This topic has been archived, and won't accept reply postings.
How do UKCers think things will proceed over the next four years if Trump carries on the way he is going at the moment? Surely something will give. The question is what and when?
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I'm sure whatever happens will either look like an accident or the work of a deranged loner.
I'm sure whatever happens will either look like an accident or the work of a deranged loner.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
Assassinated within two years. Probably by his own party.
If there is an attempt I just hope we get to hear the Secret Service shout "Donald, DUCK!"
Assassinated within two years. Probably by his own party.
If there is an attempt I just hope we get to hear the Secret Service shout "Donald, DUCK!"
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In reply to FesteringSore:
Impeachment, hopefully.
But then we'll have to put up with Pence, less stupid than Trump and more evil.
Plus the basket of deplorables he's appointed would presumably remain.
It doesn't look good - I hope the protests continue and that he doesn't get heavy handed in responding to them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_(Crosby,_Stills,_Nash_%26_Young_song)#/m...
Impeachment, hopefully.
But then we'll have to put up with Pence, less stupid than Trump and more evil.
Plus the basket of deplorables he's appointed would presumably remain.
It doesn't look good - I hope the protests continue and that he doesn't get heavy handed in responding to them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_(Crosby,_Stills,_Nash_%26_Young_song)#/m...
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In reply to FesteringSore:
If he carries on at the pace he's set in the direction he's heading for four years (and I doubt, with little certainty that he can) then I can't see how we don't end his term with America in some sort of 'state of emergency', potentially looking a lot like Turkey domestically with the rest of the world moving to exploit America's implosion and likely coming into regional conflicts that have long been held in check by American power, economic, diplomatic and military. What happens next I suspect has a lot to do with where American's loyalties really lie, to the office and the constitution or the president as a man. As an outsider I don't know for sure which way that will go but the idea that people may have to be seriously asking themselves the question in the months and years to come is deeply troubling for all of us, an unstable America could easily set the world ablaze again yet the cost of maintaining stability could prove appalling.
jk
If he carries on at the pace he's set in the direction he's heading for four years (and I doubt, with little certainty that he can) then I can't see how we don't end his term with America in some sort of 'state of emergency', potentially looking a lot like Turkey domestically with the rest of the world moving to exploit America's implosion and likely coming into regional conflicts that have long been held in check by American power, economic, diplomatic and military. What happens next I suspect has a lot to do with where American's loyalties really lie, to the office and the constitution or the president as a man. As an outsider I don't know for sure which way that will go but the idea that people may have to be seriously asking themselves the question in the months and years to come is deeply troubling for all of us, an unstable America could easily set the world ablaze again yet the cost of maintaining stability could prove appalling.
jk
Post edited at 11:25
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In reply to FesteringSore:
We will see an increase in extremism, which will be used to justify more extreme action by governments
We will see an increase in extremism, which will be used to justify more extreme action by governments
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In reply to Cú Chullain:
Judging by some of the headlines I've seen it would seem that the Republicans are not happy with him
> Probably by his own party.
Judging by some of the headlines I've seen it would seem that the Republicans are not happy with him
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I predict the incessant whining of the left will drown out all sounds below the level of Motorhead's PA, and the internet will collapse under the pressure of pointless petitions.
And yes, I'm being sarcastic for it's own sake.
I predict the incessant whining of the left will drown out all sounds below the level of Motorhead's PA, and the internet will collapse under the pressure of pointless petitions.
And yes, I'm being sarcastic for it's own sake.
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In reply to pasbury:
Stop dreaming people. Not only he's not going to be impeached, but he's gonna be there for 8 years (or more, given that he clearly has no respect for the legal system)
> Impeachment, hopefully.
Stop dreaming people. Not only he's not going to be impeached, but he's gonna be there for 8 years (or more, given that he clearly has no respect for the legal system)
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In reply to Big Ger:
Sadly, Motorhead's PA was turned off on the 28th December 2015.
> I predict the incessant whining of the left will drown out all sounds below the level of Motorhead's PA,
Sadly, Motorhead's PA was turned off on the 28th December 2015.
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In reply to RomTheBear:
I think you are probably wrong, and judging by the rate events are unfolding, that it will soon turn into some kind of civil war ... and that sadly, quite soon, some people will die. Once that happens, the whole thing will enter a new groove of seriousness.
> Stop dreaming people. Not only he's not going to be impeached, but he's gonna be there for 8 years (or more, given that he clearly has no respect for the legal system)
I think you are probably wrong, and judging by the rate events are unfolding, that it will soon turn into some kind of civil war ... and that sadly, quite soon, some people will die. Once that happens, the whole thing will enter a new groove of seriousness.
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In reply to RomTheBear:
Well he's already filed his eligibility for the 2020 election, it means he can start to raise funds for his campaign right now.
> Stop dreaming people. Not only he's not going to be impeached, but he's gonna be there for 8 years (or more, given that he clearly has no respect for the legal system)
Well he's already filed his eligibility for the 2020 election, it means he can start to raise funds for his campaign right now.
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
That, or terrorists will gain enough support around the world to be able to mount an attack on the US that would dwarf 9/11, e.g. a nuclear, chemical or biological one.
> I think you are probably wrong, and judging by the rate events are unfolding, that it will soon turn into some kind of civil war ... and that sadly, quite soon, some people will die. Once that happens, the whole thing will enter a new groove of seriousness.
That, or terrorists will gain enough support around the world to be able to mount an attack on the US that would dwarf 9/11, e.g. a nuclear, chemical or biological one.
In reply to Neil Williams:
The lack of coherence in the West coupled with the shifting balance of power will result in a nuclear exchange somewhere. This will be accelerated by US isolationism meaning more states will seek nuclear protection of their own.
Please shoot this down in flames and I can stop being concerned
The lack of coherence in the West coupled with the shifting balance of power will result in a nuclear exchange somewhere. This will be accelerated by US isolationism meaning more states will seek nuclear protection of their own.
Please shoot this down in flames and I can stop being concerned
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In reply to wercat:
I do share your concern, and I have a feeling it might well be the US and China as a result of an escalating tension over Taiwan. It won't be Russia, as Putin seems to respect him as a fellow nutter, and whether India and Pakistan would have a go at each other or not has precious little to do with the US.
The bad thing about that is that Trump is in my view right about Taiwan, and China should back off - the thing is, they have nukes...
I do share your concern, and I have a feeling it might well be the US and China as a result of an escalating tension over Taiwan. It won't be Russia, as Putin seems to respect him as a fellow nutter, and whether India and Pakistan would have a go at each other or not has precious little to do with the US.
The bad thing about that is that Trump is in my view right about Taiwan, and China should back off - the thing is, they have nukes...
Post edited at 14:27
In reply to Neil Williams:
It wouldn't take much for Trump and Kim Jong-un to upset each other either
It wouldn't take much for Trump and Kim Jong-un to upset each other either
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I think many brexit voters will come to regret their decision. Others will be delighted.
> How do UKCers think things will proceed over the next four years if Trump carries on the way he is going at the moment? Surely something will give. The question is what and when?
I think many brexit voters will come to regret their decision. Others will be delighted.
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
I disagree. There is opposition, but for a start, they are out of touch and have no teeth.
There won't be any civil war, normal everyday decent people are not going to get AR-15 and shoot at the police, they'll just whine on Facebook and watch Netflix.
Secondly, I suspect the US economy will do quite well in the short term, as Trump will splurge on public spending and screw other countries to the benefits of the US. Of course long term it will be a disaster.
Finally, people in position of influence will eventually side with him, simply because they fear the consequences of opposing him.
> I think you are probably wrong, and judging by the rate events are unfolding, that it will soon turn into some kind of civil war ... and that sadly, quite soon, some people will die. Once that happens, the whole thing will enter a new groove of seriousness.
I disagree. There is opposition, but for a start, they are out of touch and have no teeth.
There won't be any civil war, normal everyday decent people are not going to get AR-15 and shoot at the police, they'll just whine on Facebook and watch Netflix.
Secondly, I suspect the US economy will do quite well in the short term, as Trump will splurge on public spending and screw other countries to the benefits of the US. Of course long term it will be a disaster.
Finally, people in position of influence will eventually side with him, simply because they fear the consequences of opposing him.
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In reply to MG:
People don't generally regret their decisions. They generally blame someone else for the consequences, some other country or foreigners.
> I think many brexit voters will come to regret their decision. Others will be delighted.
People don't generally regret their decisions. They generally blame someone else for the consequences, some other country or foreigners.
Post edited at 00:00
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I have a big birthday coming up in July, and it is likely to be the last time #1 son comes along on the family holiday, so I decided a week in New York would fit the bill.
I am beginning to think maybe I should have a contingency plan, as I have a nagging feeling that the FCO travel advice will be do not travel to the US come August.
I've booked flights and hotel, and have my ESTA visa waivers - wouldn't e surprised if that changes and I have to apply for full visas. Or, worse case scenario: his orangeness will have taken offence at something and brought the shutters down to everyone, or the militias will be exercising their right to bear arms and oppose an unjust government.
I have a big birthday coming up in July, and it is likely to be the last time #1 son comes along on the family holiday, so I decided a week in New York would fit the bill.
I am beginning to think maybe I should have a contingency plan, as I have a nagging feeling that the FCO travel advice will be do not travel to the US come August.
I've booked flights and hotel, and have my ESTA visa waivers - wouldn't e surprised if that changes and I have to apply for full visas. Or, worse case scenario: his orangeness will have taken offence at something and brought the shutters down to everyone, or the militias will be exercising their right to bear arms and oppose an unjust government.
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In reply to radar:
I don't know actually: I have a working VISA for the US (and a UK passport) and we've been told there should be no impact and to continue with our travel plans over the next two years. Other colleagues are from India / Turkey / EU and the same message has been given.
P.S. Politics are no longer a suitable topic of conversation in the office. However my main counterpart in the US is a very well educated Muslim from Jordan who has lived in the States for years, and he is not concerned. He didn't vote either, interestingly.
I don't know actually: I have a working VISA for the US (and a UK passport) and we've been told there should be no impact and to continue with our travel plans over the next two years. Other colleagues are from India / Turkey / EU and the same message has been given.
P.S. Politics are no longer a suitable topic of conversation in the office. However my main counterpart in the US is a very well educated Muslim from Jordan who has lived in the States for years, and he is not concerned. He didn't vote either, interestingly.
Post edited at 17:08
In reply to FesteringSore:
He could become the first president in a very long time not to get his party's nomination to run for a second term of office.
> Judging by some of the headlines I've seen it would seem that the Republicans are not happy with him
He could become the first president in a very long time not to get his party's nomination to run for a second term of office.
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In reply to Hat Dude:
Mmm.. theres actually a lot in common there. Third generation leader of the familiy firm, nice haircut, inappropriate behaviour to your own family (wanting to date your daughter and mortar bombing your uncle not quite in the same league, I grant you that..) not known for laughing off criticism, pretty big wall on your southern border, fondness for self aggrandising architecture. Kim Jong Un probably sees a kindred spirit and might tone down the act a bit.
> It wouldn't take much for Trump and Kim Jong-un to upset each other either
Mmm.. theres actually a lot in common there. Third generation leader of the familiy firm, nice haircut, inappropriate behaviour to your own family (wanting to date your daughter and mortar bombing your uncle not quite in the same league, I grant you that..) not known for laughing off criticism, pretty big wall on your southern border, fondness for self aggrandising architecture. Kim Jong Un probably sees a kindred spirit and might tone down the act a bit.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I' m thinking in terms of a nervous breakdown leading to retirement on health grounds, sooner rather than later; but that may be wishful thinking.
I' m thinking in terms of a nervous breakdown leading to retirement on health grounds, sooner rather than later; but that may be wishful thinking.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
Well, the disaster moves ever nearer. The Commons vote is 498:114.
PS. A shameful day for Labour.
Well, the disaster moves ever nearer. The Commons vote is 498:114.
PS. A shameful day for Labour.
Post edited at 19:37
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
It's hard not to feel gloomy. I'm just really thankful I'm from a family which has done well enough that I'll personally be fairly okay financially, even if I do end up working minimum wage jobs, but that's not a huge consolation in the scheme of things, given the economic outlook presented by the FT.
https://www.ft.com/content/a0c3fce4-d0e2-11e6-b06b-680c49b4b4c0
If the fact the national debt has actually increased under the Conservatives is added to that, I feel like there's been cheerier things to think about...
It's hard not to feel gloomy. I'm just really thankful I'm from a family which has done well enough that I'll personally be fairly okay financially, even if I do end up working minimum wage jobs, but that's not a huge consolation in the scheme of things, given the economic outlook presented by the FT.
https://www.ft.com/content/a0c3fce4-d0e2-11e6-b06b-680c49b4b4c0
If the fact the national debt has actually increased under the Conservatives is added to that, I feel like there's been cheerier things to think about...
Post edited at 19:57
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Growth will slow markedly in 2017, household incomes will be squeezed by higher inflation and businesses will hold back on investment decisions because of uncertainty about Brexit, according to the majority of economists in an annual Financial Times survey.
Sample the FT’s top stories for a week
You select the topic, we deliver the news.
The UK is thought to have been one of the fastest-growing advanced economies in 2016. Growth remained resilient in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave the EU.
But most of the 122 economists who responded now expected growth to slow — from about 2.1 per cent in 2016 to no more than 1.5 per cent in 2017.
The depreciation of sterling is set to lead to higher inflation, while wages are expected to rise more slowly. Many economists think unemployment will rise as businesses try to restrain costs in the face of uncertainty about the UK’s future outside the EU, which is also expected to depress business investment.
Most economists predict these pressures will hold back consumer spending, the engine of economic growth in the UK in recent years.
“We think the uncertain reality will hit home [in 2017], with a fall in investment and slowdown in consumption as inflation erodes real wages,” said Liz Martins, UK economist at HSBC.
“Once inflation rises and real wage growth slows considerably, the key driver of growth in the UK economy will be highly constrained,” said Noble Francis, economics director of the Construction Products Association.
Of the economists who responded, 45 per cent said they expected a marked slowdown in growth in 2017 to somewhere between 1.1 and 1.5 per cent. A further 19 per cent expected a more significant slowdown. Only 3 per cent thought growth would be faster in 2017 than in 2016 and 7 per cent thought growth would be the same or only fractionally slower.
Many of those who said they expected growth to be the same or higher than in 2016 were also in the small minority of economists who thought Brexit would have positive long-term effects for the UK economy. But not all take a positive view of both the short and longer-term outlook.
“UK growth will continue to surprise on the upside in 2017,” said Marian Bell, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. “The economy is still benefiting from pre-referendum monetary stimulus, boosted by precautionary post-referendum policy loosening and the concomitant fall in sterling, while the impact of Brexit itself has not yet been seen.”
Although there are a number of factors likely to weigh on growth this year, there are also some that will provide a greater stimulus than in 2016. In particular, noted Linda Yueh, adjunct professor of economics at the London Business School, “a slower pace of fiscal austerity and a weaker pound”.
The weaker currency should provide a boost to exporters. But David Miles, another former member of the MPC and professor of economics at Imperial College London, said that “the negative impact of higher prices on disposable incomes is likely to be somewhat stronger than the positive impact of a lower value of sterling” on export demand.
Costas Milas, professor of finance at the University of Liverpool, also pointed out that the considerable volatility in the exchange rate since the Brexit vote created problems for exporters: “This is a challenge for exporters because it creates uncertainty for their earnings and future investments even if firms manage to partly hedge against exchange rate risk.”
Many economists are finding it particularly difficult to forecast growth this year. “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history,” said Ethan Ilzetzki, a lecturer at the London School of Economics.
“The uncertainty range in forecasts of economic growth is so large that it is perfectly possible and not too unlikely that UK growth actually speeds up [in 2017],” said Ricardo Reis, professor of economics at the LSE, whose central estimate for economic growth was for a “modest slowdown”.
Some of these uncertainties are global. “There is particular uncertainty about the outlook for China, continental Europe and the USA,” said Tim Besley, another former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and professor of economics at the LSE.
Risks in mainland Europe include political uncertainty on the forthcoming French and German elections, continued high levels of migration and instability in the Italian banking sector.
Domestic risks focus on uncertainty about how the Brexit negotiations will progress. But there is also risk in the potential for further strike action and the difficulty of predicting how UK labour productivity, which has consistently disappointed forecasters in recent years, will develop.
“There is more downside risk . . . than upward risk,” concluded Wouter Den Haan, a professor of economics at the LSE. “If the current growth rate is repeated in 2017 then that would be quite nice.”
Full responses
Anonymous
I expect growth at around 1 per cent in 2017. Business investment is likely to slow, reflecting the Brexit induced uncertainty. Household consumption growth will weaken reflecting declining real disposable income growth and weaker credit growth. Fiscal policy will provide only a modest impulse. Offsetting that, global growth now looks strong.
Anonymous
To around 1 per cent for the year as a whole, with the bulk of the slowdown coming in the second half. This assumes Article 50 is triggered by end-March 2017 and that it becomes apparent by April-May 2017 that a pretty hard Brexit is likely. At that point FDI [foreign direct investment] into the UK and capital expenditure in the UK will take a hit, and immigration into the UK from the EU27 will fall.
Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist, IHS Global Insight
Despite the current resilience, 2017 is likely to be an increasingly difficult year for the UK economy. Indeed, we expect GDP growth to slow markedly to 1.3 per cent in 2017 (from an estimated 2.1 per cent in 2016) — as consumer fundamentals weaken markedly and uncertainty is heightened by the government triggering Article 50 to formally start the UK’s exit from the EU.
Consumers are highly likely to face markedly diminishing purchasing power as 2017 progresses as inflation rises appreciably and earnings growth is limited by companies striving to limit their costs. In addition, unemployment seems likely to rise over the coming months, despite the recent resilience of the labour market.
Businesses will probably be cautious over investment and employment, and their uncertainty is seen heightened when the government triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and negotiations over the UK’s future relationship with the EU come to the forefront, particularly regarding immigration, trade and access to the single market. Additionally, a substantially weakened pound is increasing companies’ costs by lifting prices for imported oil, commodities and components.
On the positive side, a markedly weaker pound should support UK exports, although we suspect lacklustre growth in the eurozone will limit the upside. Eurozone growth is seen being pressurised in 2017 by heightened political uncertainty across the region.
Growth will slow markedly in 2017, household incomes will be squeezed by higher inflation and businesses will hold back on investment decisions because of uncertainty about Brexit, according to the majority of economists in an annual Financial Times survey.
Sample the FT’s top stories for a week
You select the topic, we deliver the news.
The UK is thought to have been one of the fastest-growing advanced economies in 2016. Growth remained resilient in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave the EU.
But most of the 122 economists who responded now expected growth to slow — from about 2.1 per cent in 2016 to no more than 1.5 per cent in 2017.
The depreciation of sterling is set to lead to higher inflation, while wages are expected to rise more slowly. Many economists think unemployment will rise as businesses try to restrain costs in the face of uncertainty about the UK’s future outside the EU, which is also expected to depress business investment.
Most economists predict these pressures will hold back consumer spending, the engine of economic growth in the UK in recent years.
“We think the uncertain reality will hit home [in 2017], with a fall in investment and slowdown in consumption as inflation erodes real wages,” said Liz Martins, UK economist at HSBC.
“Once inflation rises and real wage growth slows considerably, the key driver of growth in the UK economy will be highly constrained,” said Noble Francis, economics director of the Construction Products Association.
Of the economists who responded, 45 per cent said they expected a marked slowdown in growth in 2017 to somewhere between 1.1 and 1.5 per cent. A further 19 per cent expected a more significant slowdown. Only 3 per cent thought growth would be faster in 2017 than in 2016 and 7 per cent thought growth would be the same or only fractionally slower.
Many of those who said they expected growth to be the same or higher than in 2016 were also in the small minority of economists who thought Brexit would have positive long-term effects for the UK economy. But not all take a positive view of both the short and longer-term outlook.
“UK growth will continue to surprise on the upside in 2017,” said Marian Bell, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. “The economy is still benefiting from pre-referendum monetary stimulus, boosted by precautionary post-referendum policy loosening and the concomitant fall in sterling, while the impact of Brexit itself has not yet been seen.”
Although there are a number of factors likely to weigh on growth this year, there are also some that will provide a greater stimulus than in 2016. In particular, noted Linda Yueh, adjunct professor of economics at the London Business School, “a slower pace of fiscal austerity and a weaker pound”.
The weaker currency should provide a boost to exporters. But David Miles, another former member of the MPC and professor of economics at Imperial College London, said that “the negative impact of higher prices on disposable incomes is likely to be somewhat stronger than the positive impact of a lower value of sterling” on export demand.
Costas Milas, professor of finance at the University of Liverpool, also pointed out that the considerable volatility in the exchange rate since the Brexit vote created problems for exporters: “This is a challenge for exporters because it creates uncertainty for their earnings and future investments even if firms manage to partly hedge against exchange rate risk.”
Many economists are finding it particularly difficult to forecast growth this year. “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history,” said Ethan Ilzetzki, a lecturer at the London School of Economics.
“The uncertainty range in forecasts of economic growth is so large that it is perfectly possible and not too unlikely that UK growth actually speeds up [in 2017],” said Ricardo Reis, professor of economics at the LSE, whose central estimate for economic growth was for a “modest slowdown”.
Some of these uncertainties are global. “There is particular uncertainty about the outlook for China, continental Europe and the USA,” said Tim Besley, another former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and professor of economics at the LSE.
Risks in mainland Europe include political uncertainty on the forthcoming French and German elections, continued high levels of migration and instability in the Italian banking sector.
Domestic risks focus on uncertainty about how the Brexit negotiations will progress. But there is also risk in the potential for further strike action and the difficulty of predicting how UK labour productivity, which has consistently disappointed forecasters in recent years, will develop.
“There is more downside risk . . . than upward risk,” concluded Wouter Den Haan, a professor of economics at the LSE. “If the current growth rate is repeated in 2017 then that would be quite nice.”
Full responses
Anonymous
I expect growth at around 1 per cent in 2017. Business investment is likely to slow, reflecting the Brexit induced uncertainty. Household consumption growth will weaken reflecting declining real disposable income growth and weaker credit growth. Fiscal policy will provide only a modest impulse. Offsetting that, global growth now looks strong.
Anonymous
To around 1 per cent for the year as a whole, with the bulk of the slowdown coming in the second half. This assumes Article 50 is triggered by end-March 2017 and that it becomes apparent by April-May 2017 that a pretty hard Brexit is likely. At that point FDI [foreign direct investment] into the UK and capital expenditure in the UK will take a hit, and immigration into the UK from the EU27 will fall.
Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist, IHS Global Insight
Despite the current resilience, 2017 is likely to be an increasingly difficult year for the UK economy. Indeed, we expect GDP growth to slow markedly to 1.3 per cent in 2017 (from an estimated 2.1 per cent in 2016) — as consumer fundamentals weaken markedly and uncertainty is heightened by the government triggering Article 50 to formally start the UK’s exit from the EU.
Consumers are highly likely to face markedly diminishing purchasing power as 2017 progresses as inflation rises appreciably and earnings growth is limited by companies striving to limit their costs. In addition, unemployment seems likely to rise over the coming months, despite the recent resilience of the labour market.
Businesses will probably be cautious over investment and employment, and their uncertainty is seen heightened when the government triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and negotiations over the UK’s future relationship with the EU come to the forefront, particularly regarding immigration, trade and access to the single market. Additionally, a substantially weakened pound is increasing companies’ costs by lifting prices for imported oil, commodities and components.
On the positive side, a markedly weaker pound should support UK exports, although we suspect lacklustre growth in the eurozone will limit the upside. Eurozone growth is seen being pressurised in 2017 by heightened political uncertainty across the region.
Post edited at 20:00
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In reply to Timmd:
Yes, I'm in almost exactly the same situation. We'll be just about OK ... but I am fearful for the future of the UK. In fact, I've been feeling continually gloomy for seven months now. It's a very deep thing, exacerbated by Trump in America. I feel that everything I've ever believed in - of any real and lasting value, including rational thinking and truth, and our whole culture - is being systematically undermined, broken up, destroyed. I do not see any light at the end of this tunnel - that we've now entered.
> It's hard not to feel gloomy. I'm just really thankful I'm from a family which has done well enough that I'll personally be fairly okay financially, even if I do end up working minimum wage jobs, but that's not a huge consolation in the scheme of things, given the economic outlook presented by the FT.
Yes, I'm in almost exactly the same situation. We'll be just about OK ... but I am fearful for the future of the UK. In fact, I've been feeling continually gloomy for seven months now. It's a very deep thing, exacerbated by Trump in America. I feel that everything I've ever believed in - of any real and lasting value, including rational thinking and truth, and our whole culture - is being systematically undermined, broken up, destroyed. I do not see any light at the end of this tunnel - that we've now entered.
> If the fact the national debt has actually increased under the Conservatives is added to that, there's been cheerier things to think about...
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
I guess in the longer term (towards the middle or end of the century) things could become cheerier again?
I seem to have started thinking I'm going to make my own life as good/cheery as I can 'despite' the daftness of what might be happening around me. I guess it could either be seen as self absorbed, or as survival, but you can't let world events make you too gloomy, ie let what's beyond your control have that affect. Look into Buddhism?
> Yes, I'm in almost exactly the same situation. We'll be just about OK ... but I am fearful for the future of the UK. In fact, I've been feeling continually gloomy for seven months now. It's a very deep thing, exacerbated by Trump in America. I feel that everything I've ever believed in - of any real and lasting value, including rational thinking and truth, and our whole culture - is being systematically undermined, broken up, destroyed. I do not see any light at the end of this tunnel - that we've now entered.
I guess in the longer term (towards the middle or end of the century) things could become cheerier again?
I seem to have started thinking I'm going to make my own life as good/cheery as I can 'despite' the daftness of what might be happening around me. I guess it could either be seen as self absorbed, or as survival, but you can't let world events make you too gloomy, ie let what's beyond your control have that affect. Look into Buddhism?
Post edited at 20:16
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In reply to Timmd:
Yes, I suspect so ... once we've had another world war, and what's left of Britain (probably just England, and Wales if we're lucky) by then ... when we go grovelling back to Europe. But it'll be too late for us.
But I am fearful for my nephews and nieces, assuming they survive the near-inevitable conflict.
Yes, I'm just like that. If you came to my home you wouldn't guess how intellectually disturbed I am – Freda and I live quite like Buddhists anyway - all very simple, and domestically contented. The meaning of my life comes mostly from my work, making things of value that will outlive me.
> I guess in the longer term (towards the middle or end of the century) things could become cheerier again?
Yes, I suspect so ... once we've had another world war, and what's left of Britain (probably just England, and Wales if we're lucky) by then ... when we go grovelling back to Europe. But it'll be too late for us.
But I am fearful for my nephews and nieces, assuming they survive the near-inevitable conflict.
> I seem to have started thinking I'm going to make my own life as good/cheery as I can 'despite' the daftness of what might be happening around me. I guess it could either be seen as self absorbed, or as survival, but you can't let world events make you too gloomy, ie let what's beyond your control have that affect. Look into Buddhism?
Yes, I'm just like that. If you came to my home you wouldn't guess how intellectually disturbed I am – Freda and I live quite like Buddhists anyway - all very simple, and domestically contented. The meaning of my life comes mostly from my work, making things of value that will outlive me.
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Couldn't agree more. Corbyn has been weak on the electorate but oh so strong on his power base. unfortunately that power base has no hope of exerting any influence; it is an anachronism.
> PS. A shameful day for Labour.
Couldn't agree more. Corbyn has been weak on the electorate but oh so strong on his power base. unfortunately that power base has no hope of exerting any influence; it is an anachronism.
4
In reply to FesteringSore:
09/11/16: "I can't believe Donald Trump was elected President"
20/01/17: "I can't believe Donald Trump is President"
09/11/18: "I wonder who will win the Hunger Games this year...?"
09/11/16: "I can't believe Donald Trump was elected President"
20/01/17: "I can't believe Donald Trump is President"
09/11/18: "I wonder who will win the Hunger Games this year...?"
1
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Why, for representing their electorates? Labour areas predominantly voted leave.
> Well, the disaster moves ever nearer. The Commons vote is 498:114.
> PS. A shameful day for Labour.
Why, for representing their electorates? Labour areas predominantly voted leave.
6
6
In reply to Timmd:
Financially people in the UK will do OK, probably not nearly as well as they did if we had stayed in the EU, but nevertheless.
And it won't be thanks to politicians or Brexit, it will be down to real people doing actual work.
Worst case scenario they'll have less money to spend on useless crap.
However money issues will probably be the last of their worries when they hear the sound of those nukes flying over their heads.
> It's hard not to feel gloomy. I'm just really thankful I'm from a family which has done well enough that I'll personally be fairly okay financially, even if I do end up working minimum wage jobs, but that's not a huge consolation in the scheme of things, given the economic outlook presented by the FT.
Financially people in the UK will do OK, probably not nearly as well as they did if we had stayed in the EU, but nevertheless.
And it won't be thanks to politicians or Brexit, it will be down to real people doing actual work.
Worst case scenario they'll have less money to spend on useless crap.
However money issues will probably be the last of their worries when they hear the sound of those nukes flying over their heads.
2
3
In reply to Big Ger:
>Labour areas predominantly voted leave.
A demonstrable 'alternative fact'?
>Labour areas predominantly voted leave.
A demonstrable 'alternative fact'?
Post edited at 22:19
4
2
In reply to pasbury:
One which you, ironically, fail to demonstrate.
from various sources;
Levels of education and class overlap strongly in the UK, and so the Brexit vote also matched up with areas with higher levels of people from the DE social class - meaning people in semi-skilled or unskilled labour, those in casual labour and pensioners. This includes Blaenau Gwent in Wales, which has the highest working class population in Britain. Some 62 percent of voters here went for Leave. Just three of the top fifty areas with the highest share of people from DE class backgrounds voted to Remain.
Chris Hanretty, a politics lecturer at the University of East Anglia, used statistic analysis to work out how the results for local authorities transfer onto constituencies. He revealed 401 out of 632 MPs represent constituencies which voted for Brexit in the referendum.
The politics expert said that though his figures are not definite, and he has revised his previous estimation that 421 constituencies voted out. The number equates to 63 per cent of constituencies, adding to the growing pressure on politicians not to defy the will of the electorate when Article 50 is put to a vote in the House of Commons.
See also;
https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed...
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028
> A demonstrable 'alternative fact'?
One which you, ironically, fail to demonstrate.
from various sources;
Levels of education and class overlap strongly in the UK, and so the Brexit vote also matched up with areas with higher levels of people from the DE social class - meaning people in semi-skilled or unskilled labour, those in casual labour and pensioners. This includes Blaenau Gwent in Wales, which has the highest working class population in Britain. Some 62 percent of voters here went for Leave. Just three of the top fifty areas with the highest share of people from DE class backgrounds voted to Remain.
Chris Hanretty, a politics lecturer at the University of East Anglia, used statistic analysis to work out how the results for local authorities transfer onto constituencies. He revealed 401 out of 632 MPs represent constituencies which voted for Brexit in the referendum.
The politics expert said that though his figures are not definite, and he has revised his previous estimation that 421 constituencies voted out. The number equates to 63 per cent of constituencies, adding to the growing pressure on politicians not to defy the will of the electorate when Article 50 is put to a vote in the House of Commons.
See also;
https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed...
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028
Post edited at 22:34
3
1
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Cheery thought. That said it'll be Europe that gets flattened again in any widespread conflict, so there won't be much to grovel to.
Do you think things are as bad as they were in the days of the Cuban missile crisis, or when the BAOR was waiting for the 3rd Shock Army to come through the Fulda Gap?
We live in a time of great uncertainty, when a lot of things people believed to be immovable have been shown to have very shaky foundations. It might even wake people up. At the risk of sounding unsympathetic, I wonder if all the doom and gloom is a symptom of middle class people, who believed that every generation of their family would do better than the one before, being faced with the challenges that the bulk of the world's population have always had to deal with.
That,s all that any of us can do at present.
> Yes, I suspect so ... once we've had another world war, and what's left of Britain (probably just England, and Wales if we're lucky) by then ... when we go grovelling back to Europe. But it'll be too late for us.
Cheery thought. That said it'll be Europe that gets flattened again in any widespread conflict, so there won't be much to grovel to.
> But I am fearful for my nephews and nieces, assuming they survive the near-inevitable conflict.
Do you think things are as bad as they were in the days of the Cuban missile crisis, or when the BAOR was waiting for the 3rd Shock Army to come through the Fulda Gap?
We live in a time of great uncertainty, when a lot of things people believed to be immovable have been shown to have very shaky foundations. It might even wake people up. At the risk of sounding unsympathetic, I wonder if all the doom and gloom is a symptom of middle class people, who believed that every generation of their family would do better than the one before, being faced with the challenges that the bulk of the world's population have always had to deal with.
> Yes, I'm just like that. If you came to my home you wouldn't guess how intellectually disturbed I am – Freda and I live quite like Buddhists anyway - all very simple, and domestically contented. The meaning of my life comes mostly from my work, making things of value that will outlive me.
That,s all that any of us can do at present.
3
In reply to Ridge:
I don't think it's quite as immediately serious as the Cuban missile crisis, as there is no crisis as yet ... but it could come at any moment, and in some ways it's much worse, because at least at the Cuban crisis the two world leaders were completely sane ... and thus no missiles were ultimately fired.
Well, we're talking about a very different challenge here: madness rather than hardship (or perhaps madness combined with hardship). It would be a huge mistake to dismiss this simply as a symptom of middle-class angst. I think.
>That,s all that any of us can do at present.
Yes, and cheers. Let's look on the bright side at a personal level. And let the wreckers bring disaster on themselves.
> Do you think things are as bad as they were in the days of the Cuban missile crisis, or when the BAOR was waiting for the 3rd Shock Army to come through the Fulda Gap?
I don't think it's quite as immediately serious as the Cuban missile crisis, as there is no crisis as yet ... but it could come at any moment, and in some ways it's much worse, because at least at the Cuban crisis the two world leaders were completely sane ... and thus no missiles were ultimately fired.
> We live in a time of great uncertainty, when a lot of things people believed to be immovable have been shown to have very shaky foundations. It might even wake people up. At the risk of sounding unsympathetic, I wonder if all the doom and gloom is a symptom of middle class people, who believed that every generation of their family would do better than the one before, being faced with the challenges that the bulk of the world's population have always had to deal with.
Well, we're talking about a very different challenge here: madness rather than hardship (or perhaps madness combined with hardship). It would be a huge mistake to dismiss this simply as a symptom of middle-class angst. I think.
>That,s all that any of us can do at present.
Yes, and cheers. Let's look on the bright side at a personal level. And let the wreckers bring disaster on themselves.
3
1
In reply to Ridge:
They are more dangerous in some parts of the world - eg India/Pakistan, N Korea, China/Japan/US
They are more dangerous in some parts of the world - eg India/Pakistan, N Korea, China/Japan/US
1
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Why do you single out the Labour Part for special opprobrium on this?
> Well, the disaster moves ever nearer. The Commons vote is 498:114.
> PS. A shameful day for Labour.
Why do you single out the Labour Part for special opprobrium on this?
In reply to Ridge:
is this a middle class thing? Coming from Ireland I am still confused about class here after 20 years? Do the English working class know their place and never dream of their children being better off? My Dad was a butcher and one thing he wanted was for us to do better than he did, this was typical in Ireland where everyone saw education as a way to escape poverty/improve their lives.
> I wonder if all the doom and gloom is a symptom of middle class people, who believed that every generation of their family would do better than the one before,
is this a middle class thing? Coming from Ireland I am still confused about class here after 20 years? Do the English working class know their place and never dream of their children being better off? My Dad was a butcher and one thing he wanted was for us to do better than he did, this was typical in Ireland where everyone saw education as a way to escape poverty/improve their lives.
1
In reply to FesteringSore:
And now we have:
François Fillon fights to save presidential bid amid fake jobs scandal
French rightwing candidate was favourite to win but latest poll shows him being eliminated in first round as backlash grows
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/01/francois-fillon-fights-save-f...
This is the guy who was seen has having enough general appeal to defeat Marine Le Pen in the presidential election. Latest polls show her in the lead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_e...
I'm starting to think that the EU may not make it to 2020.
And now we have:
François Fillon fights to save presidential bid amid fake jobs scandal
French rightwing candidate was favourite to win but latest poll shows him being eliminated in first round as backlash grows
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/01/francois-fillon-fights-save-f...
This is the guy who was seen has having enough general appeal to defeat Marine Le Pen in the presidential election. Latest polls show her in the lead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_e...
I'm starting to think that the EU may not make it to 2020.
Post edited at 10:22
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
I too feel like this, it's actually not good for my health. Let's at least get out on the hills and try to forget about it for a bit.
> Yes, I'm in almost exactly the same situation. We'll be just about OK ... but I am fearful for the future of the UK. In fact, I've been feeling continually gloomy for seven months now. It's a very deep thing, exacerbated by Trump in America. I feel that everything I've ever believed in - of any real and lasting value, including rational thinking and truth, and our whole culture - is being systematically undermined, broken up, destroyed. I do not see any light at the end of this tunnel - that we've now entered.
I too feel like this, it's actually not good for my health. Let's at least get out on the hills and try to forget about it for a bit.
3
In reply to FesteringSore:
This is one of the more interesting reads on what Trumps presidency might look like:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocr...
The punch line is that it's written by a speechwriter for...... George W Bush
This is one of the more interesting reads on what Trumps presidency might look like:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocr...
The punch line is that it's written by a speechwriter for...... George W Bush
3
In reply to Ridge:
I think that's very much it.
We haven't necessarily declined as much as we think in absolute terms. Just everyone else is catching up/fulfilling their potential and we therefore no longer call the shots to the degree we once did. We also like to think ourselves as smart and skilled at predicting WWIII because things aren't going our way, when in reality WWIII is probably just as likely to start through some obscure set of circumstances or stupidity completely unrelated to anything going on today. Maybe even Trump-like behaviours allow a bit of steam to be released from the system. Wars probably occur when you least expect them. not when you think they're round the corner....which I realise, makes my argument somewhat circular.
> I wonder if all the doom and gloom is a symptom of middle class people, who believed that every generation of their family would do better than the one before, being faced with the challenges that the bulk of the world's population have always had to deal with.
I think that's very much it.
We haven't necessarily declined as much as we think in absolute terms. Just everyone else is catching up/fulfilling their potential and we therefore no longer call the shots to the degree we once did. We also like to think ourselves as smart and skilled at predicting WWIII because things aren't going our way, when in reality WWIII is probably just as likely to start through some obscure set of circumstances or stupidity completely unrelated to anything going on today. Maybe even Trump-like behaviours allow a bit of steam to be released from the system. Wars probably occur when you least expect them. not when you think they're round the corner....which I realise, makes my argument somewhat circular.
1
1
In reply to David Martin:
One of the few people who can see the full seriousness of what is happening seems to be Gorbachev:
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2066450/mikhail...
One of the few people who can see the full seriousness of what is happening seems to be Gorbachev:
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2066450/mikhail...
In reply to David Martin:
Well I suggest you go to the library and go through the newspapers archive of the 1930.
It's almost uncanny, everybody could see the situation was going to lead to war, but very few commentators could really admit it fully.
Our brains are pre-programmed to think everything will always be fine, but sometimes you just have to fave a hard look at the facts.
Well I suggest you go to the library and go through the newspapers archive of the 1930.
It's almost uncanny, everybody could see the situation was going to lead to war, but very few commentators could really admit it fully.
Our brains are pre-programmed to think everything will always be fine, but sometimes you just have to fave a hard look at the facts.
Post edited at 11:41
3
In reply to RomTheBear:
Steve Bannon was saying a few months ago the US are heading for a war with China in the south china sea ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/02/steve-bannon-donald-trump-w...
Steve Bannon was saying a few months ago the US are heading for a war with China in the south china sea ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/02/steve-bannon-donald-trump-w...
In reply to Andy Hardy:
This is interesting
http://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-china-scorecard.html
A significant chance the US would lose, or struggle severely, it appears. Hopefully this encourages some sanity.
> Steve Bannon was saying a few months ago the US are heading for a war with China in the south china sea ...
This is interesting
http://www.rand.org/paf/projects/us-china-scorecard.html
A significant chance the US would lose, or struggle severely, it appears. Hopefully this encourages some sanity.
In reply to Andy Hardy:
Must be about the only thing he and John Pilger agree about:
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/dec/01/the-coming-war-on-china-review...
Must be about the only thing he and John Pilger agree about:
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/dec/01/the-coming-war-on-china-review...
In reply to RomTheBear:
And back in George Bush's Jnr's time we were going to go to war with Iran, with China (when they took the yank's P3) and with North Korea. We're constantly seeing warning signs that war is around the corner and are almost as paranoid as the nasty fringe in the US who see enemies around every corner. We may mislead ourselves to believe everything is fine. But we equally forget how all those previous dire predictions failed to materialise, in much the same way doomsdayers forget all their previous failed predictions. If we're going to accuse the right of scare-mongering and hyperbole, it would be worth keeping an eye on it ourselves.
And back in George Bush's Jnr's time we were going to go to war with Iran, with China (when they took the yank's P3) and with North Korea. We're constantly seeing warning signs that war is around the corner and are almost as paranoid as the nasty fringe in the US who see enemies around every corner. We may mislead ourselves to believe everything is fine. But we equally forget how all those previous dire predictions failed to materialise, in much the same way doomsdayers forget all their previous failed predictions. If we're going to accuse the right of scare-mongering and hyperbole, it would be worth keeping an eye on it ourselves.
In reply to Andy Hardy:
I'd be a bit surprised if other world leaders didn't see through the Trump regime's bluster. Every time a North Korean leader threatens the world with a nuclear maelstrom, we don't jump straight to Defcon1. The world by and large understands that certain people behave certain ways and that taking it all at face value isn't the wisest move.
> Steve Bannon was saying a few months ago the US are heading for a war with China in the south china sea ...
I'd be a bit surprised if other world leaders didn't see through the Trump regime's bluster. Every time a North Korean leader threatens the world with a nuclear maelstrom, we don't jump straight to Defcon1. The world by and large understands that certain people behave certain ways and that taking it all at face value isn't the wisest move.
In reply to David Martin:
Somehow I don't find the line "It's Ok, the US is as rational as N Korea" very comforting.
Somehow I don't find the line "It's Ok, the US is as rational as N Korea" very comforting.
3
In reply to MG:
Indeed. Nothing about this is comforting.
But running around like the sky is falling isn't either and is possibly just as likely to make the world go unstuck:
...terrified lefty assassinates Trump believing he is doing the world a favour and has the support of the masses,
...even more evil vice-Pres comes to power and enacts emergency powers,
...crack downs in other countries fearing similar rogue lefties,
...the hard and moderate right become even more sure and justified in their opinions of the left,
...open season on minority political views and few are willing to stand up in light of the action which triggered it all,
etc. etc.
...which is, in my opinion, a far more plausible scenario than "Trump bombs China".
Indeed. Nothing about this is comforting.
But running around like the sky is falling isn't either and is possibly just as likely to make the world go unstuck:
...terrified lefty assassinates Trump believing he is doing the world a favour and has the support of the masses,
...even more evil vice-Pres comes to power and enacts emergency powers,
...crack downs in other countries fearing similar rogue lefties,
...the hard and moderate right become even more sure and justified in their opinions of the left,
...open season on minority political views and few are willing to stand up in light of the action which triggered it all,
etc. etc.
...which is, in my opinion, a far more plausible scenario than "Trump bombs China".
2
In reply to David Martin:
Indeed, but one has to look bluntly at the facts. What's happening in Washington at the moment is the start of a totalitarian regime in the US. Make no mistake about it.
> And back in George Bush's Jnr's time we were going to go to war with Iran, with China (when they took the yank's P3) and with North Korea. We're constantly seeing warning signs that war is around the corner and are almost as paranoid as the nasty fringe in the US who see enemies around every corner. We may mislead ourselves to believe everything is fine. But we equally forget how all those previous dire predictions failed to materialise, in much the same way doomsdayers forget all their previous failed predictions. If we're going to accuse the right of scare-mongering and hyperbole, it would be worth keeping an eye on it ourselves.
Indeed, but one has to look bluntly at the facts. What's happening in Washington at the moment is the start of a totalitarian regime in the US. Make no mistake about it.
2
In reply to RomTheBear:
Let's not forget, Steve Bannon is a self-confessed nihilist, who wants to tear down 'the establishment ' I reckon he feels he's got unfinished business left over from his Navy days.
I think if we aren't part if the solution, we are part of the problem, and so, folks, let's get busy funding something that fits in with what you're good at or want to achieve.
Let's not forget, Steve Bannon is a self-confessed nihilist, who wants to tear down 'the establishment ' I reckon he feels he's got unfinished business left over from his Navy days.
I think if we aren't part if the solution, we are part of the problem, and so, folks, let's get busy funding something that fits in with what you're good at or want to achieve.
In reply to RomTheBear:
We're going to be OK then, what with your predictions so far!
> Indeed, but one has to look bluntly at the facts. What's happening in Washington at the moment is the start of a totalitarian regime in the US. Make no mistake about it.
We're going to be OK then, what with your predictions so far!
3
In reply to FesteringSore:
The EU continues to lurch from crisis to crisis relying on their tried and tested solution of kicking the really tricky problems into the long grass.
They continue sucking up to the banks, corporations and lobbyists whilst unrest in the general population rises until the riots start. Soon after all anti EU parties are proscribed and are labelled terrorist organisations, facilitating the creation of the EU army under the guise of a peace keeping organisation. Mandatory service of which is a requirement for all under 30’s to reduce unemployment.
Meanwhile they run out of creative financial instrument and finally go broke, only to be bailed out by Chinese banks after the EU becomes the People's Republic of Europe.
Over the pond the USA economy goes from strength to strength and people see the benefits of a government that actually delivers on their election aspirations without them going through the usual committees, consultations, debates and compromises until they end up a homeopathic version of the original. Trump elected as overlord of the free world.
Closer to home Scotland agrees to become a region of Ireland to placate the Spanish objection to them joining the EU, but only if they can keep the pound.
Far fetched? Perhaps. But no worse that the doom and gloom predictions of nuclear war and the end of civilisation as we know it from most of the posts above.
The EU continues to lurch from crisis to crisis relying on their tried and tested solution of kicking the really tricky problems into the long grass.
They continue sucking up to the banks, corporations and lobbyists whilst unrest in the general population rises until the riots start. Soon after all anti EU parties are proscribed and are labelled terrorist organisations, facilitating the creation of the EU army under the guise of a peace keeping organisation. Mandatory service of which is a requirement for all under 30’s to reduce unemployment.
Meanwhile they run out of creative financial instrument and finally go broke, only to be bailed out by Chinese banks after the EU becomes the People's Republic of Europe.
Over the pond the USA economy goes from strength to strength and people see the benefits of a government that actually delivers on their election aspirations without them going through the usual committees, consultations, debates and compromises until they end up a homeopathic version of the original. Trump elected as overlord of the free world.
Closer to home Scotland agrees to become a region of Ireland to placate the Spanish objection to them joining the EU, but only if they can keep the pound.
Far fetched? Perhaps. But no worse that the doom and gloom predictions of nuclear war and the end of civilisation as we know it from most of the posts above.
4
In reply to Lusk:
Well everybody accused me of being a pessimist when I was predicting Brexit, and same again when I was predicting Trump.
I've made some good money on betfair at least.
Unfortunately my pessimistic predictions keep realising, I'd love to be proven wrong though.
> We're going to be OK then, what with your predictions so far!
Well everybody accused me of being a pessimist when I was predicting Brexit, and same again when I was predicting Trump.
I've made some good money on betfair at least.
Unfortunately my pessimistic predictions keep realising, I'd love to be proven wrong though.
1
In reply to pasbury:
Massively uninformed about things like this;
> You are massively uninformed.
Massively uninformed about things like this;
> Italy is in discussions with the European Commission to try to prevent Brussels imposing penalties over Rome's management of its public finances, sources close to the talks said on Monday. Italy was one of eight eurozone countries warned in November that they could face fines and restricted access to funds from Brussels over their failure to stick to the EU's Stability Pact rules. The daily La Repubblica said on Monday the European Commission last week asked the government to find 3.4 billion euros (3.6 billion dollars), or 0.2 percent of GDP, in order to avoid the start of an infringement procedure.
> A deadline for the conclusion of Greece’s bailout review is set for Feb 20. Further complications arise from the International Monetary Fund. Several European countries (most notably Germany) have said the IMF’s participation in the bailout is essential. So far, the institution has resisted contributing any more to the rescue unless something is done to restructure Greece’s massive debts; it considers the current plan doomed to fail otherwise. Germany and other creditors, however, are resisting debt relief that would come largely at their expense (both financially and politically).
1
1
In reply to FesteringSore:
Domestically in the US god knows. I was shocked by the numbers at the inauguration thing which had photographic proof and the White House saying a total lie. Almost confirms what was said in Alan Curtis's film hyponormalisation about Vladislav Surkov and his use of tactics to confuse the population.
Internationally, Putin is going to be testing resolve by doing another Ukraine. If America lets Russia occupy say Georgia I think Europe will as well.
Domestically in the US god knows. I was shocked by the numbers at the inauguration thing which had photographic proof and the White House saying a total lie. Almost confirms what was said in Alan Curtis's film hyponormalisation about Vladislav Surkov and his use of tactics to confuse the population.
Internationally, Putin is going to be testing resolve by doing another Ukraine. If America lets Russia occupy say Georgia I think Europe will as well.
Post edited at 01:46
1
In reply to RX-78:
Everyone wants their children to be better off than they were, and of course people want to escape poverty. This isn't about people in poverty wanting a better life, it's about what seems to be a cultural expectation that we must get richer and richer, and if we don't then the apocalypse must be upon us.
I was probably clumsy in using the term 'middle class', but there are people in the UK who live extremely comfortable lives by UK, let alone world standards. (I admit I'm one of them). However that comfortable lifestyle is built on other people living in poverty to provide cheap goods and services. Originally we outsourced the poverty to the third world, but for several years we've been creating a 'precariat' of people doing jobs with zero hours and no prospects. These people have been looked down on, ignored, marginalised and demonised as being lazy, feckless and undeserving. They also see the absolute worst aspects of immigration, and don't see many of the benefits. That's why Brexit happened. I'm certain things will get worse for them, but they weren't going to get any better if we carried on as we were.
Yes, I'm going to get poorer, not retire as expected and my savings are going to get hammered. That's life unfortunately, I don't have a God given right to my lifestyle. However it's not the End of Days, I'm not going to bore the younger generations with "when we were in the EU you knew everybody, we left our doors open and there was no crime, Bobbies rode round on bicycles...". It's a golden past that never really existed, except for a fortunate few, a bit like the past Ukip want us to return to.
I have now completely lost my train of thought so I'm off to work...
> is this a middle class thing? Coming from Ireland I am still confused about class here after 20 years? Do the English working class know their place and never dream of their children being better off? My Dad was a butcher and one thing he wanted was for us to do better than he did, this was typical in Ireland where everyone saw education as a way to escape poverty/improve their lives.
Everyone wants their children to be better off than they were, and of course people want to escape poverty. This isn't about people in poverty wanting a better life, it's about what seems to be a cultural expectation that we must get richer and richer, and if we don't then the apocalypse must be upon us.
I was probably clumsy in using the term 'middle class', but there are people in the UK who live extremely comfortable lives by UK, let alone world standards. (I admit I'm one of them). However that comfortable lifestyle is built on other people living in poverty to provide cheap goods and services. Originally we outsourced the poverty to the third world, but for several years we've been creating a 'precariat' of people doing jobs with zero hours and no prospects. These people have been looked down on, ignored, marginalised and demonised as being lazy, feckless and undeserving. They also see the absolute worst aspects of immigration, and don't see many of the benefits. That's why Brexit happened. I'm certain things will get worse for them, but they weren't going to get any better if we carried on as we were.
Yes, I'm going to get poorer, not retire as expected and my savings are going to get hammered. That's life unfortunately, I don't have a God given right to my lifestyle. However it's not the End of Days, I'm not going to bore the younger generations with "when we were in the EU you knew everybody, we left our doors open and there was no crime, Bobbies rode round on bicycles...". It's a golden past that never really existed, except for a fortunate few, a bit like the past Ukip want us to return to.
I have now completely lost my train of thought so I'm off to work...
6
In reply to Ridge:
I think you're pandering to the myth that opposing brexit and Trump is just middle cksss liberals who want to hold on to their little privileges.
And that's exactly what they want you to believe, it's part of their populist narrative.
What were seeing is the start of a new kind of totalitarian state in the US, Trump is forcing everybody to take a side, and it seems the UK will side with him.
I think you're pandering to the myth that opposing brexit and Trump is just middle cksss liberals who want to hold on to their little privileges.
And that's exactly what they want you to believe, it's part of their populist narrative.
What were seeing is the start of a new kind of totalitarian state in the US, Trump is forcing everybody to take a side, and it seems the UK will side with him.
Post edited at 08:12
In reply to RomTheBear:
stories like this worry me - where is the necessity to destroy people's lives?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-38852020
stories like this worry me - where is the necessity to destroy people's lives?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-38852020
1
In reply to FesteringSore:
His family will emerge from the next four years fabulously wealthy. Whether there is a paper/digital trail of their activities during this time, who knows?
> How do UKCers think things will proceed over the next four years if Trump carries on the way he is going at the moment? Surely something will give. The question is what and when?
His family will emerge from the next four years fabulously wealthy. Whether there is a paper/digital trail of their activities during this time, who knows?
1
In reply to RomTheBear:
Not at all. I agree that Trump and to a lesser extent Brexit are bad things overall. However I also don't buy into the myth that the EU was the shining bastion of workers rights.
EU dogma on free movement, (enthusiastically embraced by the UK govt, despite them blaming the evil EU), together with the huge wage disparities across the EU member states has led to the low wage, zero hours business model that has eroded workers rights. This has fuelled a lot of the sentiment behind the Brexit vote. There is currently a virtually limitless supply of trained/educated labour willing to work long hours in poor conditions for low wages. Using agencies that supply 'self employed' workers is a nice wheeze for getting round minimum wage regulations. This depresses wages in the unskilled sector.
Things aren't much better for those with a higher level of education. Why bother taking on a school leaver with GCSEs and invest in them when you can get a fresh Polish graduate who'll work all hours for a couple of years before moving on? The impact on tradesmen has been similar.
It's only when you get up to the level of highly skilled / professional people that the siuation equalises out. You might lose out on job in London to someone from Spain or Poland, but there are similar opportunites for you in Dusseldorf or wherever. These are the people who benefit most from the opportunities of free movement, not those trapped in the gig economy for life because wages are even lower in Europe.
It's no good waving a copy of an OECD report that says GDP is up 0.6% and wages have only gone down by 0.8% for the DE social groups at someone on a zero hours contract and telling them to rejoice at what the EU has acheived. It's not all about economics. (A referundum campaign along the lines of "Vote Remain - it'll be marginally less shit for you than leaving" probably didn't help".
'They' are exactly the same corporate interests that influence politicians of any hue.
The tories will ruthless exploit the situation to the detriment of the more vulnerable, but that's exactly what I expect them to do. The problem is there is no credible opposition to them in the UK. A centrist party with a social conscience, (a bit like New Labour without the spin and fondness for killing dusky hued people in the ME to ensure those profitable lecture tours in the US). That is the really scary thing for the UK.
In an earlier post you said:
Which isn't too far off my position.
> I think you're pandering to the myth that opposing brexit and Trump is just middle cksss liberals who want to hold on to their little privileges.
Not at all. I agree that Trump and to a lesser extent Brexit are bad things overall. However I also don't buy into the myth that the EU was the shining bastion of workers rights.
EU dogma on free movement, (enthusiastically embraced by the UK govt, despite them blaming the evil EU), together with the huge wage disparities across the EU member states has led to the low wage, zero hours business model that has eroded workers rights. This has fuelled a lot of the sentiment behind the Brexit vote. There is currently a virtually limitless supply of trained/educated labour willing to work long hours in poor conditions for low wages. Using agencies that supply 'self employed' workers is a nice wheeze for getting round minimum wage regulations. This depresses wages in the unskilled sector.
Things aren't much better for those with a higher level of education. Why bother taking on a school leaver with GCSEs and invest in them when you can get a fresh Polish graduate who'll work all hours for a couple of years before moving on? The impact on tradesmen has been similar.
It's only when you get up to the level of highly skilled / professional people that the siuation equalises out. You might lose out on job in London to someone from Spain or Poland, but there are similar opportunites for you in Dusseldorf or wherever. These are the people who benefit most from the opportunities of free movement, not those trapped in the gig economy for life because wages are even lower in Europe.
It's no good waving a copy of an OECD report that says GDP is up 0.6% and wages have only gone down by 0.8% for the DE social groups at someone on a zero hours contract and telling them to rejoice at what the EU has acheived. It's not all about economics. (A referundum campaign along the lines of "Vote Remain - it'll be marginally less shit for you than leaving" probably didn't help".
> And that's exactly what they want you to believe, it's part of their populist narrative.
'They' are exactly the same corporate interests that influence politicians of any hue.
> What were seeing is the start of a new kind of totalitarian state in the US, Trump is forcing everybody to take a side, and it seems the UK will side with him.
The tories will ruthless exploit the situation to the detriment of the more vulnerable, but that's exactly what I expect them to do. The problem is there is no credible opposition to them in the UK. A centrist party with a social conscience, (a bit like New Labour without the spin and fondness for killing dusky hued people in the ME to ensure those profitable lecture tours in the US). That is the really scary thing for the UK.
In an earlier post you said:
> Financially people in the UK will do OK, probably not nearly as well as they did if we had stayed in the EU, but nevertheless.
> And it won't be thanks to politicians or Brexit, it will be down to real people doing actual work.
> Worst case scenario they'll have less money to spend on useless crap.
Which isn't too far off my position.
3
In reply to Big Ger:
Damn! And there was me thinking this whole thread was about speculating on the very extreme possibilities of what might happen and maybe raising a smile or three.
Sorry, I didn’t realise you had to be thoroughly au fait with all aspects of geo-political relations, EU propaganda and be totally serious, in order to take part. So those predicting nuclear war and the end of civilisation, are getting their info from where, or is pure speculation reserved only for the remoaners and those terrified by any prospect of change to the status quo?
Also, what the EU says and what the EU does, are not automatically the same thing (from my admittedly limited and sceptical perspective). So let’s see what happens on the 20th Feb. My guess – another punt to the long grass. Only 17 days to go to find out who’s right.
> You are massively uninformed.
> Massively uninformed about things like this;
> Massively uninformed about things like this;
Damn! And there was me thinking this whole thread was about speculating on the very extreme possibilities of what might happen and maybe raising a smile or three.
Sorry, I didn’t realise you had to be thoroughly au fait with all aspects of geo-political relations, EU propaganda and be totally serious, in order to take part. So those predicting nuclear war and the end of civilisation, are getting their info from where, or is pure speculation reserved only for the remoaners and those terrified by any prospect of change to the status quo?
Also, what the EU says and what the EU does, are not automatically the same thing (from my admittedly limited and sceptical perspective). So let’s see what happens on the 20th Feb. My guess – another punt to the long grass. Only 17 days to go to find out who’s right.
1
In reply to Ridge:
I agree with all that. But its interesting that the usual counterpoint is to throw forth a few studies that claim that none of this is the case, that there has been little or no downward pressure in wages and that migrants are a net benefit. As a result, I have to admit I don't know what to believe. Either the studies are wrong, or basic economics of supply and demand are wrong. I sadly don't know how many, or what quality, the studies were that refute your points, and find it difficult to come down on one side or another.
In that sense its little different from the alternative truths arguments we see coming out of the US, and appears our own political discourse is probably not that much healthier than that in the US.
I agree with all that. But its interesting that the usual counterpoint is to throw forth a few studies that claim that none of this is the case, that there has been little or no downward pressure in wages and that migrants are a net benefit. As a result, I have to admit I don't know what to believe. Either the studies are wrong, or basic economics of supply and demand are wrong. I sadly don't know how many, or what quality, the studies were that refute your points, and find it difficult to come down on one side or another.
In that sense its little different from the alternative truths arguments we see coming out of the US, and appears our own political discourse is probably not that much healthier than that in the US.
1
In reply to Mark Edwards:
Mark, I was taking the pee out of pasbury, not you.
The forum needs a sarcasm emoji.
Mark, I was taking the pee out of pasbury, not you.
The forum needs a sarcasm emoji.
2
In reply to Mark Edwards:
I'm not sure the thread was supposed to be a 'what's the worst doomsday scenario you can think of' type thing. And even if it was, your scenario was so strange I assumed it was motivated by a very biased viewpoint.
I'm not sure the thread was supposed to be a 'what's the worst doomsday scenario you can think of' type thing. And even if it was, your scenario was so strange I assumed it was motivated by a very biased viewpoint.
In reply to Big Ger:
Just wanted to add my twisted (and hopefully humorous, to some) take on the thread. No problem. Bye.
Just wanted to add my twisted (and hopefully humorous, to some) take on the thread. No problem. Bye.
1
In reply to David Martin:
Could you please stop agreeing with me. I'm in agreement with a lot of what you've posted lately, and that's scarier than Trump in the Whitehouse
Depends on your perspective really. In terms of net economic benefit then obviously migration is a plus. If you're a business owner, have the money to be a serious consumer who uses parastic companies like Amazon, or like the idea of an underclass doing the dirty jobs then it's a plus. If your sole measure of the sucess of a nation is GDP then it's a plus. 'Little' downward pressure on wages is a massive negative for those at the bottom.
Ditto. Every study is generally produced by a think tank with an agenda.
I agree completely. It seems the world is split into two camps who each implicitly believe their own propaganda, and the rest who have no idea what to believe in. Maybe the best lack all conviction and the worst are full of passionate intensity?
> I agree with all that.
Could you please stop agreeing with me. I'm in agreement with a lot of what you've posted lately, and that's scarier than Trump in the Whitehouse
> But its interesting that the usual counterpoint is to throw forth a few studies that claim that none of this is the case, that there has been little or no downward pressure in wages and that migrants are a net benefit.
Depends on your perspective really. In terms of net economic benefit then obviously migration is a plus. If you're a business owner, have the money to be a serious consumer who uses parastic companies like Amazon, or like the idea of an underclass doing the dirty jobs then it's a plus. If your sole measure of the sucess of a nation is GDP then it's a plus. 'Little' downward pressure on wages is a massive negative for those at the bottom.
> As a result, I have to admit I don't know what to believe. Either the studies are wrong, or basic economics of supply and demand are wrong. I sadly don't know how many, or what quality, the studies were that refute your points, and find it difficult to come down on one side or another.
Ditto. Every study is generally produced by a think tank with an agenda.
> In that sense its little different from the alternative truths arguments we see coming out of the US, and appears our own political discourse is probably not that much healthier than that in the US.
I agree completely. It seems the world is split into two camps who each implicitly believe their own propaganda, and the rest who have no idea what to believe in. Maybe the best lack all conviction and the worst are full of passionate intensity?
In reply to Ridge:
Can we stop for a minute with the bullshit ?
What the studies shows is that the (already very marginal) downward pressure on wages in low skill job affect mostly existing migrants. Which is all very logical given that they are more likely to have duplicates skills with new migrants. For the rest it seems to have increased wages of the natives.
I know Theresa May like to repeat these lies about immigration lowering wages, but that's not a reason for doing the same.
Ho you mean, like the home office civil service, and reputable universities ?
> Could you please stop agreeing with me. I'm in agreement with a lot of what you've posted lately, and that's scarier than Trump in the Whitehouse
> Depends on your perspective really. In terms of net economic benefit then obviously migration is a plus. If you're a business owner, have the money to be a serious consumer who uses parastic companies like Amazon, or like the idea of an underclass doing the dirty jobs then it's a plus. If your sole measure of the sucess of a nation is GDP then it's a plus. 'Little' downward pressure on wages is a massive negative for those at the bottom.
Can we stop for a minute with the bullshit ?
What the studies shows is that the (already very marginal) downward pressure on wages in low skill job affect mostly existing migrants. Which is all very logical given that they are more likely to have duplicates skills with new migrants. For the rest it seems to have increased wages of the natives.
I know Theresa May like to repeat these lies about immigration lowering wages, but that's not a reason for doing the same.
> Ditto. Every study is generally produced by a think tank with an agenda.
Ho you mean, like the home office civil service, and reputable universities ?
In reply to RomTheBear:
Unless one has depression, the darkness of that is no fun at all. I tentatively think there might be some truth in the concept of what's called 'depressive realism'. Not too sure I could put into words why though.
Things in New Scientist and similar about the human ability to put a positive gloss when it comes to ourselves (and human nature too a bit) are quite interesting though.
> .Our brains are pre-programmed to think everything will always be fine, but sometimes you just have to fave a hard look at the facts.
Unless one has depression, the darkness of that is no fun at all. I tentatively think there might be some truth in the concept of what's called 'depressive realism'. Not too sure I could put into words why though.
Things in New Scientist and similar about the human ability to put a positive gloss when it comes to ourselves (and human nature too a bit) are quite interesting though.
Post edited at 21:23
In reply to Timmd:
"Why, then, ’tis none to you, for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so."
Shakespear; Hamlet; Act 2, Scene 2.
"Why, then, ’tis none to you, for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so."
Shakespear; Hamlet; Act 2, Scene 2.
1
In reply to Big Ger:
Nice quote.
There's thought a plus side to 'depressive realism' - being a more realistic perspective of one's intelligence and abilities, and reputation amongst others.
I aim to keep a toe hold in the realism (if it exists), while being cheerier too.
Edit: That quote has a lot of truth until you drop something on your toe, I always think.
Nice quote.
There's thought a plus side to 'depressive realism' - being a more realistic perspective of one's intelligence and abilities, and reputation amongst others.
I aim to keep a toe hold in the realism (if it exists), while being cheerier too.
Edit: That quote has a lot of truth until you drop something on your toe, I always think.
Post edited at 22:21
In reply to Timmd:
Another quote for you then mate;
"Early in the film Lawrence of Arabia, Lawrence is sitting in an office drawing maps and talking to his compatriot about the Bedouin attacking the Turks. Another man joins them and Lawrence lights a cigarette, putting the match out with his fingers. The newcomer tries the same trick, but drops the match with a shout of "it hurts." To which Lawrence replies: "The trick, William Potter, is not minding that it hurts."
Another quote for you then mate;
"Early in the film Lawrence of Arabia, Lawrence is sitting in an office drawing maps and talking to his compatriot about the Bedouin attacking the Turks. Another man joins them and Lawrence lights a cigarette, putting the match out with his fingers. The newcomer tries the same trick, but drops the match with a shout of "it hurts." To which Lawrence replies: "The trick, William Potter, is not minding that it hurts."
1
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Wow, not heard that for a while...like 30 years!
> the whole thing will enter a new groove of seriousness.
Wow, not heard that for a while...like 30 years!
In reply to Padraig:
Yeah, that's right. If you leave an expression dormant long enough, it's no longer a cliché and can be used again with fresh force
> Wow, not heard that for a while...like 30 years!
Yeah, that's right. If you leave an expression dormant long enough, it's no longer a cliché and can be used again with fresh force
In reply to Padraig:
Actually, it's not just a new one but a deeper one, so perhaps I should have said something like 'a deeper rut' or 'ravine' of seriousness. ?
Actually, it's not just a new one but a deeper one, so perhaps I should have said something like 'a deeper rut' or 'ravine' of seriousness. ?
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