In reply to petersheppard: Now this is getting proper scientific - good stuff. I was trying to get Google Earth to do this but clearly had no data like this.
You first land profile doesn't look like it would give me as much of Tryfan North Ridge as I could actually see which was between 2/3 and 3/4 of the full ridge at a guess. Is that just a facet of the vertical scale on your diagram or is it on a slightly different bearing from mine (248 degrees on Google Earth)? Yours give me the top third of Tryfan, and I think I photographed more than that.
Then the picture of what you should be able to see from Dog Hill - bearing in mind I was a couple of hundred feet down from the top of Dog Hill, I could actually see Tryfan, Bristly Ridge, some of the Glyders and a little bit of Crib Goch heading up into the mists over Snowdon which is a (very) little more than your prediction.
Is it possible there was atmospheric refraction going on that evening? How would that work? The sky was pretty clean - it had just stopped raining across the north west that day so there was none of the usual muck over Manchester. It was pretty cold though, maybe 8 degrees. Would that explain the amount of the North Ridge I could see compared with your prediction?
Still I'm amazed what can be done with the available data - good effort!