UKC

See http://www.mwis.org.uk/synoptic.php#120
Am I just being optimistic, or is this the first sign of the high pressure rebuilding?

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Could be. The Independent thinks so: "However, respite from the freezing conditions could prove brief as temperatures will plunge again by the end of next week, bringing a risk of more snow and ice."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/thaw-brings-respite-but-big-...

In reply to Rog Wilko: more snow quite possible between boundary of the warm air from south west, and continued blocking high off scandinavia ( but probally on high ground only)but not general cold.

not sure charts yet show building of the blocking high sufficiently to give UK freeze again. (we should have an idea sat/sun when weds-friday charts appear).

In reply to Neil Anderson:
you can get long range deterministic here
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_u...

MET office use ecmwf for quite a bit of their data - they are highly respected.

Currently next week looking quite good but maybe not for low level ice falls, with a deterioation in conditions for the weekend after.

In reply to Rog Wilko:
According to the forecasted synoptic chart a high pressure is slowly starting to build, or rather the main high is extending southwards.

The optimism is with the forecasters though, unless you ignore them and make your own mind up, you can only be a believer, or not in their abilities.

I have got to say they have not got much right for 5 day forecasts so far this winter. The projections for maximum temperature even for 1 day ahead have been changing significantly on a daily basis over recent days.

Take a snapshot in 5 days time and see how good they were. I can guarantee the chart will not look exactly like that. But, even though temperature is broadly taken out of the equation in the charts, just how close or strong does the high need to be to say they were right or not?

My view is it could still be cold but not as cold as it has been.

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Blimey I dont think i have ever seen a chart with that many fronts on it

In reply to Peter Metcalfe: Re the Indie article: interesting that in their analysis of flooding possibility they don't mention that the rain will in many places be falling on ground which is still frozen hard and therefore approximates to tarmac in relation to run-off. Not wishing to be a doom-monger but flood risk may be greater than realised after such a prolonged very cold spell.

In reply to Rog Wilko:

http://www.ukclimbing.com/forums/t.php?t=390018&new=5629198#x5629138

In reply to ClwydTraveller: their new seasonal forecasts have been even worse - bar-b-q summer followed by milder than avergae winter...er NO!

In reply to CurlyStevo: thanks. an interesting site. It does look like mid week is promising.

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Given the very poor forecast accuracy so far (at anything beyond the one or two day level), I'm not sure what to expect - no-one seems to be modeling the northern hemisphere at all well anymore (which is perhaps worrying?), but my gut feeling from the fact that the Arctic Sea Ice turned up (relatively) early this winter along with this whole 'strongly negative' Arctic Oscillation (or whatever its branded this week) indicates that this winter has a long way to run, and that it will probably include the UK as well.

Some commentators are saying 3 weeks or more 'average' winter before another further significantly cold spell from mid February onwards (into mid to late March). This is plausible given that the local sea temperatures don't reach a minimum (IIRC) until March.

YMMV...

PP.