UKC

From what I've seen, there are at least three new bouldering gyms opening in London in the next few months. One in Harrow, one in Tottenham Hale and one in Hackney. That's obviously a positive development even though all three are inconvenient for me.

Does anyone know how to estimate what number of gyms can be supported based on distance and population density? It seems like someone must have come up with a formula to justify an investment. I'm mostly curious if there will be even more gyms opening or if we should expect some to go out of business.

In reply to HakanT:
As far as I know - there's no simple way (or else there would be almost no risk with opening a new business) to calculate whether to build a bouldering wall or not. You naturally have to have some assumptions, because you can't do research on your customers because you have no customers.

Probably some good places to start are to visit a variety of bouldering walls and get some info on busiest times, and how people arrive, and whether they look like they came from home or after work. This you can use to get an estimate of how important 'transport flux' is - i.e. which streams of nearby public transport will contribute to your customer base and by how much, assuming a standard 'how interested people are in bouldering' rate (which you might want to check - e.g. the average income and age will determine how likely people are to boulder).

A second tool which is a rough gauge of popularity is google search trends:
Interestingly the google search trend for bouldering is close to flat: https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bouldering
This shows that bouldering has not really taken off (yet, if it does). So you could be onto a winner by investing early.
Compare that to say the keyword 'vegan', which is exponential over the same time period (which indicates something that has taken off).
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=vegan

The Olympic popularity surge has yet to occur, and may take many years to occur (if it even does). Because it has never occurred before for this particular 'sport', you can't quantify the effect accurately. You might want to assume that other new Olympic sports are a good model for this, but ever since seeing this curve - my ideas about what will and won't become popular became changed.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=vinyl
A bathtub curve in the wild.
(e.g. if you had predicted in 2011 how popular vinyl would be in 2016, you'd have guessed some amount 3x lower than it actually was - which is what actually happened, and that drove the price even more higher because the supply was low due to projected demand being low).

Lastly here's a trend which had some kind of exponential popularity, but has began to decay heavily (hehehe):
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=zumba
Look at those little spikes - those people thinking 'hey I'll get fit in January - no more fat me! I'll be zumba fit'. But the data knows that's a lie.
I would suspect (but have no data to support) that this meant the closure of many zumba gyms and classes.

So with all of this in mind - it's hard to say. For more bouldering gyms to open and to stay open, there will need to be an increase in popularity and sustain it. Personally I think that it will get an increase in popularity within the next 10 years - and that it will be sustained growth.

In reply to SenzuBean:

Judging by the business of the London walls I frequent... yes. Issue may be that peak hours are always going to be the peak hours and the rest of the time most of them are dead.

In reply to SenzuBean:

Good insight, thank you. The trends seem to support my empirical observation that the gyms are getting progressively more popular. I guess I need to drop my plan for a Zumba and Boulder gym...

It's all about location.
Open a 2 rooms bouldering gym in City and you will have clients no matter how bad routes are going to be.

P.S.: I really hope for a new lead wall in London. Dreams..

In reply to HakanT:
Following on from my initial reply - if I expand the time window for bouldering in search trends - it has become less popular and then began to regain in popularity (another bathtub curve!): https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bouldering

I wasn't around then - but maybe someone has some ideas why it was more popular to search for it in 2004 than 2009? Totally odd.

In reply to SenzuBean:

related trend #5 - United Kennel Club - ha ha

In reply to HakanT:
Best estimate is probably one commercial gym per 150,000 to 250,000 of local population.

In short, stacks of scope for expansion in and around London. None of the newer bouldering walls will be in any danger of going bust.

In reply to The Ex-Engineer:

Yeah - a good example is The Arch - they had a busy bouldering wall, then they opened another 100m away, now they have two busy bouldering walls.

If you build it, they will come

In reply to The Ex-Engineer:

Munich, pop. around 1.3 million, has two large bouldering walls and five reasonable sized modern routes walls with decent-to-good bouldering sections (plus various older smaller esoterica). All busy all the time on weekday evenings & rainy weekends. That would about match your estimate.

In reply to HakanT:

Any details on the one in Harrow - could be useful when I'm stuck in Mill Hill

In reply to BarrySW19:


Wasnt the plan originally that the old one would be closed?

In reply to KevinD:


I think the original one - under a railway arch - did close. This was several years ago

In reply to AlanLittle:

Climbing in Germany is much more of a mainstream activity. Membership of DAV is about one million and the associated Austrian club about 500,000. Compare this to the BMC with about 80,000.

In reply to Chris the Tall:


yeah. I was thinking about the biscuit and when they first opened building one which was after the arch had closed.

In reply to HakanT:

you can do a Fermi estimation.
while not easy , they often produce close to accurate in magnitude results.

In reply to caver:

Er, no, compare it to the BMC + Ramblers + YHA + ...

In reply to AlanLittle:

But then you'd have to add the DJH (two million members), which is the German equivalent of the YHA and the Wanderverein, equivalent of the Ramblers with 600,00+

In reply to HakanT:

How about
There are approximately 100 climbing walls all over North London, all busy
There are 2 climbing walls (Zone 6) and 3 bouldering walls (Zone 1) in South London

ergo, please build a Lead wall + bouldering wall in Zone 3 South London

In reply to Chris the Tall:

Here you go:
http://www.vauxwallclimbing.co.uk/news/new-north-west-london-mega-boulderin...

In reply to trouserburp:

I'm not building one, just wondering how many more I can expect to pop up. If I were to build one, it would be Zone 3, SW for purely selfish reasons.

In reply to HakanT:

Where's the new one in Hackney?

In reply to JMGLondon:

Here: https://hackneywickboulder.co.uk/
Apparently they already opened.

In reply to SenzuBean:


Maybe there's overlap between boulderers and the early adopters of the internet?

In reply to trouserburp:


nah North London/central London is far more important. Preferably quick walk from victoria/circle line stations.

In reply to HakanT:

any details on the one in Tottenham Hale?

In reply to Jus:

No Zumba, but they will have yoga: http://www.ukclimbing.com/gear/news.php?id=9005

In reply to caver:

The Germans, Austrians and Swiss like their clubs and associations in a big way, though. I'd venture that the vast majority of UK climbers are *not* BMC members - particularly not those who climb only indoors.

In reply to SenzuBean:

That's an absolutely brilliant tool that I never knew existed.

Thought this one was hilarious: https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F02zkqj

In reply to JayK:


That is brilliant!

In reply to humptydumpty:


Hmmm, 2004 wasn't really 'early-adopter' of the internet though was it. Although maybe it was.

In reply to SenzuBean:


Maybe not to you, you big boulderer 2004 was the year that facebook launched, the year that gmail launched. The internet was a bit different before that, and definitely not as mainstream.

In reply to Neil Williams:

But does that make a 920,000 short fall? I doubt it, somewhat. Even taking in to account population percentages it's still way, way short.

In reply to mrphilipoldham:

It could well do. In the UK most people are not a member of a formal club of any kind. In Germany, most people *are* - it's a fairly big cultural difference.