UKC

Assuming the General Election happens on 8th June, what do you think will happen locally.

My MP (Liz McInnes (LAB), Heywood & Middleton) is defending a 5,000 majority against UKIP. She was a remain supporter, in a leave constituency, but my feeling is that she will retain her seat.

The neighbouring constituency is very interesting. (Simon Danczuk (IND), Rochdale) He is currently suspended from the Labour Party, he is arguably a unifying figure, they all hate him. He won't be the Labour candidate, but I think he might stand as an independent, or possibly UKIP. I suspect he over-estimates his personal support, could open a door for the Lib Dems. Rochdale is a traditional Lib Dem stronghold, but it's recent history in the town has been pretty toxic.

In reply to The New NickB:

Looking back at the polls from recent elections and referendums I'm expecting the exact opposite of what the polls say.

Therefore I'm looking forward to Corbyn taking a landslide victory after dominating England, the SNP loosing all their seats to the tories and Plaid Cymru announcing Welsh independence by mid August.

In reply to The New NickB:

My MP Patrick McLoughlin (Conservative) for the Derbyshire Dales is also Chairman of the Conservative Party and has a majority of 14,000 so a safe seat at any time. This time around, I would be surprised if the majority didn't increase.

In reply to The New NickB:

My MP is Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, SNP. The seat was previously held by Labour, but they've pretty much disappeared from view locally, and given the size of the incumbent's majority, it's unlikely we'll have anything other than SNP again.

In reply to Greasy Prusiks:

But the polls have over-estimated labour support. In 2015 they had the tories and labour even and they lost conclusively so its looking bad with a 21 point gap.

In reply to The New NickB:

I think Colne Valley will be a Con Hold for Jason Macartney

In reply to The New NickB:

Labour hold for me I think for Jeff Smith in Manchester Withington. 14K (~30%) majority, Labour whip but voted against Article 50 which will stand him in good stead. He has been critical of Corbyn so not sure how well that will play but it's a long way back for John Leech if he is the Lib Dem candidate.

In reply to The New NickB:

York Central's Rachael Maskell will presumably be defending a traditionally safe (14%pt lead over Conservatives) seat for Labour. IMO she's been good and visible since entering parliament in 2015 and taking front bench roles. She's pro-remain in a pro-remain seat and has been loyal to Corbyn until recently when she resigned to oppose various bits of brexit legislation. UKIP, Greens, LibDem's were almost equal 3rd, well out of contention last time round.

As usual, many will be set in their ways voting as they ever have and that might be enough but I'm not convinced most floating voters or those seeking change will look to see a good constituency MP but rather newspaper headlines about leaders and party-centric publicity. I suspect she'll be in for a tough fight and I fear quite possibly a loss to the Conservatives if the LibDem's clearly stand against brexit as I expect they will, they've done very well in York in the recent past. It's a big university town and the election is in term time so who knows how that will play for the LibDem's this time around... I suspect that's a support base they've lost not to see again soon.
jk

In reply to The New NickB:

Our constituency would be regarded as a Conservative stronghold with a lrage makjority for our current MP. I'd guess that he will see his majority reduced due to his stance on Brexit.

However, no other party has bothered to field a credible strong candidate or campaign properly since I first voted over 30 years ago so I'd say his seat is safe.

I won't be considering voting for anyone else if they follow their usual pattern of apathy in the run up to the election.

In reply to The New NickB:
South East Cornwall. Sheryll Murray, Conservative, Leave supporter.

The seat has been Tory for a long time, safe from Labour, but Libs have held it in the past. Labour's campaigning in 2015 was notable by its absence - Their candidate couldn't attend hustings because he had A Level the next day - and I'm not hopeful they'll do well this time either.

Possible opportunity for Lib to grab the Remain voters, but I'm not holding my breath. They have my vote, but I'm predicting Murray will increase her majority.

In reply to The New NickB:

Biggest Constituency Labour Party in the country here in Bristol West, but it'll probably be close between Lib Dem, Green and Labour. Encumbant Labour MP is the wonderfully named Thangam Debbonaire who I'm a fan of but she has publicly criticised his holiness JC so we'll see how that plays out.

In reply to paul_in_cumbria:

Been trying for the last 30 years to get him out

In reply to knthrak1982:

I remember getting the labour leaflet and thinking, you've got to be joking, what life experience or any experience has this guy got. Then I felt bad and though maybe a bit of youthful energy and passion is what is needed, then I thought he just looks like another young William Hague but a labour version.

Cheers

Toby

In reply to The New NickB:

Bristol West, Thangam Debbonaire had a 5,000 majority over the Green candidate, and a further 5,000 over the Lib Dem. I suspect she will comfortably hold it, possibly with an increased majority since she voted against triggering Article 50. The Lib Dems will probably make some headway.

Thank god the Tories don't have a butterfly's chance in a hurricane of winning this seat. With that assurance, I may vote Lib Dem so I can vote for a party that opposes Brexit.

In reply to The New NickB:

Swindon North. Justin Tomlinson (C). Big vote for brexit so I assume he gets a bigger majority (used to be a marginal 10 years ago). I suspect the Conservatives nationwide will win a lot of votes back from UKIP.

In reply to Toby_W:

Yeah i felt bad too. I asked him some questions on Facebook and he was quick to reply, good answers, and by all accounts a pleasant chap. I just couldn't take the party seriously when they fielded someone so inexperienced.

In reply to The New NickB:

Craig Mackinley (conservative) just beat off Nigel Farage last time.

I expect Nigel to return to fight. Craig is embroiled in expenses case and his head office boy is charged with rape.

Labour is low, and libdems non existent.

Local council is ukip, but local newspaper is rather negative about them... As always the local council get a poor rap. Some of their own doing, since because like all councils they are essentially broke.

I predict a squeaky conservative win, with ukip second, but losing as they have what they wanted.

We have county council elections soon as well...

In reply to The New NickB:

Derby North Constituency, given that the MP has a majority of 41 anything could happen, the area voted Leave but not by a massive margin, I'd imagine now that the Vote Leave lies are becoming apparent it'll swing back to Labour.

In reply to The New NickB:

South Cambs will stick with Heidi Allen (Conservative) who was a remainer by inclination and is a reasonably active local MP. My vote will go to the yellow corner.

In reply to The New NickB:
Rushcliffe - I think ken Clarke will stand down but the Tories will still win.
We have a local election the month before. I think if you want the Tories out, then everyone should vote for whoever comes second in the local election.

In reply to The New NickB:
Chester - Chris Matheson (Labour) newly elected in 2015 with a majority of 93. Chester has been a swing seat for a lot of years and he only won because the Tory lad was an absolute plank.

Has been low profile locally and a known Corbyn supporter - he's toast!

My prediction Chester back to Conservatives

In reply to Red Rover:

It was a joke really but you are right.

It'll be interesting to see how close the polls get. I've always thought the tory vote is understated because people are reluctant to tell pollsters they're voting for the nasty party. Perhaps people will be reluctant to say they're voting for Corbyn, who knows?

In reply to The New NickB:

Islington North - Jeremy Corbyn, lukewarm Remainer. I expect he will get re-elected but with a reduced majority.

In reply to spenser:


I hope you are right but am more inclined to think that the Corbyn effect will just lead to Labour losing lots of votes and the Cons actually getting a more significant majority. I also think the performance of our Council will have damaged the Labour party locally - it's all been a blame-game for them recently and the leadership appear more bothered about their own ambitions than their city.

In reply to Si dH:
I haven't really looked at what the council is doing I'll admit.

In reply to Shapeshifter:

Shame - nice guy. He came and supported our parkrun. Very genuine.

In reply to The New NickB:

I live in Rotherham, right on a constituency boundary. The town is labour controlled (with a big C) with a labour council. Whatever they have done wrong in the past re hiding the CSE problem seems to make no difference. It doesn't really matter who labour field, whether Jeremy is leading, or what the policies are, they will win with a big majority. UKIP will disappear this time round, as the protest vote had it's chance and failed miserably. The Lib Dems hide! The conservatives keep trying but know it is a hopeless case. Round here people vote for a party they can spell! (just)

In reply to The New NickB:

South Wales Valleys, Torfaen.
If a sheep was selected as the Labour candidate, it would win.
Lots of dissatisfaction with the Welsh Assembly pantomime, but even that won’t change things here.

In reply to Removed User:


Looking at the votes at the last election, it'll be a long wait.
Actually as a constituency MP, he's always shown up for enterprise/innovation/small business events when he's been invited. Seems really supportive of this activity and spends a lot of time with SME owners, can't really comment on other stuff.

In reply to The New NickB:

Gary Glitter runs for the Tories here and gets elected with a slightly reduced majority.

In reply to The New NickB:

I'm North Herefordshire, and I can pretty much guarantee it'll continue be a very safe Tory seat. I'll be voting Labour, but I seriously doubt any of my neighbours will.

In reply to The New NickB:
I'm in Ceredigion, which was scheduled to no longer be a constituency in 2020 (merged with North Pembroke) but I guess it gets one last round in a general election. Currently one of the rare LD MPs, and whilst not my first choice by a long way has done a decent job IMO. Has a majority of about 8% (3,000 votes) from Plaid and will probably stay, although there is talk of us returning a Plaid Council in May (as this will be gains from Independents). I'd like to vote Green, but appreciate that it's a waste of time here, and traditionally would probably be seen as a Labour voter. However, I will be putting my cross in the Plaid box as I'd prefer them to the Lib Dems, and both do nowt in Westminster except fill seats anyway.

In reply to The New NickB:

I live in Kendal and my mp is Tim Farron. I suspect he will keep his seat with a similar majority.

In reply to The New NickB:
My MP (Labour) is defending a 28,000 vote majority over UKIP who came second in the 2015 election.

In the 2010 election Labour had a 21,000 vote majority over the Lib Dems however the Lib Dems lost about 3000 votes in 2015 coming behind UKIP, Conservatives and the Greens. The Conservatives in recent elections seem to have a steady 3000/4000 votes but when Labour are attracting 25,000 - 35,000 votes it is hard to see past another Labour victory as would need to swing back to about 1935 to find a Conservative win in this constituency.

In reply to The New NickB:

If I was to give advice to a Labour MP I would say vote against any snap election, and hope the 2/3 majority requirement will save their job for a couple of years at least, and buy some time to find another source of income( they will need it)

In reply to Alan M:


But if this is to be a Brexit election, there will ( apparently) be a huge Lib Dem remainer vote , particularly all the youngsters who are so pro EU ( but forgot to vote)

In reply to Jim C:

Can't see it here the demographics ensure a Labour win with Conservatives and Lib Dems generally fighting for second. I expect UKIP to lose votes in this election probably to the Conservatives.

Just had a quick look at the stats the Lib Dems best performance in modern times around here was 2010 with 6000 votes dropping to under 1000 in 2015. The next best performance was in 1992 with 3300 votes coming in 3rd behind the Conservatives who got over 8000 and Labour with more than 37,000 votes.

In reply to The New NickB:
St Ives and Penzance; Andrew George (LD) to regain it from Derek Thomas (Con.)

2015 result;

Derek Thomas Conservative 18,491
Andrew George Liberal Democrat 16,022


Oh, if you want an example of extreme optimism, Mebyon Kernow stood a guy against these two last election, Rob Simmons, who had previously failed to get elected to a seat on Penzance town council.

Rob Simmons Mebyon Kernow 518

In reply to Jim C:

Are the Lib Dems proposing to reverse Brexit? If so, 48% of votes is more than most political parties get power with. I see Farron's just shot himself in the foot by saying that we are all sinners when asked if gay sex was a sin. Oh dear.

In reply to The New NickB:

Weston Super Mare - John Penrose (con) 15k majority at the last election - but that was mostly the Lib Dem vote collapsing. However strong Brexit area so I doubt if the Lib Dem team will come roaring back.

Overall will be interesting to see how the Lib Dem's do in the south west - they took a real drubbing last time around in what was one of their heartlands, and outwith the cities its a brexit supporting region - has little Timmy got what it takes?

In reply to Yanis Nayu:

That was painful viewing

In reply to Alan M:


From what I'm hearing from the Lib Dems, this will not be just an election, it will be a re- run of the EU Referendum.

So IF they are right, you should be looking at the constituency referendum results , and not go on previous election results .
(if it was to remain then they hope that the remainers will vote tactically as anti Brexit, and vote Lib Dem.)

It's a reasonable argument I suppose, but as I'm not a remainer, I can't guess if it is likely.

In reply to The New NickB:
Brexit enthusiasts in Stafford are back to saying things like "they're all the same", " nothing changes" etc and that guy in Barnsley market is going to be wondering why all the brown people are still here. I think the Referendum was their big punt and they won't be going outside on polling day. There could be some big surprises if the disaffected young and the angst ridden Remainers get their act together. May has done a very good job of burying UKIP, by stealing all their policies. The nutcases are finished.

In reply to The New NickB:
Orkney & Shetland - you could field a corpse as Lib Dem candidate and they'd be elected.

Don't know who our candidate will be as our incumbent has said in the recent past that he won't be standing again. However he has form as a lying toe-rag, he's not that old and the election is sooner than expected, so I'm not anticipating a new candidate.

In reply to The New NickB:

David Mundell. Only Tory MP in Scotland. Slim majority of 798 at last election. Rural constituency.


There's a lot of pissed off farmers after the way Brexit vote went....could we see the outcome where there are no Tory MP's in Scotland after this election? Maybe...

In reply to Yanis Nayu:


I don't think the Lib Dems are aiming to reverse Brexit , but just to soften it.
Ironically that is ,apparently, the same reason that May is going for a mandate, so that she is not so reliant on the Brexiteers in her party who will force a ' harder' Brexit, and she will then hopefully have a more comfortable majority, and in doing so, thinks that she will also strengthen her negotiating position and get a 'better deal' from the EU.

So if you want the UK to get a 'good deal' , and still hope for access to the single market (even though we cannot accept free movement) then the Tories say vote for them.

If you just want to still be in the single market, and don't care about ( or prefer to have) free movement to get access, then vote Lib Dem, and they will put pressure on the Tories to back pedal on that (if they get a big vote.)
But, until we get to see each of their manifestos , it is difficult to be sure of their tactics.

The SNP, have most of the Scottish seats already, so they will probably lose some this time round, as I think they have miscalculated the support for a new independence referendum. I think they will lose around 5 or 6 seats.

I have no clue why anyone would vote Labour.

In reply to The New NickB:

Our MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington is Diane Abbott. I expect her to win.

In reply to The New NickB:

My MP, Steven Paterson (SNP) will probably be re-elected.

It's Stirling, though, so the Tories can't be written off completely.

In the meantime, we have the local elections (4th May). They'll be sidelined now, of course.

The Tories have decided to field the former chairman of UKIP Scotland as their council candidate in my local ward!

(no, really: http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15134396.Former_Ukip_chair_defects_to_To... )

In reply to Jim C:


It'll be interesting to see what turns up in their manifesto on this...

In reply to The New NickB:

Spare a thought for the good folk of Clacton who will have the enviable choice of Douglas Carswell and Arron Banks amongst others. My immediate thought is too rude to post.

In reply to The New NickB:

Eric Pickles since 1992, think he's safe

In reply to The New NickB:

Shipley - Philip Davies, Tory, majority of 9624 from Labour in 2015. UKIP were third.

I expect the odious prick will retain his seat as everyone else has given up on contesting it. Labour's candidate in 2015 was a complete no-hoper who could barely speak never mind form a coherent argument. Neither the Lib Dem nor UKIP candidate turned up at the hustings I attended. The candidates that I took a shine to were Darren Hill (Yorkshire Party) and Kevin Warnes (Green). Despite normally being a Lib Dem, I campaigned and voted for Hill as I had a bee in my bonnet about devolution within England and was annoyed with the choice of Lib Dem candidate.

Warnes is a sitting Bradford Councilor and I expect he will stand again. Hill has buggered off back to Labour, but he won't be their candidate. I might vote for him if he was. I'll probably vote Lib Dem, unless annoyed by candidate selection again.

I'm going to be out of the country, but I've already applied for my vote to be wielded by a proxy.

In reply to hokkyokusei:

I sincerely hope Davies or his supporters don't turn up on my doorstep for their sakes.

In reply to lummox:


I sincerely hope they do

In reply to The New NickB:

Danczuk has stated that if Labour don't select him (I can't see how they can and they won't want to), he will stand as an independent. I will be interested to see who the Labour candidate will be, I can't see it being any of the local councillors.

In reply to The New NickB:

Workington.

Fairly solid Labour, although Con won the by election in 1976.

Labours share has been dropping steadily:

1997 Lab 31,717 (19,656 majority)
2015 Lab 16,268 (4,686 majority)

UKIP took nearly 20% of the vote in 2015, and the Lib Dems were efectively wiped out.

Could go either Con or Labour. Labour MP (Sue Hayman) seems fairly ineffective, so may even flip to a conservative win.

In reply to Jim C:



A further thought on this... I think what you say is sensible, but how on Earth would she clearly communicate this to voters?

In reply to The New NickB: it's interesting that this is the last election of the current constituencies (I think). Given these changes will likely favour the tories, I was half expecting this election to happen later.

In reply to Trevers:

Exactly my thoughts.

Given her earlier statements about remaining being the best option this could be a ray of hope.

However, if not, and she persues the hardest possible brexit and uses the opportunity of a clear tory majority to totally screw the NHS...

In reply to The New NickB:


Similar situation in Staffordshire Moorlands. Karen Bradley (C) seems a decent sort, although seems a bit uncomfortable as Culture Secretary (previously she rejoiced in the title of Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Modern Slavery and Organised Crime, which sounds like she used to report to Ming the Merciless). 10,000 majority (although the seat was Labour until 2010), Remainer in a strongly Leave constituency. Local Lib Dems a bit clueless and a distant 4th last time. Don't know who the Labour candidate will be but I'm not sure it matters.

In reply to Dave Garnett:
Nottingham East, Chris Leslie a rare Co-op party MP (ie Labour); pretty safe I should think. My local interest is in Gedling where the conservatives fielded an aggressive muppet last time who pissed off the locals and gifted Vernon Coaker his seat. Anna Soubry is anothet interesting very marginal local candidate, vocally anti-brexit. Also like to see if Rushcliffe select someone in Ken Clarke's mould.

I'm not at all convinced that the polls will predict local constituencies at all well as there are loads of unusual factors... May's breathtaking bravado on calling the election given what she said; highly complex brexit effects in populations and parties , likely the biggest tactical voting levels we have ever seen, massive social media effects, pissed off youth who might finally wake up and vote in larger numbers, lots of popular standing MPs going. I suspect the UKIP vote will decline but not as much as predicted and might cause a few unexpected Tory (in the south) and Labour (in the north) loses in 3 (or 4) way fights. Even as someone sympathetic to the Lib Dems I don't see them doing as well as some seem to be saying.. they have always been better in by-elections.

My guess in a very unpredictable contest is a Conservative win with a small increase in their majority but not enough to keep the rabid eurosceptics off May's back. It has to be the end of Corbyn... even in the unlikely event his party's seats hold up and the Lib Dems win enough to remove the tory majority he seems incapable of being selected as a minority coalition government leader or being selected to fight again in a more likely repeat election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/gina-miller-best-for-brita...

In reply to The New NickB:

Edinburgh East was 49.2% SNP last time. The Tories had 9%.

I can't see the SNP losing short of their candidate getting arrested.

In reply to The New NickB: Islington North, incumbent MP is a Labour Leave supporter.

Sitting MP has little charisma; when walking through Highbury Fields with my wife, sister and niece a couple of weekends ago we passed him on the pavement and, in spite of my pointing him out, none of then recognised him.

MP has support within the local party but recent meetings have been fractious because of his stance on the EU and, interestingly enough, local Labour party members stance on diversity (see, for instance, Neil Coleman's tweets from party meetings).

Although his power-base has declined over the past 30 years, a small cult has grown around him and, in spite of the constituency voting Remain, yesterday's announcement that Labour MPs will not face deselection as well as the long history of the constituency voting Labour makes it hard to see him not being re-elected.

This election will answer a personal question: will a traditional Labour voter continue to support the Party even though its local candidate, its leader and his acolytes are a bunch of Stalinist anti-Semites?

In reply to Offwidth:

There are 30-odd others of them.

(Their site suggests 28 in total).

In reply to Mike Highbury:
I thought it was about 20 ( from a peak of about 30 in the Blair years)??

Rare might be too strong on its own, rarely well known as a sub-party may be better.

In reply to hokkyokusei:

Strategic vote would be to vote Labour to get that noxious, misogynistic prick out of Shipley.

In reply to stevieb:


Seems that he isn't, so presumably they definitely will.

At least there will be one sensible Tory prepared to speak his mind in the Commons.

In reply to The New NickB:

Eddisbury - south Cheshire, old money, rural, farm and equestrian.

Do you need me to tell you?

In reply to Dave Garnett:


Wow, the guy doesn't know when to call it a day, but yes, probably the best of the possible outcomes, a conservative who will happily vote against the party when he sees fit

In reply to Dave Garnett:

Hazel Grove in Stockport. Quite an interesting one as the fairly popular Lib dem incumbent retired in 2015 and there was a big swing to Con (aided by the national LD collapse) - 6,500 majority on an impressive 69% turnout. I don't have anything against William Wragg personally, at least he's local and I see him around a fair bit (bit nice but dim, he supported Angela Leadsom FFS which suggests very poor judgement). But it rankled at the time that we were bombarded by election material from central office which was only superficially 'localised'. And I've just noticed that sure enough GMP is looking into expenses in the constituency. It could certainly go back to Lib Dem in the future.

So depending on how the LDs play the Remain card locally and nationally (and assuming Cons electoral spending is a bit more -ahem- disciplined), I can see a LD revival but will probably only halve his majority.

Nationally, FWIW, I reckon Theresa will get a comfortable 70+ majority.

In reply to The New NickB:

"The General Election – A Statement – Andrew George
“I will stand if you want me to…”
So we have a snap General Election.
I’ve been asked to stand again in the St Ives Constituency to defeat the Conservatives here.
Although I’ve said I’d be prepared to do that I have not finally made up my mind. So I’m keen to hear whether people really want me to stand."

In reply to The New NickB:

Canterbury - Conservative seat since democracy was invented and won't change this time.

In reply to The New NickB:

Newton Scabbot in Devon (was Teignbridge). The Torries could put up Peppa Pig and she (it?) would still get in. Labour usually fail to secure the return of their deposit by miles. Lib Dems came close in the past by stealth, Torries changed the boundaries a bit to include a few Stately Homes, so the proper order of things has returned.

I hear our Polling Station has had a new redec, so I will probably just go along to check that out.

In reply to Stig:


It not just how the LDems play the remainers, it is more importantly how the Tories play them. ( and they will)

Teresa will likely say A50 is already served, there is no going back, Brexit cannot be reversed, we can only now get a worse deal by not being united , and by uniting behind her giving her a large majority and mandate remainers voting Tory would give her room to negotiate a 'softer ' Brexit. ( AND promise to keep Scotland in the Union )
( although there is apparently now some evidence that more remainers are now leaning towards a harder Brexit! It is going to be interesting how this is played.)

In my area ( Scotland) it's a straight Labour/ SNP fight, my guess it will be SNP, but SNP are almost at saturation point, there are more seats to lose than to gain, so whilst the Tories will be well and truly trounced, they will probably still be able to say the SNP support is slipping, , even if they only lose 1 or two seats.

In reply to Jim C:


Aren't the Tories the second party now?

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-be-likely-to-vote-in-...

In reply to Mike Stretford:

Have more faith comrade: "The odds against Labour, but if enough of us bet a tenner on Labour to get the most seats or Corbyn to be the next PM, the odds will shorten and the narrative will begin to change."

In reply to Jim C:


I've no doubt that is what she'll say, although in fact the rules are pretty vague about the reversibility of the exit process and, given Juncker and Tusk's comments, if we were to come to our senses before the final decision was made, I'd say there was a fair chance the whole thing could be aborted.

Not that I've any great hopes about the coming to our senses part.

In reply to Dave Garnett:


I'm not as cynical about the 'coming to our senses' part. However I think being welcomed back into the bosom of the EU is extremely unlikely. The best we can hope for is a pragmatic, not-too-hard Brexit.

In reply to Ridge:



So does that mean that you will vote Tory to help May control her over zealous Brexiteers, and get a softer Brexit?

In reply to Mike Stretford:


I should have said in MY constituency its still Labour/SNP, overall the Tories may be the second party, but it matters little when there is so few Scottish Labour MPs and Tory MPs . The SNP will win most of the seats as I said, but might drop a couple giving the Tories a chance to say SNP support is slipping. The Tories do get a lot of votes though.

In reply to Jim C:


What is an over zealous Brexiteer? What constitutes a softer Brexit? What makes you think May isn’t an over zealous Brexiteer or that voting for more Tories wouldn’t result in more over zealous Brexiteers?

In reply to Sir Chasm:


I know, tricky isn't it? Quite clever, really, to engineer a situation where Remainers are tempted to vote Conservative hoping they will use absolute power kindly and wisely.

In reply to The New NickB:

Lewisham West & Penge (previously just Lewisham West) . Now a solid Labour seat (25% majority), held by Jim Dowd (local lad) since 1992. he voted against Article 50 I would guess it will be held by him again. Labour council as well, so far has seemed to do ok for the area.

I certainly will not be voting Tory in the hopes of strengthening May's hand, I don't see her as a moderate tory, there is more than Brexit bargaining at stake.

In reply to Jim C:

Good question.

It all depends if May intends to use an increased Tory majority to arrive at a softer Brexit; or use it to break up what remains of public services and the NHS and transfer even more of taxpayer's money into the private accounts of her mates.

I currently have no way of knowing what the plan is.

In reply to The New NickB:

In South Ribble, sitting Tory MP has just under 6000 majority over Labour, with UKIP picking up just over 7000 votes and the Lib Dems 4000. A lot of UKIP voters are more naturally left leaning, so some may return to Labour. If the natural Lib Dems were to vote tactically and support Labour, there is a small chance of an upset - otherwise the seat will remain Tory. Our MP Seema Kennedy is reasonably well thought of locally ( she and her family are actually from the local area) and is not a hard brexiteer, but toes the party line more often than not. If enough people are really pissed off by Corbyn, then UKIP could conceivably take second place.

It will be more interesting to see what happens in some of the Tory seats on the Fylde - where the government's desision to overrule Lancashire County Council's ban on Fracking has the potential to upset the applecart.

In reply to The New NickB:

Conwy, hoping that Guto Bebb (Con) stays in .

In reply to Tim Davies:


No, I'm pretty sure he's the Honourable Member for Mos Eisley.

In reply to Ridge:

You could vote Lib Dem.
( but you don't sound like you are a Remoaner, you sound like you are a remainer , but someone who has moved on, and are looking to make the best of something you did not agree with)

In reply to Sir Chasm:


There is no science to this, your prediction is as valid as mine.

But IF she has more MPs to choose from, my guess is that she will pick some moderate Brexiteers ( or perhaps also some Remainers that have been persuaded of Brexit, presumably aiming at a softer Brexit)

In reply to The New NickB:

Edinburgh South is held by Ian Murray (Labour), who increased his majority to 2637 in 2015 in the midst of the SNP tidal wave across Scotland, helped by a collapse in the Lib Dem vote.

As a well regarded local MP and an active remainer in a seat which voted heavily to remain (over 70%), I expect him to hold the seat for the final time before it is abolished in the boundary changes.

As an aside, calling this election now seems to me an unnecessary and cynical distraction from the major issues facing the country and I am surprised and disappointed that the Labour party supported the Tories in voting for it when they had the Parliamentary strength to block it by abstaining.

In reply to Jim C:


If she has more MPs then they’ll already have been picked by us, or do you think that she doesn’t currently have enough “moderate Brexiteer” MPs to pick her cabinet from? Either way, what you asked was “So does that mean that you will vote Tory to help May control her over zealous Brexiteers, and get a softer Brexit?”, I was curious to know what you mean when you refer to “over zealous Brexiteers” and “softer Brexit”.

In reply to Dave B:

Nigel days he's not returning..

Lost before its even started...

In reply to Dave B:

But if he did he would definitely win.

Like if I could be arsed I'd definitely be a pro cyclist.

In reply to The New NickB:

The constituency I'm in has only ever (since it was created in 1950) been held by the Conservatives and at the last election the sitting MP got 60% of the turnout.
So not worth voting really although I'm sure I will if only for the exercise of walking to the polling station!

In reply to The New NickB:

Sheffield Hallam. I think Clegg is standing again and chances are he'll win. Labour were nowhere in 2010 but at the last election they had 35.8% of votes to Nick's 40%. It's a constituency with a high percentage of students or graduates and is fairly well-to-do so is likely to be pro-Remain which might help the Lib Dems hold the seat. If they don't then it'll be Labour who take it off them.

In reply to The New NickB:

Anyone in Norwich South? I bumped in to my MP this morning and she was saying that Clive Lewis, who is a friend of hers, has had to cancel his honeymoon.

In reply to MeMeMe:

Much the same way where I am but with Labour. We have been a strong Labour constituency since 1922. In 2015 41.1% voted Labour, closes we had to a change was in 2010 when Lib Dems got 31.2 and Labour 38.8, but that was when the Lib Dems said they would not raise tuition fees (large student population) and screwed that one up.

Nevertheless, I will go and vote.