UKC

Ok does anyone have any idea of what the practical consequences would be if say the footsie dropped 5% tomorrow or 20% over the week?

Riots in Henley?

In reply to KTT:

You need to ask a financial expert!


Chris

In reply to KTT: Wait for it to bottom out - if you have money to play with, invest in a simple index tracking ISA - sit back and watch your money grow 20% well within the next year - wish I had some spare dosh

In reply to KTT: Well, since the FTSE stands at around 5250, and the low point at the recession it stood at 3400, if it lost 20% tomorrow, it would be at 4200. Still more than 10% above the value in 2007.

In reply to KTT:

The real questions are, will the Euro survive and how will the US downgrade by S&P affect US$ and government bond prices on Monday?

Doom and gloom everywhere at the moment!

In reply to SARS:

Not if you're at cash it isn't.

In reply to Chris Craggs:

Or stock up with provisions, barracade your house and buy a gun (or two) to deter the inevitable breakdown of law and order leading to widespread looting.

In reply to Trangia:


Well the 'experts' will see that coming won't they, just like they have predicted everything so far.

Chris

In reply to Chris Craggs:

Plenty of experts did predict the recession and subsequent crash. Many others who knew it must come just had the timing wrong and got caught.

In reply to KTT:


Some people who are making self-fulfilling prophecies of doom and gloom will be making a fortune out of it at some point?

In reply to Gunboat_Diplomat:

Really?

How interesting.

I guess they were all predicting this one as well.

In reply to Gunboat_Diplomat:

I actually sold all my non-pension stocks 3 weeks ago . Pure luck though.

In reply to KTT: I will be going on a spending spree. I am going to buy more glaxo, Aviva and vodafone shares for me, all with very good yields, and will be topping up my wifes sipp with Aviva and Glaxo. The last time I bought Barclays shares they were still well below the price they are at now. Probable wont buy any more as I have enough.

In reply to SARS:

If you Euro goes down tomorrow, I'm jiggered, I've only got five of the Queen's finest English pounds on me until I get home to Blighty. I might be selling the wife's body in return for diesel at this rate!!!

In reply to KTT:

Ok does anyone have any idea of what the practical consequences would be if say the footsie dropped 5% tomorrow or 20% over the week?

The only practical consequence is that shares will be cheaper.

I'll stick my neck out and say that the FTSE will be higher at next Friday's close than it was at last Friday's.

In reply to Bingers:


Nah, your quids in! Think super inflation of the Weimar republic or the Zimbabwean dollar.

In a weeks time you'll be able to send your wife back to bligghty first class for 30p and blow the rest of your fiver on coke, hookers and champagne in the 'Dam.

In reply to Removed User:

Excellent, if you'd like to pop over and join me, you'd be very welcome.

In reply to Gunboat_Diplomat:

I'll see your cash and raise you by 5%+ inflation

In reply to woolsack:

What a suprise.

I don't think I've seen you post since the last stock market crisis.

How's the Baltic dry goods index (or whatever it was) doing at the moment.

Still got a healthy stockpile of ammunition?

In reply to Removed User:

Feckin brilliant Eric.

In reply to KTT:Sell sell sell
Short short short!!!!!!!!!!!! Yippy


So nop riots in Henley just more jam!

In reply to KTT:

ECB to intervene decisively on markets: source

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ECB-to-intervene-decisively-rb-356849071.html...

(Reuters) - The Euro system of central banks has decided to intervene decisively on markets to respond to the escalating debt crisis, a euro zone monetary source said after a European Central Bank conference call on Sunday.

Officials on the conference call carefully considered the situation in Italy and Spain, and took note of a statement by France and Germany which stressed their commitment to European financial reforms, the source said.

"The Euro system will intervene very significantly on markets and respond in a significant and cohesive way," the euro zone monetary source said, adding a statement by the ECB will be issued shortly.

In reply to Removed User:

I did hear something on Radio 4 about a year or two ago, about there being a potential financial crisis in the form of a recession heading Europe's way.

It was one person's analysis(sp) of the banking crisis and unfolding recession in Britain, and how it could look very mild compared to what might happen in Europe if nothing was done.

I think I remember hearing it (but not much detail unfortunately) because it sounded particularly gloomy.

Cheers
Tim

In reply to lowersharpnose:

yes but what it doesnt say is the intervention is:
"well we have looked at several models and analysed probable outcomes and have concluded we are up shit creek. Therefore we are all resigning immediately. good luck we are off down the pub until it is over"

In reply to Timmd: Yes, what's happening now WAS predicted during the middle of the 2007 recession. It was always a possibilty rather than inevitable. It has the potential to be catastrophic too. But hopefully it won't be.

Re the original recession, it is no accident that I owned no house and had cash in the bank.

It is virtually impossible to say with confidence exactly when a recession will happen, but it is the easiest thing in the world to predict it will happen sooner or later. As you all like to take the piss out of me for saying, I build supermarkets. That also is no accident. Until 2006 I build apartments.

In reply to dissonance:

Looks like it is buying distressed bonds of Italy, Spain in the market. Sounds good to me.

In reply to KTT:

double up: stock up on guns and ammo AND shares in armalite.

In reply to lowersharpnose:

Does seem like it sounds good enough for the market though, I see the FTSE is down another 90 points this morning.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^FTSE

In reply to Removed User:


The ECB's concern is the bond market not the stock market

In reply to Removed User:

DOW futures are currently about 225 down too.

In reply to Removed User:

Well remembered. Didn't think it appropriate to come on here with all the 'I told you so' on the gold price

In reply to woolsack:


so you are advocating the current bubble asset, well done. I will be impressed if you predict the bail out point.

Nice to see the Italians taking a more direct approach to the question of the rating agencies

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/04/police-raid-milan-moodys-standa...

In reply to dissonance:

If Woolsack made a call on investing/speculating* in gold good on him. If the Italian governement is seeking to intimidate ratings agencies bad on them.




*delete according to your viewpoint

In reply to KTT: I think it must just be me but...

Does the whole thing (economics, politics, destruction of the environment, increasing population, famine, rising energy costs etc) not simply point to the fact that we've got it wrong?

I just can't understand that politicians / businesses continue to tinker with the status quo (let's borrow a bit more, let's stress about falling stock markets, let's downgrade so and so's credit rating, let's get on the TV and bang on about society a bit but not actually do anything, let's rant at The News of the World meanwhile untold far worse things go untouched / uncommented on, let's have education policies that mean our 11 year olds can't read) as if it's all OK and this is just a blip but we're heading in the right direction, that somehow the magical elixir of growth will change things? IT WON'T!

Why is this not obvious to all?

In reply to shark:


its not the government but the courts (same court who have investigated Berlusconi in the past).

In reply to ksjs:

Why is it not obvious to you that in reality, the individual means little compared to society/humanity as a whole and that a non dynamic system would be, erm, static.

In other words, what do you think drives the improvements you enjoy in life expectancy, standard of living etc.

It's pretty easy to see how this all ties together as a system, the problem is people as individuals don't like it. I'd be willing to bet they would like the alternatives a lot less though.

In reply to shark:

I'm not so sure... Firstly those courts are independant. Secondly if you look at who owns the agencies they are far from independant and they are likely implicated in manipulating the (US) politics and maybe even markets (with modern financial vehicles you can make obviously make a lot of money on falls as well as rises). They also gave good ratings to the banks and their products just before the last implosion.

In reply to Offwidth:

I was just about to make the same point but much less politely.

In reply to Gunboat_Diplomat: That depends on the alternatives. The individual is society / humanity surely? It's the disconnect between the two (individual and global 'society' that is), almost deliberate as far as I can tell, that means the status quo remains. No surprises there.

I do not think the benefits we enjoy are exclusive to the inadequate systems we currently employ for global commerce, governance or justice.