UKC

So Labour did well in the last election...and think they will next time.

The Conservatives had a poor campaign (and are analysing that as you do after a near miss).
The Conservatives had a leader who came over badly in the campaign.
The printed press appear to have lost influence (and will perhaps be more subtle in future).
Labour benefited from the remain vote - there was some hope of diversity - which they seem keen to forget.
Not sure how much critical analysis is going on in Labour (ie, they'll just do the same...).
Labour benefited from tactical voting / progressive alliance which they seem to reject.
The Conservatives have moved to a presidential style of decision making, which is not a UK tradition, and Labour seem to be doing the same.
Brexit™ looks worse and worse.....yet Corbyn and May are united in their enthusiasm for it, but May might 'go'.

Bit of a worry really...

In reply to HardenClimber:

To say Labour did well is relative. They did as well as Brown in 2010. It's only because people were expecting a Labour wipe out that they now feel they did well. Many Labour mps dropped Corbyn from they personal literature as they felt he was toxic.

The Tories have learnt from the sacking of the 2 advisors to May that presidential politics didn't work for them.

I think the next election will be policy focused.

In reply to summo:




Do you believe the SNP did well?

In reply to summo:

Yes, they did relatively well....and hope to continue that trend, taking the special circumstances as a rubber stamp for a presidential isolationist stance.

Given some of the noises about ECJ, immigration caps etc I'm not sure the May Party have really moved on (though they did find a couple of scapegoats).

In reply to FreshSlate:


They held a majority, but lost seats because they were too indef2 focussed. So wouldn't say did well, no, but they were in a position prior to the election that was hard to improve on. It could only really go in one direction.

In reply to HardenClimber:


Problem is within a week or two they've already showed their true anti western democracy capitalist colours. If they want to improve, best silence McDonnell and the other haters.

In reply to HardenClimber:

I would dispute the idea that Labour did "well", they only did "well" considering the 100+ seats they were wrongly forecast to lose.

In reply to summo:

I notice you're No 1 poster for at least the 2nd week running now, mainly by posting your pro Tory bullshit.
Have No 4 got you on the top their Paypal list?

In reply to Lusk:

I notice you're No 1 poster for at least the 2nd week running now, mainly by posting your pro Tory bullshit.

Nice...

In reply to FactorXXX:

That is what passes for debate on the left of politics these days.

In reply to Big Ger:

I would dispute the idea that Labour did "well", they only did "well" considering the 100+ seats they were wrongly forecast to lose.

They came second.
Or, as it's otherwise known, the first loser...

In reply to Big Ger:

Considering the starting point was annihilation, they did well....but

My point was, they don't really seem to be analysing why they survived and if they don't this result may well be a 'dead cat bounce'.....

(Perhaps, by pushing the line that they did badly, you are doing them a favour: they might realise they need a proper analysis rather than running around shouting 'I'm alive').

In reply to Lusk:


Glad you are speaking out for your caring free speech loving tolerant corbinista friends as usual.

Peace and love to you.

In reply to HardenClimber:



Agreed.

In reply to Big Ger:


But all the bullshit, "he's unelectable" in the media, put a lot of people off voting Labour, or indeed voting at all, have the same election this week and it would be a very different story.

Tories are already in melt down mode, the nice Mr. Gove stabbing TM in the back this weekend, publicly going against her, saying the public servant cap should be lifted. It won't be long thankfully.

In reply to krikoman:

No more than Labour. 3 more off the shadow cabinet last week, talk of deselection because the party is too diverse. They need to be careful if the party splits, there won't be a Labour type party in office for decades.

In reply to krikoman:


His mate Boris has done the same this morning.

In reply to summo:


Very different to Labour to be honest, at least their dissent was in the house, not spreading whispers and treachery in the streets. They stood for what they believed to be right in front of their peers and took the consequences, not going behind their leaders back.

In reply to HardenClimber:

If the Conservatives manage to install someone reasonably moderate and charismatic who can hold the party together while they effectively manage expectations over brexit (Norway style is the only viable and barely palatable option if we must leave) then I suspect you're right, this will turn out to be a high watermark for Labour (and the tories). Especially so if Labour's leadership continue to ignore the fact they've benefited significantly from the anything but the 'please gods anything but this tory brexit trainwreck' vote this time around. They won't be forgiven by the young and outward looking they energised this time around if their voices aren't heard and represented, they'll show no old-school loyalty and will vote (uselessly under FPTP) elsewhere if they feel cheated. No sign of that at the moment on the front bench but it's going to take a while for brexit to really start stinking, the question is who'll drop it first Labour or the Conservatives because that's the winner next time around, the public mood has already swung significantly against leaving. My guess is we get another election before pen goes to paper on the interim brexit agreement forced by A50's 2 year deadline and it'll be a rather different world in which we go to the polls a year from now.

It's not a good situation but it's looking marginally better than it did pre-election.

Keep pestering your MP to lobby and vote for sanity even if their party won't whichever party that is.
jk

In reply to krikoman:


Doesn't matter if it's front of house or back office. The Tories have the same cabinet as before. Labour can't hold their shadow cabinet together for more then a few weeks at a time.

Labour need to decide if they want to be some moderate / centrist party, or go hard leftward towards some form of socialist communism, it is trying to be two different things at present. With its leader going one way and the majority of its MPs the other. Time will tell .

In reply to jkarran:

I still do not understand Corbyn's views on Brexit- if anybody can explain them it would be great. He voted leave as far back as 1975 and he seems haunted by what to do on this subject. The EU is probaly the worlds best free trade block, and free trade and globalisation do just not fit into his political beliefs IMHO.

I just wonder how many of his young educated pro EU supporters will stick with him in the medium long term.

In reply to summo:


Of course it matters, it might not to you, but if you want to be seen as a person with some sort of backbone or ethics then you should be "brave" enough to speak out in front of anyone and take the consequences. Obvioulsy, if you like your politicians to be slimy back-stabbing bastards with few moral then you can always support the like of Boris and Gove, and applaud how they conduct themselves.


Time will tell, and it was interesting in the last election how some Labour MPs still tried to distance themselves from JC although they'd just won their seats, while other had a road to Damascus reaction after FINALLY realising what traditional Labour supporters want of their party, which isn't Tory lite, but that's what we'd been told that was what most people wanted.

Again, Labour policies are not hard left as you and many others seen to want to portray, socialism doesn't have the be Stalinist, however much you want it to be.

In reply to neilh:




Where else do we have to go? My guess is unless he undergoes a damascene transformation on the EU his support will wilt away in favor of apathy and protest voting. Then again, maybe not. After all, where else do we go if we want change... Pretty much 'anything but this' gets my vote at the moment and that vote isn't getting 'wasted' on fragmenting the opposition.

Hopefully as brexit's costs and dubious benefits become unavoidably apparent pressure will grow for a ballsier position from Labour on providing the people with a real choice: accept brexit for what it is, costly folly or seek a way to remain which will likely also cost us dear. At the moment they can get away with ignoring the elephant in the room but not forever unless the more swivel-eyed tories find some way and someone (May? Unlikely) willing and able to railroad brexit through parliament and take the fall whatever its cost all without triggering another election. Just about possible if unlikely.
jk

In reply to jkarran:


I actually think May is still going to try and get hard brexit through in the current parliament. Unless there is actually a proper Tory revolt this is a distinct possibility. It's like she hasn't noticed that she called an election that left her in a worse position than she started with.

In reply to jkarran:

From where I stand JC is just as much in favour of a hard Brexit as the Brexiters in the Tory party.At least those in the Tory party want to reach out to the rest of the globe including the USA. JC just wants to be isolationist and non global( I cannot for the life of me imagine JC having a working relationship with the USA). Exactly the opposite of the desires of most young people.

I agree a centrist pro EU party would win one hell of alot of votes ( excatly what TB is saying).

Its going to take somebody with alot of political balls to get it going.

In reply to neilh:


Corbyn's brexit isn't hard or soft, pragmatic or ideological, isolationist or gloabalist it was just about muddled and vague enough to hold the disparate coalition of voters he has together in hope and disbelief for an election. That won't wash again, he has to clearly and boldly differentiate Labour on brexit when the chance arises. 'For jobs' is as transparently meaningless and undeliverable as 'red white and blue'. Personally I think pressure from within the Labour party as the public mood shifts should be enough for a real 'second chance' offering of some sort to make the next Labour manifesto. The LibDems policy was a winner but rightly IMO nobody believed they could deliver it, Labour might still be able to.
jk

In reply to jkarran:

Indeed, it seems to me labour strategy on brexit is to effectively support a Tory hard brexit by staying vague and not opposing it, wait for the economic disaster, and then use that to win the next election.

Pretty much sums up the state of uk politics. Party before country.

In reply to neilh:


That's the Libdems though isn't it and they tanked really. I would normally vote for them but didn't as tactically it would have been a waste in my constituency. Cons won anyway but I don't regret my Labour vote.

Labour did well (compared to expectations) because of their social policies, public sector pay, appeal to the young over tuition fees etc - all issues which needed to brought back into political debate.
I cannot understand the hardening of Labour's position on Brexit - they must realise that a lot of us remainers voted for them in the hope of a softer approach?

Corbyn's stated aim is to bring about another election soon as he has the initiative at the moment. I hope he knows what he's playing at as agreeing with the tories on brexit seems to be a stupid stance for a resurgent opposition to take.

In reply to pasbury:

If the LibDems come off the fence and just say they will terminate Brexit I think they'd do well....people will recoil from another referendum and they will have a clear stand...

Labour are increasingly looking as if they are more wedded to a Brexit™ than the Conservatives where there seems to be some dissent (even if it is for effect only) and will loose the remain vote. UKIP will become (be clearly seen to be) a small racist party. Given our bleak economic outlook, whatever happens, Labour's policies will struggle not to look profligate. Perhaps the hope is that the Conservatives will go on cheering austerity, rather than projecting it as a necessary evil (the difference between: 'I'm sorry, but this is going to hurt' and 'that's great, you look as if you are in agony').

In reply to HardenClimber:


Simply abandoning it without a clear mandate on that single issue is not going to happen, it's far too easy to level accusations of elitism and undemocratic behaviour, it would at best be a delay for brexit and the death knell for whichever party ran with the idea. A stop on brexit has to be and be seen to be from 'the people'.
jk

In reply to HardenClimber:


The difference between, "were all in it together" and "f*ck you, Jack I'm alright, pull up the ladder"

In reply to pasbury:

They are just waiting for the tories to crash and burn over brexit.
Politically speaking, that's probably the best short and medium term strategy. For the country, however, its will be a disaster, by the time the tories crash and burn it will be too late.
So the near future looks pretty bleak for the UK, The first act of economic self harm will be a Tory hard brexit, and Corbyn will then probably take over and place the final nail in the economic coffin with his inept economic policies from the past.
Unless someone can regroup forces in the centre pretty quickly and efficiently. I wouldn't bet on that just now, but that would be nice.

In reply to RomTheBear:

Its not just the conservatives that are split down the middle on Europe - Labour has the same problem. So each one will lurch from side to side depending on who is winning the internal power struggles at any given time.


It is the manifestation of the Economist's theory that the new politics is between internationalists and nationalists, not socialism and capitalism.

In reply to Bob Hughes:

In both camps, the progressists can't win it seems to me. Too few, too scared, and it's not their immediate interest.


Absolutely agree. And that's exactly the issue, our political class is old and they do not represent this new split. Therefore to a large extent it is their interest to isolate britain from Europe, and keep it in the past, where these old splits still make sense.

In reply to jkarran:

I suppose we've had a year of propaganda that it is the wll of the people etc, which will have built up a real head of expectation....meaning people don't want to go against the stated flow. Perhaps the Brexiteers biggest triumph (and another lie) is making this reality.