UKC

Hi Folks,

Yesterday, I went out for a winter hillwalk in an attempt to "toughen myself up" for some routes later in the season. An all-walking ascent of Derry Cairngorm fitted the bill very nicely indeed with almost constant pissing rain, some knee-deep snow and navigational challenge.

To the credit of mwis and the BBC forecasts, repeated mention has been made recently about the "low confidence" in many of the recent forecasts and I have encountered such unpredictability in the past and dealt with it (sometimes by not attempting a winter climb or even summit at all).

As a regular visitor to Scotland's winter mountains since 1995-6, I do feel that the weather is gradually becoming less predictable than it used to be. Yesterday was a good case in point, with almost no rain expected in the forecast, contrary to the aforementioned soaking I got (I got wet right through to my kex for the first time for a while!)

Just wondering what folk (particularly more experienced than me) think about this,

cheers in anticipation,

M

In reply to Mark Bannan:

The only way to sensibly answer this question is with hard data. One source is the Met Office's climate anomaly maps, which show how various statistics, such as temperature, deviate from previous averages, over time.

The Decembers of 2011-2014, for example, were fairly average, but were bookended by two extreme anomalies - a very cold 2010 and a very warm 2015.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-anomalies/#?tab=climateA...

You could also look at raw data from, say, the Cairngorm weather station.

In reply to Mark Bannan:

I think it depends on what you mean by 'predictable'. With advances in weather modelling (and forecast dissemination), there is a higher expectation than say 10 years ago, but sometimes those models are simply not stable - the weather is chaotic and forecast are unreliable. Does that mean the weather is more 'unpredictable'? Compared to the times when it is less chaotic - yes, almost by definition. Compared to 10 years ago when we didn't have any decent models/forecasts - not necessarily. I suspect it's more about perception and expectations than actual weather patterns.
Of course data may prove me wrong (about the changeability of the weather at least), but my obviously fallible memory suggests that the weather now is less 'extreme' (large deviations from the norm) than it used to be. We seem to have had colder winters, hotter summers, more violent storms 20-30 years ago (in the UK, I'm not talking globally), but there was less 'fuss' made about it.

In reply to Marek:


I don't have data to hand but (apart from the colder winters) my understanding is the opposite - nowadays a general warming is leading to warmer summers and more frequent extreme weather events (storms, floods, etc).

In reply to Michael Gordon:

That's exactly what I thought! When I started climbing, winters seemed generally colder and more settled than recent ones.

I am keen to hear the opinions of folk who started winter climbing in the 70s and 80s!

In reply to planetmarshall:


It was the deviation from the forecast that I was looking for - i.e. unpredictability, not previous average conditions.

In reply to Mark Bannan:

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, warmer and more volatile is the trend, the science says man made global warming, if you are in Trumps camp then obviously there is no issue.

In relation to the weekends weather no, an incoming front with rain, but quite benign was forcast, infact so far this Autumn the weather has been less stormy than usual.
The weather men have been finding it hard to predict localised weather events lately, due to a blocking high, fronts are encroaching and moving very slowly, this is not unusual.

In reply to Mark Bannan:


I think that's the point - our ability to predict (i.e., forecast) the weather has almost certainly changed more than any change in the variability of the weather, so 'unpredictability' is more to do with our expectations than with weather itself.

In reply to Marek:

I do realise the far greater comprehensiveness of the information nowadays. I can remember simply driving north and hoping 15-20 years ago! However, I wonder if settled cold weather occurred more often in winters gone by. I have heard anecdotal evidence from climbers active 30-40 years ago that winters generally used to be colder and snowier then.

In reply to Andy Clarke1965:


Cheers for explaining this. I was wondering if such an occurrence is more unusual nowadays (assuming global warming is occurring - I certainly don't agree with that president-elect evil tw*t named after a euphemism for a trouser cough!).

In reply to Mark Bannan:

Regarding weather predictions I lost faith with BBC, Met Office, Weather.co.uk ( I think they all have the same data anyway) years ago and started trying to forge my own predictions from the data. I was terrible at it. Then I was talking to a blogger who tweets regularly about the weather and often gets it right - leading to loads of followers. His 'secret' was an app called 'Weather Pro' so I paid for it and have been using it for the last 18 months and comparing it to other sites.

Over 18 months I have found that 24 hours in advance it has been 100% accurate allowing me to make necessary adjustments to plans if needs be, it has also been very accurate in longer time frames. There has been occasions when Met Office has completely contradicted Weather Pro but I remained faithful to it resulting in a good day out. One notable occasion was in Chamonix and Weather Pro had predicted perfect conditions all week where as the other sites had predicted horrendous rain with chance of lightning etc. Me and my partner left for Aig Moine on a three day adventure, had fantastic weather to return to Cham and re joined our friends who had spent three days cragging due to the forecast.

I'm sure I've have some good luck here but in general this app seems much more accurate.

In reply to Wildabeast:
For the moment, I will still try to remain faithful to a combination of mwis and the bbc. I think on some occasions, discretion is the better part of valour! I have certainly learned this the hard way!

In reply to All:

Wondering if anyone has had any luck with the Mountain Weather UK app? Specifically, has it led you to make better decisions about venue/route choice than if you just used the usual MWIS/Met/BBC combo?

In reply to MrRiley:

Isn't it fed of met office data?

In reply to Mark Bannan:

Not sure how to answer this really. As someone who started climbing in 1959 I recall that what the weather would do on a given day was very unpredictable. Forecasts were an indication that the weather might (?) do something along the lines forecast the next day but beyond that probably not. Spent a lot of winter and summer time in Scotland in the 60's where you just got on with it regardless! Seen some longer cycles of mild winters and periodic returns to colder ones. You want stable or more predictable weather? Move - as I think some of the Creagh Dhu did after a run of bad weekends (but maybe not to N Zealand as I think they did)

In reply to uphillnow:


Maybe it hasn't changed that much, then!

>Spent a lot of winter and summer time in Scotland in the 60's where you just got on with it regardless!

Same for me in the 90s!

>Seen some longer cycles of mild winters and periodic returns to colder ones. You want stable or more predictable weather? Move - as I think some of the Creagh Dhu did after a run of bad weekends (but maybe not to N Zealand as I think they did)

I'm very happy to live in Scotland and "roll with the punches". Even in winters with fickle conditions (e.g. the last 3!), I have been happy to get some good routes in each year and I still tend to average 1 or 2 absolutely 4-star memorable days out (e.g. Funeral Fall in 2015, Vortex this year and the A'Chioch Ridge also this year). Was it John Cunningham who legged it to NZ?

In reply to Mark Bannan:

One tip I can add, the Met Office website gives detailed 7-day forecasts that are very localised. Looking up two nearby towns can give you very different forecasts so it is worth looking up several near where you are going to build up an overall impression.

Also they do forecasts for many summits which will be completely different to nearby towns. For example looking up Seathwaite and looking up Scafell Pike will give you totally different information.

So it's worth looking up a handful from the area before you go, and that gives you a much better impression of what's around.

In reply to Mark Bannan:

In general, no, the weather is getting more predictable, because we are getting better at predicting it. See http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v525/n7567/abs/nature14956.html for example. Most met agencies track their skill over time, and all have steadily improved. A five day forecast is as good now as a three-day forecast was ten years ago.

Not only that, but forecasters have got better at knowing when the weather is likely to be unpredictable, hence the "low confidence" in the forecast. Knowing when you are likely to be wrong is pretty useful.

However, in you're probably interested in a more specific question, is the weather in Scotland in the winter getting less predictable? Or, are we seeing fewer periods of settled, easier to predict conditions as a result of a changing climate? In answer to that, I have no idea.

In reply to Mark Bannan:

Another aspect of this is whether we get long settled spells, including blocking highs that allow a snowpack to survive, or a sequence of storms with dumps followed immediately by thaws. The current fashion is to tie this to the North Atlantic Oscillation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation), which shows substantial decade-scale variation, and try to develop ways of predicting the NAO a season ahead (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/winter-forecast-skill )

In reply to rif:

Very interesting and informtive! Cheers.

I have heard that the El Nino cycle affects Scottish winters.

In reply to Mark Bannan:

Obviously relying on extremely fallible memory here. I remember winters when I lived in Wales in the 80s being just as unpredictable in the day to day but we would often have longer periods of 'good' or settled conditions. Nowadays winter routes are often snatched in very short windows. Scotland was very similar, but there was always something to go at.
I had, and still have, an attitude of monitor forecast but go anyway and judge conditions and routes for yourself. Mostly you can find something, somewhere, in condition but be flexible. You might get your dream route, you may end up on a different route, different aspect, gully, ridge, different valley, different area, snow, ice, mixed, scramble, walk. It's all fun and might you might learn something new for the 'experience' bank. Even if it is that a day over indulging in the Clachaig is bound to ensure excellent conditions the next day whilst you fester unable to move or talk!

In reply to Mark Haward:


This is what I have found too - glad you agree with me.


Well said and agreed - it certainly is all fun! I also find that a day on the hill in poor weather (as opposed to dangerous) does help keep up the mountain fitness, in order to enjoy the really magical days more!