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Myself and some friends are developing quite a strong urge to visit the Karakorum in 2016. I was wondering, if anyone has opinions on how safe a destination it is? On the one hand, the British FCO travel advice is quite negative (compared to, for instance, their travel advice for Kyrgyzstan). On the other hand, a copy of the 2014 American Alpine Journal landed in my postbox this autumn and it contains a number of reports from expeditions who have visited successfully....
1
In reply to JdotP:
Thats a really hard thing to answer but I'll give you my two cents from me last three years there...
Essentially Pakistan is a really dangerous country. Having said that it is one of my favourite places to visit in the world. The people of Pakistan are the most welcoming that I have ever met. However, like all countries, there are some bad apples but it just so happens that the 'bad apples' in Pakistan are really bad news. My feeling, and again this is entirely personal, is that if you were to encounter these Pakistanis then you will be quite lucky to get out alive. I say 'these Pakistanis' because everyone uses the 'Taliban' word to describe just about anyone with a beard holding an AK47 nowadays, but in reality this is a country with many different factions.
It is definitely worth taking some time and reading up on what has been happening in Pakistan over the last ten years, and especially in the last 5. If you do so you will start to understand quite quickly why there is a lot of anti-western resentment in the country and to be honest it is rightly felt- this isn't just about religion. In fact, and again this is just personal felling on the matter, I think that religion plays a very small role in any anti-western resentment. On a human level you will note that just about every major power has been in there and left leaving a country even more divided and in tatters than when it first arrived. Even nowadays you have Western drones flying in and taking out 'targets' along with, what is now becoming 'accepted', civilian collateral. A by product of war you might say, but then Pakistan isn't at war with the West; if I was a Pakistani and Western drones were flying over my country and bombing people I would be incensed as well. That is just one of the many reasons though and I give it as an example.
It has also been interesting to follow the political unrest since August. There are now two major political powers trying to overthrow the government (not violently overthrow) that have resulted in hundreds of thousands of protestors rallying in the capital of Islamabad and staying for a huge amount of time. Amazingly none of this ended in anything too bloody, but political unrest is definitely something to take in to account with a country's security.
One final note is that the Pakistani Taliban have pledged allegiance to IS. For me that is the most serious thing as IS do have a thing for beheading Westerners in a very public way as you know. To me that makes Westerners an even greater kidnap (and beheading) target than before. But that might be completely wrong and again is just what I feel.
However as I say Pakistan is one of my favourite places to visit. You just need to be sensible about it all and realise where you are. The Karakorum climbing range is located in the North of the country which is, I think, the safest part of it. Due to the fact that India is still at war with Pakistan over Kashmir (technically still at war I think, but this has been on going for decades and they don't actually fight each other, given that Pakistan has nuclear weapons it is best not to be at war with it!) it means that there is a strong military presence up north which is helpful for keeping any 'militants' from venturing up there. I'd also point out that the ethnicity of northern Pakistan is actually of Tibetan descent, you can read in to that however you want but I've never felt more welcome anywhere in the world than by the Pakistanis of this area.
As for the climbing, the Karakorum is by far the best climbing range I have ever been to. Some of the world's top alpinists would agree to this as well. It is hard to describe really, but given that it shares the same granite that has made Chamonix so famous it gives you an idea of why. I think for any trip to Pakistan you need to do some serious research in to the country and take very basic precautions: dont leave your hotel in Islamabad, don't ever drive the Karakorum highway (the actual road is safe but the regions it passes through is not), and understand the risks that surround you. I don't think that when you're at base camp you are in any danger- Nanga Parbat is in a very different and unique area than the Baltoro or other prime climbing areas.
That might be a bit lengthy but actually it's a very condensed version of what you should be aware of. I think it is safe as long as you are sensible, but that is entirely up to you to decide. My biggest concern right now is the Pakistan Taliban affiliation with IS. One thing for sure is that over the last three years things changed hugely against Western favour, but I can promise that when you arrive up north you will be greeted by the nicest bunch of people you will ever meet in your life and it is something that brings me back year after year to Pakistan despite the obvious dangers. The decision at the end of the day is entirely up to you.
J
Thats a really hard thing to answer but I'll give you my two cents from me last three years there...
Essentially Pakistan is a really dangerous country. Having said that it is one of my favourite places to visit in the world. The people of Pakistan are the most welcoming that I have ever met. However, like all countries, there are some bad apples but it just so happens that the 'bad apples' in Pakistan are really bad news. My feeling, and again this is entirely personal, is that if you were to encounter these Pakistanis then you will be quite lucky to get out alive. I say 'these Pakistanis' because everyone uses the 'Taliban' word to describe just about anyone with a beard holding an AK47 nowadays, but in reality this is a country with many different factions.
It is definitely worth taking some time and reading up on what has been happening in Pakistan over the last ten years, and especially in the last 5. If you do so you will start to understand quite quickly why there is a lot of anti-western resentment in the country and to be honest it is rightly felt- this isn't just about religion. In fact, and again this is just personal felling on the matter, I think that religion plays a very small role in any anti-western resentment. On a human level you will note that just about every major power has been in there and left leaving a country even more divided and in tatters than when it first arrived. Even nowadays you have Western drones flying in and taking out 'targets' along with, what is now becoming 'accepted', civilian collateral. A by product of war you might say, but then Pakistan isn't at war with the West; if I was a Pakistani and Western drones were flying over my country and bombing people I would be incensed as well. That is just one of the many reasons though and I give it as an example.
It has also been interesting to follow the political unrest since August. There are now two major political powers trying to overthrow the government (not violently overthrow) that have resulted in hundreds of thousands of protestors rallying in the capital of Islamabad and staying for a huge amount of time. Amazingly none of this ended in anything too bloody, but political unrest is definitely something to take in to account with a country's security.
One final note is that the Pakistani Taliban have pledged allegiance to IS. For me that is the most serious thing as IS do have a thing for beheading Westerners in a very public way as you know. To me that makes Westerners an even greater kidnap (and beheading) target than before. But that might be completely wrong and again is just what I feel.
However as I say Pakistan is one of my favourite places to visit. You just need to be sensible about it all and realise where you are. The Karakorum climbing range is located in the North of the country which is, I think, the safest part of it. Due to the fact that India is still at war with Pakistan over Kashmir (technically still at war I think, but this has been on going for decades and they don't actually fight each other, given that Pakistan has nuclear weapons it is best not to be at war with it!) it means that there is a strong military presence up north which is helpful for keeping any 'militants' from venturing up there. I'd also point out that the ethnicity of northern Pakistan is actually of Tibetan descent, you can read in to that however you want but I've never felt more welcome anywhere in the world than by the Pakistanis of this area.
As for the climbing, the Karakorum is by far the best climbing range I have ever been to. Some of the world's top alpinists would agree to this as well. It is hard to describe really, but given that it shares the same granite that has made Chamonix so famous it gives you an idea of why. I think for any trip to Pakistan you need to do some serious research in to the country and take very basic precautions: dont leave your hotel in Islamabad, don't ever drive the Karakorum highway (the actual road is safe but the regions it passes through is not), and understand the risks that surround you. I don't think that when you're at base camp you are in any danger- Nanga Parbat is in a very different and unique area than the Baltoro or other prime climbing areas.
That might be a bit lengthy but actually it's a very condensed version of what you should be aware of. I think it is safe as long as you are sensible, but that is entirely up to you to decide. My biggest concern right now is the Pakistan Taliban affiliation with IS. One thing for sure is that over the last three years things changed hugely against Western favour, but I can promise that when you arrive up north you will be greeted by the nicest bunch of people you will ever meet in your life and it is something that brings me back year after year to Pakistan despite the obvious dangers. The decision at the end of the day is entirely up to you.
J
3
In reply to Jon Griffith:
I agree that's a significant change. I haven't been to Pakistan since 2007 but I follow the situation there and it's clear things have deteriorated.
In addition to Jon's good post above:
- some people are coming in through the Khunjerab Pass to climb in Hunza-Gojal or come south to Gilgit and Skardu. In some ways this is safer, but it has its own dangers now. Despite the popularity and safety of this area, there were always a few dangerous individuals or small groups about and incidents often happened but were not reported in the West. The ability to travel independently in this region is great, but makes it a prime target now for those looking to kidnap a westerner.
- There is a lot of Chinese activity in the upper Gojal area, mostly roadbuilding, as the 2010 landslide/lake near Karimabad cut off the upper region to some extent for those south. There is some resentment over this presence and the Chinese have not taken well the murder of one of their (Chinese-American) citizens at Nanga Parbat BC.
- I was in Chapursan Valley in July 2001 then after 9/11 it was cut off (as it has a road going almost right to the Afghan border), then it reopened again. But for the last several years at least - despite what you read in tourist sites - it is restricted and closed off to tourists (I had planned to go there a couple of years ago). This is for a reason, mainly that they are worried about fighters coming in from Afghanistan and going south to the Pak-India Kashmir border region, or north in China, where there is now a lot of unrest in Kashgar and Urumqi. i.e. the Pakistani authorities know that fighters are coming in and travelling down through a popular tourist area and have been doing so for some years.
- Jon's comment about not leaving your hotel in Islamabad sounds extreme, and sad, but is probably correct now, unfortunately. If you go back through UKC posts on this subject you'll see me and others saying ISB is safe and the Baltoro is safe but it's just parts of the the KKH (near the Kashmir border) that are dangerous. But now I'd be a lot more careful around ISB, where I've had some really enjoyable nights out in past years, and they're trying to not have any expeditions drive the road, only fly. Usual problem though, the flight can't go for weather reasons so you're eventually 'forced' to drive and take a greater risk. Or, like a friend coming out from K2 in August 2013, spend over a week waiting in Skardu (there's bouldering, but no pubs).
- From contacts inside Pakistan, the Nanga Parbat murders were not really by 'Taliban', as Jon touches on, but by local people with contacts to Taliban who were encouraged to attack the camp for other reasons, some to do with destabilising the local region for political purposes, some to do with attacking representatives of the West. There are no doubt other factors to it, but that's the problem - there are just so many seemingly minor things going on that may not seem significant or related, but they can come together and evolve into something else more serious, and you happen to be in the way when the bus stops for lunch.
- Personally, I would still go. They are the greatest mountains on earth and mostly good people. But now you just need to take more precautions, take them more seriously, choose your objectives with a variety of factors in mind and be even more flexible to accommodate significant changes in plans - including cancelling completely a few days before you go.
D
>
> One final note is that the Pakistani Taliban have pledged allegiance to IS. For me that is the most serious thing as IS do have a thing for beheading Westerners in a very public way as you know. To me that makes Westerners an even greater kidnap (and beheading) target than before. But that might be completely wrong and again is just what I feel.
> One final note is that the Pakistani Taliban have pledged allegiance to IS. For me that is the most serious thing as IS do have a thing for beheading Westerners in a very public way as you know. To me that makes Westerners an even greater kidnap (and beheading) target than before. But that might be completely wrong and again is just what I feel.
I agree that's a significant change. I haven't been to Pakistan since 2007 but I follow the situation there and it's clear things have deteriorated.
In addition to Jon's good post above:
- some people are coming in through the Khunjerab Pass to climb in Hunza-Gojal or come south to Gilgit and Skardu. In some ways this is safer, but it has its own dangers now. Despite the popularity and safety of this area, there were always a few dangerous individuals or small groups about and incidents often happened but were not reported in the West. The ability to travel independently in this region is great, but makes it a prime target now for those looking to kidnap a westerner.
- There is a lot of Chinese activity in the upper Gojal area, mostly roadbuilding, as the 2010 landslide/lake near Karimabad cut off the upper region to some extent for those south. There is some resentment over this presence and the Chinese have not taken well the murder of one of their (Chinese-American) citizens at Nanga Parbat BC.
- I was in Chapursan Valley in July 2001 then after 9/11 it was cut off (as it has a road going almost right to the Afghan border), then it reopened again. But for the last several years at least - despite what you read in tourist sites - it is restricted and closed off to tourists (I had planned to go there a couple of years ago). This is for a reason, mainly that they are worried about fighters coming in from Afghanistan and going south to the Pak-India Kashmir border region, or north in China, where there is now a lot of unrest in Kashgar and Urumqi. i.e. the Pakistani authorities know that fighters are coming in and travelling down through a popular tourist area and have been doing so for some years.
- Jon's comment about not leaving your hotel in Islamabad sounds extreme, and sad, but is probably correct now, unfortunately. If you go back through UKC posts on this subject you'll see me and others saying ISB is safe and the Baltoro is safe but it's just parts of the the KKH (near the Kashmir border) that are dangerous. But now I'd be a lot more careful around ISB, where I've had some really enjoyable nights out in past years, and they're trying to not have any expeditions drive the road, only fly. Usual problem though, the flight can't go for weather reasons so you're eventually 'forced' to drive and take a greater risk. Or, like a friend coming out from K2 in August 2013, spend over a week waiting in Skardu (there's bouldering, but no pubs).
- From contacts inside Pakistan, the Nanga Parbat murders were not really by 'Taliban', as Jon touches on, but by local people with contacts to Taliban who were encouraged to attack the camp for other reasons, some to do with destabilising the local region for political purposes, some to do with attacking representatives of the West. There are no doubt other factors to it, but that's the problem - there are just so many seemingly minor things going on that may not seem significant or related, but they can come together and evolve into something else more serious, and you happen to be in the way when the bus stops for lunch.
- Personally, I would still go. They are the greatest mountains on earth and mostly good people. But now you just need to take more precautions, take them more seriously, choose your objectives with a variety of factors in mind and be even more flexible to accommodate significant changes in plans - including cancelling completely a few days before you go.
D
1
@ Jon and Damo - Two of the best posts I think I've read on UKC.
In reply to Colin Henderson:
Actually have to agree there.
> @ Jon and Damo - Two of the best posts I think I've read on UKC.
Actually have to agree there.
In reply to Colin Henderson:
I agree wholeheartedly!... And also two of the most dissuasive with regards to my taking any of my annual leave in Pakistan.
See you in t'Lakes.
> @ Jon and Damo - Two of the best posts I think I've read on UKC.
I agree wholeheartedly!... And also two of the most dissuasive with regards to my taking any of my annual leave in Pakistan.
See you in t'Lakes.
1
Quite depressing to read these posts. I spent much of 2010 working in Islamabad and it was safe enough for me to go running by myself in the Margalla hills on the edge of the city and to establish a lot of sport climbs with local climbers there. The idea of being confined to hotels now is awful.
It always struck me that there was a lot of hypocrisy in the politicians' approach to US involvement; publicly you would be hard pressed to find any support all all for it among the leaders of the major parties, with lots of angry-sounding rhetoric stirring up popular opinion, but in practice none were in any hurry to see the Americans and their money withdrawn. It simply wouldn't be in their economic interest for that to happen. So the politicians tread a fine line of saying one thing and yet doing another.
It strikes me that there are similarities right now in the UK, where there's a lot of anti-immigration and anti-EU rhetoric spouted by many politicians who see it as a vote-winning approach, while behind the scenes it's clear that without a substantial number of immigrants and without EU membership the country would very much struggle to have as much economic success as it currently achieves.
The moral, I suppose, is that in modern politics it's difficult to take anyone at heir word, but I struggle to see how such hypocrisy can be to any country's longer-term benefit.
It always struck me that there was a lot of hypocrisy in the politicians' approach to US involvement; publicly you would be hard pressed to find any support all all for it among the leaders of the major parties, with lots of angry-sounding rhetoric stirring up popular opinion, but in practice none were in any hurry to see the Americans and their money withdrawn. It simply wouldn't be in their economic interest for that to happen. So the politicians tread a fine line of saying one thing and yet doing another.
It strikes me that there are similarities right now in the UK, where there's a lot of anti-immigration and anti-EU rhetoric spouted by many politicians who see it as a vote-winning approach, while behind the scenes it's clear that without a substantial number of immigrants and without EU membership the country would very much struggle to have as much economic success as it currently achieves.
The moral, I suppose, is that in modern politics it's difficult to take anyone at heir word, but I struggle to see how such hypocrisy can be to any country's longer-term benefit.
In reply to Damo:
I think when Damo says: there are just so many seemingly minor things going on that may not seem significant or related, but they can come together and evolve into something else more serious, and you happen to be in the way when the bus stops for lunch.
That pretty much hits the nail on the head. It is an impossible country to predict so just try and keep a low profile at all times. Not because everyone is dangerous, but simply because anything can happen in Pakistan and it is best to not be in the way when it does. Keeping a low profile is the best way of ensuring that. I do actually leave my hotel in Islamabad but it's in a taxi that is booked by the hotel and I go straight to the Marriott Hotel (burgers!). I don't ever just walk about Islamabad- again there is probably nothing wrong with doing that but I just don't want to tempt fate. One thing I was told is if you do ever walk about Islamabad (or any country like Pakistan) is never get in to a routine: if you find yourself eating breakfast from the same shop every morning, for example, then that routine can be targeted.
I'd also agree with Damo that even though it all sounds very scary I would still go back (in fact I will be going back next year). It's a weird country Pakistan- it's not like everyone is out to get you (quite the opposite) but you just have to remember that it can be very dangerous if you tempt the danger in the first place. There are people that would love to get their hands on a Western climber, but they can be very easily be avoided. Stay in your hotel in ISL, fly the KKH, and once you arrive in Skardu I'd say you're very safe indeed and can happily walk around town.
It really is one of the greatest mountain ranges on earth on the only place where I've felt like I've been on a real expedition- there is minimal tourist infrastructure out there and just getting a visa is an adventure on it's own! Finding a good agent is key to trip success, never try and wing it yourself. I (and many others) use Ghulam at Blue Sky Treks and Tours. His attention to detail is incredible and no question is too daft and no 'demand' is too much- you can get a 10 man mess tent if you just ask.
I'd also take a look at this article that Steve Swenson (veteran of PK expeditions) wrote after the Nanga Parbat attack: http://steveswensonsblog.blogspot.fr/2013/06/attack-on-climbers-in-pakistan... . It's a good start and it shows you quite how complicated the whole country is!
J
I think when Damo says: there are just so many seemingly minor things going on that may not seem significant or related, but they can come together and evolve into something else more serious, and you happen to be in the way when the bus stops for lunch.
That pretty much hits the nail on the head. It is an impossible country to predict so just try and keep a low profile at all times. Not because everyone is dangerous, but simply because anything can happen in Pakistan and it is best to not be in the way when it does. Keeping a low profile is the best way of ensuring that. I do actually leave my hotel in Islamabad but it's in a taxi that is booked by the hotel and I go straight to the Marriott Hotel (burgers!). I don't ever just walk about Islamabad- again there is probably nothing wrong with doing that but I just don't want to tempt fate. One thing I was told is if you do ever walk about Islamabad (or any country like Pakistan) is never get in to a routine: if you find yourself eating breakfast from the same shop every morning, for example, then that routine can be targeted.
I'd also agree with Damo that even though it all sounds very scary I would still go back (in fact I will be going back next year). It's a weird country Pakistan- it's not like everyone is out to get you (quite the opposite) but you just have to remember that it can be very dangerous if you tempt the danger in the first place. There are people that would love to get their hands on a Western climber, but they can be very easily be avoided. Stay in your hotel in ISL, fly the KKH, and once you arrive in Skardu I'd say you're very safe indeed and can happily walk around town.
It really is one of the greatest mountain ranges on earth on the only place where I've felt like I've been on a real expedition- there is minimal tourist infrastructure out there and just getting a visa is an adventure on it's own! Finding a good agent is key to trip success, never try and wing it yourself. I (and many others) use Ghulam at Blue Sky Treks and Tours. His attention to detail is incredible and no question is too daft and no 'demand' is too much- you can get a 10 man mess tent if you just ask.
I'd also take a look at this article that Steve Swenson (veteran of PK expeditions) wrote after the Nanga Parbat attack: http://steveswensonsblog.blogspot.fr/2013/06/attack-on-climbers-in-pakistan... . It's a good start and it shows you quite how complicated the whole country is!
J
Post edited at 07:39
In reply to JdotP:
I've been to Pakistan a number of times for work, both in the 1990s and since 2008, and regrettably I must agree that the situation has got much worse. Two or three years ago I felt safe enough in Islamabad to walk around on my own at night, and to speed-walk those Margalla trails early in the morning for a bit of a work out (and indeed, I spotted John Arran's bolts). I would not do either of those things now. I even walked around happily in Swat. With my kids getting older, there was a time not too long ago when I thought of organising a family trek there. Now, despite the relative safety of the Baltoro as compared to Nanga Parbat, I would not dream of it.
Pakistan is basically a slow-motion tragedy, and I suspect that if Afghanistan become still more unstable, it will only become more dangerous. I agree the IS link makes it all the more scary. It makes any westerner anywhere in the country a high value target. I love the place too, but to be honest, as things stand, I would give it a miss.
I've been to Pakistan a number of times for work, both in the 1990s and since 2008, and regrettably I must agree that the situation has got much worse. Two or three years ago I felt safe enough in Islamabad to walk around on my own at night, and to speed-walk those Margalla trails early in the morning for a bit of a work out (and indeed, I spotted John Arran's bolts). I would not do either of those things now. I even walked around happily in Swat. With my kids getting older, there was a time not too long ago when I thought of organising a family trek there. Now, despite the relative safety of the Baltoro as compared to Nanga Parbat, I would not dream of it.
Pakistan is basically a slow-motion tragedy, and I suspect that if Afghanistan become still more unstable, it will only become more dangerous. I agree the IS link makes it all the more scary. It makes any westerner anywhere in the country a high value target. I love the place too, but to be honest, as things stand, I would give it a miss.
Post edited at 09:36
In reply to Bruce Hooker:
I've never been over to Chitral, Bruce but Pat Deavoll did a trip there this year, getting high on a big peak. Seems things were OK, but they had plenty of security etc: http://patdeavoll.co.nz/new-zealand-hindu-kush-expedition-pakistan-2014-lan...
I've never been over to Chitral, Bruce but Pat Deavoll did a trip there this year, getting high on a big peak. Seems things were OK, but they had plenty of security etc: http://patdeavoll.co.nz/new-zealand-hindu-kush-expedition-pakistan-2014-lan...
In reply to JdotP:
for tangential research well worth watching the bbc documentary on Afghanistan that has lots of references to the shifting sands in pakistan , a very compelling watch for anybody interested in the politics of the area
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04nd3rq/afghanistan-the-lions-last-ro...
for tangential research well worth watching the bbc documentary on Afghanistan that has lots of references to the shifting sands in pakistan , a very compelling watch for anybody interested in the politics of the area
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04nd3rq/afghanistan-the-lions-last-ro...
Post edited at 09:54
In reply to JdotP:
I spent six weeks trekking in the Karakoram last year (Post Nanga Parbat murders), without incident, however from what I saw and have read, I have to agree with everything Damo and Jon have said (they have been more times than me). The country is in turmoil due to a whole series of factors, and as a westener you stand out and are likely to attract good and possibly bad attention as a result. We only recieved a very warm welcome from nearly all we met.
Even if the Nanga Parbat murders were not strictly a Taliban operation, the international media interest it generated will have provided the Taliban and IS ample evidence that if they can orchestrate such an attack it will provide them with huge publicity. Given that, I personally think that another attack on Western mountaineers is likely. One of my main deciding factors for going in 2013 was that I thought it would be unlikely for the Taliban to be able mount two operations in the same year and be able to get past the locals to do it in the Karakoram, after having already done one and everyone being more alert as a result. However two years have past that could have been used to plan another such attack.......
Unfortunately, particularly economically for the locals of Gilgit and Skardu, the number of forgien trekkers and mountaineers have plummeted. For instance we had hotels entirely to ourselves in 2013. So while it is hard to calculate the odds of a Nanga Parbat style attack, or kidnapping for IS youtube termination, or for other motivations, due to the very limited number of westeners around, the chances of your being involved is statistically quiet high...i.e there was probably less than 500 westners climbing / trekking last year. Jon or Damo might know the actual figures.
Yes the ethnic make up and the military presence in the Karakoram makes the area 'relatively' safe, yes most of the locals are exceptionaly welcoming, and they 'hate' the Taliban as they have destroyed thier economic livelihoods.
So in short once in the Karakorum you will be very well treated by most people, but the country is unpredictable, and in my view people will be planning to try and get to westners. So it is very hard to do a meaningful risk assessment.
The mountains are great.
I spent six weeks trekking in the Karakoram last year (Post Nanga Parbat murders), without incident, however from what I saw and have read, I have to agree with everything Damo and Jon have said (they have been more times than me). The country is in turmoil due to a whole series of factors, and as a westener you stand out and are likely to attract good and possibly bad attention as a result. We only recieved a very warm welcome from nearly all we met.
Even if the Nanga Parbat murders were not strictly a Taliban operation, the international media interest it generated will have provided the Taliban and IS ample evidence that if they can orchestrate such an attack it will provide them with huge publicity. Given that, I personally think that another attack on Western mountaineers is likely. One of my main deciding factors for going in 2013 was that I thought it would be unlikely for the Taliban to be able mount two operations in the same year and be able to get past the locals to do it in the Karakoram, after having already done one and everyone being more alert as a result. However two years have past that could have been used to plan another such attack.......
Unfortunately, particularly economically for the locals of Gilgit and Skardu, the number of forgien trekkers and mountaineers have plummeted. For instance we had hotels entirely to ourselves in 2013. So while it is hard to calculate the odds of a Nanga Parbat style attack, or kidnapping for IS youtube termination, or for other motivations, due to the very limited number of westeners around, the chances of your being involved is statistically quiet high...i.e there was probably less than 500 westners climbing / trekking last year. Jon or Damo might know the actual figures.
Yes the ethnic make up and the military presence in the Karakoram makes the area 'relatively' safe, yes most of the locals are exceptionaly welcoming, and they 'hate' the Taliban as they have destroyed thier economic livelihoods.
So in short once in the Karakorum you will be very well treated by most people, but the country is unpredictable, and in my view people will be planning to try and get to westners. So it is very hard to do a meaningful risk assessment.
The mountains are great.
In reply to JdotP:
Hi there
Sorry for late reply, but I went to Pakistan for the first time In Aug 2012. Things have changed since for sure, and others have been since.
But we had a great time, no problems with anything or anyone. Granted I am of Indian descent, and not caucasian. Spent more than a few days around ISB and went out with my female Canadian friend. I flew in and out of Skardu, so did not experience the KKH but then I do not think I am missing much
Another friend of mine went to BP the year after, and again there were no problems.
Although once, we saw in large writing "Kill all Americans" on a wall in a village and we just drive that little bit faster...
Our trip reports....
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radson/sets/72157631234536408/with/7858094532/
http://www.summitpost.org/snow-falling-on-sirdars/811056
Thanks
Avi
Hi there
Sorry for late reply, but I went to Pakistan for the first time In Aug 2012. Things have changed since for sure, and others have been since.
But we had a great time, no problems with anything or anyone. Granted I am of Indian descent, and not caucasian. Spent more than a few days around ISB and went out with my female Canadian friend. I flew in and out of Skardu, so did not experience the KKH but then I do not think I am missing much
Another friend of mine went to BP the year after, and again there were no problems.
Although once, we saw in large writing "Kill all Americans" on a wall in a village and we just drive that little bit faster...
Our trip reports....
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radson/sets/72157631234536408/with/7858094532/
http://www.summitpost.org/snow-falling-on-sirdars/811056
Thanks
Avi
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Elsewhere on the site
Alpine Conditions
This Alpine Conditions page gives a summary of what is being climbed at the moment, what is 'in' nick and what the prospects are...
19 Apr
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