In reply to Jon Stewart:
> If you're expecting whole swathes of established science to be wrong, I guarantee disappointment.
> Lots of individual experiments will prove difficult to replicate. But the meaningful conclusions drawn from massive amounts of evidence all combined - stuff like evolution, big bang, climate change - is solid as a rock.
Entire fields of social and medical science are being thrown out of the window. Have a read of what's been chucked out - it's quite interesting for someone on the sidelines
I did emphasize the softer sciences, which is overwhelmingly what is used by lefties for policy thought. We often quote things like for example, 'science shows meaningful rehabilitation of prisoners is safer than just locking them up as cheaply as possible' - but since social science is on shaky ground, what can we meaningfully say on the subject now? Economics as you mention is a bedrock of modern policy (I agree it's not a hard science.) - but also has major flaws.
In terms of harder sciences - we have zero clue about dark matter and dark energy. All we have is a massive explanatory hole in the data that we used dark energy / dark matter to fudge over. Supersymmetry is almost dead as a theory - so we've got little clue. This is rarely acknowledged - as if it's a great shame to admit that we simply don't know, but might one day.
> I don't think there's much difficulty determining the truth where there are good tools to find out what the truth is.
What kind of tools though? As an example, I'm having a hard time figuring out whether the US or the Russian side of the Syrian conflict is more accurate. They're almost polar opposite, and without becoming an expert (I have a job, so that's not feasible) - I'm left to just trust one or the other. I'd have to read thousands of twitter accounts of individuals who live in Aleppo to figure out or something like that.
> Almost all political views on how things work suffer from the same counterfactual problem. Did austerity fix or break the economy? We don't know, we don't know what would have happened if we'd done differently. Is the education system the root of the problem of unemployment in the North East? We don't know, we don't have a comparison.
I agree. But I think there are meaningful answers to these questions - but we haven't really got the ability to use them. There are properties of chaotic systems (mathematical systems) that are totally unpredictable (such as the future state at time t), but there are also properties that are totally predictable - such as what percentage of future states are in the secondary orbit plane. This type of analysis I think would give important answers. Same with markov chains - we can give some very concrete answers, and others we cannot say at all.
> I think it's important to distinguish clearly those places where the truth is accessible and real, like in climate change and evolution, and where there truth exists in some abstract sense but can't be uncovered, as in the world of policy.
Well again - these problems are more nuanced than you make out. How do you
prove climate change is real, to an individual who isn't well versed in science? We can show data and graphs, but without the scientific understanding - there's no way to discern the actual truth. Who made the data and the graphs - can they be trusted? That's when heuristics such as "who would have the most to benefit, is probably lying the most", "who seems the shadiest" come in.
In terms of evolution - it's not a complete theory of life. We have only a rough sketch of how abiogenesis might've occurred - and only circumstantial evidence. Most moderate christians agree with evolution - but they are also keen to explain the beginning of life, which evolution cannot do at the moment. The truth is we have only guesses as to how abiogenesis might've occurred - and it's this that I feel is the most contentious issue. I cannot count the number of times I've seen 'educated people' try and explain that evolution explains everything.