In reply to BnB:
> Yes I've studied that. But borrowing and the deficit are very different things, although people conflate them constantly. It could be argued that every penny of Tory borrowing since 2010 is actually Labour borrowing because it derives from a deficit that the Tories inherited and which they have to eliminate before it becomes possible to reduce borrowing.I'm not ignoring the possibility (and I haven't checked) that Blair inherited a deficit from Major and this goes back ad infinitum, but a granular analysis does show that Labour accelerated borrowing during the growth phase when most governments would have been paying it down.
I'll kindly recommend you to check again your numbers. When Tony Blair took office Debt/GDP was at around 44%. In 2007 it was at 42%. The house was mostly kept in order, there was no particular reason to reduce debt further at this time given that these were very low levels by international standards anyway.
Of course the financial crisis then hit and national debt climbed to stellar highs due to a depressed economy and massive banks bail out, in a similar fashion to what happened in many other similar economies, although more acute. But that's was simply the result of the UK economy being structurally more prone to boom and bust and of the importance the financial sector to our economy, I'm not too sure where the blame lies for that but it's certainly not solely the fault of any given party.
What's interesting is what happens after 2010 though, the Conservative did slow down, moderately, the rate at which the debt was increasing, but by less than what other similar Europeans economies managed. They've reduced the deficit as a % of GDP by barely as much as France did, despite having pretty much three times the growth rate and much lower unemployment, and an influx of working age immigration. I'm sorry but that was a not a terrific performance .
My humble assessment is simply that they've focused mostly on cutting services and welfare, and did not hike up taxes, to preserve economic growth. France did the opposite, they've hiked up taxes and didn't cut services, and ended up with more or less the same result, but with significantly less growth.
However the Germans were a bit more pragmatic and less ideology driven (in other words, competent ?) and they did a bit of both which proved very effective.
Cameron's strategy was not all that bad, they basically bet on economic growth for the recovery,not entirely stupid.
Where they've made a critical (fatal ?) error, it's simply that they've ignored the long-term view.
With all the ills and exclusion their harsh cuts to public services and welfare did to the social fabric, combined with an economic growth model based mostly on an influx of foreign workers, it was bound to happen that it would come back to bite them in the face. And it did. Spectacularly.
Post edited at 10:54