UKC

So, what did you think? In among an awful lot of waffle (standard politician stuff so i don't hold it against her), i pulled out:

1. Common travel area with Rep. Ireland
2. No membership of the EU but participation in specific EU programmes with an "appropriate contribution" to EU coffers (but the days of "vast contributions" are over)
3. Tailor-made membership of the customs union with an opt-out on the Common External Tariff (to allow us to do trade deals with other countries)
4. Free trade agreement with the EU giving special focus to auto exports and financial services.
5. Control over immigration
6. Rights for eu nationals in the UK and vice versa.
7. A transitional arrangement
8. Co-operation on security and intelligence, (and science and technology). .

In terms of her negotiating flourish, her interest in the integrity of the Single market was both entirely logical - it would certainly not in Britain's interest for the EU to break up - as well has having more than a hint of "nice union you've got here. It would be a terrible pity if anything were to happen to it....". She also seemed to be dangling the the threat of Britain becoming a tax haven if the EU doesn't play ball:"[If we don't get a deal] We would have the freedom to set the competitive tax rates and embrace the policies that would attract the world's best companies".

Did i miss anything?

In reply to Bob Hughes:



That much of it isn't for her alone to decide so we don't really know what will happen, other than Brexit is brexit (or is it red white & blue?)

In reply to Bob Hughes:


I don't think so. There's a fair bit of brinkmanship and I've no idea who will win that. Most commentary is tainted by emotive nationalism, or an emotive reaction against nationalism (which I am sometimes guilty of), so I think we really will have to wait and see.

In reply to Bob Hughes:

At least we have an indication of what the desired future looks like. Its now down to discussion, negotiation skills, sabre rattling and bluffing to see how we go forward. Its a two way street and UK holds just as many trump cards (no pun intended) as the EU. I was personally encouraged by her strongly made point that we will not tolerate any spiteful punitive action from the EU, because I am pretty certain there will be plenty of threats of that, if only so that EU leaders can look good to their home audiences.

In reply to Doug:


yes although i thought she covered that quite well - recognising it as a fact without sounding beholden to it.

In reply to cragtaff:


we're clearly going to have to give them some raw meat they can take back to their electorates on that one. Not sure what that would be but suspect it will be around membership of the customs union which is seems the fuzziest part of her plan.

In reply to cragtaff:

There's a bottom line for the EU though: the UK *cannot* end up with a better deal outside compared to inside the EU, such are the stakes. So the deal will have to be "punitive" to some degree; for the EU, the objectives are to achieve that punishment while minimising the "self harm". If we won't sign up, we've got a lot of work to do rebuilding the economy on the "bargain basement" model, which is obviously a threat to our working conditions, environmental protections, etc - our quality of life as UK citizens. I don't see much comfort to be found in the welcoming/deeply protectionist arms of Trump, either, sorry.

In reply to cragtaff:

What trump cards do we hold? Our exports to the E.U. are worth about 13% of U.K. GDP, imports are worth about 3-4% of E.U. GDP. There aren't major geographical obstacles to relocating the financial services we sell to the E.U. many E.U. countries would be more than happy to help those businesses relocate. The E.U. citizens who come to the U.K. largely do so to work and therefore contribute taxes to the U.K. Treasury. A fair proportion of U.K. citizens living in the E.U. are retired, whilst they contribute some spending to the local economies, being older they also generally use medical support services more. I don't know if that means a net drain on the finances of places like Spain, but I doubt they would be sorry to see them return to the U.K. We are a member of NATO, we have a responsibility to protect other NATO countries so we can't just say, 'it's our army and you can't play with us'.

In reply to cragtaff:

One man's 'spiteful punitive action' is another man's 'political necessity'.

In reply to Jon Stewart:

The bargain basement model is just lower corporation tax, it does not mean different working conditions.You can have one without the other.....

In reply to neilh:

I'm not in a position to know, but is a cut in corporation tax sufficient to "remodel our economy" and attract business away from the EU with the advantages of the single market? It sounds pretty weak to me.

In reply to EddInaBox:

That is one way of looking at it. The counter view is;

1, Uk is the remaing EU27's largest market
2. You misunderstand London's role as a global financial centre.Its not a piddly little local financial centre.Its not easy for somebody else to take that over.More likely to go back to NY.
3. Spain has already said that UK citizens there are Ok .
4. Despite all the hype I doubt any existing EU citizens are going to be booted out.
5.Defense is a strength, a card for us to play.

Despite voting remain, I am pragmatic, too many remainers are now doomsayers.

In reply to Jon Stewart:

I cannot wait to become a rainy, polluted version of the cayman islands myself

In reply to neilh:

I'm not suggesting that we have nothing to negotiate with, just that we don't have that many trump cards. The E.U. will still want to do business with the U.K. but we certainly don't hold the trump card. If we were to use the E.U. citizens living in the U.K. as some sort of bargaining tool, there would be counter strategies using U.K. citizens resident in the E.U. Defence is a strength, what can we do with it, we can't threaten to withdraw support for our NATO partners?

In reply to neilh:

All fair points Neil and I agree with them all. But I don't think the negotiations are going to be remotely pragmatic. A few in europe want us to fail it seams, and they all get a vote on it equally.

In reply to neilh:

Probably not, but the way EU citizens in the UK are getting treated is completely shameful. My wife is a German citizen, she has felt at home here for 20 years, brought up two children here, she has a PhD and teaches in a University. Suddenly, its gone from feeling at home as a citizen of the EU to reading in the newspapers about people in a similar circumstance who applied for UK citizenship getting an 85 page form requiring details of every trip out of the UK in 20 the last 20 years followed by rejection and formal letters to prepare to leave. This kind of fascist bullsh*t tears families apart and should be totally unacceptable.

In my view Theresa May is an opportunistic sack of sh*t, she is playing a masterful game of party politics outmaneuvering UKIP, Labour and the SNP by playing to the fascist populism of the Daily Mail and Telegraph with no concern for how much damage it will do.

In reply to snoop6060:

My view is there will be some points we win on, and some we lose on.

Some in Europe want it to fail, just like some in the UK.

I had the same conversation with a firend of mine who works for the Commission. he , although English, was adopting the European hardline. I told him not to be an idiot, and said it will be 50/50. He ended up smiling and agreeing.

In reply to neilh:

It's a shopping list designed to appeal to the uk audience, whether it's achievable or not is a different matter. I wouldn't overstate our negotiating clout we're a lot smaller now than our competitors and with size comes power

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

I have German friends couple of houses away. they are not bothered about it all.East Germans set up business over here, done well for themselves, 3 children now.

That case in the Guardian was sorted out anyway. It does help if that person had provided the right documentation............

In reply to JimR:

Of course it was!That is stating the obvious.

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Agree 100%.

We're having to put most of our plans for the future in the UK on hold (my wife's ILR seems unlikely to come through before the UK has left the EU, if the reports of the backlog are correct - and she can't even start applying for citizenship until that's done).

The best we can think to do is to sell our house and rent for a while, until we know more about what's happening here or find a good alternative in Sweden; not that we want to move there, it's just probably the second best option for us. I don't know what to do with the money - is it likely to get harder to move it when the UK leaves the EU? Are we best keeping half of it here and moving half of it to Sweden?

In reply to skog:


And how many kronor will you get for it in a year or two... Sorry to hear you're in such a shit position and I don't mean to heap extra concerns on you, it shouldn't be like this.
jk

In reply to neilh:


Could you provide a list of every time you have been out of the UK in the last 20 years with dates, if you were travelling abroad 5 or 6 times most years? That's not a reasonable request it is complete BS. The reasonable thing would be to give every EU citizen that was resident in the UK on the day of the referendum dual citizenship.

The hidden reason for the treatment of the EU citizens in the UK is that the Tories know if they get a vote they are in trouble.

In reply to skog:

Similar story with myself & French partner, in theory we retire in the next couple of years but what will happen to my (British) pension if, as likely, we stay in France ? And should I sell my house in Scotland now while there's no problems in transferring money or keep it as a safety net. Or maybe just hope that Scotland becomes independent & somehow in the EU and solves our problems rather than creating more ?

Too many questions & too few answers.

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Surprisingly when completing a business visa for Russia and India I had to provide that sort of information.......it is a right pain in the backside.

In reply to Doug:

You are faced with most of those issues financial issues on money anyway in respect of exchange rates, it is not a particualry unique situation whether we are in or out.Do you keep £ or Euros or switch to $. Not easy decisions , but to blame it on Brexit is pushing it a bit.

In reply to neilh:


The thing is, it's a bit more than that - it's actually impossible for us to provide accurately, we just don't have that information. We tried getting it by FOI request, and by simple polite request, but they can't supply it either - so we've had to go with our best attempt at piecing it together, and hope we haven't made any mistakes or omissions (we almost certainly have), and hope that it's viewed reasonably rather than by someone looking for excuses to reject applications.

And it isn't specifically 20 years, it's since the applicant first came to the UK - so it's actually easier for people who've been here for less time. It's 19 years for my wife; I've no idea what someone who has been here for 50 years is supposed to do.

And this is just to get permanent residence, not citizenship - they changed the rules in 2015 so that EU and EEA citizens have to do this first, too. (And pumped up all the prices massively - it's almost as if it was all planned.)

In reply to jkarran:

Thanks. Yeah, exchange rates are another matter, but I suppose that much is always true.

In reply to neilh:

Well the drop in the value of the pound seems Brexit related but might have happened anyway, however the possible restrictions/controls on money transfers and the almost inevitable additional paperwork for either me to get French nationality/residency or my partner to have the right to live in the UK are totally due to Brexit

In reply to Doug:

I am at a loss over your comments on money transfers.I see no change in currency in/out. Enlighten me.

I do foreign currency everyday, I am intrigued.

In reply to skog:

Would it no be better just to wait until it is decided what they are going to do on the whole issue.? When all said and done they may waive any requirement to provide that sort of information ( its probably just as much a pain for them as you).

Understand that is difficult.

In reply to neilh:


Hi Neil - most of us don't, so perhaps you can help clear up some of our nervousness?

Might we face restrictions or taxes on moving larger sums of money (for house purchase, or pension funds) into or out of the UK once it leaves the single market?

I know some countries do this, but I honestly have no idea how common it is. It's just one additional thing we may have to deal with which we didn't have to think about before; I'll be delighted if you can tell us it's near certain to be no problem.

In reply to neilh:


We used to think so, but now don't think we can risk that. The day the UK leaves the single market, my wife has no right to work here or to use the health service (and a variety of other services), unless laws are put in place to change that.

We've had specific announcements that there are no guarantees on this, so the sensible thing seems to be to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.

I think it's more likely to work out OK for us than not, but with every new announcement I get less sure, and there is clearly a real risk, given the pressures on the government to 'improve' the migration figures.

In reply to neilh:

It's also obvious she won't get it all

In reply to skog:

Have they said they are going to throw people out who are already here?

I can understand if you moved here after the vote.

In reply to neilh:


They don't have to. We aren't going to stay if my wife has no right to work and can't use the NHS.

Those rights end by default when the UK leaves the EU, and we have been told they'd "like" to guarantee them, but can't.

In reply to skog:

No.

In reply to neilh:


Existing EU residents are already being booted out.

A large number of people are applying for permanent residency in preparation for whatever happens, that is not a requirement currently for EU residents, but likely it will become one. One of the requirements is to send extensive evidence of continuous residency in the UK for 5 years, which have to be originals. No copies, no printouts.

So in these days of the internet, a very large number of people do not have those, and even those that did have a paper trail never thought of keeping them for a full 5 years. Worse even, is partners who are houseparents who do not work, have no bills to their name, etc.

The result, a lot of people who have lived here for decades are being told to leave the country after doing the application because of unsatisfactory evidence of residency. That's not hype, that is happening right now.

It is expected that post-brexit the same yardstick will be used to 'allow' current EU citizens to stay. If it comes to that i will personally be unable to provide all that evidence. I receive no paper bank statements, or paper bills, being self-employed i receive no payslips, my current house rent contract was done 8 years ago and let to roll, so i have no actual contract to show off for the last 7 years, neither do i get receipts from paying the rent as it all gets done online. Even if i start hoarding documents now, 1 or 2 years worth until the UK is out are as good as none. So chances are, by the end of this i may indeed be booted out. Time to start learning French or German i guess

In reply to JimR:

And vice versa for the EU.

Its about a 50/50 plus/minus.

Both sides playing to their strengths and ignoring their weaknesses. What do people expect?

In reply to Mr Lopez:

Worth tracing back the articles in the Guardian on this.They have been following similar cases.

Of course well worth writing to your MP, that is what they are there for.

In reply to Mr Lopez:

Although it is worth pointing out (in case the recipients are unaware) that an EU citizen who receives such a letter is legally entitled to ignore it, and the home office will tell you so (if you ever manage to make contact with them).

I think that it is just a standard template response to a failed residency application that was never an issue prior to the referendum and was never meant for EU citizens.

So, personal problems aside, I'm quite curious how this ...

1. Common travel area with Rep. Ireland [EU member with a significant land border with the UK]
5. Control over immigration

... can work.

It appears, on the face of it, to require a 'hard' border between NI and Great Britain.

Will we see a new "jungle" camp develop at Larne?

In reply to cragtaff:

Yep, hopefully she's put to bed any risk of the EU threatening us by, erm, issuing her own threat first.

In reply to neilh:


If there is to be a difference in the way those two groups are treated then one is going to have to prove which group one belongs to.

I moved here about 8 years ago and I wouldn't stand a chance of accurately remembering or documenting my movements over those years. In fact I tried after 3-4 years for a tax issue and I could do no better than the odd bank statement showing when I'd bought travel using a card.

A lot of families are going to be torn apart or driven into exile by this in the coming decade.
jk

In reply to skog:

Eire isn't in Shengen so any camp if it were to form would mainly contain EU nationals trying to smuggle themselves into England/Wales/Scotland which seems unlikely given an EU-UK tourist visa to overstay will likely be easier to come by than a ride on a truck axle.
jk

In reply to skog:

1. Common travel area with Rep. Ireland [EU member with a significant land border with the UK]


Curious indeed, with Ireland not in the Schengen there will already passport checks on entry from mainland Europe, but obviously they do zero screening of EU nationals as to their intentions. So future border solutions are a soft border with voluntary checks etc.. much like there is between Norway and Sweden, where trucks pull over and 99% of traffic flows through.

Or the UK accepts that many EU workers could drift into NI and a hard border is established on all flights and ferries from NI to mainland UK. Migration into NI is the tolerated or accepted failure of this system.

In reality, I think it's all pre-negotiation hard ball and talks will result in a customs union of some type, the UK will accept a modified version of free movement of workers (not job seekers etc..), with perhaps an annual quota. Future workers will have to prove they have a job to go to that can't be filled by UK workers or means to support themselves etc... Perhaps something special for seasonal workers.

In reply to MarkJH:

Spot on

In reply to jkarran:
If I had a pound for everyone who expressed their concern to me about all the refugees who could be EU citizens in 5 years' time and would then head to the UK - not to mention that flood of Turkish people they had been told was coming - I'd have ... well, I could take the family out for a really good dinner on it, anyway.


(Edit - the "jungle" bit was flippancy on my behalf, sorry!)

In reply to Mr Lopez:

Can you link where it says you need paper originals for EU residents?


Care to link, lack of evidence? Everyone will have something.


Any evidence of any country require paper originals for EU citizens? If you've been working legally for any number of years, employed by others or self, then you invoice, NI and Tax trail will be as long as your arm. Even if you burnt every pay slip, bank statement, receipt.... your employer will have records.

Now if you came to the UK illegally, worked black or cash for 7 years, sofa surfed or slept in caravans in fields, sent all your money home with one of those transfer companies like western union, then your only trail will be your flights, but perhaps that isn't the sort of client the UK is looking for?

In reply to jkarran:

As I said earlier, providing this type of information is a pain in the backside..but not unusual for visas etc into other countries.Try filling in a Russian business visa form which ask you list all countries visited and dates in the last 10 years.At least you have a starting point with non EU countries and the stamps in your passports. But EU countries becomes ridiculous.

Hype on the torn apart - you or I just do not know.

In reply to summo:


Sure... until they don't actually turn up for the picking season and farmers in comfortable tory seats start going bust, their crops rotting in the ground and their EU subsidies in hiatus.
jk

In reply to summo:

inter alia:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/06/brexit-dutch-woman-told-le...

Given I lost my job through redundancy and am over 60 an economic requirement to qualify my wife to stay would be hard to fulfil. She hasn't built up any personal wealth as she stayed at home to raise the children who are still at school.

I can indeed imagine what this family has been through

In reply to summo:


Application form available here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/apply-for-a-document-certifying-...

Guidance notes:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/5...

See page 1, "Unless otherwise stated, please send original documents only. Photocopies are not acceptable. If you’re unable to send the original, please explain why.
We’re unlikely to be able to approve your application without sight of the original document."

In reply to summo:

you and neilh need to put yourself in other people's shoes sometimes

In reply to neilh:


It's not ridiculous or a pain, it's impossible. As I said, I have actually tried.


We bloody well should know, there should not be one scrap of doubt!
jk

In reply to wercat:

I said it was a pain in the backside, but not unusal... and clarifying for somebody their wrong views on money transfers..so perhaps I am helping instead of blowing it up out into the ridiculous.

In reply to jkarran:

I agree, but I also know friends who are in European countries who are in the same boat....it's not just May's problem.....

In reply to neilh:
knowing what you have to provide for a trip out of the EU is not the same as being required to find loads of documentation newly required, when you originally came to settle in the UK at a time when there was every right to expect to be able so to do and lead a family life underpinned by a legal right to remain

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:


Agree with all of the above. Well put.

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
Even as a non-EU citizen, naturalised as a Brit, I don't feel at home in England any more.

I left after the vote, but with the intention of returning. The last 6 months away have made me seriously reconsider. Looking from the outside in, England now looks downright unpleasant and unwelcoming to any foreigners, and the underlying nationalist rhetoric from politicians and public makes the country look incredibly small-minded.

Around a large expat community here (who are welcomed) I struggle to find anyone who see's our current actions as being substantially more enlightened than voting for Trump.

In reply to wercat:

You would be a bit scuppered than if subsequently you had to apply for a visa for another country outside the Eu and were required to fill in that information.Let us say you had to go to Russia from the Uk, you would have to provide it.

As I said , its a pain in the back side.I got the shock of my life when I had to provide it took me 2 days......so my sympathies

In reply to jkarran:


Or they employ local people and folk in the shops start paying a fair price for UK produce?

In reply to David Martin:


It looks the same from the inside out too. It's embarrasing to be British right now given that most of what I valued in the country is being systematically destroyed.

In reply to skog:

if you lived legally and worked for any of the 5 plus years in the UK, I would be a little surprised if anyone could not obtain copies of these (taken from the links you provided).

„h Letters or other documents from government departments or agencies, for example HM Revenue and Customs, Department for Work and Pensions, DVLA, TV Licensing
„h Letters or other documents from your GP, a hospital or other local health service about medical treatments, appointments, home visits or other medical matters
„h Bank statements/letters
„h Building society savings books/letters
„h Council tax bills or statements
„h Electricity and/or gas bills or statements
„h Water rates bills or statements
„h Mortgage statements/agreement
„h Tenancy agreement(s)
„h Telephone bills or statements.
Previous residence documents
„h Previous EEA residence documents, such as registration certificates, residence cards, etc
„h Previous biometric residence permits, if you have any
„h Previous passports, travel documents or national identity cards you¡¦ve held since living in the UK.

In reply to wercat:


I can, I have permanent residency in another EU country, I have been through that exact same process. Filled in the forms, supplied the documents or copies of etc.. been to their office, spoken with counter staff there. I did that with migration and the tax office.

In reply to wercat:


I think it's very hard for people who aren't being directly affected by this to understand just how stressful it is for those who are, though - the UK hasn't been the sort of place that treats ordinary people this way for a long time.

We constantly get "oh, I don't think that will happen", even when talking about things that we've already had to do.

In reply to neilh:


That's not really the issue. Its a question of whether you are wise to go ahead building a life here (house, work, relationships) if at some point in the next 2 years you are going to be told to bugger off, or be faced with a visa application process that carries no certainty of being successful.

Overlooked in all this, what about British citizens who would like to spend time working in the EU? For all but the most highly educated and in-demand professions, there's a good chance that will be going out the window. Your kids want to work in a French ski chalet over winter? Time spent in Spain or Italy? Maybe just parking up somewhere doing casual work in order to learn the language?

In reply to summo:


https://www.google.co.uk/


https://www.google.co.uk/


https://www.google.co.uk/


20


Self


A print out of an invoice i make is not accepted evidence. Anyone could do 200 years worth of invoices at home and print them in 5 minutes


Only proves i have done work in the UK in those years, not that i have worked/lived in the UK continously the whole year. A self-assesement for £25000 earned at £500/week for 50 weeks is identical to one for £25000 earned in a single day.


Self-employed for the last 9 years. So no pay-slips.


Stopped paper bank statements more than 10 years ago. Printing online statements is not accepted unless stamped by the bank. My bank (Lloyds) don't stamp statements and they are not required to do so, regardless, online statements don't go back 5 years.

> receipt

Receipts all online. Printed mail receipts are not accepted.

> your employer will have records

Self-employed


And don't forget the selling drugs, stealing puppies, nicking your jobs, lowering your wages and causing road congestion in the M25

In reply to David Martin:

It is why I voted to remain.

I know kids who are already planning to doing that next year, does not seem to have put them off.Kids will always find a way.

In reply to summo:

The documents have to be in the applicant's name. It's a bit of a problem if, for example, their partner paid the utility bills while they bought the shopping. Or if you don't know which bank/energy supplier/whatever you were with 5 years ago.

We've managed the documents, I think (it took about 3 days work), but the 19 years of travel details are impossible - for example, we don't actually know what date my wife first arrived in the UK, just the month.

In reply to skog:


but even in liberal Sweden, a country you know well, you need to register with migration within 90days of arrival as an EU job seeker, if you start work them immediately. If you don't want to live forever on temporary residency ( ie renewing it every few years), then you need to apply for permanent, or then nationality after 5 years. I don't think it is that the UK is suddenly being harsh, it just has not been doing what other countries have been doing all along?

For my residency here I supplied address paperwork, UK mortgage stuff, bank statements, proof of income in both countries (past and projected) etc.. for my self employed tax status they often carry out credit checks in both countries as well as all the documents I provided for residency. I didn't moan, I just accepted it to be part of the process to be in the country I chose to come to, I have nothing to hide so supplied what was needed and it was all done very quickly.

In reply to skog:

didn't she register for NI etc.. on arrival? Old emails? Passport renewals? Driving Licence? Doctors? Important stuff I never delete, anything related to property, insurance, flights and hire cars... have a trail going back over a decade. Perhaps it's because I'm self employed I just tend to keep everything anyway, folders of the stuff, which every so often get scaled down a little.

In reply to summo:

But you knew that in advance... How would you feel if now they pass a law saying that you have to provide a number of documents from 10 years ago which you don't have, or face leaving the country?

In reply to summo: im not sure the man on the street will want to pay more for food though they may not get much choice. My family are in east anglia and I've discussed this with them. There aren't enough local folk to do the work - it is still labour intensive and i doubt they'll go back to the days i remember when i picked fruit in school holidays. I also dont believe you'll get eastern europeans to do it as it doesn't make sense just to come here for a short season - it's already getting harder to get casual labour - so I suppose that people from other parts of the U.K. without much work will need to do it.

I read some Norwegian and Swedish newspapers today and May got half a page on about page 8 and the comment at last they've said what they want. I don't think anyone expects anything spectacular.

Question - if the UK becomes a tax haven does it benefit anyone outside the M25?

In reply to Mr Lopez:

Shouldn't you have financial records available if HMRC ever ask for evidence, yes you can generate any invoice, but your bank statement (from the bank) would prove money going in from external sources etc.. have you work purely in cash?

If any X number of years self employed you can't generate enough evidence to prove you've lived and worked here, then your record keeping must be truly atrocious.


southerners, who cares.

In reply to Mr Lopez:

I can provide anything for at least 7 years as there is a legal obligation for financial stuff if you are self employed.

In reply to wbo:


would agree to a degree, but EU farming has been massively distort by CAP and the massive supermarkets anyway for the past 20 years and a massive shake up is long over due.

With robots farming will change significantly anyway in the next 20years, nearly as much as when tractors took over from horses, it won't be so abrupt, but it will change.

In reply to summo:

It isn't so much the requirements which are a problem (well, I don't like them, but they can be seen as reasonable) - if you knew about them before moving somewhere, you'd apply, sort things out, and if you failed, well, so be it, you'd stay at home, or go somewhere else.

What's happening here is that people who settled, prehaps decades ago, with almost full citizenship rights, living as part of society just like everyone else, their nationality not a problem - people who have built lives and families here - have now been told they could just lose that, and there may be nothing they can do about it. Before you say it'll probably be OK, yes, it probably will, I think - but consider what that actually means.

In reply to neilh:

Its not as straight forward "as finding a way". Border regulations are tough, hard to circumvent, and modifying internal laws is a lot easier than lobbying some other government to make concessions for me.

We may soon be experiencing the joys of work visa requirements. Imagine if the process for 3 months working on a vineyard in Italy was only attainable via a once-in-a-lifetime working holiday visa, similar to what you get in Aus/NZ/Canada, relegating you to just that line of work, probably part-time, and unable to take something better if it materialises?

In reply to summo:

Done all that, luckily we're both pretty anal about keeping stuff. None of it gives date of arrival (when she wasn't even sure she'd be staying), or a complete list of dates in and out of the country.

In reply to Mr Lopez:


Damn, it took me half a page to say that!

In reply to summo:

You know how those that deny anyone is every affected by racism/sexism etc, always claim it's all in their head and imagined and not really a problem? You are doing exactly the same to all those who previously thought the UK was a welcoming, secure place to live and work.

In reply to wbo:


The Daily Mash nailed this one, I think:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/if-youre-being-a-tax-haven...

In reply to summo:


I don't know what sort of illusion you have in your head of what being self-employed is like, but i'll give you an exhaustive round up.

Day 0

- Ring ring...
- Yes?
- Hey Oscar, are you available next week?
- Sure am
- Ok, you start Monday 8am. 3 weeks work, here's the address.

3 weeks later (e-mail)

Dear Boss
Please find attached my invoice for the services provided between the dates A to B
Kind regards

30 days later (Opening online banking)

"Mr Boss has paid 1000 nigerian dollars into your account"

Interlude (Sometime during the first 3 weeks)

- Can i get 3 pairs of work gloves please?
- There you go. That's £27.90
- Here
- And your change and receipt.
- Thank you
- Thank you, have a good day.

And that's that. What's the evidence and "financial stuff" you take from that?

- Phone call. Not accepted as evidence
- E-mail. Not accepted as evidence
- Invoice. Not accepted as evidence
- Online banking statement. Not accepted as evidence unless stamped and blah, blah, blah
- Shop receipt. Not accepted as evidence

My record keeping goes as far as noting down the dates and sites worked and for which contractors. Filing the invoices. Noting payment dates. Keeping receipts that can be claimed as expenses. Am i missing something or what?

In reply to summo:

Said to you above: you should try putting yourself in others' shoes for a change (to which you argued back). And a few lines below:


I'm sure you'll say it is just a flippant comment or a joke. But in my experience, people don't often make jokes like that if there isn't some honesty in the statement.

In reply to skog:


I think if you have everything in between, the day the plane landed isn't that critical though. I would agree it's potentially harsh, but I don't think anyone has said that all EU citizens must apply for residency otherwise they'll be booted out post brexit. Granted you are covering your bases now, but some folk here are complaining as though EU workers are already being given deportation notices.

In reply to andyfallsoff:

are you getting all up tight about me commenting that only southerners are affected by M25 queues? Should I have added a smiley or three for you?

In reply to Bob Hughes:

I was too distracted by wondering why she was wearing a clown suit to consider what she actually said.

In reply to neilh:


wouldn't that depend on whether we continue to be a member of the Single Euro Payments area? agree that its unlikely to lead to restrictions on large payments but the cost of transferring money from a Brexited UK to an EU member state could increase.

In reply to summo:

It's fine, I am not too bothered. I just thought that it was well timed given the comment above...

In reply to summo:


when did you move to Sweden? (feel free not to answer if that's a personal detail you don't want to share)

reason i ask is that i moved to Spain in 2002 and there was virtually no form-filling. I just had to register with the local police office. o

In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Bay city rollers, I thought. Bye bye, baby

In reply to Bob Hughes:


2011, but Sweden runs off ID cards and a personal ID number from birth, there is no escape from having a traceable life or record.

In reply to Jon Stewart:


A combination of lower tax, deregulation and state aid (no EU = no state aid rules) would probably do it.

In reply to Mr Lopez:


The Inland Revenue?
Presumably they have tax records for a 'Mr Lopez', or haven't you being paying any?!

In reply to Bob Hughes:

Well it s no different to the cost between eu and the USA. And at the moment there is no difference.

In reply to Lusk:

Yes. Once a year i login into my account, i file my self-assesement and pay my tax, NIC class 2 and NIC class 4. But as mentioned above that only proves that taxable work was done in the UK, but not if the work spanned a full year or a single day.

All it contains is:

Turnover in the tax year- £x (Add up all the paid invoices)
Allowable Expenses - £y (Add up all the receipts)
Taxable income - x-y (Paid invoices minus receipts)
Your tax bill is £w
Your NI bill is £z
So long and thank you for the fish
Yours
Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs Inc

In reply to David Martin:

There were ways before hand and there will be ways after. The younger generation are always good at finding the loopholes. I would prefer it if they did not have to .......

In reply to skog:


I haven't read the whole thread, so sorry if I am suggesting something unhelpful. I friend of mine applying for residency had to supply similar information. Apparently when you enter and leave the UK your passport is scanned and the dates of travel are recorded, but you can request this information under the freedom of information act. It costs him £10 to request this. With this information, all he had to do was write the country that he visited and that was much easier. I can ask details if its helpful.

In reply to TonyB:

Thanks Tony.

We tried that, and were given one year of information (which we already had), and told that they didn't have the other information to give us (and that EU passports were often not recorded at all).

Our main hope is that -nobody- has the information, and so our genuine best attempt will not be refutable!

In reply to Bob Hughes:

I think there's a few aspects that the OP missed here. Sorry if these have already been mentioned, I haven't read the entire thread.

Firstly, we're due the Supreme Court ruling on the Article 50 case soon. The Government will probably lose that case, so this speech was designed to negate any negative fallout from that by insisting that it had already said that MPs would be given a vote, although it's not quite clear to me what that vote will be on.

Secondly, there was the suggestion that TM had somehow chosen this course of action. She hasn't had a choice at all. Fear of her own party and Murdoch force her to reject freedom of movement, and the EU itself won't allow any 'half out half in' measures. This is her only choice, and an act of desperation for her. I fear it will result in desperation for many.

Finally, she's attempted to shift the blame from herself onto any negative press for negotiations not going to plan.

Also:

Thank you I couldn't agree more, she truly is a nasty piece of work.

In reply to Bob Hughes:

A brilliant speech, and just what 51 % of the country wanted to hear.

In reply to Trevers:



Yes well spotted, I did miss this point. She was very clear that the final deal will be put to a vote in both houses. i.e. the vote would be a ratification of the deal, not a vote before triggering article 50. I imagine the government will argue that they've already had a vote on whether to trigger art. 50 just before Christmas.


Yes but i wouldn't hold that against her. The speech was the formal opening salvo of a very difficult negotiation so a bit of bravado is exactly what's needed.

In reply to neilh:


thanks

In reply to summo:


If EU arrivals post brexit aren't entitled to residency as sadly seems to be the direction of travel then it is impossible to see how that could be enforced without compelling those who arrived and settled earlier to register and prove that. Many will not be able to do so to the satisfaction of the immigration service (hardly the most reasonable and understanding of organisations at the best of times but imagine its approach when faced with around 3 million more cases generated at the stroke of a pen and likely with inadequate additional resources because tory). So now we have families, potentially with shared homes, kids in schools, thriving careers who have a choice: split up because one partner has been served with a deportation notice or wholesale up sticks and move the family somewhere civilised.
jk

In reply to Bob Hughes:

From a negotiating point of view it was " classic". basically saying we are prepared to walk away. Any business negotiations, pay negotiations etc etc, that is a fundemental principle.

It is why somebody like Tusk responded by saying something along the lines that the speech was welcome.Nodoubt key palyers in the EU team will have been circulated a copy of the speech beforehand. It helps focus everybodys mind.

Simon Jenkins has written a good summary of her position on this in the Guardian today .Well worth reading.

In reply to jkarran:

An assumption...nobody knows.. but if you arrived post brexit it would be crazy for you not to gather all your papers together to help your case.

Anyway I would be interested to learn the procedures for a UK citizen applying for citizenship in say France or Germany. I suspect it would just be as much a pain. Its a pain in just about every country in the world.

In reply to neilh:


At what point will we be permitted to stop trusting that it's just a good negotiating position and start being very concerned that it's something she might actually be stupid enough or selfish enough to implement?

In reply to skog:

Id go with your best guess, sounds ljke they wont be checking it if the information doesn't exist.

In reply to jkarran:


Can you link anything official that even suggests this is true and nothing other than scare mongering?

Civilised, given that a system with closed borders where people move to work, with families etc.. operates in countries like NZ, Oz, Canada... are you suggesting they are less civilised than countries in the EU?

ps. I'm not against migration, I'd happily keep trade and migration, and have the EU reform it's other components, but that bridge was crossed 12 plus months ago with Cameron's not so big negotiation.

In reply to neilh:



as I said earlier I applied for permanent residency in Sweden, forms, documents, proof of X and Y etc... nothing out of the ordinary when compared to what people are being asked for in the UK. And that's in Sweden a country will near porous open borders welcoming every man and his dog.

I think French bureaucracy is near legendary. But, then the word looks quite French/latin origin, so it's not surprising they excel at it.

In reply to neilh:


Indeed but it is an assumption based on reason. Perhaps I'm wrong, perhaps you can suggest a method by which we can treat two groups differently based on where they've been living (assuming settled EU nationals are even granted the right to remain, new ones won't be without a visa, that much is becoming crystal clear) unless you can differentiate them with strong evidence. Registration in some form or another is going to be essential, certainly for all resident non-UK passport holders unless they're simply going to be left in limbo, ok to exist unverified until they rub up against the state in some way which seems unsatisfactory in every conceivable way.


Yes I'm sure it is a bureaucratic nightmare but it's one that can be prepared for knowing in advance what is involved. Nobody was prepared for this, some will have lived the bulk of their lives here as Europeans, the colour of their passport unimportant until 2016, no need to be documenting their every journey, bill and lease... Now this, one can't travel back in time to start that archive. I can't. You're being told in no uncertain terms by others in similar circumstances they can't.
jk

In reply to jkarran:

You just create an new class of citizenship. One that also matches in with EU, so that it applies to Uk citizens in the EU. I suspect that it is one area of common ground between all UK and EU parties. Nobody will want accusations of " deportation" either of Uk citizens in Europe or vice versa.There is always a way where there is common ground.

In reply to jkarran:


I wonder whether EU citizens in the UK also have recourse to the European Court under right to family life. The UK is going to be under its jurisdiction for quite a few more years and it has already said it expects it will be making rulings on aspects of Brexit. It would be great if the European Court started laying down the law to the Tories if only to watch their heads explode with apoplectic rage.

In reply to marsbar:

My wife sent hers off at the end of October (along with her passport, which they require).

It's rather a big assumption that the information doesn't exist just because we were told they couldn't supply it, we'll see. They actually send her a letter confirming receipt, last week.

Here's another worry - it's supposed to take six months, but there is a massive backlog, apparently, so we don't know how long it could take.

If she needs her passport back in the meantime, she can request it - but the application will be aborted. We've spoken to the embassy, and they agree it's ridiculous, but can't offer any solutions beyond waiting and hoping we don't have any family emergencies in Sweden in the meantime.

In reply to neilh:


Maybe, but we have just been told that "no deal is better than a bad deal", so leaving with no such arrangement does appear to be one of the options.

In reply to summo:


No but it's becoming increasingly clear May has taken the referendum result as a mandate not just to leave the EU but to do what she failed to do in as home secretary (and I bet that stung her), to fully micro-manage immigration. Even if she manages that her target inherited from Cameron that she lacks the political courage or capital to disavow of <100k PA nett is risible unless she smashes the economy into the buffers (still apparently an option on the table).


I'm suggesting a country that imposes new requirements for ongoing residency on residents, some who will be settled for decades that they cannot possibly comply with because they never expected to have to and have not prepared for meaning they're compelled to leave, potentially destroying families, social networks and careers would not be a civilised country. We're not there yet but given the direction of travel it's going to be very difficult indeed to avoid that happening to at least to some, potentially many and I see little appetite at the head of government for ensuring these people's lives are not impacted, these people don't matter to May or the brexit toads she leads, they've had no say in what's happening, they hold no sway in elections and they will continue to be played as pawns at worst or at best, overlooked, left to the mercy of an overstretched uncaring bureaucracy.


You vocally supported this, the consequences were foreseeable then.
jk

In reply to skog:

I had read somewhere that they had addressed the passport issue, and that there are other alternatives.

In reply to skog:

She covered this in her speech. She said that it was some other EU countries were blocking a deal on citizenship. Nobody in the EU has refuted that comment.

In reply to neilh:


And how does one prove one is eligible for this new type of citizenship?
jk

In reply to neilh:

It's Merkel who's "blocking" her on this and Merkel's doing it for a very clear and well communicated reason: the stance of the EU and the remaining 27 (of which Merkel represents only 1) is that there will be no pre-negotiation and no hasty dealing on individual issues. The fate of the UK will be decided once and in total and the EU will not drip-feed boons beforehand.

In reply to john arran:

After it is too late.

The other thing the xenophobic Brexiter's haven't figured out is that you can't tell whether someone is an EU or UK citizen just by looking at them. Getting tough on 3 million EU citizens for migration is going to involve a massive increase in the number of immigration officers and white UK citizens getting hassled for documents by immigration as well as coloured ones. And if we make it unpleasant enough the EU migrants start going home in large numbers we're going to end up replacing them with migrants from muslim countries because that is the largest demographic that wants to come here after the EU.

In reply to skog:


Can she not apply for a second (Swedish?) passport? As I understand it those eligiable for one can apply for a second uk passport where theirs is going to be tied up for long periods in other countries' visa processes.
jk

In reply to Xharlie:
Bingo. The UK hasn't even invoked Article 50 yet!

Anything else the UK wants to sort out before negotiations start?

In reply to summo:


I haven't applied yet but have made enquiries & discussed the process with others & despite the reputation of French bureaucracy, it seems much easier than the UK equivalent & costs much, much less

In reply to neilh:

No.

In reply to jkarran:

I don't know; that might be possible, and perhaps we should have thought of it in advance (as we can't now travel to Sweden to arrange anything!)

It might be possible to do in London, I'll investigate. Thanks.

In reply to Xharlie:

No pre-negotiation suits both sides......it allows both " teams" ( if that is the right phrase) to get their houses in order.

The fate of the UK. You should read the qualifying comments by the French from yesterday...it is just as much a difficult one for the EU.They also have to get the right balance.

Bit of a pain - better not to have gone this way-

In reply to jkarran:


So you can't link any evidence that an official stance against EU nationals being deported, either now or proposed post brexit exists. Thanks, as I thought, just scaremongering.


No, not even once. I've never said I was for no employment migration, nor am I against a trade deal either. Care to link just one quote where I've done some close the borders rant?

In reply to Doug:


that's pretty good then, good to be correct for a positive reason. Costs under £200 to apply for citizenship in Sweden, which given it's a once in a lifetime event and there are a few things to check doesn't seem to represent bad value for money. Not, that I've applied, as I see no need.

In reply to skog:


there is a system in place, but not sure which consulates run it. My sambo got a special one year passport from them at some point. Bright pink in colour, I think it's so officials know it's not permanent and the valid to date requires more scrutiny than usual.

In reply to summo:

Thanks.

In reply to skog:

It was an ID card.

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Are you implying that Muslims are second class to Europeans. I hope not.I am sure your post should not read like that.......not from you

In reply to summo:


I'll stick up for you and say that I'm pretty sure you haven't done anything like that. You were very clear that you supported a kind of 'soft Brexit', for want of a better term, and that you'd prefer a reformed EU to a 'baby out with the bathwater' scenario.

What you have done, though, is insist that is what Brexit would actually mean, and that a 'hard Brexit' won't happen, even when I and others pointed out why it might, and how the agenda was being driven by the close-the-borders lot.

You could still be correct, but it isn't looking very likely.

In reply to summo:

Two simple questions:

How, post brexit do we prevent EU nationals settling without a visa/permit while allowing those resident pre-brexit to remain unless we compel those resident pre-brexit to register with evidence of eligibility for a visa/permit exemption?

What do we do with those like Mr Lopez who are unable to prove eligibility?


I meant you vocally supported leaving the EU. This debacle is the almost inevitable consequence of the hateful leave campaign.
jk

In reply to neilh:

What about the long-term flux of talent then?

I work for a company headquartered in France (and big presences in Germany & Spain). Already I have heard the sentiment from colleagues based abroad that one would have to be mad to want to move to a UK based position (the company actively encourages mobility) as it's become inward looking, isolationist and with zero prospects.

In reply to neilh:


I think no pre-negotiation suits the EU more than the UK as the 2-year clock puts more pressure on the UK than it does on the EU. I guess that both the EU and the UK have the same analysis since the UK tried to start "informal" talks pre-article 50 which the EU rejected.

In reply to neilh:




which comments?

In reply to neilh:


I'm implying that the UKIP xenophobes that voted for Brexit are going to get a shock when they discover the logical consequence is getting hassled for documents by immigration themselves and muslim immigrants taking the place of european ones.

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Yep, this is the other aspect of it that gets me.

May et al go on about how we'll be able to take more migrants from outside the EU now. But for the average zenophobe, I'd image EU migrants were largely unproblematic, whereas all those darkies and Muslamic foreign types were more the issue.

I can't see leaving the EU doing much to dampen the spirits of would-be refugees, or those in really desperate straights - all of whom tend to be of duskier complexion. It will surely be the northern or eastern Europeans, with alternative options, and unimpressed by what the pound now earns, who will be staying away.

It smacks of the govt telling porkies. They either don't intend to take in those highly skilled Indians, Africans or Arabs which they claim we will be open to. Or they do....in which case we're swapping UKIPs undesirable people with even less desirable people.

In reply to jkarran:

A NI number which will show exactly when a person registered or arrived in the UK etc... Unless you've made a very deliberate effort to live off radar, no bank account, no utility bills, no house, no phone contract, let your passport expire, no medical or dental treatment, no council tax, not registering to vote, not own a car, never take out insurance, never married or had kids etc.. etc.....

Even if you didn't foresee this happening, you can have various companies, banks etc send financial records to you for anything up to the past 7 years. They are legally obliged. As mention above freedom of information will force any public sector to release information on you, even if you don't have any copies of your own anymore.

You are fighting a problem that doesn't exist.


I'm still shocked that someone who has been self employed for many many years can't generate anything to prove he lives and breathes in the UK. Or perhaps they are just trying to stretch the point a little.


As opposed to the scare mongering remain campaign. Both campaigns were thin on facts and full of faults. The argument is really over which one was the least bad, or least worst.

In reply to summo:


Most of these are not accepted as proof of anything.


You're not listening to a long time contributor to this forum who is telling you the problem does exist and they for very mundane reasons cannot prove, to the satisfaction of the immigration service that they have been resident here continually for decades. But sure: black is white... la la la... not listening...



Except we're now implementing, as a result of the leave campaign's extremity the highest risk, the most unthinkable, the version disavowed by most mainstream leave campaigners version of brexit whatever the harm it may do because the people have spoken and they want rid of the foreigners (despite the fact that's apparently not what they want)!
jk

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

"if only to watch their heads explode with apoplectic rage." perhaps the judgements could be delivered by a yodelling crooner like the scenes in "May Attacks"?

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
and we'll have to manage to sift out non counterfeit electronic components from China ourselves!


(I speak from personal experience, they are selling so much shit to us, carefully marked as genuine)

In reply to pasbury:


I for one, am saying 'flux you' to the new UK and going overseas.

In reply to summo:


Apart from NI numbers are unreliable. Mix of temp ids, complete cock up means they cant be completely trusted.

In reply to summo:


I explained in detail to you above exactly what i generate through my self-employment, point which you ignored. So instead of making up stories and repeating points that have been refuted care to explain exactly what i should be able to generate through 8 years of self-employment?

The fact you are "shocked" just comes to show that you have your head stuck so far up your arse that you can't envisage anybody to be in a situation which doesn't match your very own exactly. Maybe through YOUR self-employment you generate a load of documents and paperwork you could use, but not everyone who is self-employed owns a freaking farm. It is your average run of the mill self-employed tradesmen who are in trouble here, not the big business owners with tons of assets to be managed, land, sub-contractors, suppliers, written contracts and purchasing orders.

I didn't post my situation for a laugh or made it up to make a point. It is a very real example of the situation many people is finding themselves in, as my situation is hardly unique. Yet you decide i must be lying, because it doesn't sound like what you want to hear, and so by repeating the same things over and over and over you somehow expect them to somehow become the truth.

Tell you what, let's try the effectiveness of your post-truth politics. Post 10 more times that i must have hard evidence in original paper copies of continous residency in the UK for 5 years, and in an hour i will open the drawer under my desk to see if they have magically appeared there. Ready, set, GO!

In reply to summo:

The point is the system isn't designed to be fair or reasonable. It's purpose is to reduce immigration and persuade people to leave so the numbers look better for whichever politician is running the Home Office. An unfair and capricious system with occasional threats of detention and deportation achieves the goal of reducing the numbers better than a fair and reasonable one.

If Brexit is going to look like a success to UKIP voters then reducing new immigration isn't going to cut it, they want to hear fewer foreign languages on public transport and see fewer Polish shops in the high street. That means getting people to leave. The Tories also understand that any solution that results in a substantial fraction of the 3 million EU citizens in the UK getting UK citizenship is going to cost them dearly at the next election and create a pro-EU majority among voters. So I don't think it is a coincidence that applying for UK citizenship is being made difficult and unpleasant.

In reply to EddInaBox:
I don't go with that at all, its not a formula that reflects real life. The german car industry alone would teeter on the verge of bankruptcy without UK customers, they need us, they need our money. We are the largest European market other than Germany, they would be silly to drive us away. I can think of absolutely nothing that we import from the EU that we couldn't import from elsewhere if we have to, we might pay a little more but it might be a price worth paying. As for foreign workers contributing financially to the UK, I am sorry but you are misguided. The overwhelming majority of the earnings of Europeans working in the UK is sent home to their country of origin and spent there, stimulating their economies not ours. I have a number of friends living in Spain, yes they do spend their money there, and the Spanish are glad of it. Finally, leaving the EU has nothing to do with NATO, we will continue to be prime players in NATO.

With May and Hammond in the mix it's no wonder the policy seems Clarksonesque

In reply to Bob Hughes:



She is prepared to walk away from everything if she does not like the deal.
( But we will at least listen to what they want to offer us, in return for what we can offer them)

In reply to Bob Hughes:

I don't know if anyone else has posted this analysis by a law professor: https://twitter.com/livuni_EULaw/status/822076447183486976

In reply to cragtaff:

In reply to cragtaff:


So you're saying that our biggest trump card is to threaten to bankrupt the German car industry? Personally I don't see that as such a big advantage that it overrides everything else. We export about 500,000 cars to the E.U. and we import about 800,000 German cars, if we got into a tit-for-tat tariff war we would suffer greatly too, who would want to invest in automotive production in this country any more?


If everything costs a little more then inflation goes up and quality of living goes down. When the universal measure of economic success is the level of growth and our annual growth rate is around 2% it doesn't take much to have a big impact, just like compound interest the effect is magnified over time, a few tenths of a percent over the next decade or two will have a huge effect.


I didn't comment on whether there was a net economic benefit to the U.K. from E.U. workers, or say businesses in Spain weren't glad of British ex-pat's money (I made a point about tax revenue and the costs associated with looking after elderly people) I am simply pointing out that it isn't another trump card. The majority of British pensioners living in Spain are clumped together in a few small regions, benefiting those local economies but not the vast majority of Spain, so if the Spanish equivalent of Nigel Farage wanted to find an easy target to use for political capital he (or she) could quite easily demonise the British. If my memory serves me right a couple of years ago British ex-pats took a case to the European Court of Justice, which ruled that Spanish inheritance tax laws discriminated against them because Spanish citizens were taxed less. When they no longer have recourse to the ECJ, perhaps the Spanish government will start to look at all that money again.

In reply to EddInaBox:



Don't worry, Thatcher made sure that we had sustainable car industry of our own.

Everyone (except Jezza) loves a Morgan!

In reply to damhan-allaidh:


Yeah, I thought the speech was a lot of sabre-rattling guff too, with no policy detail, just political rhetoric. But what would he know? Bloody experts, innit?

In reply to Hugh J:

Did you see circulating around yesterday some apparent interviews with That Man supporters? They cited his truthfulness, willingness to admit mistakes, sensitivity etc. as reasons why they supported him. If true, one begins to see why experts will never make a dent. Tom Devine, a historian at Edinburgh, referred to postmodernism as a deadly virus that was killing society in a lecture I attended years ago. I think he was spot on.

In reply to cragtaff:
"German business lobbyists will not stop tariffs against Britain

Unfortunately for Brexiteers, BMW cannot tell Angela Merkel what to do"

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21708720-unfortunately-brexiteers-bmw-...

In reply to damhan-allaidh:

He was a guy I think I heard in a " remain/brexit" debate at Manchester Uni( pre the referendum) . I hate to say it he was torn to shreds by a well informed UKIP representative( a paradox if ever there was one). From what I recall in a show of hands at the end his "legal" arguments were so destroyed that everybody supported the " brexit" panel.

Perversley it was quite funny. I think alot of people are cynical of legal professors.......

In reply to elsewhere:

So the German election in the autumn is part of the picture. From all I see Merkel will win again.

I reckon there is alot in common between May and Merkel( never mind the M's). Both have husband's who keep out the limelight. Both like to be well briefed.

In reply to cragtaff:


We're not going to stop buying German cars if tariffs of perhaps 10% are imposed, they will bump up forecourt prices (who actually cares what new cars cost, they're basically unaffordable in cash terms anyway so most leave the showroom on leases which might go up by £15-30/month) and eat into profits if the OEM price is forced down to stimulate sales but we won't stop buying them. The price difference between one car and the next in a similar class is already often well over 10%, we buy these things on emotion, as status symbols as much as we buy them purely rationally on value, if we were purely rational VAG wouldn't need to maintain so many brands all producing essentially the same thing under different badges. American cars will still be shite, Korean cars will still be cheap and practical, Japanese cars will still be tiny and cheap or pricey and good for a few round trips to the moon. Gods forbid we all end up driving around in Rangerovers or Jukes.


I challenge you to provide evidence not anecdote.
jk

In reply to Hugh J:



I think you'll find the Dagenham Dustbins, the Morris Marina and athe Austin Allegros somewhat predate Thatcher. They're symtomatic of the reasons we don't have a home grown car industry.

In reply to Bob Hughes:

Which speech? This one https://twitter.com/libdemlife/status/821645121456394241
Full glory http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-b...

In reply to jkarran:

I think you will find Jag salespeople maybe rubbing their hands with glee....and BMW etc are faced with 2 whammies..currency ( now a live issue) and potentially tariffs.

It is true of course that BMW and Mercedes represent in most peoples views a quality brand car, but Jaguar are certainly capable of knocking that position.Tata are no mugs.

And the resale value on Jags ( quite poor) is not an issue for those on pcp's.

I too will be interested to see the posters evidence, it stikes me as a load of rubbish.

In reply to neilh:


Currency is going to effect all car prices, even those assembled here have world-wide supply chains and the labour cost will begin to rise as inflation takes hold (or there'll be pain and upheaval). We're constantly being told our economy is vital to Europe so it seems likely, taking that at face value, the Euro will tend to trend with Sterling for a while at least, the same is not true to the same extent of the Yen, Won or Dollar.


I don't doubt it.


Except the depreciation is priced into the lease since the dealer/financier needs to sell it on in the used market at 3 years.
jk

In reply to jkarran:

All depends on uk content. And Jag are already improving their Uk supply chain... new factory for aluminum parts being built in Telford.

The depreciation is already priced in at the moment,so its not really a future issue.

Yaun not Won.Rupee is more relevant.

Its an opportunity and we should not be disparaging of it... espcially for Speke... and Uk steel industry...and the Birmingham area.

In reply to neilh:
Can't find any record of him having spoken at Manchester-Have you go the details? Rough date time? I'd like to follow up and see if I can find some reviews of the talk. It's always useful to see other people's opinions, who else was involved, topics etc. Thanks!

In reply to Bob Hughes: The above mentioned steel industry is an interesting case. With the UK out of the way the EU can set up tariffs to stop Chinese dumping - then, the UK steel industry becomes even less competitive than it is now unless all other imports are tariffed or there's direct support of the UK. Whichever, UK manufacturing will pay more.

A tariff war with the EU is very much to be avoided. And while BMW and Merc may well be quaking in their boots there is only a finite number of Jags, Minis and Qashqai's from Sunderland the UK can afford to buy.

Plus, the price of fish and chips will go through the roof as almost no cod sold is caught in home waters.

In reply to neilh:


Sure they're adding value but still, that'll likely be Chinese or Russian aluminium they're processing.


Yuan in Korea?


You never struck me as much of an advocate of protectionism. It may create some localised opportunities, offer some declining industries a brief reprieve but we can't hide from an ever more connected world for long without doing ourselves irreparable harm overall.

Anyway... I thought listening to the PM this week brexit had become about opening up to free trade, a more global outlook, the complete opposite of what many of those facing precarious futures in dying industries actually wanted. These deals we're being promised will be a two way street and many of them with the biggest economies will come with painful conditions/restrictions imposed for many years to come. Overall... sure the exchequer will benefit long term, indeed many individuals will to but there is a big change coming and a lot of people are going to be hurt by it.
jk

In reply to jkarran:

So that is why they are looking at reopening the aluminum smelter in Anglesey and also I think the Highlands.

Protectionism is irrelevant ( and I have not heard anybody advocate it in the UK)...its the devaluation that has had an impact... and may continue to do so. And I do not think you can consider the auto industry ( inlcuding its supply chain) in the UK a declining one, far fom it.

We do not know if a lot of people are going to be hurt, speculation.

In reply to wbo:

Try telling that to Tata who are now looking at reinvesting in the plants ( £100m plus).

Bit of a sweeping statement on uk manufacturing, try suggesting that to EEF.

In reply to neilh:


Importing energy and bauxite. I'm not trying to be relentlessly negative, indeed it may not be a bad decision economically (or in some narrow technical respects) to re-open these facilities but I can't help feeling we'll end up pouring state aid into them in a decade or two as they once again fail to compete for sound labour/transport/energy/regulatory cost reasons on global stage.


You're right, it may but we still import a lot of stock material, parts, energy, knowledge and software, the effect seems to me unlikely to be dramatic and lasting. That devaluation may also hint at increeasing borrowing costs in the future and reduced inward investment stifling growth. You may be right, I'm an engineer not an economist.


I was referring to steel


Rapid change always has hurt people and communities in the past. I don't feel like I'm on especially shaky ground speculating that it may again.
jk

In reply to jkarran:

I agree that steel or metal processing has a questionable future. But it has always been so even years ago, with or without state aid. Reality is that it is a tiny portion of the manufacturing sector. I doubt we will see a new steel mill like Port Talbot built on these shores ever again.But there is no reason why this plant cannot be modernised etc etc. 2 years ago that site bought for £36 million the largest AC motor ever built in Europe for an upgrade.

Reality is that the profitablity of these plants go up and down over the years, and some would argue that the French and Germans are far better at state protecting theirs.

Change is always happening, the more interesting one is over in the States.

In reply to Sir Chasm:

Hahaha! I love it when that happens. Thanks for the link.

In reply to neilh:



doesn't surprise me at all that a law professor was torn to shreds by a UK politician. Law professors aren't known for being able to appeal to the common man. I'm not a particular fan of Dougan - he comes over a bit supercilious - and we don't really need his snide-y views that May's speech didn't contain anything new. That wasn't really the point - it was good to have the negotiating objectives stated all in one place.

However, he does know his law. He reported to a parliamentary select committee back in June and was spot on about the requirement for a parliamentary vote. Well, so far. Let's see what happens on Tuesday...

In reply to summo:

In case you need this again, the embassy say it isn't possible to have a second full Swedish passport and they've stopped doing the pink 1-year passport, but it is possible to get a document for one trip, if it's deemed to be an emergency.

In reply to Thread:

Which will be the hardest parts of the government's plan? I vote for, in descending order of difficulty

1. Getting the divorce settlement and trade agreement simultaneously done within two years. More than very difficult, I actually think this is impossible - for me 0% probability

2. Membership of the customs union, control over immigration and a common travel area with northern Ireland. I'm stumped on how you combine these three. Not quite impossible, but very hard. 15% probability (i think they'll end up with a common travel area with northern Ireland but compromise on customs union / immigration control.

3. Membership of the customs union, opt-out of the Common External Tariff and a free trade agreement. Also seems intractable. 25% probability.

4. Control over immigration. I think they'll get this. 75% probability

5. Rights for EU nationals in the UK and vice versa. Both sides want this and it should be easy to do. 90% probability. The devil will be in the implementation.

6. Co-operation on security and science. No-brainer. 95% probability.

In reply to Bob Hughes:

It's complicated.

"Britain must relax immigration rules for Australians if it wants a free trade deal, says high commissioner to UK"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-brexit-theres...

In reply to elsewhere:



Yes, India takes the same approach.

The reason i think it is doable in the case of Brexit is that we are starting from full freedom of movement so any change can be sold as controlling immigration which in itself is a vague objective.

In reply to Bob Hughes:


But we aren't - we're starting from full EEA freedom of movement, and various, more controlled, deals with countries elsewhere.

Restricting the EEA movement while relaxing movement from other countries could end up as less control rather than more.

Not that it isn't doable, though, if it's prioritised above getting the best possible trade deals - it's just far from guaranteed.

In reply to skog:


Its already difficult to get a permit to stay in the UK if you are not an EU national and the government (under May at the Home Office) has been steadily making it even more difficult. I don't imagine the government will change any of that before we exit the EU. So they can easily get significantly more control over EU immigration and keep the rest at the same level, or even offer slight relaxation on non-EU immigration and overall they'll have more control over immigration than they do today.