UKC

Lots of reasons to before North Korea gets even more dangerous. No opposition from Russia after Ukraine and I wouldnt expect much from Trump. Good opportunity to consolidate power. Surely has the means and intel

In reply to kevin stephens:

Although NK apparently has 4,000 kg or so of VX nerve agent. Who knows how many NKs are in China with a bottle here and a bottle there...

In reply to wintertree:
I would suspect the Chinese know the exact whereabouts of each one of those NKs.

In reply to kevin stephens:

China has no interest to invade North Korea, they are probably relatively satisfied with current state. They have a buffer state between them and Americans (present in South Korea) and they don´ t look so bad beside North Korea. As their main sponsor they don´ t need to be afraid of them

In reply to kevin stephens:


Lots of reasons not to invade as well, e.g. worry about a load of missiles dropping on their cities.

In reply to abseil:


Not so, the missiles are still in the development stage. All the more reason for China (maybe even with American and South Korean assistance) to make a preemptive strike before they become a realistic threat to all the world. The situation reminds me of the build up before the Six Day War when Egypt was sabre rattling at Israel. Israel executed a series of brilliantly executed preemptive strikes before the Egyptians realised what was happening and knocked out Egypt's vastly larger air force and army.

In reply to Trangia:
Deterrence or mutually assured destruction*.

If your border city is hit by 100 VX filled artillery shells that would be comparable to a NK nuke taking out a few square kilometers. Can your "brilliantly executed preemptive strike" guarantee not to overlook just one VX armed artillery battery or a single nuclear armed missile?

If facing defeat by then NK might destroy Seoul with VX or nukes provoking a nuclear response from the US. Why would China want that?

The risks and consequences of NK lashing out with nukes or VX are very high so nobody wants to push them into a corner.

Edit
*NK cannot destroy China but they could provoke a regional conflagration.

In reply to elsewhere:

As I said in my previous post the risks and consequences of NK lashing out are not high at present, because they don't yet have the capability, but that situation is changing rapidly. So is doing nothing a sensible strategy, given that NK is becoming an ever increasing threat under the leadership of another pathological narcissist who has already shown that he is quite prepared to murder indiscriminately, including members of his entourage and family , or is a preemptive strike the lesser of two evils?

Easy to rubbish other peoples suggestions, but what do you suggest?

In reply to kevin stephens:

Why would they, being as they have just set up a nice little "secret" pipeline and storage tank facility for gas and apparently another "secret pipeline for oil between them and NK

In reply to Trangia:
>Easy to rubbish other peoples suggestions, but what do you suggest?

Follow the established policies of China, S Korea, Japan & USA - do nothing.

Deterrence works. Even (or particularly) when the nukes & VX are in the hands of a crackpot regime.

Nobody wants to take over the economic wasteland of NK.
Nobody wants to gamble with the population of Seoul which is within missile and maybe artillery range.
Nobody wants to gamble on their intelligence assessment of how a murderous regime facing death or loss of power, nukes & VX will react.

In reply to kevin stephens:

Maybe this whole VX assassination is simply to show the world that they have the substance and are not afraid to use it?

In reply to kevin stephens:

It is already in all but name. The nk elite are totally dependant on China to secretly import their luxury goods and many essentials.

In reply to kevin stephens:
Didn't they effectively take over North Korea during the Korean War when their troops repelled the UN forces?

In reply to Trangia:


aargh, enough about trump.

In reply to kevin stephens:
Everyone is going to be asking “what the hell are you doing?” and you are going to be having a lot of phone calls and meetings between Beijing, Moscow, Tokyo, Seoul, and Washington. I can’t imagine Chinese troops going south across the Yalu without American and South Korean troops crossing the DMZ. Also someone in the CIA is going to get fired, because having China do a sudden attack without anyone knowing in the US that it’s likely to happen would be a very, very bad thing.

The big problem (which is why no one is really thinking of invading North Korea) is to figure out what happens after the war. You are going to have an occupation that makes Iraq look easy.

In reply to wintertree:


I heard a (pre-VX) discussion of why China is so reluctant to take serious action against North Korea and the consensus was that Kim's real secret weapon is the million plus starving refugees he would flood over the border into China.