UKC

is ignore it, and be worried about global warming...

Three explosions have hit a bus carrying the Borussia Dortmund football team to their home Champions League quarter-final match against Monaco.

In a news conference, the head of Dortmund police said it was a targeted attack on the team.

Player Marc Bartra underwent an operation after breaking a bone in his wrist. No other players were hurt.

The state prosecutor said a letter found near the scene was being examined as part of the investigation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39571776

In reply to Big Ger:

Because a post as flippant as this shows *you* really care. FFS.

In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:


Did you think that the OP was aimed at showing I "really care"?

Or was it highlighting how some here say we should respond to terrorist attacks, in a mildly sarcastic manner?

Not very observant are you?

In reply to Big Ger:

Perhaps what we should do is concentrate a little more on the response and a little less on the event. The multi-ethnic photo of opposing fans sitting down to eat - #bedsforawayfans - that's the result of your terrorism right there. Europe is bigger and better than the terrorists; let's not forget it.

In reply to Big Ger:

The speculation here in Germany is that it may actually be a case of home grow, right wing terrorism, but we will of course have to wait for official statements about the contents (and plausibility) of the supposed letter.

Global warming certainly kills more humans every day than terrorism every year, Syria included.

CB

In reply to Wicamoi:


Very well put.

In reply to cb294:


To what end does this speculation believe the attack was aimed?

In reply to cb294:


'Certainly'? Really? How many people are certainly killed everyday by global warming?

I'm no climate change denier and I have no doubt about the current and future environmental damage and risk to human life but I'm surprised by this assertion.

In reply to Dave Garnett:
In 2015 there were 28328 deaths attributed to terrorism, 35320 injuries, and 12189 kidnappings or hostage takings.

https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2015/257526.htm

A report suggests that there were 400,000 deaths worldwide to climate change each year. (or 1095 per day.)

https://newrepublic.com/article/121032/map-climate-change-kills-more-people...


However these "deaths from global warming" include; diarrhea, cold illnesses, malaria, meningitis, air pollution, indoor smoke, occupational hazards and skin cancer.

In reply to Dave Garnett:

A 2015 report puts a figure of 400,000 deaths annually attributable to global warming - nearly 1100 each day.
(linked from here https://newrepublic.com/article/121032/map-climate-change-kills-more-people...

A different report puts of figure of 28,328 deaths in 2015 resulting from terrorist activities. As far as I can make out, this excludes casualties in Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates 2015 deaths in the Syrian civil war as 55,219.

So, more than four times as many people die as a result of global warming than from terrorist activities and the Syrian civil war.

In reply to tony:

psssttt... the claim was more die per DAY from "global warming," than die a YEAR from terrorism...

In reply to Big Ger:


So, aside from the fact that the numbers simply don't add up, even this ~1000 deaths a day is pretty much a complete guess as to marginally increased death rate arguably attributable to global warming. Even then I'm really not seeing the link with indoor smoke and skin cancer.

As I say, I'm totally on board with the urgent need to minimise global warming but mis-stating the case only gives ammunition to climate change deniers.

In reply to Dave Garnett:


If you look at the executive summary of the report I linked to above, you'll see that the deaths attributable to things like indoor smoke, skin cancer, diarrheal infections and so on are in addition to the estimated 400,000 deaths attributable to global warming. Taking into consideration all deaths resulting from our current carbon-intensive energy use gives an estimate of 4.9 million deaths in 2010.

The 400k deaths estimate is attributed mainly to hunger and communicable diseases, particularly affecting children.

In reply to Big Ger:

Sorry, my mistake. I meant per month, so roughly a factor of ten as a first estimate. My point is that climate change is IMO by far the bigger challenge.

Anyway, it is not really worth debating the precise ratio of deaths by either cause, as it will very much depend on what you include on either side. Do you include death sby diseases that may have expanded their range due to climate change, or does civil war count in the terrorism side?

Even worse, where do you tally deaths by terror in ethnic conflicts driven by climate change? In both Syria and South Sudan climate change certainly seems to be one of the key drivers of conflict (together with geopolitics, racial, religious, economic, psychological, etc. reasons).

In any case, the newest speculation here is that the bomb attack may have links with some kind of blackmail plot, possibly by organized crime, rather than with political/religious terrorism.

Back to work,

CB

In reply to cb294:

It may be a bigger challenge, but its rather irrelevant when a bomb goes off under your bus.


Funny, the Beeb is saying this;

"German police are investigating a possible Islamic extremist link to the bombing of the Borussia Dortmund football team's bus, German media say. A letter found near the scene cites the Berlin Christmas market attack and military operations in Syria. It is not yet clear if the letter is genuine. Meanwhile, German federal prosecutors, who normally lead investigations related to terrrorism, are taking over the probe. German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung said the letter, beginning with the phrase "in the name of Allah", mentioned Germany's use of Tornado jets in the coalition forces fighting so-called Islamic State (IS).

In reply to tony:

Or maybe all the causes get interlinked and are hard to pull apart fairly. When does terrorism become civil war for instance? Or how much do natural cycles like La Nina add to a general warming?

In the meantime due to insurgencies and drought I strongly suspect a lot more east africans will die this year than will die in the war in Syria and I guess that means its rather odd that its very rarely on mainstream news.

http://www.africanews.com/2017/03/17/depth-of-the-worst-drought-since-1945-...

In reply to Offwidth:


There's certainly a degree of linkage, and as you say, they're hard to disentangle. For example, the conflict in Darfur was considered by some of be a result of climate change, with traditional agricultural practices being disrupted, leading to mass migrations, which created conflict across the region. Similar migrations are going to be one of the major consequences of climate change, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, and it's likely this will lead to further conflict.

In reply to Big Ger:

Yes, but apparently the police are not really convinced that this letter is genuine. Apparently they found a second one, where the attack is justified by Borussia Dortmund not doing enough against the fascist groups amongst their South Stand ultras. Both letters supposedly (the full text has been seen but not fully revelaled by Spiegel, Sueedeutsche, and several other news outlets) are so full of jargon and buzzwords but contain implausible details that they apparently look more like fakes rather than genuine admissions of responsibility.

It may well be that it was some spectacularly incompetent islamist bomb attack, but at the moment this is only one option, and not the most likely one at that.

CB

In reply to cb294:


So the police believe it was a right wing group or "organised crime" who tried to blow up a bus of soccer players, as Borussia Dortmund were not doing enough against the fascist groups amongst their South Stand ultras?

GT.

In reply to Big Ger:
No, they appear to believe (again, all based on the little that is reported so far) that neither the islamist not the supposed anti-fascist letter look convincing.

One of the letters supposedly references Allah the almighty and demands an end of what little German contribution there is in Syria, plus a closure of the US airbase in Ramstein, and the other uses gender neutral pronouns to describe the fans and contains the expected antifa buzzwords, but overall both letters apparently look more like cartoon versions of Autonomer Block/Rote Armee Fraktion or IS/AQ letters of responsibility.

At the moment, the likelihood that both are false flags aimed at masking the true motives is therefore rather higher than either one being genuine.

Let´ s see what comes out of the investigations in the end, but at the moment the bombing does not look like a proper terrorist attack on a football event as in Paris. It has even been speculated that the bombs were not designed to kill (e.g. no shrapnel enhancing coating of nails etc.), but who knows. Again supposedly, a fourth, dud device has been found, which would of course help the technical investigation.

CB

edit: forgot to add, there have been ongoing rumours that BVB have for some time been the target of blackmail attempts (hence the speculation about a link to organized crime), even though the police spokesman this morning claimed not to be aware of that. Alternatively, the right wing fan groups which have indeed expanded their influence, especially in the famous south stand have recently (finally!) been targeted by the club following riots in games against Leipzig and Darmstadt, hence the speculations about a right wing background.

In reply to Big Ger:
You are conflating the three different theories for how organised crime, right wing and left might be involved.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39575503 for the right/left and other aspects such attempts to mislead.

In reply to Big Ger:


Presumably to get people like you prematurely frothing about muslims being a threat.
jk

In reply to Big Ger:

Why should there be a choice between being bothered about global warming and terrorism?

In reply to Big Ger:
Sounds like virtue-less signalling to me

Like your statistics post by the way

In reply to tony:


Although if we turned off our carbon intense energy use I imaging we'd see a lot more deaths as the global population plunged back to a level not seen in 200 years, that being what was sustainable without the energy.

You have to ask how many lives exist only because of it as well as how many it claims early. There's no "right" way to look at the numbers but there's no harm in taking a hollisic persepecitve.

In reply to Big Ger:


Why mention climate change?

The US intelligence has commented that climate change is as much as a threat as terrorism is, due to the social unrest and conflict over resources which may stem from it.

In reply to Big Ger:

Latest development, one arrest in the islamist scene. So who knows....

CB

In reply to cb294:


So, I think we can now discount your "right wing fascist groups" and "organised crime" aplogetics, can we?

"Earlier, a spokeswoman for Germany's federal prosecutor, Frauke Koehler, said: "Two suspects from the Islamist spectrum have become the focus of our investigation. Both of their apartments were searched, and one of the two has been detained.""

In reply to Timmd:


Because in other discussions people diminished the effects of terrorist attacks, while saying that global warming is more of a threat.

In reply to Timmd:


Don't ask me, ask those apologists who raise global warming in threads about terrorist attacks.

In reply to elsewhere:


Not me mate, cb294 introduced the idea that these were not Islamist attacks, but "the word" was that fascist groups or organised crime were behind them.

In reply to Big Ger:

It probably is, you know, to do with the future of humanity and general well being, and as a cause of unrest and population displacement. It's close to being a cause of terrorism, according to some US intelligence people.

In reply to Timmd:


But cycling to work, rather than taking a car isn't going to stop ISIS from killing people, is it?

In reply to Big Ger: that's the worst argument I've seen in a long time. You'll need to do better than that to troll effectively

In reply to Big Ger:

He may have introduced the various theories current at that time but you chose to combine a right wing or organied crime attack with motivation for a left wing attack.

In reply to Big Ger:

Emotionally speaking: no.
Rationally speaking: yes.
Pragmatically speaking: dedicate a bit of ressources to tackle terrorism but dedicate a lot more to global warming.
Personally speaking: you're full of shite.

In reply to wbo:

Which one? Funny isn't it that I've presented a coherent and polite argument through out and yet you still make this baseless accusation of "trolling". Projection much.

In reply to elsewhere:



I mentioned the two theories, but put them in sets of quotes, so as to ensure that they were not combined.

In reply to RomTheBear:

You speak as if "resources" were sweets to be doled out in measured amounts.

How does one guestimate the number more sweets that "global warming" gets, over the number that "terrorism" gets?


Personally speaking? I'm heartbroken I tell you, heartbroken. I've always considered you the font of all knowledge and truth. Honest.

In reply to Big Ger:
>So the police believe it was a right wing group or "organised crime" who tried to blow up a bus of soccer players, as Borussia Dortmund were not doing enough against the fascist groups amongst their South Stand ultras?


No you didn't. You mentioned two theories combined with the motivation from a third.

In reply to Big Ger:

Yes, they are under investigation. I have heard the announcement by the federal prosecutor's office in full, you could not avoid it on the radio...

It appears, though, that the arrest was for stuff found in one of the flats, not necessarily (yet) due to a link with the current attack. The spokeswoman very carefully avoided such a connection.

According to what else has come out, noone appears to know what to make of the letters, and they have even asked for islam scholars to make sense of it. First, the IS does not normally leave letters at all. Second, the letter uses words in German, e.g. for the "caliphate" that in all IS propaganda distributed in Germany are normally left in transcribed Arabic, which is what you would expect a German convert and an Iraqi IS sympathizer to stick with. Third, the IS is looking for the endgame in their war against the infidels, what point then in demanding the closure of US air bases in Germany and the withdrawal of German reconnaissance aircraft from Turkey? There are a bunch of other, e.g. theological/religious inconsistencies that make it very doubtful whether the letters were written by actual islamists.

Add to this that the BVB chairman Aki Watzke is/was under credible death threats from right wing fan groups since a few weeks (that led to an offer of 24h police protection, not something offered lightly in Germany), and it makes sense to not jump to premature conclusions.

It may well turn out that the whole thing was the work of IS wannabees, but at the moment we just do not know.

CB

In reply to cb294:


True, but distinguishing the "wannabe" from the "real thing" is hard isn't it?

When does the "wannabe" become the "is"?

In reply to Big Ger:

I agree. However, unsubstantiated reports suggest that one of the suspects was searched because he owns a gift umbrella of the team hotel, while the other was apparently informed by someone on the phone a while ago that "the device was ready", so the actual evidence is, at least for the former, still much too weak to discount a non-islamist motive.

Let's just be careful with the conclusions for a while.

CB

In reply to cb294:


Oh I don't know, I'm happy to give people here a big stick to beat me with, and my jumping to conclusions is a fine way of achieving that!

In reply to Big Ger:
Worth a read.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/apr/13/who-are-the-new-jihadis

In reply to elsewhere:

Very interesting read, my thanks.

At the same time, it is obvious that the radicals’ decision to identify with jihad and to claim affiliation with a radical Islamic group is not merely an opportunistic choice: the reference to Islam makes all the difference between jihad and the other forms of violence that young people indulge in. Pointing out this pervasive culture of violence does not amount to “exonerating” Islam. The fact that these young people choose Islam as a framework for thought and action is fundamental, and it is precisely the Islamisation of radicalism that we must strive to understand.

In reply to Big Ger:
I was struck by the words fringe and delusional.

"But, unlike the major secular ideologies of the 20th century, jihadism has a very narrow social and political base. As we have seen, it does not mobilise the masses, and only draws in those on the fringe."

"But the reality is that Isis’s pretension to establish a global caliphate is a delusion – that is why it draws in violent youngsters who have delusions of grandeur."

In reply to Big Ger:

If I were on the bus I wouldn't be thinking about Global warming but along with all the other things that keep me awake at night Global warming looms pretty large. Nothing could convince my dad that cigarettes weren't good for him, but they shortened his life (along with the coal dust). Climate change denial is like tobacco defence; it goes against science, seemingly just for the sake of it.

In reply to Big Ger:


I presume you're referring to me and, as usual, deliberately misrepresenting my position. The severity of other threats we face does not diminish the impact terrorism has on those touched by it. However, our disproportionate reaction as a society does us no favours, we utterly misunderstand the risk posed by the various hazards we face, terror and climate change included. As a result we inappropriately allocate finite time, energy and resources making the situation worse than it could be resulting in excess preventable deaths far in excess of those caused by the eye catching threats.

It's not even a binary thing, these challenges are interrelated. Climate change will (if it hasn't already in the case of Syrian drought) become a driver for rapid socioeconomic change, conflict over resources and ultimately, more insecurity and terror as powerless people are driven toward a very limited tool set with which they can gain attention.
jk

In reply to Pete Pozman:


I wouldn't let it keep you awake at night if I were you. Not worth losing sleep over.

In reply to jkarran:

What would you say, apart from journalistic excess, shows "our" disproportionate response?



So climate change justifies terrorism.

In reply to elsewhere:


It gives them a focus, and a"cause".

In reply to Big Ger:


The relative amount of time we spend talking about them. The relative amount of time our legislators spend talking about them and legislating. The funding we dedicate to them.


Don't be such a dick.
jk

In reply to Big Ger:


Not very observant are you?

Nor you in reality, or maybe you have trouble reading.

I don't think anyone was advocating not reporting attacks whether terrorist or otherwise.

What I read was people don't like blanket coverage for days on end, with no NEW news to report and/or days of wild speculation about who or why.

On top of that, repeating know false statements in the news over and over again.

The head of BBC news was on the radio, and admitted they had no proof of any terrorist link and maybe should have waited for this to be confirmed, then went on to use the word terrorist in the same interview!!

I like my news a bit more facty and truthy, you obviously don't care.

And from the tone of the OP it shows you don't care.

In reply to jkarran:


So should we cut the funding spent on counter terrorism measures?

In reply to krikoman:



***Yawn****


Roadrunner5 - on 15:04 Sun
In reply to David Martin:
The greatest response is just ignore them.
The press are playing right into their hands.. and so are many on here.




So, how long should the running down and killing of innocent people, and the stabbing to death of police officers, be reported for? Should we forget about the German coach bombing already?



Oh I care, just not in the way you do.

In reply to Big Ger:


You're right.

In reply to Big Ger:


Do you have children? Do you wonder what state we leave the earth in for them?

CB

In reply to Big Ger:


It is if you're Bangladeshi. Closer to home for you perhaps it is if you make your living on the great barrier reef. It is if you're a subsistence farmer watching your crops fail again and your children starve. It is if persistent drought killed all your livestock. It is if several successive years of '100 year' flooding inundated your town with mud yet again killing scores. It is if you live on a low lying atoll. It is if it brings with it Malaria. It is if our plants go unpollinated. It is if your neighboring country is damming your water supply in response...

It is if you want your children and grandchildren to inherit a viable home not stalked by war and famine.
jk

In reply to jkarran:


Yep, not worth losing sleep over, what does that achieve?

In reply to cb294:


A daughter, (22.) I think our generation has done wonders in creating the best possible world for them. The legacy of industrialisation, and increased mobility, has come at a cost though, one which is being worked on, by our and her generations.

In reply to Big Ger:


Being entirely rational and assuming we were willing to pay no more in total... yes.

Personally I'd argue for new/increased spending on our energy and pollution problems. I think we get policing about right.
jk

In reply to jkarran:

Fair play to you. Few are willing to make such declarative statements.

Not that I agree with you, as you can imagine, but still.

In reply to Big Ger:

Mine's 24 and I wonder why, having "done wonders", our generation has, suddenly, decided to smash them all up. Is it that we resent the fact that we are all going to be dead quite soon?

In reply to Big Ger:

I have three kids (two girls, 21 and 19, an a boy, 14). I would like to be able to look them in the face in, say, 35 or 40 years, provide I live that long, and can account for what I did personally to mitigate climate change after it became undeniable fact.
The lifestyle our generation, and especially of our parents, is wholly unsustainable. Our children will have to pay the price, but not in my name, as far as I can do anything about it.
Yes, green ideas that were ridiculed 30 years ago have become mainstream, but still we are destroying our world at a rate that there will not be much left to "work on", as you say. The large scale destruction of the Great Barrier Reef is just one example. I would love to see it one day, but flying half way around the world to do so would be more than cynical.

CB

In reply to Big Ger:

Essentially it is, there is a finite amount of human time and physical ressources we can allocate to various things. How we spend it is a matter of choice.


And indeed you should, Big Jerk, indeed you should.

In reply to cb294:

I admire your efforts to mitigate your impact, and your willingness to take responsibility.

Does anyone remember when "acid rain" was the "global warming" of the 70's? When the next generation were all going to die horribly as acid rain was killing off all the forests that we rely on for oxygen, and we'd soon die gasping for air.


https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/image48.png

In reply to Pete Pozman:


I don't think we decided to "smash them all up", it's just that the consequences of our attempts to improve our lives were not foreseen.

In reply to Big Ger:


It works both ways. The war on terror is the right's equivalent of the left's war on CO2. They have the same roots - misguided applications of the precautionary principle (although I'm not convinced there's such a thing as a non-misguided application). Both are ineffective at best, and seem to have made things considerably worse.

In reply to stu7jokes:


How do you qauntify that?

Taking these figures at face value, the lives saved could number in the dozens.

The Metropolitan Police officer told the Press Association that since June 2013, police and intelligence agencies have disrupted 13 terrorist attack plots. The figure is one higher than the last tally given in October. Information from members of the public has contributed to stopping some of those attacks, while figures show it has assisted counter-terrorism police in a third of the most high-risk investigations.

Read more at: http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/crime/security-forces-foiled-13-potenti...

In reply to Big Ger:

Have you ever been climbing in the Elbe sandstone? If you have the opportunity, take a little detour to the Erzgebirge (or any of the other border ranges further east, e.g. the Estergebirge, Sudetes, etc.). You will find areas dozens in km of length, and extending several km dowm from the ridge line where ALL trees have died due to acid rain during the 1980s.

Similar damage, just less severe, could at the time be observed in about 70% of all forests in Germany, with hardly any individual trees not affected.

Tree health has since recovered, and even the areas in the Erzgebirge are slowly recovering (square km areas covered with 20 YO trees really look weird!), due to sulfur extraction from the coal fired power plant exhausts (and, to a lesser extent, sulfur removal from car fuel).

Acid rain was no joke or myth, and the worst consequences were avoided in the West just in time, but somewhat too late in East Germany and the Czech Republic (who upgraded their power plants after Germany paid for the extraction systems).

This action was the first, great success of the Green movement in Germany. Sulfur removal was ridiculed and declared unnecessary and technically impossible at the time, but is now mainstream politics and technical state of the art. For some reason, though, the foresight and tenacity of the early environmentalists is still ridiculed.

I hope that we will in a few decades be able to look back on climate change and conclude that we just got away with a black eye. I am not too optimistic, though, the problem is much bigger. CO2 is less easily removed than SO2/3, any remedial action will thus be costly and involve changes in lifestyle, and the consequences of failure are much worse and potentially more permanent and irreversible.

CB

In reply to cb294:


This is what I was saying, at the time it seemed like a catastrophic problem which would lead to the extinction of life on earth, yet here we are decades alter, facing up to and addressing the next challenge.

In reply to cb294:



Hey mate, you may have been right all along!


Investigators in Germany say there is "significant doubt" that Tuesday's attack on the Borussia Dortmund team bus was the work of radical Islamists. They say letters found at the scene may be an attempt to trick people into thinking there was an Islamist motive. But they said it may have been the work of political extremists - from the left or right - or violent football fans.

In reply to Big Ger:

Well, quite. Unless I'm missing layers of irony.

In reply to Big Ger:
And so was Jkarran at 12:00 on wednesday

In reply to Big Ger:

A couple of days ago they have arrested a guy who had booked a room in the team hotel for both possible match days, asking for a room with a view of the parking lot (!!!), and who had used the hotel wlan to take out a consumer credit, which he then used to buy put options on BVB stocks via the same network. Apparently some guy in the bank selling the options made the connection and tipped off the police. Forensic evidence appears to be consistent with the same guy planting the bombs.

Apparently his plan was to cash in on dropping BVB stock prices after the majority of the team was killed. I have tried to keep an open mind about possible motives, but I would not have guessed that in a million years.

Completely bizarre, you would get laughed out of the room if you suggested this as a movie plot!


CB

In reply to cb294:

Agreed my friend, that is truly the stuff of cheap novels!

In reply to Big Ger:


But it won't stop you jumping on the terrorist band-wagon next time, will it?

In reply to krikoman:


Depends on the evidence available.

In reply to Big Ger:

And if there is no evidence, just make stuff up?

https://www.ukclimbing.com/forums/t.php?n=661808

In reply to krikoman:

What are you implying is "made up" in that thread?