In reply to Offwidth:
OK I know what you're saying about the stats, but if you're going to counter the claims, can I politely suggest doing some analysis on the numbers and back it up, rather than just saying "ask a statistician". So you said...
> BMC has proportionately a lot more climbers in its membership than hillwalkers and proportionately more outdoor climbers than indoor.
In 2010, BMC membership survey showed that for members, 87% hillwalking was one of their primary activities (top 3), 62% rock climbing, 37% indoor climbing.
Maybe that was representative of participation in 2010, maybe not.
However, 74% of members said that they climbed outdoor, 72% said they climbed indoors. At that point in time BMC membership was 74k. So 54k members climbed outdoor, 53k indoor at all (to what level of participation that was defined I don't know).
This was before a surge in growth of climbing walls etc.
Again, based on the latest SE stats (which you're happy with), in 2016, after a surge in climbing walls and overall total participation increase (regardless of breakdown of rate of increase), participation (twice per month) is at:
1,967,788 hill walking
106,945 outdoor climbing
171,112 indoor climbing
In 2016, 65k people climb indoors twice per month, that don't climb outdoors AT ALL. Also, twice per month, is a better measure of addressable market, in my view. I think it's very reasonable to assume that in 2010 indoor climbing was not at that level of participation, relatively.
Anyhow, let's assume that the segment breakdown within the membership hasn't hugely shifted, and is broadly still the same as it was in 2010. If not, then the question is, from which segment has it lost?
On that basis, BMC hasn't matched participation growth in indoor climbing (and not in only hillwalkers). If the BMC was broadly representative in 2010, it can't be now, or it would have 60% more indoor climbers than outdoor and we could reasonably say it would have more members overall than it does.
Even if you're saying that BMC growth has been directly proportional to participation growth in BMCs main segment (hill-walkers that also climb outdoor, therefore outdoor climbing a good proxy), then still in 2016, the market captured by BMC for those that participate in climbing twice per month, assuming still at 74% of total membership is:
Outdoor climbers = 57%
Indoor climbers = 35% (remember 61% are also outdoor climbers and overlapping)
If what you say is true, given total participation across the whole of the BMC's remit has gone up, then there's been growth in other areas and BMC hasn't reacted to them, yet. I don't think you can say what you've said as a defence of a pro-active strategy.
"The BMC promotes the interests of climbers, hill walkers and mountaineers and the freedom to enjoy their activities."
BMC mission isn't to just promote the interests of those hill-walkers that also climb, (or maybe better to say climbers that also hill-walk, with a small proportion of extra 'only-hillwalkers' too), which is what your argument defends. At the moment they are the most likely segment of all participants to be members, yes, but that's because the offers aren't attractive enough to those that only hill-walk, only indoor climb, or only outdoor climb, and all their overlapping segments.
I'm more than happy to be challenged and/or proven wrong on this. Given that analysis on this is limited so far, and the BMC said this morning to me, "the data doesn’t exist, we've only just started tracking it", it's a valuable debate to have out in the open. If you can, or indeed anyone can, then please properly falsify what I've said, with the figures to back it up.
https://www.thebmc.co.uk/bmc-climbing-wall-users-survey-2010-report
https://www.thebmc.co.uk/bmc-member-survey-2010-results
Post edited at 16:01