rained for two whole days! At least not in the borders.

1
 Eric9Points 02 Apr 2021
In reply to Profanitynotsanity:

Austerity on steroids I'm afraid.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e

3
In reply to Eric9Points:

> Austerity on steroids I'm afraid.

Project fear starting up again I see.

All the same bollocks getting wheeled out as in 2014.  'You'll never get into the EU for 20 years",  "Massive Austerity",  "You can't possibly survive without the English giving you money".

There's substantial history of countries leaving the English empire.  Not a single one ever wanted to go back.   I wonder why that is?

13
 Fat Bumbly2 03 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:The English could not have done it on their own. Only educating a tiny proportion of their population. Picking people for important posts from a few families. They needed a partner with a wide pool of talented engineers and administrators to help the chinless wonders. Wonder where that was?

And a vast pool of cheap labour and cannon fodder.... 

3
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> There's substantial history of countries leaving the English empire.  Not a single one ever wanted to go back.   I wonder why that is?

Because they were already stand alone countries? They were entirely independent, no money flowing from the UK treasury, no laws, no shared currency, no physical border with the uk and in an entirely different part of the world. Some even had, have, vastly different cultures, languages, religion.... ? 

9
 Doug 03 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

Ireland ?

2
In reply to Doug:

> Ireland ?

It's an anomaly, it's not some empire acquisition. 

Ireland came under rule from England when it was also invaded by the Normans (1169) who obviously invaded England a 100 years prior. Before this Ireland was mainly under viking rule right through the 8-11th centuries.

It's doesn't fall into the same history as any other commonwealth nation. 

Post edited at 09:17
6
 elsewhere 03 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling

Several colonies and dominions adopted the pound as their own currency. These included Australia, Barbados,[33] British West Africa, Cyprus, Fiji, British India, the Irish Free State, Jamaica, New Zealand, South Africa and Southern Rhodesia. Some of these retained parity with sterling throughout their existence (e.g. the South African pound), while others deviated from parity after the end of the gold standard (e.g. the Australian pound). These currencies and others tied to sterling constituted the sterling area.

In reply to elsewhere:

They were and are still independent though. Just like countries who use the US Dollar. 

Edit. And Scotland could use the uk pound too, but I doubt the treasury will let it borrow against it, or set interest rates. 

Post edited at 09:23
4
In reply to Doug:

> Ireland ?

Technically you could blame the Morwine family, morwine senior wanted power, but Edward (the confessor who didn't really ever confess was king). Morwine's kids, were pretty much rulers of mercia, wessex and northumbria, one of whom was Harold. Edward died, his rightful heir was William in Normandy, but Harold siezed the throne. 

William was a little upset and invaded etc.. then fast forward to the 12th century, Henry 2nd and more goings involving Ireland coming under English rules. 

4
In reply to summo:

I think blaming the people who tried to stop the Normans acquiring the British Isles for the Brutality of the Norman Conquests, and the imposition of a feudal system is a bit harsh!

Anyway, a bit OT!

In reply to summo:

> It's an anomaly, it's not some empire acquisition. 

> It's doesn't fall into the same history as any other commonwealth nation. 

So a bit like Scotland then. 

 Rob Parsons 03 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Project fear starting up again I see.

The difficulty with referencing 'Project Fear' is that, in the context of Brexit, the same ridiculed 'Project' has turned out to be pretty right so far.

In reply to Dr.S at work:

> I think blaming the people who tried to stop the Normans acquiring the British Isles for the Brutality of the Norman Conquests, and the imposition of a feudal system is a bit harsh!

I suspect Morwine weren't entirely centred around what was best for the average englander. 

But, yeah, it's hard to know where we'd have gone without the Normans, much of the earlier changes by Alfred in the 9th century were kind of ahead of their time. 

2
 DaveHK 03 Apr 2021
In reply to Rob Parsons:

> in the context of Brexit, the same ridiculed 'Project' has turned out to be pretty right so far.

Really?

In reply to Robert Durran:

> So a bit like Scotland then. 

Perhaps, although depending when you want to freeze frame history, the Scottish border started north of the Clyde and Forth, with Edinburgh and Strathclyde coming under much larger regions of England etc.. Northumbria was pretty much from the Humber to the Forth for some time.

3
In reply to Robert Durran:

Quite different really, the English invited the Scottish to take over.

 Graeme G 03 Apr 2021
In reply to Profanitynotsanity:

It’s very difficult IMO to cut through the noise that is independence. But most incomers I know speak of how their experiences of public services in Scotland are better than in England. Purely anecdotal unfortunately.

In reply to Rob Parsons:

> The difficulty with referencing 'Project Fear' is that, in the context of Brexit, the same ridiculed 'Project' has turned out to be pretty right so far.

It is the same Tory dickheads that sold Brexit with bullsh*t that are now trying to stop Scottish Independence with bulllsh*t.

Post edited at 11:15
11
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Austerity on steroids will be a political decision. You could also politically choose to raise tax revenues in order to maintain services. And I am fully aware that this option has downsides.

 I will be sickened by another project fear because I have had enough of this over the past 40 years starting with a vote for labour means unions ruining the economy. Yes I am looking primarily at the Conservatives.

 I would rather not hark at the past too much except to understand the situation and learn from the experience! We need to look ahead. Independence will have costs but there will be benefits. Independence is a monumental decision and the effect explained clearly and fairly and the process of achieving this should the Scottish people vote for it properly mapped out before we vote for it. We only have brexit experience to show how not to do it and that starts off with how not to piss the English off apart from beating them at rugby 😄!

1
In reply to Graeme G:

Time will tell but past experience of car parks in the Highlands tending to be free and permitting camper cab overnighting support your statement 😄

we already had a welcome to NHS Scotland in the form of a bowel screening kit 😙

 Naechi 03 Apr 2021
In reply to Profanitynotsanity:

>  I would rather not hark at the past too much except to understand the situation and learn from the experience! We need to look ahead.

Its a fantastic opportunity - an independent state created not through war, genocide, insurrection... can pick the bestest bits from democracies around the world if we wanted.

2
In reply to Dr.S at work:

> Quite different really, the English invited the Scottish to take over.

Aren't you confusing the Union with James 1/6 becoming King of both?

In reply to Profanitynotsanity:

>  I would rather not hark at the past too much except to understand the situation and learn from the experience! We need to look ahead. Independence will have costs but there will be benefits. Independence is a monumental decision and the effect explained clearly and fairly and the process of achieving this should the Scottish people vote for it properly mapped out before we vote for it. We only have brexit experience to show how not to do it.

Unfortunately there is absolutely no sign that the SNP has learnt the lessons of Brexit. They would have a single vote with independence possible on a tiny majority with no confirmatory referendum. 

Because of this madness, I suspect I am more likely to come down against the SNP in May.

Post edited at 14:14
2
 MargieB 03 Apr 2021
In reply to Robert Durran:

ditto. But how do you think this will play out? The electorate will treat may 6 as the referendum-make or break. I think it will see a surge of reactive conservative votes to secure an oust of SNP, ironically. A political narrowing of representation in the Parliament in favour of Conservative thinking because of exactly what you said about the lack of a referendum plus a confirmatory referendum structure, Its a bad approach. And that I would lay at the SNP door- sorry, but I just would. But, one result of years of a different voting system  is that there is not a  two party system in Scotland - if people can  get out of the two party mentality. I'd bet on an outcome like the former scenario and no majority for the SNP anyway, if I'm completely honest.

Post edited at 17:08
2
In reply to MargieB:

Yes, I think that by making this all about a mandate for a referendum, the SNP may provoke a big Conservative vote for the Union - if somebody like me is contemplating holding my nose and doing so, then I expect many others will. My prediction is a reduced SNP number of seats and a stronger Conservative opposition. I hope that such an outcome might make the SNP adopt a less reckless independence strategy which I would certainly support at least as far as a confirmatory vote. 

But I am probably completely wrong!

2
 Le Sapeur 03 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Project fear starting up again I see.

> All the same bollocks getting wheeled out

Like the phrase 'project fear'?

3
 Maggot 03 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Project fear starting up again I see.

> All the same bollocks getting wheeled out as in 2014.  'You'll never get into the EU for 20 years",  "Massive Austerity",  "You can't possibly survive without the English giving you money".

You dismiss it as bollocks in your cavalier fanatical independencer way, but don't you think that you should pause for a moment and consider it for a while that it might have some validity?
Remember, only a few years ago, the post Brexit Armageddon was dismissed as utter bollocks by your average hardcore Leaver. 

5
In reply to Robert Durran:

No, one was the melding together of two countries, the other was an invitation to a foreign head of state to become absolute monarch of a country with which his kingdom had frequently been at war. 
 

if we are talking in terms of colonies and empire then it looks more like Scotland taking over England than the other way around.

2
 MargieB 03 Apr 2021
In reply to Dr.S at work:

If there is a strong Scottish labour and Scottish Lib Dem vote, because these Scottish parties have a new affiliation as regards PR and federalism and thus can work closer together, it could very well be the Scottish politics influencing  and taking a lead beyond Scotland into England. The opportunities for coalescing party policies is possible in the Scottish Parliament and that tends to move the political scene forward faster. So, the tail could wag the dog.

1
In reply to Robert Durran:

> Yes, I think that by making this all about a mandate for a referendum, the SNP may provoke a big Conservative vote for the Union

They aren't doing this.  If you look at the official SNP material it is all about specific policies and spending promises not related to Indy.  Things like laptops/tablets for schoolkids and building houses.  Indry is about bullet point 5 on the list and even then it is getting pushed back out of this year.

I really hate this but Sturgeon is campaigning mainly on non Indy related policies.  A lot of people in the SNP think she is half hearted on Indyref 2 which is one of the reasons we have his nonsense Alba party.

It is the Tories who will not shut up about Indy because they have no policies and are so obviously not competent to run a menage.

4
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

 But whatever they say now, I think they have already made getting an absolute majority and so claim a referendum mandate the big issue of the election in most people's minds.

2
 MargieB 03 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

If Nicola Sturgeon is playing down a referendum, I can only say that is a bit disingenuous of her or maybe these are your thoughts. Look, it is a primary function of the SNP to support independence and  it has been made very clear a referendum is their aim this upcoming term. 

The Alba party didn't start because of any Nicola Sturgeon reluctance to hold a referendum. She has made it abundantly clear. An awol Salmond, just before the election,  intended at first to enhance the chances by an amoeba like split of identicality. The timing, the intent  has been seen as disturbing and so the narrative has been PR changed in order to create a distance because it is realised it is perceived by most as a very shonky constitutional move as regards the PR Regional aspect of our system. {All other parties could perform an amoeba like split last minute to get the PR thing to work for them "better" }- It is a bit obvious. Salmond was/is hacking his way .And his ego fancied joint recognition of leadership of a party he had been prominent in. But I expect a bit of white washing to occur in this world of political twists.

Post edited at 22:00
1
In reply to MargieB:

> The Alba party didn't start because of any Nicola Sturgeon reluctance to hold a referendum. She has made it abundantly clear.

Yes, it did,  there is significant discontent within SNP that Sturgeon didn't use the mandates she already had to run Indyref 2 in the current parliament.   Salmond fans, indy supporters who are angry about Sturgeon not going for Indyref 2 already, and people with a bee in their bonnet about trans in public toilets are the main groups behind Alba.

It looks like Alba is going to misfire, Sturgeon will remain in charge and any coalition will be with the Greens.  So - and I really am not happy about this - it is likely the SNP government after May will be focused on non-Indy policies and Covid recovery.  No doubt they will ask for an s30 for Indyref 2 but when Johnson says no they may well delay and back down again.

1
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> It looks like Alba is going to misfire,

Maybe I was wrong,  Alba have gone from 3% to 6% between the Survation and Panelbase polls with the main difference being the Panelbase guys put 'led by Alex Salmond' next to the Alba party.

The Panelbase poll is interesting, George Galloway's 'All for Union' lot are splitting the unionist vote and the Tories and Labour are heading for disaster on the list.   The extra twist to this is that if polls show that SNP supporters giving their second vote to Green or Alba will work as a tactic more people will do it.

Seats projection (with changes from 2016 election): SNP 65 (+2), Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4), Greens 8 (+2), Alba 6 (+6), Liberal Democrats 5 (-), All for Unity 1 (+1)

SNP: 65 seats

All others: 64 seats

SNP OVERALL MAJORITY OF 1 SEAT

Pro-independence parties: 79 seats (61.2%)

Anti-independence parties: 50 seats (38.8%)

PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 29 SEATS

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2021/04/alba-acendant-sensational-new-panelbase.html?spref=tw

3
 BelleVedere 04 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> Greens. A vote for SNP.

i always think it's funny how people think this, when the stats don't really back it up.  The SNP aren't the party the greens vote most often with, and the greens aren't even the party that votes most often with the SNP (can you guess who is?*).  

I'm a green and as a party that believe in PR, Im happy that we vote with other parties on issues we agree on - that's how grownup democracy works.  

*https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/jworvt/graph_showing_how_often_political_parties_vote/

 Le Sapeur 04 Apr 2021
In reply to BelleVedere:

It's not how often that is important, it's what they vote for.

The Greens are pro independence, therefore given the main issue for most voters will be the independence question, a vote for Green is the same as a vote for the Nats on this issue.

With only 1 in 200 people voting Green in their constituency seats (and 1 in 20 in regional) they are very minor party, although it looks like most of their voters post on UKC.

Thanks for explaining how grownup things work.

9
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> The Greens are pro independence, therefore given the main issue for most voters will be the independence question, a vote for Green is the same as a vote for the Nats on this issue.

I think there are significant differences between voting for the Greens and voting for the SNP or Alba.  Although the Greens are pro-Indy it is not clear to me they will back Indyref 2 without an s30 or any move by the parliament to go beyond the powers given by Westminster.   

The most likely scenario is Sturgeon asks for an s30 and Boris says no.  If Sturgeon depends on the Greens for her Holyrood majority that could mean she will be forced to back off, just like she has in this parliament.   

3
 MargieB 04 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

In an election campaign  when an independence referendum is firmly on the agenda as in 2011, I think we know where we stand with SNP and Alba. Personally, I think the leadership debate showed a shift in stance for the Greens in this election because previously the emphasis was on the right to hold a referendum with a majority as a principle- but this year' s Green Party presentation of themselves is one of a firm agreement with  independence. With poll predictions as above, that is significant. 

The graph above proved what was existent in Inverness from my discussions with  The Green  Party at their stalls in town,- they have the strongest relationship with the Lib Dems on green policy and worked with them.

Post edited at 10:37
1
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

I think for many voters life isn't revolving around indef2. They might be voting for a given party with other motives and that party's independence stance being for or against could irrelevant. 

3
 MargieB 04 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

I can't see how it can't be irrelevant in one's election choice.  It  becomes relevant if the referendum comes firmly on the agenda  of the SNP as in 2011 and it will be  followed through  as  in 2014.  I recall that effect in just having the referendum- the economy had a level of being on hold until the decision. And if you don't agree with the arguments for independence as well but prefer another direction..... We are in a "2011"  moment.

1
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Of course it would suit the independence movement to play down the importance of the independence issue in this election - hope that the unionist vote is split between the more diverse unionist parties rather than marshalled in opposition to the SNP.

3
In reply to MargieB:

It's an election for who will manage the country, its services, every election in Scotland isn't a proxy indef1/2/3/4.... 

5
In reply to summo:

> It's an election for who will manage the country, its services, every election in Scotland isn't a proxy indef1/2/3/4.... 

As long as independence is the dominant issue, it pretty much is until we are either independent or there is some sort of formal agreement not to have another referendum for "a generation".

1
In reply to Robert Durran:

> As long as independence is the dominant issue, it pretty much is until we are either independent or there is some sort of formal agreement not to have another referendum for "a generation".

Is it dominant because the snp don't want to be challenged on how they've been managing all the services in Scotland they are responsible for? 

7
In reply to summo:

Poll in today's Sunday Times has Pro-independence parties on 79 seats(out of total of 129).

Post edited at 13:57
In reply to summo:

> Is it dominant because the snp don't want to be challenged on how they've been managing all the services in Scotland they are responsible for? 

I think it's quite rightly dominant because it really is a massive issue with very far reaching consequences for Scotland. Funny how people in favour of independence seem to think the SNP is doing a good job on other issues while unionists generally seem to think they are doing a rubbish job. I don't think other issues will be properly debated and addressed until the independence issue has been put to bed one way or the other for at least the medium term (a "generation").

In reply to Robert Durran:

Generation, feels like less than ten years at present? 

2
 rogerwebb 04 Apr 2021
In reply to Graeme G:

> It’s very difficult IMO to cut through the noise that is independence. But most incomers I know speak of how their experiences of public services in Scotland are better than in England. Purely anecdotal unfortunately.

Devolution works. It could work even better if the current SG and UK governments actually committed to make it work rather than in the one case being constitutionally committed to it failing (article 2 SNP constitution) and the other finding it an irritant that they don't understand.

Unfortunately I suspect that we are going down the road of polarisation and division. It won't be fun. We will all lose. 

1
In reply to rogerwebb:

The Tories never wanted devolution although ironically it has "saved" them in Scotland thanks to PR. Devolution throughout the UK will only work properly with a full Federal system. However the Tories in particular at Westminster view this as anathema and will never happen under their " watch". The only other option is a Federation of Independent States who may agree to differ but recognise the need for cooperation

1
In reply to rogerwebb:

> Unfortunately I suspect that we are going down the road of polarisation and division. It won't be fun. We will all lose. 

Yes, the independence debate is divisive. Independence would be divisive. Devolution need not be, but, as you say, there doesn't seem to be the will to really make it work. I'd like to see a truly federal UK, but I can't see it happening.

1
In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

>  The only other option is a Federation of Independent States who may agree to differ but recognise the need for cooperation.

That's a good idea. But why limit it to Britain? We could bring the whole of Europe on board.

1
In reply to Robert Durran:

Agree absolutely .

In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

Unfortunately it's the last thing the party in power at Westminster want.

 Graeme G 04 Apr 2021
In reply to Robert Durran:

> We could bring the whole of Europe on board.

What an utterly stupid idea! How on earth would that work? (Wink)

In reply to Robert Durran:

> As long as independence is the dominant issue, it pretty much is until we are either independent or there is some sort of formal agreement not to have another referendum for "a generation".

A formal agreement that puts an indyref off for decades is never going to resolve this.   Any indy party or leader who signed up for that would get replaced.   The path to independence through the ballot box must stay open.   When round about 50% of the population want something badly telling them they can't achieve it through the political process for a generation is a really stupid move.

The reality is that independence will stay the dominant issue until either we get it or far fewer people want it.   Instead of rules about when Indy refs can be held or super-majority requirements the unionists need to think about what they could change to make fewer people want independence.   

A good start would be to reverse the notion of devolution.  Instead of power being owned by Westminster and devolved to Holyrood at Westminster's pleasure they should accept that Holyrood is the legitimate representative of the Scottish people and powers exercised by Westminster over Scotland are on the basis that Holyrood chooses to devolve them to the UK.  So the UK becomes a voluntary union like the EU  rather than an involuntary or colonial one.

7
 rogerwebb 04 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> A formal agreement that puts an indyref off for decades is never going to resolve this.   Any indy party or leader who signed up for that would get replaced.   The path to independence through the ballot box must stay open.   When round about 50% of the population want something badly telling them they can't achieve it through the political process for a generation is a really stupid move.

> The reality is that independence will stay the dominant issue until either we get it or far fewer people want it.   Instead of rules about when Indy refs can be held or super-majority requirements the unionists need to think about what they could change to make fewer people want independence.   

> A good start would be to reverse the notion of devolution.  Instead of power being owned by Westminster and devolved to Holyrood at Westminster's pleasure they should accept that Holyrood is the legitimate representative of the Scottish people and powers exercised by Westminster over Scotland are on the basis that Holyrood chooses to devolve them to the UK.  So the UK becomes a voluntary union like the EU  rather than an involuntary or colonial one.

I was with you until the last sentence. The UK is a voluntary union, we had a referendum on that in 2014. It is very hard to follow the logic of Scotland being a colony of the UK. It is an integral part of it. Without Scotland no UK.

Although I like the idea in your last paragraph I think it is too late for that without first going through the trauma of another referendum after which the likely close result should make both sides think again and actually get serious about constitutional reform and beyond simplistic independence v union manichean divide. The whole of the island of Great Britain needs reform of its governance. Sticking a border down the middle or denying there is a problem will make life poorer in all senses for everyone. 

2
 MargieB 04 Apr 2021
In reply to Robert Durran:

Well, for a start you are talking about it and Tom has broached a federalist scenario. It is a slow process in a democracy with sometimes great shifts but our system can reform. We talk now {because of Covid ironically, }in terms of  a four nation approach- never heard that a few years ago. Cultural changes shift political expectations as well. I even think the different relationship with Europe has thrown us heavily to look at our own system  with a more critical eye -rather than rely on the counter- balance of the European Union to offset our political anachronisms. We can emulate systems of other countries now { if we choose to,} perhaps more nimbly than before- a little like the covid vaccine manoeuvre- An aspect of Corbynism that may very well have been intuitively spot on as he saw an opportunity. The conservative definition of that opportunity doesn't fit the bill for me, but other party positions are also available. That is how I see things moving forward positively. 

Post edited at 18:14
2
In reply to MargieB:

U nfortunately the Tories are going in the opposite direction.

In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

Thatcherism started the break of Britain ,Boris and his cohorts will complete the job.

2
 ScraggyGoat 04 Apr 2021
In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

And the SNP will play fast and loose with social cohesion and divide the country Balkans style, what a mess.

7
In reply to ScraggyGoat:

Don't blame me I've, never voted Tory.

1
 MargieB 04 Apr 2021
In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

  • No, the Tories are going towards a 4 nation approach and a sort of federalism but characterising it in a right way { not strongly centre left or green IMO} They are seeing the opportunity and independence may forward them as a reactive FTP constituency vote comes into play and the whole mentality reactively shifts into a two party mentality. But it could be characterised differently. There are other political choices in Scotland. You may hate to here this, but Scottish Conservative Party has quite a high level of party autonomy they would exercise using the devolved Scottish Parliamentary powers.
Post edited at 18:53
2
 MargieB 04 Apr 2021
In reply to MargieB:

But, I should add, it is also " yes" to the idea the conservatives are going the other way-  there  is the fight over the placement of EU powers returning to UK and there are choices here too as to where they are placed, with the conservatives  centralising in Westminster much more than other parties. 

Post edited at 19:34
In reply to MargieB:

The promise of constitutional change in England  seems distinctly lacking. Federalism for all of UK  becomes a non starter without this. As I said earlier the Labour governments of 1997-2011 were  the window of opportunity for this. Only partially fulfilled through devolution

 Eric9Points 04 Apr 2021
In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

> The promise of constitutional change in England  seems distinctly lacking. Federalism for all of UK  becomes a non starter without this. As I said earlier the Labour governments of 1997-2011 were  the window of opportunity for this. Only partially fulfilled through devolution

Labour are seriously considering constitutional change for the UK. Possibly abolishing the House of Lords and replacing it with a Senate of elected representatives. The UK split into perhaps ten states each one electing senators to the senate. I suspect the idea goes down a lot better outside of England than within so the issue Labour has is whether it risks losing the next GE over what is an issue that, compared to many others, is one of secondary importance.

In reply to Eric9Points:

I'm afraid you're right about it being an unlikely vote winner in England.  So we're back to square 1 again. I 'm an SNP member who voted Labour in the  1997 election(while still an SNP member). . Had a lot of time for Donald Dewar and some of his colleagues. The late Sam Galbraith was a former climbing companion

Post edited at 20:36
 MargieB 04 Apr 2021
In reply to Eric9Points:

Saying things won't happen because they haven't happened historically seems a waste of time in politics- anything can happen with cultural shifts. Living in the present and future politically seems appropriate imo. Your view on reform is contemporary, your lack of confidence in it  seems based on historical events which may not repeat.

A very contemporary evidential political event was our local election for a candidate on the unfortunate death of another. What an odd result! Very unlike the contemporary poll. Equal numbers voted for the two edges of politics,  SNP and Conservative. The greatest number did not vote for either and a third option was chosen, So neither SNP nor Conservative. What that says about an electorate's current state of mind seems at odds with the current poll...... and very interesting.......

the 2019 election result was SNP majority and a Conservative a strongish second.

Post edited at 22:25
In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

> Don't blame me I've, never voted Tory.

You'd need to be at least 66 years old to be alive the last time Scotland voted Tory.

There are 10x as many English voters as Scottish ones and we will not get the government we vote for until we are independent.

10
In reply to rogerwebb:

> Although I like the idea in your last paragraph I think it is too late for that without first going through the trauma of another referendum after which the likely close result should make both sides think again and actually get serious about constitutional reform

The promises made to secure the NO vote in 2014 in the so called vow were abandoned the day after the referendum.  

Just another lie in a long history of lies, from classifying the McCrone report to bribing the Scottish negotiators to secure the treaty of union.

7
In reply to MargieB:

>You may hate to here this, but Scottish Conservative Party has quite a high level of party autonomy they would exercise using the devolved Scottish Parliamentary powers.

PSML

They do exactly what they are told and kiss arse for a seat in the House of Lords when they think they will lose their seat.

If they had autonomy the Tory MPs Scotland sent to Westminster who made clear their support for the EU would have voted that way.  They would be taking their instructions from Edinburgh instead of London.  No chance.

8
 Jim Fraser 05 Apr 2021
In reply to rogerwebb:

> ...  ...  Without Scotland no UK.

That is a consitutional fundamental that a huge proportion of the UK population are simply not getting.

> Although I like the idea in your last paragraph I think it is too late for that without first going through the trauma of another referendum after which the likely close result should make both sides think again and actually get serious about constitutional reform and beyond simplistic independence v union manichean divide. ...

The English electorate have been kept ignorant by their masters and somehow believe in some kind of feudal fate that excludes constitutional reform. 

> ... The whole of the island of Great Britain needs reform of its governance. Sticking a border down the middle or denying there is a problem will make life poorer in all senses for everyone. 

I disagree. It looks like England is going down. Possibly unstoppably. Who wants to go down with it? Not Ireland, not Wales, not Scotland. 

For generations, and increasingly so recently, the UK has prevented its people experiencing many of the best aspects of being a citizen of a modern state with a high value developed economy. Amongst its neighbours, that are amongst the happiest, safest and most prosperous in the world, the UK remains the dunce in the corner, never reaching its full potential and turning away every time the promised land comes into sight. 

103 years and waiting. I still wait to take delivery of the "land fit for heroes to live in" that David Lloyd George promised my grandfather's generation. 

8
In reply to Jim Fraser:

> For generations, and increasingly so recently, the UK has prevented its people experiencing many of the best aspects of being a citizen of a modern state with a high value developed economy. Amongst its neighbours, that are amongst the happiest, safest and most prosperous in the world, the UK remains the dunce in the corner, never reaching its full potential and turning away every time the promised land comes into sight. 

I wouldn't underrate the uk. Have you ever been to the less glamorous parts of Italy, spain, France... you'd be forgiven for thinking you weren't in Europe at all. 

No where in Europe is booming, it's just that all the problems and data are masked by covid, or can be blamed on it. In various quarters in 2019 so many countries were borderline recession, including the big players like Germany. 

> 103 years and waiting. I still wait to take delivery of the "land fit for heroes to live in" that David Lloyd George promised my grandfather's generation. 

Perhaps if the uk had lost those wars it would have worked harder to recover, no sense of entitlement etc. However if we'd lost i don't think things would have gone so well!!

2
 rogerwebb 06 Apr 2021
In reply to Jim Fraser:

> That is a consitutional fundamental that a huge proportion of the UK population are simply not getting.

> The English electorate have been kept ignorant by their masters and somehow believe in some kind of feudal fate that excludes constitutional reform. 

> I disagree. It looks like England is going down. Possibly unstoppably. 

Really? Why? Is it too wee, too poor, too stupid? I think you are going into hyperbole there. 

> For generations, and increasingly so recently, the UK has prevented its people experiencing many of the best aspects of being a citizen of a modern state with a high value developed economy. Amongst its neighbours, that are amongst the happiest, safest and most prosperous in the world, the UK remains the dunce in the corner, never reaching its full potential and turning away every time the promised land comes into sight. 

Again not convinced, while I agree that leaving the EU was unwise I don't see dramatically better social conditions in the rest of Europe. Norway has food banks, France has ghetto issues, Poland has problems with the far right, a lot of Europe has diversity issues. Just like England, just like Scotland, just like Europe, just like the World. 

> 103 years and waiting. I still wait to take delivery of the "land fit for heroes to live in" that David Lloyd George promised my grandfather's generation. 

I don't think that worked out well for the rest of Europe either. 

Beveridge and the Attlee government was a much better effort. 

 Jim Fraser 06 Apr 2021
In reply to rogerwebb:

> Really? Why? Is it too wee, too poor, too stupid? I think you are going into hyperbole there. 

Struggling for a nice way to put it so it just comes back to too stupid. Look at what they have elected. Is there any sign that people yet understand the results of what they have done? Even after 126,000 COVID-19 deaths and NI rioting? 

5
In reply to summo:

> No where in Europe is booming, it's just that all the problems and data are masked by covid, or can be blamed on it. In various quarters in 2019 so many countries were borderline recession, including the big players like Germany. 

You can't expect a boom in the middle of a pandemic, but the EU is doing a lot better than the UK.

https://twitter.com/DickWinchester/status/1379077622278328324

Even the vaccine thing is turning around.   UK supplies from India getting cut back due to Indian export controls and the EU bringing a lot more local manufacturing on stream and really gearing up.

Astonishing that the UK purchasing geniuses (which we are told are so much cleverer than those who draft contracts for the EU) didn't think that as long as the 'Oxford' vaccine IP was getting licensed to manufacture in India and the UK was supposed to get a chunk of the production it might be worth getting the Indian government to make a formal commitment not to impose export controls on supplies to the UK.

9
 rogerwebb 06 Apr 2021
In reply to Jim Fraser:

> Struggling for a nice way to put it so it just comes back to too stupid. Look at what they have elected. Is there any sign that people yet understand the results of what they have done? Even after 126,000 COVID-19 deaths and NI rioting? 

Are either of these facts (although to be pedantic deaths in England are 112000 and less pedantically NI isn't part of England) relevant to England's ability to survive?

Some might despair over the direction Scotland is going in. That doesn't make the people who support that direction stupid, unwise maybe but not stupid. I can't say I am a massive fan of  the UK government either, that doesn't mean it's supporters are stupid. They have a different point of view, like you I would like them to change it. We are unlikely to succeed in that by calling, or thinking, them stupid. 

All democratic countries sometimes elect poor leaders with poor results. 20th century and 21st century history is littered with examples. Usually democratic countries recover from such aberrations. A quick look around Europe shows you both historic and current examples of that.

1
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> You can't expect a boom in the middle of a pandemic, but the EU is doing a lot better than the UK.

Better, Boom my $%#@, last quarter of 2019(pre covid) Germany was 0.1% off being officially in recession.

> Even the vaccine thing is turning around.   

Yeah. The eu is onto the over 75s now!!! They pushed the goal posts for under 50s from midsummer, back to the end of summer.

> Astonishing that the UK purchasing geniuses (which we are told are so much cleverer than those who draft contracts for the EU...

They aren't cleverer, they just got on with their job, delays cost lives.

4
 Le Sapeur 06 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Even the vaccine thing is turning around.   UK supplies from India getting cut back due to Indian export controls and the EU bringing a lot more local manufacturing on stream and really gearing up.

Turning around in stunning fashion. Almost 14% of French have been vaccinated. How many in UK? EU 16% UK 53%. The EU is looking great there. 

And that is exactly where Scotland would have been if we had left the UK and joined Europe. 16%. England would have closed its border to keep us out, and quite rightly. Given the death rate in Scotland roughly parallels the UK we would now be seeing extended lockdowns and possibly higher death rates. 

I'm guessing the India supply issue is a fault of those horrible Conservatives?

4
 Le Sapeur 06 Apr 2021
In reply to Jim Fraser:

> Amongst its neighbours, that are amongst the happiest, safest and most prosperous in the world, the UK remains the dunce in the corner,

Have you ever left the UK? In my experience the people who complain about how bad the UK is are the ones who have never experienced the rest of the planet, or even the poor areas of Europe, Western or otherwise. 

6
 Graeme G 06 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> England would have closed its border to keep us out

Your argument was sound until you said that.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lockdown-uk-tourists-flights-coming-in-b1826845.html

Post edited at 21:54
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> Turning around in stunning fashion. Almost 14% of French have been vaccinated. How many in UK? EU 16% UK 53%. The EU is looking great there. 

Maybe, but the EU has 107 million doses already delivered and 360 million scheduled over the next 3 months.  Population 446 million.    

Vaccination rate in the UK is about to fall dramatically because they were betting on vaccine from India which the Indians have put an export ban on.    For all the UK press bang on about how smart the Tories were because Handcock watched a movie it is actually the EU that has brought up vaccine manufacturing within its borders and the UK which is dependent on imports from the EU and India.

7
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Maybe, but the EU has 107 million doses already delivered and 360 million scheduled over the next 3 months.  Population 446 million.    

I'd measure it by results, not aspiration. 

In reply to summo:

> I'd measure it by results, not aspiration. 

Let's wait and see in July who's got all adults vaccinated.   

The situation has pivoted since the first few months of this year.  The number of vaccinations per month in the UK is forecast to fall quite substantially because they aren't getting the vaccine from India.  The number of vaccinations per month in the EU is forecast to increase dramatically based on their own production.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-vaccine-doses-uk-coronavirus-b1827528.html

Post edited at 07:32
5
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> Turning around in stunning fashion. Almost 14% of French have been vaccinated. How many in UK? EU 16% UK 53%. The EU is looking great there. 

It's not over.  The UKs strategy is dependent on imports.

> And that is exactly where Scotland would have been if we had left the UK and joined Europe. 16%. England would have closed its border to keep us out, and quite rightly. Given the death rate in Scotland roughly parallels the UK we would now be seeing extended lockdowns and possibly higher death rates. 

It's pretty obvious where Scotland would be if it was in the EU and not the UK.  Pretty much the same place as Ireland.   Less deaths per million and a smaller economic hit than the UK.  And we'd be rapidly scaling up a vaccination program based on Pfizer.

> I'm guessing the India supply issue is a fault of those horrible Conservatives?

They keep telling us what brilliant negotiators they are and that it is the EUs fault that AZ are f*cking them over.

Well, they sent the recipe for AZ vaccine to India for volume manufacturing on the expectation they'd be able to buy a lot of it.  Now the Indians have put on export controls and they can't.

If the Tories want to slag off the EU's contract writing ability then they need to admit they were pretty stupid not to get a formal undertaking from the Indian government that there would be no export controls on supplies to the UK when they were negotiating their access to the IP.

We keep getting told the EU are b*stards for even thinking about export controls but when our preferred partner actually imposes them nobody says a word.  The Tories are getting a ridiculously easy ride in the press.

9
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh: 

>  The number of vaccinations per month in the EU is forecast to increase dramatically 

That's not what the swedish health agency is saying. Their original forecast of under 50s being vaccinated by midsummer (21/22 June), has been changed to the end of September.

Accept it, your beloved eu won't ever pass the uk, it could catch up eventually, but certainly not in the next 6 months. 

The uk will likely be offering booster vaccinations for new mutations, before the eu has finished all adults with the original. 

3
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> It's not over.  The UKs strategy is dependent on imports.

Not really there's production coming online that's entirely based in NE England. Including part of the production in the Barnard Castle gsk plant. 

1
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> If the Tories want to slag off the EU's contract writing ability then they need to admit they were pretty stupid not to get a formal undertaking from the Indian government that there would be no export controls on supplies to the UK when they were negotiating their access to the IP.

I think to get much out of India is a miracle. They are incredibly protective of their market and industries. It must be the hardest place in Asia for any western company or country to deal with. 

 Naechi 07 Apr 2021
 Jim Fraser 07 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

> Have you ever left the UK? In my experience the people who complain about how bad the UK is are the ones who have never experienced the rest of the planet, or even the poor areas of Europe, Western or otherwise. 

It is embarrassing telling people what I do for a living and they think I must have translated it wrong because I don't seem wealthy enough. That's right folks, I'm not wealthy enough because I'm British.

3
 Dave Hewitt 07 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

Some enthusiastic Alba support here:
youtube.com/watch?v=8iOlfFGUUec&

In reply to summo:

> I think to get much out of India is a miracle. They are incredibly protective of their market and industries. It must be the hardest place in Asia for any western company or country to deal with. 

Pretty easy in this case, they just needed to make it a condition of access to the vaccine IP.

3
In reply to summo:

> The uk will likely be offering booster vaccinations for new mutations, before the eu has finished all adults with the original. 

The UK is going to need boosters before the EU because its been using far more AZ.

Isn't it amusing the way the 'Oxford Jab' became 'Astra Zeneca' and then 'AZ'.    Next thing they'll notice the Astra part is Swedish and they'll be calling it the Swedish jab.

8
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> The UK is going to need boosters before the EU because its been using far more AZ.

Any angle to run down the uk possible? 

That's just speculation, there will be new variants emerging all the time, probably many in the largely unvaccinated eu population, the risk is a mutation which evades all vaccines. So no one can count their chickens on that front yet. 

2
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Certainly the SNP cannot manage to say the word "Oxford" as it is in their eyes part of the English imperialist machine.

6
In reply to nickinscottishmountains:

My English wife went to Oxford uni and votes SNP

Post edited at 13:32
1
In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

I was talking about the SNP politicians.

1
In reply to nickinscottishmountains:

> Certainly the SNP cannot manage to say the word "Oxford" as it is in their eyes part of the English imperialist machine.

I'm holding out for the superior Cambridge vaccine.

In reply to Robert Durran:

We're all true blues at heart , Robert.!

In reply to Robert Durran:

That'll be fine with SNP..... Philby and all that!😜

4
In reply to Robert Durran:

I wonder if George Galloway and Alex Salmond have had the Sputnik vaccine? Courtesy of RT.  

 Fat Bumbly2 08 Apr 2021
In reply to nickinscottishmountains:Current bunch of traitors serving Russian interests have more of an Oxford feel

1
 Le Sapeur 08 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Isn't it amusing the way the 'Oxford Jab' became 'Astra Zeneca' and then 'AZ'.    

I can't stop laughing. Imagine Oxford developing it' Astra Zeneca selling it and as Astra Zeneca is a bit of a mouthful reducing it to AZ. Hilarious.

Inderef2. 

s30

4
 Le Sapeur 08 Apr 2021
In reply to nickinscottishmountains:

> Certainly the SNP cannot manage to say the word "Oxford" as it is in their eyes part of the English imperialist machine.

They really struggle with the word "Conservative". Sturgeon always goes for the "Torees".

3
 alastairmac1 08 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

SNP both votes. For a progressive, socially just and democratic future in Europe. And to shake off the last discredited ties of a failing "British" project and state. All the latest polling shows a thumping majority for independence for all those under 60....time to vote for the future not the past and for the generations to come. 

5
In reply to nickinscottishmountains:

> Certainly the SNP cannot manage to say the word "Oxford" as it is in their eyes part of the English imperialist machine.

Oxford Oxford Oxford.

It's not a bad university, the problem is the English have a completely inflated view of its standing mostly because a disproportionate amount of the London political/media/landowning establishment went there as undergraduates.

3
In reply to alastairmac1:

> time to vote for the future not the past and for the generations to come. 

Isn't wanting to wind the clock back to pre 1603 or 1707 also the past? Why stop there, why not wind back even further? 

4
 scratcher 08 Apr 2021
In reply to alastairmac1:

There's a dark, dark part of me that would like to see independence happen just to see the nationalists held accountable for the ensuing disaster they'd created.

The rest of me realises Scotland's most vulnerable would suffer most and would therefore happily forego the spectacle, however entertaining it might be.

9
 graeme jackson 08 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

>  the problem is the English have a completely inflated view of its standing 

Really? I'm English and don't. In fact I don't know anyone either side of the border that has any view on the place at all.  Isn't it time you stopped with your xenophobic generalisations?

2
In reply to summo:

> Any angle to run down the uk possible? 

It turns out that while insisting AZ did not ship any vaccine from the UK to the EU because of their exclusivity deal the Tories are completely OK with them shipping 700,000 doses to Australia.   Australia still has very low infection rates while the English variant is filling up ICUs in the EU.

The UK program is scaling back because they have 500K doses a month less than they thought and  they still send 700k doses to Australia.    The EU sent us 21 million doses when we were having a tough time and they get nothing.  The way the Brexiteers are behaving is shameful.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/08/uk-ministers-silent-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-shipment-australia-eu-blocked-export

3
 Harry Jarvis 08 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> It's not a bad university, the problem is the English have a completely inflated view of its standing mostly because a disproportionate amount of the London political/media/landowning establishment went there as undergraduates.

That and the fact that it is regularly cited in the top 5 universities in the world. Not bad ...

2
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> It's not a bad university, the problem is the English have a completely inflated view of its standing mostly because a disproportionate amount of the London political/media/landowning establishment went there as undergraduates.

It's hardly a surprise that people from the South East are over represented in a local University? 

Are Scots over represented at St Andrews, Glasgow, Herriot-Watt, Aberdeen etc.? I appreciate the recent figures could be skewed due to limiting free places to Scots, and unlimited places for fee paying non Scottish students. 

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

>    The EU sent us 21 million doses

The eu doesn't own the vaccine, the ip, or pharma companies.

The uk ordered a vaccine from an international company with premises around the world. 

1
 Graeme G 08 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

> Isn't wanting to wind the clock back to pre 1603 or 1707 also the past? Why stop there, why not wind back even further? 

I’ve previously answered that for you. Now you’re just baiting. Not an honourable attribute.

 alastairmac1 08 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

I'm afraid that it's the Westminster government and those that support it that are trying to turn the clock back. As they cling on to memories of an empire that they've lost and a redundant union that's past its sell by date. No matter how many flags are wrapped around it the "British" project is coming apart at the seams and particularly the younger generation in Scotland are looking towards the future. It's a choice for the Scottish people and Westminster has never felt more alien, distant or out of touch with the values and aspirations of the majority of Scots. The six remaining counties of Ireland next, then I hope Wales. 

Post edited at 16:57
2
 Graeme G 08 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

> Are Scots over represented at St Andrews

Doubt it. It’s jokingly known as the one where all the Oxford and Cambridge rejects attend.

 ScraggyGoat 08 Apr 2021
In reply to scratcher:

I can see the why it might appeal to some, but I'm rather more pessimistic the whole debacle is going to create division & polarisation, risking social cohesion (just look at what happen during IndyRef1, Brexit, and currently in Northern Ireland), and thats before we get to the muddle of disentangling and recreating the institutions of the state, how the border with the UK will work (or not), pensions, currency (and at what rate we borrow), whether we can rejoin the EU, and if we do what then again happens at the border, personal and business tax rates (how do we fund our society without driving employment and investment south), moving assets between Scotland and England.

I'm sure we can solve all of that but at a price of division, a lot of time and huge uncertainty, when do we really need to? Holyrood already has huge devolved powers which it can use to make significant changes should it want and we want....................

4
In reply to summo:

> It's hardly a surprise that people from the South East are over represented in a local University? 

It isn't surprising at all.   I didn't say it was surprising.

The UK has centralised power in London, these universities are the local universities for London and have a disproportionate number of graduates in the London ruling class and that gives them disproportionate status, influence and funding.

Look at the picture of the Bullingdon club with Boris and Osborne and Cameron and a bunch of rich bankers and landowners and his pals or look at how many of the cabinet ministers were at Oxford on the same courses as people who are now senior journalists in the BBC or the larger newspapers.     These powerful people are biased towards their alma mater and it consistently feeds into the narrative of Oxford being special.

4
 alastairmac1 08 Apr 2021
In reply to scratcher:

Nice....I assume because Scotland is too small and poor to govern our own country? I think we'll take our chances along with countries like Denmark, Norway, New Zealand and Ireland....rather than by tied to what's left of the UK after Brexit. But I hope that if Scotland regains its independence that it might help propel England back towards the values and liberalism that it was once known for. And that we can be good and respectful, neighbours, friends and trading partners. 

2
In reply to summo:

> >    The EU sent us 21 million doses

> The eu doesn't own the vaccine, the ip, or pharma companies.

The US doesn't own Pfizer, India doesn't own the Serum institute, the UK doesn't own the AZ factory in the UK.  They are all controlling where the vaccine manufactured on their territory goes, only the tool used to achieve it is different - defense production act, export controls, exclusivity contract.

> The uk ordered a vaccine from an international company with premises around the world. 

The UK government insisted on an exclusivity deal on production from AZ's UK factory.   This is why AZ refused to supply the EU in violation of its contract with the EU.  The mechanism for the UK government deciding which countries are exported to is different but the outcome is the same. 

The reason Australia gets some - even at the expense of the UK - and the EU does not is glaringly obvious.  These c*nts are using vaccine as a tool for their Brexit bullshit.  They are building relationships with India and Australia and intentionally damaging the relationship with the EU.

When you look at what is going on with Australia it becomes increasingly obvious why a bunch of people with backgrounds in Hedge Funds would buy in excess of 450 million doses for a country with 65 million people.   The extra doses are trading cards for Brexit diplomacy.  Flame me now and wait four or five months and watch it happen.

7
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Scotland has centralised power in Edinburgh

That's what happens in capital cities.

They are moving departments out to Wolverhampton and Darlington. How much have the snp moved out to the Highlands and Islands? 

2
In reply to Graeme G:

> Doubt it. It’s jokingly known as the one where all the Oxford and Cambridge rejects attend.

And Durham if they are only just slightly short on grades or blow the interview. 

In reply to Graeme G:

> I’ve previously answered that for you. Now you’re just baiting. Not an honourable attribute.

It just all this talk of looking forward, many are harking about events 300 or 400 years ago. 

2
 Graeme G 08 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

> It just all this talk of looking forward, many are harking about events 300 or 400 years ago. 

I know. But you’re lowering yourself. IMO. 

 Graeme G 08 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

> And Durham if they are only just slightly short on grades or blow the interview. 

Anyway, did Blackadder not establish that Hull was the best university in England ?

In reply to Graeme G:

> Doubt it. It’s jokingly known as the one where all the Oxford and Cambridge rejects attend.

Last time I was in St Andrews the students were playing polo on the beach.  I think some of them are quite well off.

Post edited at 18:59
 Fat Bumbly2 08 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

I have been rejected by both Oxford universities

In reply to Graeme G:

> Anyway, did Blackadder not establish that Hull was the best university in England ?

It's been a culture capital since then too, although it could lose credibility for being Prescott's stomping ground, but perhaps we shouldn't hold that against the city. It does/did have the party ferry for those wishing to take a more cultural route the Alps. 

 scratcher 08 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

> It's been a culture capital since then too, although it could lose credibility for being Prescott's stomping ground, but perhaps we shouldn't hold that against the city. It does/did have the party ferry for those wishing to take a more cultural route the Alps. 

Not sure if you're being serious or just Larkin'?

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Re vaccine orders - I note all major rich countries have ordered multiples of the required dose numbers of vaccines - although at least for the UK not more than 2 doses per adult for another one vaccine.

was not this because the process was a massive gamble rather than deliberately ending up with loads of effective doses?

if spare doses are given away then that’s all to the good - and if we gain political capital from it then that’s no bad thing.

re doses for Australia - do we not need to know the terms of the contract Australia has with AZ? Maybe the Aussies also have a better written contract than the EU do. 

 scratcher 08 Apr 2021
In reply to alastairmac1:

> Nice....I assume because Scotland is too small and poor to govern our own country?

I only ever hear that faux grievance trotted out by nationalists. It's like a reflexive spasm for some of you.

Scotland could govern itself quite happily, eventually, once it had reduced its spending to more sustainable levels and overcome the considerable difficulties that ScraggyGoat listed above. In the short to medium term there would be a huge amount of disruption and misery. It would make Brexit look like a walk in the park.

3
 Eric9Points 08 Apr 2021
In reply to alastairmac1:

> Nice....I assume because Scotland is too small and poor to govern our own country? 

I fail to see who you think you're going to convince with this tired old strawman.

Of course Scotland could be a country on its own but it would be a poorer country with less influence in the world and fewer opportunities for those who live here.

It's not a difficult concept to grasp.

4
 Eric9Points 08 Apr 2021
In reply to summo:

> That's what happens in capital cities.

> They are moving departments out to Wolverhampton and Darlington. How much have the snp moved out to the Highlands and Islands? 

The SNP don't do decentralisation.

They don't even like local government. They allow it the fewest revenue raising powers of any developed nation.

3
 daWalt 08 Apr 2021
In reply to alastairmac1:

> SNP both votes. For a progressive, socially just and democratic future in Europe.

sounds fine in theory, but I'm not totally convinced of the europe bit being quite that simple - at this moment in time...

Having a land border between EU and non EU countries, on small island off the coast of the continent isn't working out too well at the moment for some. our situation is different in many ways, a tad less sectarian, but in other ways it could be potentially much worse from an economic and commerce point to view; you just need to look at what travels up the M74, and what goes down.

Especially given the UK's arrangements with the EU are still having "teething problems", it's clear enough that scotland leaving uk won't just put everything back to how things were pre 2016.

the benefits of scotland being in/out of the uk is moot, but until the dust settles it's difficult to know how to appropriately moot it. I really can't see any benefit of making a kneejerk reaction to the current situation, and piling uncertainty onto uncertainty.

2
In reply to daWalt:

> Especially given the UK's arrangements with the EU are still having "teething problems", it's clear enough that scotland leaving uk won't just put everything back to how things were pre 2016.

Before 2016 there was no case for independence. There is now, but paradoxically 2016 has made it far, far more risky.

> The benefits of Scotland being in/out of the uk is moot, but until the dust settles it's difficult to know how to appropriately moot it. I really can't see any benefit of making a kneejerk reaction to the current situation, and piling uncertainty onto uncertainty.

Absolutely. Now is no time to be making the decision.

2
In reply to Robert Durran:

> Before 2016 there was no case for independence. There is now, but paradoxically 2016 has made it far, far more risky.

> Absolutely. Now is no time to be making the decision.

When is the perfect time to leave the ship and head for the lifeboats?   Not making a decision is also a decision.  

The Tories are taking the UK away from the EU.  Every year they are in power the gap will grow and it will be harder for Scotland to return to its natural home as an independent nation within the EU.

5
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> When is the perfect time to leave the ship and head for the lifeboats?   

Once the twin storms of Brexit and Covid have calmed.

3
 Le Sapeur 09 Apr 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> When is the perfect time to leave the ship and head for the lifeboats?   Not making a decision is also a decision.  

Best to make sure the ship is sinking first. Otherwise you are just bobbing around helpless in a huge sea.

> The Tories are taking the UK away from the EU.  Every year they are in power the gap will grow and it will be harder for Scotland to return to its natural home as an independent nation within the EU.

Scotlands natural home? Before the Union? Before the EU? Presumably our natural home is no Union and no EU, just as it was way back? Maybe we should all don our kilts and kill anyone with a different surname just to be sure?

8
 Graeme G 09 Apr 2021
In reply to Le Sapeur:

More interesting polling.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/snp-retains-strong-lead-independence-dominates-voters-concerns

Independence is number 1 issue, and SNP majority.

 ScraggyGoat 09 Apr 2021
In reply to Graeme G:

Its not surprising Independence is the number 1 issue when it is so divisive (the country still being split roughly 50/50 but with significant geographic disparities), and two mainstream parties (both idealogues) have it as a cornerstone of their election campaigning........................a clear case of lets just forget about the other policies and past performances.........I wonder why?

 Graeme G 09 Apr 2021
In reply to ScraggyGoat:

> Its not surprising Independence is the number 1 issue when it is so divisive (the country still being split roughly 50/50 but with significant geographic disparities), and two mainstream parties (both idealogues) have it as a cornerstone of their election campaigning........................a clear case of lets just forget about the other policies and past performances.........I wonder why?

Interesting for me, given a few posters on here say people aren’t talking about independence. This suggests they possibly are. Although the research doesn’t make clear what people’s thoughts on independence are. Just that it’s the number 1 issue.

Post edited at 15:38

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