In reply to BnB:
> He understands as few can how treasury departments and lenders of last resort around the world are likely to respond to macroeconomic forces.
As would anyone who has studied these things, if he can predict them with certainty then the response must be predetermined based on the inputs and others would be able to do the same. The thing is, as you've said yourself, the response will not necessarily be logical so all he is offering is an opinion. Which brings me on to.......
> Likely better than any financial analyst because who else is better placed to weigh up the political aspects of their decisions?
Well I would say an analyst who's job it is study these things 40-50 hours per week and has done so for years after studying the subject to a high academic level for years. Not someone who is now very part time regardless of high up they may previously have been.
> Often central banks will do the opposite of logical because of the impact of their policies on behaviour. You do understand that investing is about predicting the future, don't you? Not just company profits, but interest rates, government borrowing, bond issues.
You misunderstand, I was talking about the profits of Blackrock. If they are paying out £650k PA for something they'll want a return on their investment. I'd say that return is the ability to get to senior figures in govt and possibly (it's not a given but a gamble worth taking) influence policy. You, on the other hand, see it as GO being uniquely knowledgeable on economics and a soothsayer like ability to predict markets that is not possible from having teams of experts and computer models studying the data. I'm not saying he doesn't have knowledge or insight, I'm saying it's less than is available from other cheaper sources and not what he is being paid for. We'll have to agree to disagree.