/ Scottish Winter

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tomwright1509 - on 17 Dec 2016
Hi Guys just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on if conditions might improve in scotland in the next couple of weeks. Im meant to be going up on the 2nd January but as far as i can see it looks pretty piss poor at the moment.

Thanks
1
no_more_scotch_eggs - on 17 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

Impossible to say. Weather forecasts only good for around 5 days out. Usual advice, stay flexible on destination as long as you can, and keep fingers crossed that the weather gods smile on you!
Tricadam on 17 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

Here's the MWIS medium-term outlook:

A change in weather pattern on the run up to Christmas as high pressure drifts away to eastern Europe and a series of deep Atlantic lows begin to pass between Scotland and Iceland. This will result in frequent precipitation, focussed on western mountains: from Wednesday mostly of snow on the Scottish Highlands and occasionally of snow elsewhere. Often windy. Little change envisaged immediately after Christmas, but drier conditions may then extend north across at least England and Wales.

Bring it!
Dave Perry - on 18 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

I'll have a look in the teapot or the pine cones over the fire.

Try MWIS which is as near as you are going to get.
Sophie G. - on 18 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:
There were good conditions at the end of November! I got one route and one ski in. Since then, nothing doing. So far. But three rules for a Scottish winter:

1) Be patient
2) Be ready to react quickly when the conditions come (and they will, eventually)
3) Don't give up hope till mid-April....

My reading of MWIS's latest forecast is that there won't be any point even looking till Wednesday next week. I think it will probably snow quite widely in Scotland then. So Thursday onwards there might be some snowed up rock to play on, if you don't mind climbing in wind and cloud.
Post edited at 14:02
Jamie B - on 18 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

Conditions will definitely improve, as in they cannot get any worse! And fresh snow is forecast pre-Christmas. But as to what's going to be on the ground 2 weeks away, or what the weather will be doing, it's anyone's guess. I concur with what Sophie said, keep it flexible and ask the question again 2/3 days ahead of your trip - you might get a more authoritative answer. How long are you up for? The new year period is often marked with gales but this is by no means a given.
tomwright1509 - on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to Jamie B:

Thanks for all the advice guys. I'm up there for a week so hopefully there might be a reasonable day
1
Cheese Monkey - on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

I got back on Thursday and there is absolutely f all going on. Had a great week scrambling mind
1
drunken monkey - on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

Forecast heading into xmas period looks like it has the potential to be pretty wild.

As others have said, keep an eye on MWIS
lummox - on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to drunken monkey:

Looks like it could be a repeat of the Burns' Day storm..
drunken monkey - on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to lummox:

yeah, some forecasters saying that the Low that is due to arrive off NW Scotland on Xmas Day could have a central pressure of 940mb

Still a wee while off for things to change, but its defo worthwhile keeping an eye out for people who have outdoor activities planned.
gavmac on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to drunken monkey:

Character building stuff. That's more like it.
drunken monkey - on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to gavmac:

haha - aye
Tricadam on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:
If all else fails, be sure to check whether the Glasgow ice wall is in before committing. Currently very much early season conditions: http://www.ukclimbing.com/forums/t.php?t=655106
Post edited at 12:43
Tricadam on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

Some further good news: snow-forecast.com has further upped its predictions in terms of quantity of white stuff coming down: http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scotland?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3to6...
streapadair - on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

Get a copy of the Express, their 'Brrrrr, coldest winter for 300 years on the way' story must be about due.

Then you can use it to kindle the bothy fire as you watch the rain sluicing down.
TheseKnivesMan - on 19 Dec 2016
In reply to streapadair:

Haven't posted on ukc in ages!

If the GFS forecast runs for the days around Christmas play out as they say they are going to then going outside to walk the dog might be ill advised let alone climbing anything.
Siward on 20 Dec 2016
In reply to streapadair:

Also, contrary to what others of said, best to ignore MWIS. Often outlandishy pessimistic- the only option is to get out there and rub your nose in it. There's always the pub/bothy/tent.
9
French Erick - on 20 Dec 2016
In reply to Siward:

> Also, contrary to what others of said, best to ignore MWIS. Often outlandishy pessimistic- the only option is to get out there and rub your nose in it. There's always the pub/bothy/tent.

"ignore" seems dangerous, what about, "take it with a pinch of salt but bear it in mind"? I use it all the time, I just learned to interpret it for my own needs.

I agree it can be a bit on the pessimistic side at times though ;)
Siward on 20 Dec 2016
In reply to French Erick:

Fair comment. What I really meant was, save in obvious circumstances, don't stay home on the strength of it.
Tricadam on 20 Dec 2016
In reply to French Erick:

> "ignore" seems dangerous, what about, "take it with a pinch of salt but bear it in mind"? I use it all the time, I just learned to interpret it for my own needs.

> I agree it can be a bit on the pessimistic side at times though ;)

I like going with it for this reason: always more pleasant to get a pleasant surprise than an unpleasant one.
French Erick - on 21 Dec 2016
In reply to French Erick:

> "ignore" seems dangerous, what about, "take it with a pinch of salt but bear it in mind"? I

Deary me...spelling going to pots. Should obviously read "bare"

1
jonnie3430 - on 21 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

There's snow on the hills today though it felt warm and I'm not sure how frozen the ground is below it, looks to be down to about 400m on the hills to the south of Inverness. I drove the a9 yesterday and it was -4 as I was passing the southern Cairngorm's at about nine in the morning, so there is some hope that the higher hills have a frozen base for their snow.
davidbeynon on 21 Dec 2016
In reply to tomwright1509:

I climbed Fingers Ridge on Sunday. Perfect summer conditions, if a slightly damp first pitch.
Michael Gordon - on 21 Dec 2016
In reply to French Erick:

> Deary me...spelling going to pots. Should obviously read "bare"

You were right the first time! The latter does however well describe this season so far.
AlH - on 21 Dec 2016
In reply to jonnie3430:

The ground yesterday above the CIC Hut on Ben Nevis was at least half frozen before the snow began. There were lots of ice streaks around and the ground was 'crunchy'. https://www.facebook.com/climbwhenyoureready.mountaineering/media_set?set=a.1265495766826871.1000009...
Allovesclimbin - on 21 Dec 2016
In reply to Michael Gordon:

Winter climbing is a bit like Christmas. The build up starts earlier every year . It's still very very early season ! Often the best years don't get going for a couple more months ...
2
Michael Gordon - on 21 Dec 2016
In reply to Allovesclimbin:

It's early season but soon it will be mid-season without much yet done!
James Jackson on 21 Dec 2016
In reply to Michael Gordon:

Now, while I am generally looking for snowy skiable stuff rather than wet frozen climbable stuff these days, last season really kicked off in mid Jan, and thereafter was very good. Let's all be a bit zen and learn from Wayne's World: "If you book them, they will come."
Allovesclimbin - on 22 Dec 2016
In reply to Michael Gordon:
Mid season would be mid Feb , or so. Usually don't bother with winter hits till later Jan or Feb ( obvious exceptions for mega cold snaps ie 1995 / 96 )
As for the Ben , mid season is early mid March !
Post edited at 00:42
1
James Jackson on 07 Jan 2017
In reply to Allovesclimbin:

Skiing on the Ben usually goes on well in to June. The gullies are in at the moment...
Tricadam on 07 Jan 2017
In reply to James Jackson:

Agree that e.g. Number 3 and Number 4 likely to be skiable currently. I climbed Number 2 today and it felt like spring snow before and after the ice bit.
James Jackson on 07 Jan 2017
In reply to Tricadam:

Ah, I was talking about putting crampons on and wandering up them - but yes, definitely skiable too. I haven't as they tend to full of climbers this time of year!
Tricadam on 07 Jan 2017
In reply to James Jackson:

There certainly won't be any climbers on them tomorrow, James, if you fancy it ;-)
1
James Jackson on 07 Jan 2017
In reply to Tricadam:

I think I'll give it a miss thanks! I have skis not water-skis...
Dell on 08 Jan 2017
In reply to TheseKnivesMan:

> Haven't posted on ukc in ages!

> ...going outside to walk the dog might be ill advised let alone climbing anything.

You wait ages and then grace us with a prophecy!

(Given what happened to that lost dog walking couple last week)


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