UKC

I wondered if there are any UKCers in a similar position. I'm trying to gauge my own thoughts on this;

Part of me thinks it will all be sorted out and having a 16 month old European running around doesn't leave too much time for longer term worries. The latest offer is better as my partner as a student and then stay-at-home mum hasn't had the Comprehensive Health Insurance so wouldn't have been 'legally' in the country and would have been refused residency.

The other half thinks there will be real difficulties but how much and when to do something (the Grandmother-in-law skipped the GDR just in time but didn't get to take all the kids with her).

I've definitely put off big expenditure on the house (loft conversion) but I have just started a new job/career so moving abroad would be tough and I'm not really looking. The worries in this respect are would a second kid end up with fewer rights and opportunities than the first one and those three-in-the morning-lying-awake worries involve immigration centres. There was one near us and it was a prison in all but name.

Anyone else out there? What are your thoughts?

In reply to DD72: not in a similar position as iLife in an EEU country but not especially concerned as if push comes to shove ill change citizenship

In reply to wbo:

Would you regret it if you did? Or at least feel you had lost or given something up?

In reply to DD72: not really i dont think. I dont feel it would affect my identity in any way. I have no official dealings with the UK government , can't vote and so on, and can't imagine moving back

In reply to DD72:


Have you read the policy document ?
As far as it goes what will be needed is five years "continuous residence" at the time of application, but of course they don't say what "continuous residence" will mean. If it's based on the definition in uk law, which it hints that it will be the case, that excludes times as a student or stay at home mum. In fact the document explicitely states that students will be able to finish their courses, but says no more.

The good news is that whatever happens if you are married you should be able to apply for a spousal visa anyway, and that's one of the few immigration decision that can be contested in court as long as the UK is part of the ECHR, so it's quite a safe bet at least in the medium term.

The bad news is that you will need to earn more than 22,400 a year. This income requirement is likely to increase sharply in the near future.

Unfortunately the citizenship option is excluded for your partner at this point, because you need PR for that and it will be rejected because of CSI.

In reply to RomTheBear:


The r4 appraisal I heard said those who have yet to make the 5 year mark are allowed to stay until they've accrued them.



Where did it say a sharp increase was due?

In reply to summo:

Yes, but time spent as a student or unemployed will probably not count towards the five years "continuous residence" if one takes the definition of continuous residence from the existing concept in UK law. All they've said about those studying is that they'll be able to finish their course. They didn't say anything for those unemployed.

I suspect this will be unacceptable to the EU so hopefully the UK will give ground on this. But I'm not too hopeful either...


This is the conclusion that most immigration lawyers and other policy analysts made when reading the conservative manifesto. they pledged to crack down on all routes of immigration to reduce net migration below 100,000. The obvious thing to do will be tightening restrictions on spousal visas, especially given that they will explode in numbers post brexit. It's pretty much a safe bet that the requirements will increase.

In reply to DD72:

I'm in the fortunate position of having been able to register as a "foreign birth" Irish citizen through my grandfather, which means I'll be able to keep both my EU and UK rights whatever happens. Worth checking if your potential second born could do the same?

In reply to RomTheBear:

Thanks for this, I must admit I hadn't read the full report, I was just reading the analysis of it. I didn't realise time out of employment didn't count I will definitely check that.

Your last point is what really worries me. If reducing immigration become a political imperative then Serco or Capita or whoever it all gets outsourced to are not going to bother looking for the criminals, the ones who are likely to disappear or put up a fight. There going to go for those that are easy to find in order to make their targets (and profits). This is why I am a bit sceptical about my partner (we're not married by the way) going on a register.

In reply to DD72:

Well the problem is that it's really vague, they haven't said what continuous residence means, which one could say is abbot if a joke when you pretend you are making a "fair and serious offer" . however they clearly hint that time studying not count. though it would seem quite weird that someone unemployed ends up being given settled status whilst a student would be kicked out.


This unfortunately has been the life of non-EU migrants for the past decade. I know I may seem a little obsessed with the issue but that's simply because I've seen the consequence on my own family members and several of my friends.

If you're not married I would consider archiving all your messages between you and your partner starting today, pictures as well. Make sure you have all your utility bills to both your names, take a joint bank account, opt for paper paper bills on everything, and archive everything somewhere safe.
This will help show later on that you are in a genuine relationship and that she's been living with you. This may seem stupid but I personally know of someone who's under threat of deportation because of one missing payslip over five years. Better safe than sorry.

In reply to DD72:

My partner (we're not married) and two children are all non-UK EU citizens, they have only lived in the UK from 3 years this summer - so they may be at about 5 years when the laws come into affect. Probably the simplest thing we should do is actually get married - although Brexit concerns are hardly the most romantic reason for changing the terms of our perfectly good 20 year relationship! We are having a third child soon, who (I think) will qualify automatically for UK citizenship being born here (he will also get his mother's citizenship as well, so will have an EU passport in addition to a UK one). I'm figuring the little one will have to work as an "anchor baby" for his mum and brothers!

My partner is taking maternity leave from her public sector job - so the thing about whether being a stay at home parent might not count to residency terms is a worry, but I don't think that's clear yet and also whether being on maternity leave from a permanent job is the same as being a stay at home parent? Not sure if anyone knows more on whether those would be viewed differently.

I suspect that a lot of people thinking about EU immigration into the UK who were pro-Brexit were thinking about young Poles, Romanians etc. moving here and taking jobs predominantly in the private sector. As it goes on people are going to see the reality of EU immigration also includes vast numbers of families like mine - most of my kids' school friends won't know my sons aren't British: they have British sounding names, have spoken English from birth and have no accent etc. My partner is a social worker doing a job where there is a shortage of people with the appropriate degree level training, let alone with years of experience as well. Some hear from her accent that she isn't from the UK, but not all, but guess have mainly been South African or Aussie! Not many people realise English isn't her first language.
I think the government is going to find that together people like us have a surprising amount of social/political capital and can really make a stink if a humane deal isn't offered - I guardedly hope that things won't change massively for EU people already here. I could be totally wrong of course, but overall I think the push to reduce immigration won't lead to attempts to expel people like my family. Whilst the national economy tanking remains a risk, I don't think the govt. wants to wade into another quagmire of legal battles with tens of thousands of people like me (and my family).

In reply to TobyA:


I hope not for your and your family's sake Toby.

In reply to TobyA:

Are you sure ? Do not forget that this has been happening for many years with non eu nationals, at the end of the day, the majority doesn't care if they are not concerned. Worst case scenarios, people like you end up making a few bleeding heart stories in the guardian, not going to change anybody's views. There is a fair amount if cognitive dissonance within the electorate, they want to reduce immigration but they don't realise it affects people they never thought would be affected.


Well with non-eu nationals they've pretty much eliminated this problem by simply making most immigration decision non justiciable before the courts. As EEA nationals will fall under the same system, I therefore wouldn't bet on that.

The best bet at the point is that the EU negotiates hard on the issue and that the UK gives ground. Make no mistake the battle is now, not in two years time when everything is decided. Lobby your MP, support the many NGOs representing people like you. It's not much but that's probably all that can be done.

In reply to RomTheBear:

I'm with RTB here...do not trust Government and least Home office low paid workers who go through a tick list: you either tick it all or you don't- simples!

Permanent residency first, then British citizenship in the quickest possible time for you and your own is the only safe way. Even if by the end of the process you'll find yourself a couple of grounds per person lighter.

RTB mentions the money requirements: £18,000ish for the main person and £2,400 per dependent child. What he did not say is that the job needs to be based in the UK! So if you work for an engineering/oil/ bank company based outside the UK you do NOT qualify!
If you are self employed it might be hard to justify it too.

May EU recent offer is not changing anything in the course immigration law has been on for the last 10 or so years...led most of the time by May herself.

My personal fear is that many British people don't really care who else is British (sound/look right), they know that they, themselves, are British and thus will not be affected by any of it. That they have consistently been voting in that direction seems to prove this fear of mine!

In reply to RomTheBear:

I think that up to now a lot of people have been assuming it would all be OK. Now that there are actual proposals people are beginning to get far more angry and frightened. Up to now the organisations representing the three million EU citizens have been taking far too soft a line, its all been dialog and facebook posts and 10 hippies singing Kumbaya outside Downing Street. They need to get their finger out and start organising some proper protests like a national strike of all EU workers and their family members or mass movement of money out of UK banks and into the EU on the same day.

Realistically this government does not have the sort of parliamentary majority that will let it seriously piss off 3 million workers and probably another 2 million family members, it wouldn't dare do sh*t like this to a more organised group.

In reply to DD72:

I have the reverse problem, work in Europe for a European company
Really embarrassing having to explain brexit and unpleasantly uncertain when discussing future plans with the company.
Irish passport option is being explored by my whole family's on my fathers side as we all travel for work so brother and cousins are all looking into it.
Can only imagine how unpleasant it must be too have that level of uncertainty surrounding your family with regards residency.

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

The problem is that any action of this type is likely to have the opposite effect, it will pit the opinion against EU citizens, and you can bet the rethoric will shift very quickly to "get the f*ck out if you don't like it here." (There is already quite a bit of that)

In reply to DD72:

I don't know the answer, but anyone in that position has my sympathy. It's not in my name.

In reply to DD72:

Well, I am Irish, as is my wife, have lived in
the UK for about 24 years, 2 children, both born in London. My son just got his British passport, and my wife has citizenship. I have not bothered, and am not too worried as we (wife and I) are half thinking of leaving UK anyway (back to Ireland or near the alps) and Brexit cr*p is just another reason. I am lucky in that in my area of work many companies offer remote home based work which can be anywhere in Europe.

In reply to DD72:

No, not bothered, quite looking forward to becoming part of the diaspora and leaving this place to the inselaffe.

In reply to RomTheBear:

I don't think that's right. It is a sad fact that in this life you get more by being annoying and a bit scary than you get by being nice. If you are nice and non threatening it is safe to ignore you. The whole Brexit b*llocks only started because the Tories were afraid of a few million UKIP voters. We get all kinds of nonsense because the politicians are scared of muslim voters. The pro-european lobby of people and companies that trade with the EU need to organise themselves, stop playing nice and make themselves more of a political threat than UKIP.

In reply to Yanis Nayu:


Thanks man, that really is appreciated.

Count me in as somebody deeply affected by all this , Yesterday I had to explain to my kid that we weren't going to be deported.

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Yep. But EU citizens can't vote. Therefore they are expendable. UKIP voters are not expendable for the tories, they are vital.
Guess who's going to win.

In reply to RX-78:



It's ok the Irish will keep free movement anyway.
Very good for you. However it does utterly destroy the so called argument that the reason to end free movement was that we should treat all foreigners the same way...

In reply to RomTheBear:
EU citizens are not expendable, the economy would collapse without them. At some point what the PM says is an irresistible force will meet the immovable object of economic reality.

Lets start some simple analysis... even most of the cabinet think overseas students should be out of the cap, any sensible economic commentator says the same. This is a multi-billion export market for the UK and the total with EU students is likely to be of the order of 100k on its own. Are we really going to collapse many UK Universities and take an extra new massive hit on trade balance to meet ex UKIP voter needs? Expect students to be out of the numbers soon.

Now essential professional jobs. You cant train people from scratch so we have a gap of well over the target currently being filled from overseas trained staff and this continuing annually (probably accelerating as retirements and departures are on the increase, especially in the public sector) until we start huge and expensive training increases from a home population (who may not even be interested in big enough numbers).

Then we have the minimum wage jobs...again on their own exceeding target (often hidden, as people come, then go). Maybe we don't need fruit farms or logistics warehouses or care homes in the SE... I suspect we do.

I really feel for those with family affected but reality will bite these idiotic immigration target setting bastards on the arse soon.

In reply to DD72:

I am British. My ex-wife is German. We moved to the UK 19 years ago. She has lived here ever since and is now retired. Our two adult children are both British and one lives with her.

My mum and step-dad, both in their 80s, are British and have lived in France for the last 19 years.

I am worried about all of them.

In reply to Offwidth:

As a believer in controlled immigration I've never understood the government's obsession with having a fixed number as a target.
The number of immigrants needed will fluctuate from year to year.
There needs to be serious attempts made to reduce the UK's dependence on imported labour but how failing year after year to meet some arbitrary migration figure even begins to address said dependence is beyond me.

In reply to jethro kiernan:

like you I'm based outside the UK but in the UK & had to spend part of my annual appraisal last week discussing the possible consequences of Brexit on my contract. My French boss cannot understand what the UK is thinking.

I'll likely retire in a couple of years so could escape the hassle by moving back to Scotland (where I still have a house) but that would only cause problems for my partner who is French (& who would by then be retired so probably under the income threshold). We've already decided that, although for the past 15 years we didn't see any need, we should get married which should help me get a French passport in time. I still need to investigate if I can apply for French nationality now but I suspect it'll be complex as although I've been physically in France, I'm on secondment from a Scottish government agency & still pay tax & NI in the UK (its not clear on the forms I've downloaded).

Unless, by some miracle, Brexit is dropped, I think the least I can expect is a lot of previously unecessary paperwork & I'm trying not to think of the worst

In reply to Offwidth:
I agree with all of what you said, however assuming that long term economic will trump short term politics, IMO, is not a given. What we have seen so far is that it doesn't.

The reality is that those three millions eu citizens are a big problem for the conservatives. If most stay, and eventually move to citizenship, they are done for the foreseeable future. Do not underestimate either the influence of a staunchly anti-immigration PM.

In reply to baron:


Agree completely.

In reply to RomTheBear:


That is the crux of the matter. She knows there will be payback if 3 million angry people ever get to vote. But Theresa May's position is very weak, she's not going to survive as leader until the next election and the Tories could dodge that bullet by replacing her with someone on the pro-EU wing of the party. What the pro-EU lobby needs to do is to apply enough pressure so pressing ahead is more unpalatable than changing course.

In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Unfortunately, with the DUP deal, seems to le the PM hold all the cards. There is no serious contender to replace her, I can't really see many tories opposing her on a vote of no confidence given that they'd rather die than have corbyn. And, as oppposef to domestic matters, she's free to negotiate Brexit however she wants, that's the royal prerogative for you.

Given that paradigm the only real pressure really can come from the EU and her own governement, so far that's what's been happening.

In reply to Offwidth:



The government has effectively already dealt with that by making it harder for students to stay after they finish their studies. If all the students who arrive, leave three years later there is no impact on the net migration figures.

In reply to RomTheBear:

I had a read of the policy and I can't see anything that requires the EU citizen to actually be working for any of the five years it requires to be able to apply for 'settled status'. In fact they seem to have removed all these requirements. But I do agree it is really vague.

I have also seen colleagues and friends treated like this with partners unable to enter the country or threatened with deportation for arbitrary reasons. I know all countries have immigration systems but I suspect ours has a good dose of cruelty designed into it which is why I'm sceptical of leaving decisions up to the UK courts.

In reply to DD72:

I probably don't count as I am not a spouse of a UK person. I am the spouse. Lived in UK for 23 years. Masters, PhD MIA, at least 16 years employed status, probably 5 years self-employed status. One British husband, one Scottish son, but worried shitless. Yes, I lie awake at 3 o'clock at lot of the time.

In reply to DD72:

Yes, they do not define what "continuous residence" means. But they clearly say that students will only be able to finish their course. One can only deduce from that that if students are not allowed to stay unemployed won't either. It would be strange if students were not allowed to stay but someone unemployed would.

In reply to Bob Hughes:

Exactly, it's very difficult to control the side of the equation of people who get in, simply because there will be always people who tick the boxes. What they can control better though is those who leave. That's why I have little doubt that the government aim will be to make as many people leave as possible. If anyone has read the policy document there is little doubt that it has been designed to exclude as many people as humanely possible whilst leaving time for people to leave and avoid a cliff edge and mass deportations.

This is unfortunately what I feared, mass deportation would have simply been impossible, the "stealth" approach is to turn the pressure up over several years, leave people in limbo and uncertainty, so as to make them make them leave by themselves. It's probably already working.

Maybe I am pessimistic but the nature of this policy document tells me most of it is not really up to negotiation. If you look at it you realise they pretty much have to be already building the systems required to implement it. I suspect the UK will go ahead with this appalling "offer" even as negotiations are ongoing.

In reply to TobyA:

I'm about to have a similar (ish) situation to you, except that me and my family (German wife, 2 kids born in Germany) are only just about to make the move back to the UK, on the other hand we're already married. Tbh I'd assumed there'd be no issue with this down the road as we've been married a while but I remember reading an insane story about a woman from I think Thailand being deported about six months ago. She went home to look after sick parents, ended up being out of the UK for more than six months of the year, taken to a detention centre when she flew back and despite some appeals she was deported. She's got adult children in the UK and had lived in Scotland for 20+ years.

Point is, if EU nationals will fall under the same rules as non-EU soon all of us in this situation will certainly want to be very clued up on the rules. They're clearly not messing around when it comes to non-EU nationals.

In reply to Matt Vigg:

Well for your wife and kids really what's going to matter is the cut off date. They've said it could be as early as the day art 50 was triggered, if that is the case then it may well be difficult for your wife and kids to get this "settled status" which BTW is not really "settled" as it can be taken away if you are out of the Uk for more than 6 months a year over two years... There is always the spousal visa route but then again more requirements especially income.

In reply to Matt Vigg:

At the moment under the current proposals an EU citizen could leave the country for up to two years without affecting their 'settled status' and longer if they could prove the reason for leaving was beyond their control or they have a strong connection to the country. So a situation like that wouldn't be too likely but it is all still really vague.

It appears the settled status is meant as a route to full citizenship or can be maintained without applying. Here is the link to the document I read it once but couldn't face it twice, very long on rhetoric and warm words but short on detail given the time they have had to come up with it.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/safeguarding-the-position-of-eu-...

As another poster said the people standing up for us are the EU negotiating team not the UK government.

In reply to Bob Hughes:

Overseas student numbers had been increasing and EU students are to be added after brexit and plenty currently get jobs due to that massive skill shortage. It's simply impossible to get sub 100,000 overall without massive damage to the economy and to get it below that number even in about 5 years requires massive training investment for home students leading to professions. Its cloud cockoo land politics.

In reply to RomTheBear:

It really isn't long term. We currently need over 100,000 new workers in skilled jobs every year... think about that for a moment. This will impact long before any EU citizens get treated like some non EU citizens are already treated. This is a planning failure of massive proportions.

In reply to DD72:

Well I guess there's little sense reading any of it right now as there's a good chance it'll change anyway, and whatever gets into law may need testing in court as well.

In reply to Offwidth:

True. But in a way that's what people wanted. Or at least the consequence. It will be hard but make no mistake about it, freedom of movement will end, that means inevitably many will have to leave, and more will not be able to come back if they ever leave.
There was an report from Deloitte I think where they surveyed skilled European professional. About 47% say they are thinking to leave within the next few years, it doesn't surprise me at all.

In reply to RomTheBear:
The one counter argument to that is jobs. As long as people have better paid jobs to go to they will probably leave. The unemployment rate for young people in Europe is still frighteningly high. And London is still and will continue to be the global hub to migrate to.

Note I said global not just European.

In reply to neilh:

Most skilled Europeans migrants can get a job pretty easily anywhere in Europe, whether you're a software engineer or a nurse or a plumber.
Those with lower skills however will be more tempted to do everything they can to stay, as they have less of a choice. I think this is pretty much what the Deloitte survey highlighted, the most skilled are the most likely to leave


I'm sure many people will still come London, but it will be mostly students and family reunion, and a lot less professionals for sure, that's the reality of immigration policy.

In reply to RomTheBear:
Upto a point yes. But you do have to ask why those professionals are not working in their own countries in the first place. Is it there are just more opportunities here?

It is an incredibly complex situation politically and economically .who knows for example if Macron will be able to attract back into France all those entrepreneurs who upped sticks and left France to set up in the UK.

And perversely I think the UK's aversion to Identity cards does not help in sorting this issue out. If we had had some sort of ID system in place it might have helped in an easier transition.

Anyway we are hijacking this thread .

I am very pro freedom of movement within the EU.

In reply to DD72:

I'm Scottish with a German wife and a daughter born in Scotland but she is registered in both Britain and Germany. We dont know what will happen and are watching all this with interest and no small amount of concern. Add to the mix that there is a good chance Britain, after they leave the EU, will water down environmental legislation and ecological consultants will not be in demand. I'm an ecological consultant. Had my annual review this week and had to try and explain whats happening to my Director.

Currently seriously looking at taking my hobby of photographing adventure sports and trying to go professional so I can be location independent.

I'm also an (unwilling) member of the awake-at-3am-club!

In reply to RomTheBear:

There is no evidence most people wanted that at all, even in the vote the opposite is almost certainly true (more than 2% voted for Brexit as they wanted to remove EU controls but were relaxed about skilled immigration where the UK had genuine gaps... I've seen people post on UKC saying this). Now we are leaving the EU, our representative democracy determines what is best and that is not wrecking the economy and the NHS and our Universities by arbritrary targets in the face of insufficient UK based professional training.

In reply to DD72:

Hi - I am British and my wife is French. My wife has spent more time in the UK than she has in France, having lived in the UK over 20 years and having paid tax. national insurance etc for most of that time. We have lived abroad for the past few years in Oman, China and a few other places and we now find ourselves living in France.

At some stage, we might like to come back to the UK for a while and yes - I'm concerned how easy this would be. My wife is a UK-qualified teacher, so that might help us secure a long term visa for her, but I am not sure where the new rules leave us... we haven't been in the UK for the past 5 years, but would my wife's previous 20 years in the UK paying taxes really count for nothing under these new proposals, if we chose to come back?

In reply to neilh:


My assessment, and that's purely from my personal experience and having worked in the UK with many relatively well skilled people who like me came from various EU countries, the main motivation is simply the very flexible nature of the UK labour market, its meritocratic nature and the lack of bureaucracy.

However all the advantages of this flexible labour market, the fact that you can come in and take a job and make a career with nothing but your skills, all of that goes out of the window as soon as you need to enter the mighty world of shite that is the immigration system, plus the very persistent feeling of not being welcome. It just very heavily tips the scale the other way.

And it may seem a bit irrational but people have their dignity, when you've worked your ass off for many years in the UK, paid your taxes, made sacrifices, that last thing you want to do is to go and be fingerprinted and beg the home office for the privilege to get some half-baked immigration status that is not even permanent or guaranteed.

So here you go, about a good half of my friends in the UK are skilled EU nationals and that's the mood I'm picking up. This may not be representative, but I think it's a decent guess.



We'll see, immigration statistics suggest a strong trend towards EU national from the richest EU countries coming back home after brexit. They may not have a choice in the matter later on.


If they had identity cards in the first place, Brexit may not even have happened.

In reply to Offwidth:

A bit naive. This democracy is not really representative and even if it was, it is very questionable that people know what's best for them - this country is in a heightened state of cognitive dissonance and denial. Moreover, in those brexit matters, the blunt reality is that parliament will not have that much of a say.

In reply to RomTheBear:

So there are plenty of jobs for skilled workers in the rest of the EU?

In reply to baron:


Yes, most definitely.

In reply to RomTheBear:
So all the people who are going to leave the UK will be able to find a job?

In reply to baron:

Why do you think they wouldn't ? Surely those who leave must be confident they can get a job wherever they want to go. To a large extent it's not really a problem to find a job in the EU especially if you have skills and you're mobile. many countries have shortages.
To give you an example it took me less than a month to find well paid work in Cyprus, one of the countries with the most unemployment, and I'm no rocket scientist really, in fact i'm pretty average, plus I speak broken greek.

Those with elementary jobs and no qualifications may find it more difficult in less flexible labour markets than the UK - but those are a minority, and probably more likely to stay put.

In reply to RomTheBear:

I'd read an article in The Sunday Times about skilled labour shortages in the Baltic countries where they were using non EU migrants to fill those shortages.
These shortages were the result of skilled workers moving into the UK.
Maybe Brexit will help alleviate these shortages.

In reply to baron:



I doubt it will change this much, as long as there a big differences in salaries and opportunities, those who are skilled and mobile will still move, it just won't be to the UK, it will be other western europeans countries, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherland... to a large extent already the case anyway.

In reply to baron:

In my field (IT) there is plenty of work over here in Germany, so long as there's some work to be had elsewhere in Europe I'm pretty sure there will be a pull out of the UK for those skills. The only reason I ended up working in Germany (and Greece) before that was that it took basically zero effort in terms of visas, etc.

I have also worked in Aus but that was with the offer of a pre-arranged job complete with all Visa stuff sorted. If the UK can offer this kind of thing it might tempt people here going forward but I strongly suspect people are being put off now with the unknown and the bad feeling directed at immigrants of all types. If it were Germany getting out of Europe and I was looking at whether to move there, well I'd definitely be waiting or just looking elsewhere.

In reply to RomTheBear:

just as an example, i work for a multi-national based in spain and we have a load of vacancies - we struggle to fill them because a good knowledge of english is a deal breaker for us. We see a lot of otherwise well qualified candidates who just don't meet the language requirements. Obviously any EU national who has spent time in the UK would sail through.
And this is Spain which has one of the highest rates of unemployment in europe.

This is just one example but i'm sure we're not unique. Spending time working in the UK - or any english-speaking country - puts you well above the pack if you're looking for a job in a lot of EU countries.

In reply to RomTheBear:
Respectfully I think you are the one who is naive; major economic impacts of the type that will be caused if we force immigration below 100, 000 in the next 5 years will nearly always force goverments to rethink. Representative democracy is exactly what happens in the UK. We elect MPs and they form governments who produce bills that have to pass both houses.

I fail to see how something as abstract as a country can have the feelings you describe but the Maybot is clearly in full cognitive dissonace as is much of her party. However, enough of her party and some in Cabinet are reportedly much more realistic and so she almost certainly doesn't have a majority for shooting the UK in the foot. That means brexit negotiation positions will change, as has been widely reported. It is perfectly feasible that we end up with what amounts to close to free movement for skilled workers in the next decade while we sort out our training base. It's cold comfort for worried families but it's the reality of a minority government with a small working parliamentary majority based on a dodgy partnership with the DUP.

In reply to Offwidth:

"... will nearly always force goverments to rethink"

Definitely true, but bear in mind there'll probably be a lot of bridges to rebuild by the time minds in government get changed, in terms of immigrants perception. Then add to that all the visa crap. Getting out of the EU is one thing but the 100,000 target is utter meaningless insanity, as far as I'm aware not even UKIP were calling for that!

In reply to Offwidth:

Yes, and both labour and the conservatives seem committed to exit the single market, and end freedom of movement.
Moreover, the worst of the economic effects are medium and long term, but the decision over brexit are to be taken in the short term.
The UK is the appearance of a representative democracy, but it is in fact an electoral dictatorship, the vast majority of the bills are initiated by the government, and in practice, with the whip system, rebellions are relatively rare.
Even when the Commons had a very slim majority, even smaller than the one they have now, historically the government was always able to pass most of their bills.

Finally, the parliament doesn't have much a say over Brexit anyway, whether you like it or not. The reality is that this is being negotiated by the government exclusively, with the royal prerogative, MP will be given a false choice, accept what has been negotiated or crash out with nothing.

Just look at the positions the government has taken so far, they've come up with exiting the single market, end freedom of movement, leave the customs union, and made the smallest offer they could possibly do on EU citizens. Have you seen this being challenged at all in parliament ? Corbyn is more interested in taking back Britain to the 60s and domestic matters of little significance.

In reply to RomTheBear:

I wish I didn't agree with what you're saying but sadly I think you're right.

I wonder how easy it would be to re-train to work in another country...

In reply to RomTheBear:

Corbyn is a real waste of time on the EU( he is not remotely interested and leaves it to Starmer all the time). The sooner all they younger voters latch onto this the better.Why on earth they worship the ground he walks on I have no idea.

In reply to neilh:

That's called populism. and this country has fallen right in it, from both sides. I wonder how long it will take before people come back to earth.

In reply to RomTheBear:
You're worst than what you accuse Corbyn of if you seriously claim we are an elected dictatorship. Go and look what brought down UK governments in the past. Why do you think we have a minority goverment now?

There is simply no minority government mandate for foot shooting of that level so it is highly unlikely. Royal perogative is based on the government... if May keeps pointing the gun and puts her finger close to the trigger she will almost certainly be replaced as its head.

None of your position list has even happened yet. Its all rhetoric. Damage has been done and some change is inevitable but its currently most likely we end up more like Norway, just with a bad hangover.

In reply to neilh:


Corbyn just doesn't like the EU. FOr him they just embody the liberal economic model he spent his life fighting. In fact it doesn't take long to check his voting records and see that he voted against every single EU treaty.

In reply to RomTheBear:

Learn something new everyday. Best tell kirkoman...

In reply to Offwidth:

Yes, what did ? We've had only one vote of no confidence with just one vote, in almost a hundred years, and that's just because one MP didn't make it to the commons on that day !

BTW my characterisation of the UK being an electoral dictatorship, is not from me, the term was popularised by Lord Hailsham in a famous lecture.
The legislative calendar of Parliament is determined by the government, and the FPTP majoritarian system plus party whips means that statistically speaking government bills virtually always pass the House of Commons.


Exactly...


Possibly, but do not forget, if there is a membership challenge, there is no guarantee a soft brexiter would win, in fact the conservative membership has never been so anti eu and anti immigration.


Actually a lot of it has already happened, at least in the minds. The UK and the EU seem to have already accepted that there would be no membership of the single market, no freedom of movement, and no customs union. In fact all of this was clearly set out in the Art 50 letter, which was not contested at all in Parliament. This ship has sailed a long time ago, the debate has moved on to how long the transition should be, but the direction is pretty clear.

However I agree that eventually, the Uk, by necessity, will rebuild its relationship with the EU pretty much as it was before, stealthily, step by step, over decades. But we're looking at 20/30 years here.

In reply to RomTheBear:



Yes, this policy is already in place and already working. As a non-eu resident, I am supposed to get a Biometric Residence Permit with my picture and fingerprints. This has to be shown to a landlord before I can rent, an employer before I can work, and a school before I can attend. This piece of plastic costs £300 and you must send your passport to the home office for 6 months. The only explanation why this card can't be made in an hour at your local post office for a tenner is because they hope people will just give up and leave.

In reply to Jimbocz:

Is that just not the same as some of the id cards in Europe anyway?

In reply to RomTheBear:
What Hailsham said is the same empty rhetoric as you. Excessive abuse of power simply gets punished in the next election. Of course our democracy could be improved (particularly by PR) but it will retain many imperfections whatever form we have.

Any new right wing tory leader still has no mandate if enough of the left of the party refuse to support them. Either they compromise towards softer brexit or they go back to the people.

Oh and you need to widen your perspective on the clear instability of minority governments.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections

In reply to Offwidth:

And yet backed up by hard facts. Governement get their bills through 95% of the time.


Very true, but unless you have noticed, the next election is AFTER brexit and it is unlikely that anything in the brexit deal that will be agreed (if any) will be easily amended or reversed in the foreseeable future.


I'm not sure you realise, but the soft brexit boat with single market membership and free movement has sailed a while ago. You seem to be the only one not realising it. Whether it's businesses, markets, and eu citizens, or the EU, they are already preparing for it. Even the likes of Philipp Hammond have given up.



Let's stop for a minute, if the governement falls appart, you end up with what ? Corbyn, who is a hard brexiteer as well, or another Tory governement, most likely the same. Even in the opinion, anyway, there is no support for keeping free movement.

In fact I'll go as far as to say that brexit not happening, out of total disarray and the uk governement asking for a revote or a pause, which is a very remote possibility, is in fact more likely than a soft brexit, that is politically undeliverable.

The most likely scenario remains that the government manages to wobble along and delivers a botched hard brexit, which hurts growth prospects for the long term.

In reply to neilh:


Could be, but I doubt in Europe that the host nation intentionally makes it difficult to obtain.
I could be wrong though, I've rarely tried in other countries .

In reply to RomTheBear:
I really don't know where you are getting your ideas from. Some form of softer brexit with a version of the customs union and no free movement but some deal on skilled EU movement seems to me to be pretty much the same increased liklihood as after the election ( ie pretty likely). I see no sense that Hammond has given up on this, more that he has become emboldened (not that it makes a difference as the government doesn't have the votes).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/philip-hammond-brexit-pett...

Show me your sources ... mine are the bulk of reports in the serious press, economist views and business views.

It seems even more crazy to me that a Corbyn Labour government would be pushing a harder brexit than this minority government... those peddling this seem to be more about propaganda than serious analysis.

In reply to Offwidth:

I agree, but what you describe sounds very much like hard brexit then, nothing like Norway and nothing that will make EU citizens feel like they want to stay.



Yes, and you'll have noticed, reading this that he seems to have given up of freedom of movement or the single market, instead focusing on the supply chain and so on. I.e the direction seems to be some sort of FTA for goods, not the single market with free mouvement


If what you want is a view from the press, here is one :

https://www.ft.com/content/fbe091c6-d729-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e


Propaganda ? Leaving the single market is official labour policy !

Frankly I hope you are right and I'm wrong, that the gouvernement collapses and gets replaced with another committed to a Norway type deal. But I'm just trying to be realistic, I just don't see how it would be possible right now. A whole collapse of leadership that leaves the country paralysed and back to the ballot box for euref2 is more plausible, although still unlikely. But who knows, stranger things have happened.

In reply to neilh:


The difference is that in many eu countries ID cards are mandatory for everybody, not only for a subclass of the population.
Anyway the situation in the UK is a joke, essentially landlords and banks are required to check that you are entitled to stay in the UK, without any practical way to do so if you are actually British without a passport... they end up having to rely on facies and accent.

In reply to RomTheBear:

ID cards should be mandatory in this country. It was one of many things that got shelved by TBlair. A great pity .

In reply to neilh:


It got shelved because of large number of voters being dead set against it, who then complained that we don't know who's in the country and then proceeded to leave the EU because of immigration... which now means we pretty much need ID cards by the backdoor.
It's funny how these myths and ideology in the electorate end up producing absurd and contradictory results.

In reply to Offwidth:


Just as you were saying that : https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-...

You couldn't make it up.

In reply to DD72:

Not worried enough for Brexodus though. I have decided to make my life here and will take all the necessary steps towards achieving this goal. What would push me out is abject poverty or open and blatant discrimination against me. I do see either happening or hope anyway.

In reply to RomTheBear:

Indeed, and right now I'm watching Question Time with the editor of the Economist suggestung a form of brexit with remaining in the single market and customs union as the best for Britains economy.

In reply to Offwidth:


Well yes, he is stating the obvious.
Unfortunately "the economist" is not running the country !

In reply to RomTheBear:



God, could someone explain like I am 5 what's going on with that? I thought I was following what's going on but I am lost now.

In reply to Jimbocz:

They ignored the party whip as shadow ministers so had to go. Given Corbyn knew their views and was a serial whip ignorer himself maybe the whip should never have been in place.

The plea...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/20/end-austerity-uk-sing...

On the response

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/29/jeremy-corbyn-sacks-three-...