/ Brexit Recession Joy

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Shani - on 10 Oct 2017

Looks like Brexiteers are looking forward to the decade of recession about to hit us, on the grounds it'll build our character! (http://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html?m=1)

"Now that we know there isn't going to be a deal we can at least narrow down some of the possibilities of what post-Brexit Britain looks like. 

In the first year or so we are going to lose a lot of manufacturing. Virtually all JIT export manufacturing will fold inside a year. Initially we will see food prices plummet but this won't last. Domestic agriculture won't be able to compete and we'll see a gradual decline of UK production. UK meats will be premium produce and no longer affordable to most.

Once food importers have crushed all UK competition they will gradually raise their prices, simply because they can. Meanwhile wages will stay depressed and because of the collapse of disposable income and availability of staff, we can probably expect the service sector to take a big hit thus eliminating all the jobs that might provide a supplementary income. Across the board we will see prices rising.
...

Eventually things will settle down and we will get used to the new order of things. My gut instinct tells me that culturally it will be a vast improvement on the status quo. There will be more reasons to cooperate and more need to congregate. I expect to see a cultural revolution where young people actually start doing surprising and reckless things again rather than becoming tedious hipsters drinking energy drinks in pop-up cereal bar book shops or whatever it is they do these days. We'll be back to the days when students had to be frugal and from their resourcefulness manage to produce interesting things and events."
Post edited at 20:07
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Dave the Rave on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

Sounds like business as usual for the working/non working class under Tory rule. I won't lose too much sleep over you're depressing post.
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stevieb - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:
This may all happen, but if you want brexiteers to change their mind, you're much more likely to succeed with less dramatic views. Also, few people work for exporting manufacturers so they don't think border problems for goods and food will affect them.
Foreign holidays are now more expensive.
Food is now more expensive.
Electronics are now more expensive.
Don't know if cars are?
If interest rates are forced up, mortgages will be more expensive, it house prices rises will slow.
Post edited at 20:21
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Stichtplate on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

You obviously hadn’t noticed, but post globalisation, British Manufacturing has become so niche that I’m expecting pop up hipster factories to start appearing any day now. As for depressed wages, check out the figures over the last decade.
toad - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Dave the Rave:
Yes, but, but, but....... THAT APOSTROPHE!!!

Four o'clock in the morning, it will be there, haunting my dreams
1
Dave the Rave on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to toad:

> Yes, but, but, but....... THAT APOSTROPHE!!!

> Four o'clock in the morning, it will be there, haunting my dreams

My apostrophe?
BnB - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

That blog isn't what I'd call economically literate. Did you post it to highlight the ignorance of the author or, heaven forbid, because you agree with his vision?
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Ramblin dave - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to BnB:

> That blog isn't what I'd call economically literate.

Well, the author is an editor at leavehq.com, so what would you expect?
1
john arran - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

The bad things are all reported expectations. The good things are all "My gut instinct tells me".

Could there be a clearer example of dogma over reason?

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Shani - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to stevieb:

> This may all happen, but if you want brexiteers to change their mind, you're much more likely to succeed with less dramatic views.

The blog post i link to and quoted from is BY a BREXITEER. Why would i want to change ANY Brexiteers mind?
1
Shani - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to BnB:

> Did you post it to highlight the ignorance of the author or, heaven forbid, because you agree with his vision?

Neither. As i put in the OP, North is overjoyed in the face if economic self-damge because he feels it'll be character building. It's a curious argument i thought I'd share. (I do wonder if Leave would have won if they'd been open about this outcome from the start).
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stevieb - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

Oops missed that, got fed up with the relentless negativity long before the end
Lusk - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

What a load of speculative drivel!
Who the hell is Pete North anyway?
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Shani - on 10 Oct 2017
In reply to Lusk:

> What a load of speculative drivel!

You should gave heard his reasoning behind why we should Brexit!

> Who the hell is Pete North anyway?

High profile Leave campaigner.
Big Ger - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:
How wonderful! I can just imagine all the remainers fapping away like dogs on heat over all that unqualified and unsubstantiated, crystal-ball-derived, bad news...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxqvwkmTNy8
Post edited at 03:17
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Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> How wonderful! I can just imagine all the remainers fapping away like dogs on heat over all that unqualified and unsubstantiated, crystal-ball-derived, bad news...

Whatever gets you hard Biggie!

Seriously though, why single out Remainers? This is a Brexiteer's opinion, and a high profile Brexiteer at that.

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Big Ger - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

> Whatever gets you hard Biggie!

Well you don't ;-)

> Seriously though, why single out Remainers? This is a Brexiteer's opinion, and a high profile Brexiteer at that.

I would hardly consider the negative, unsubstantiated, crystal-ball-derived, bollocks spouted would be appealing to anyone with a Brexit tilt, would you?

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Dave Perry - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

It is no use criticising North's opinions, any more it is any other opinion regarding leaving/staying in the EU.

I do not recall one 'expert' predicting the issues we've now got ourself into.

2
andyfallsoff - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Dave Perry:

> I do not recall one 'expert' predicting the issues we've now got ourself into.

Perhaps not the specifics, but the general point that it would be hard, and we wouldn't be likely to get s great deal, was made repeatedly.
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Andy Hardy on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Dave the Rave:

Your / you're

Former, 2nd person possessive
Latter, contraction of "you are"

It annoys* those of a pedantic disposition to confuse the 2


* or gives them a chance to show off, I'm never too sure ;)
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summo on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to andyfallsoff:
> Perhaps not the specifics, but the general point that it would be hard, and we wouldn't be likely to get s great deal, was made repeatedly.

No deal will be perfect. But ploughing money into the eu' s ever growing budget isn't perfect either.

In a decades time Spain could be in civil war, the next Balkans, Greece will have finally default on its debt, Poland, Czech rep and hungary will still be taking the pi$$ and the Euro and eu internal finances collapsing the UK will be glad it's not so tied to Brussels.....

Or the eu thrives, over comes the growth of a few billion people in the far East.. then the UK has a big trading partner next door.

Either way Brexit is an insure policy for the coming deacdes, rather than blindly pushing on thinking only of the next couple of years.
Post edited at 08:16
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Dave the Rave on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Andy Hardy:

Yes! Predictive text. Sorry!
andyfallsoff - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:

Even assuming your apocalyptic predictions for the EU were correct (and ignoring whether equivalent concerns might apply in respect of the other countries we could replace trade with, e.g. the US) why do you think that the cost of being an EU member at that time would exceed the costs we're incurring now?

Agreeing to incur massive upfront costs and damaging our existing international relationships will be a definite, large cost. It isn't a good insurance policy to incur big certain costs unless the events that they insure against are certain to be bigger (if they occur).
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Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Well you don't ;-)

Now THAT hurts!
Big Ger - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

It would if it did...
summo on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to andyfallsoff:
> Even assuming your apocalyptic predictions for the EU were correct (and ignoring whether equivalent concerns might apply in respect of the other countries we could replace trade with, e.g. the US) why do you think that the cost of being an EU member at that time would exceed the costs we're incurring now?

Maybe the costs will be the same? But say with CAP which represents 40% of the total EU budget, the UK can have a scheme that benefits the farmers who both need and deserve it most?

The same with fisheries, h&s, etc.. why have a generic one size fits whoever shouts the loudest (or lobbies the Eu) most?

Not everything is simple as direct monetary value, it's a question of who get a the money and where down the chain it goes.

> Agreeing to incur massive upfront costs and damaging our existing international relationships will be a definite, large cost.

These upfront costs are only what we would incur during the current monetary phase which I think ends in 2019/20, if we remained. If the eu wants to fund more projects beyond that, it's irrelevant to the UK.

> It isn't a good insurance policy to incur big certain costs unless the events that they insure against are certain to be bigger (if they occur).

Unless Spain accepts devolved government for the Catalans, and then the Basques I can't see it ending peacefully.
Can the eu afford to right off Greek debt?
Is the eu even capable of reigning in the eastern bloc countries?
Post edited at 10:13
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andyfallsoff - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:

> Maybe the costs will be the same?

Or there might not be any apocalypse at all, or any cost to any of these things. Why would a Spanish civil war cost us money as an EU member but not if we're outside the EU?

> But say with CAP which represents 40% of the total EU budget, the UK can have a scheme that benefits the farmers who both need and deserve it most?

> The same with fisheries, h&s, etc.. why have a generic one size fits whoever shouts the loudest (or lobbies the Eu) most?

Do you think we will end up with a scheme where those who need it most get it? Or do you think it is more likely that, outside the EU, we either mimic what was there before (the most frequently used approach to date), or just go full free market - meaning farms would need to scale up to be competitive. Bye-bye hedgerows, diversity of species...? It seems to me about that bad outcomes are more likely at this stage.

> Not everything is simple as direct monetary value, it's a question of who get a the money and where down the chain it goes.

> These upfront costs are only what we would incur during the current monetary phase which I think ends in 2019/20, if we remained. If the eu wants to fund more projects beyond that, it's irrelevant to the UK.

> > It isn't a good insurance policy to incur big certain costs unless the events that they insure against are certain to be bigger (if they occur).

> Unless Spain accepts devolved government for the Catalans, and then the Basques I can't see it ending peacefully.

Again - why would that cost us money as an EU member that is wouldn't otherwise?

> Can the eu afford to right off Greek debt?

The UK doesn't have much exposure to the Greek debt that may or may not be written off - I think it was £1.7bn through IMF contributions in 2015. This won't change as a result of Brexit because we will still be an IMF member.

> Is the eu even capable of reigning in the eastern bloc countries?

Will it become better or worse at it if those same countries see members leaving?
Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:
Well, at the prospect of the UK standing on its own two feet, bravely and fiercely facing the world, our 'special friends' have imposed tariffs of 300% on Bombardier's C-Series plane...

If only we were part of some trading bloc that gave us a bit of clout.
Post edited at 11:07
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davidbeynon on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:
So to summarise:

Mass unemployment, hunger & loss of free healthcare followed by a humiliating crawl back to the EU so we can beg for scraps from the table... But it's all OK because lots of people he doesn't like will end up getting screwed as well and the ones who are left will be full of mythical blitz spirit.

Right or not, he comes over as a grade A nob.
Post edited at 11:11
Paulos - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

Ah the vocal minority...thanks for your opinion. Fact is the FTSE-250 share index is up 25% since brexit vote, rates of employment are high. We will still be European by virtue of geography, just not wrapped under another layer of government.
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davidbeynon on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Paulos:

It's not hard for the apparent value of the stock market to go up when it is measured in pounds. It doesn't look so rosy when you measure it in hard currency.
Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Paulos:
> Ah the vocal minority...thanks for your opinion. Fact is the FTSE-250 share index is up 25% since brexit vote, rates of employment are high. We will still be European by virtue of geography, just not wrapped under another layer of government.

Two words beginning with "P" came to mind when reading your post. One of them was "Productivity". Without consideration of productivity (and by consequence growth), what you have written is largely vacuous in terms of backing your position in an economic manner - like admiring a suit on a corpse, "My god he's well dressed!" - "Yeah, but he day-ed!"

With regard to "wrapped under another layer of government" - you are aware that we are seeking to DUPLICATE that layer of government so that we can trade with the EU. And in fact will have to duplicate that function for every country that we seek a trade deal with. That is the nature of trade deals, a loss of soverignty is implicit.
Post edited at 12:08
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Paulos - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to davidbeynon:

Pounds is a hard currency, what were you thinking: gold, bitcoin or bananas? I mentioned the FTSE-250 (instead of the foreign-income dependent FTSE-100) as most of these companies get their income in pounds...god i can't believe i just wasted 2 minutes of my day here
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andyfallsoff - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Paulos:

The FT did a good piece recently where it explained why they FTSE 250 isn't as good a barometer of the UK economy as some say (it still includes a lot of non-UK entities, including mining / commodities and finance companies, that aren't exposed to the UK economy and skew the index; the performance of the FTSE 250 hasn't historically tracked the UK economy performance so why would it now)?

However, if you have the same approach as every other brexiter I've ever spoken to, I fully expect you to ignore this approach and double down on your belief (that is human nature after all). So perhaps I shouldn't have wasted 2 mins on this discussion either.
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davidbeynon on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Paulos:

Was. It's called the past tense. I remember the good old days when the UK had prospects and a credit rating that wasn't a joke but they are behind us. Well done.

What the pound is now, is a mere 1.32 dollars and falling.

Pete Pozman - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:
Apparently the Treasury has allocated £415 million to deal with current preparations for Brexit. The hard Brexiteers are now going bananas at Hammond because he won't set aside billions to enable a hard Brexit. For God's sake what is this all for?! It is already costing us £1.5 billion to pay for the unionists bung.
Where's all the money coming from and why?
Wake up England!
Post edited at 12:27
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no_more_scotch_eggs - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Paulos:
...god i can't believe i just wasted 2 minutes of my day here

well, feel free not to waste any more of your time. bye bye.
Post edited at 12:32
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Bob Kemp - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:

> Maybe the costs will be the same? But say with CAP which represents 40% of the total EU budget, the UK can have a scheme that benefits the farmers who both need and deserve it most?


Hmm. Seems the farmers' advisory board doesn't think much of the Brexit possibilities - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41570648 .

The NFU wants some kind of transitional arrangement - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41570648 Doesn't seem likely now.
jkarran - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Dave Perry:

> I do not recall one 'expert' predicting the issues we've now got ourself into.

You don't? Where were you last summer, the dark side of the moon?
jk
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Dax H - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

Someone must have faith in our economy.
Just got back from a meeting with my accountant and my turnover April 16 to April 17 is up by 22% and most of that is an increase in new sales of industrial air compressors
davidbeynon on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Dax H:

Not surprised you are doing well. Hot air has been in demand this year
Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to davidbeynon:

> Not surprised you are doing well. Hot air has been in demand this year

Ta da! Bsh!
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summo on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

> Well, at the prospect of the UK standing on its own two feet, bravely and fiercely facing the world, our 'special friends' have imposed tariffs of 300% on Bombardier's C-Series plane...
> If only we were part of some trading bloc that gave us a bit of clout.

Those tariffs are more to do with the on going USA/ Canada trade arguments. The UKs position is largely irrelevant to it.
summo on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Bob Kemp:

You think farmer boards are made up of small farmers doing 60 or 70hrs a week to just stay afloat, or super 1000+ plus hectare farms, where the farmers wellies never actually touch the soil?
John2 - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

What the OBR actually said is, 'The hiatus in productivity growth has now lasted for more than a decade, and some of the earlier explanations for its weakness seem less applicable today'. i.e. our poor productivity record is the result of the financial crisis, not the Brexit vote.
jkarran - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

This is just the desperately convoluted attempts of a man who's identity and ego will not tolerate the admission of his mistake. Expect to see and hear a lot of this guff in the coming years. It's pitiful really but I'm struggling to give a sh*t.
jk
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summo on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to andyfallsoff:

> Or there might not be any apocalypse at all, or any cost to any of these things. Why would a Spanish civil war cost us money as an EU member but not if we're outside the EU?

Because Spain is net receiver of eu funds. The more turmoil there, the less private investment and greater likelihood of eu funding being required in the future.


> Do you think we will end up with a scheme where those who need it most get it? Or do you think it is more likely that, outside the EU, we either mimic what was there before (the most frequently used approach to date), or just go full free market - meaning farms would need to scale up to be competitive. Bye-bye hedgerows, diversity of species...? It seems to me about that bad outcomes are more likely at this stage.

The early sign already suggest that farmers will be paid only for environmental measures and only once they are under way, not in advance. So if anything it will mean more hedgerows, but also zero money for large barren estates that effectively do very little. What's not to like?


> The UK doesn't have much exposure to the Greek debt that may or may not be written off - I think it was £1.7bn through IMF contributions in 2015. This won't change as a result of Brexit because we will still be an IMF member.

French and German banks are tied up a little too, as is the ECB, so we won't be literally bank rolling any debt write off; either directly or more likely indirectly.

> Will it become better or worse at it if those same countries see members leaving?

The UK remaining or exiting won't impact the eastern block nations policy over things like accepting refugees. It might stop some of their workers travelling to the UK. At the present they enjoy all the eu perks, but refuse to honour the other eu commitments.
Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to John2:

> What the OBR actually said is, 'The hiatus in productivity growth has now lasted for more than a decade, and some of the earlier explanations for its weakness seem less applicable today'. i.e. our poor productivity record is the result of the financial crisis, not the Brexit vote.

I wouldn't disagree. My point stands that trumpeting "the FTSE-250 share index is up 25% since brexit vote, rates of employment are high" is meaningless without context of productivity.
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Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to jkarran:

> This is just the desperately convoluted attempts of a man who's identity and ego will not tolerate the admission of his mistake. Expect to see and hear a lot of this guff in the coming years.

What do you expect, he's a Brexiteer!

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Bob Kemp - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:
I don’t know who the Board spoke to (and neither do you). Instead of trying to discredit the report, why not look at the contents? The conclusion states that high performing farms will be better able to cope with Brexit than lower-performing farms. Which are the ones you’re talking about.
Post edited at 15:16
summo on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Bob Kemp:

> I don’t know who the Board spoke to (and neither do you). Instead of trying to discredit the report, why not look at the contents? The conclusion states that high performing farms will be better able to cope with Brexit than lower-performing farms. Which are the ones you’re talking about.

But a new and better scheme can turn it around, if the government funds the right elements. If you only measure a farm's performance by its balance sheet or cost of production; pence to a litre of milk, or kilo of beef etc... then the UK won't ever improve its farming environment.

A small one man band farm that scrapes by now with a few head of cattle, on rough grazing, is almost certainly doing more for the environment, than some massive East Anglia arable operation which squeezes every penny out of ground. It's the arable unit that would be described as high performing in production terms though.

A fresh start could be great for smaller farmers, the environment, plus also bring into line the supermarkets who persistently put the squeeze on farmers. Anyway, time to head out with the kids and dog to see our cows, on our under performing, but species diverse farm.

Ps. I will find the report, as it's not impossible that I know some of the farms or farmers referenced.
neilh - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:

Do you honestly think that any future Uk govt is going to be able to fund this sort thing? Is it a vote winner compared with say revamping primary healthcare or jobs in high value aerospace or funding electric car development.

Cloud cuckoo land.
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Bob Kemp - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:

I sympathise with your hopes but I’m not optimistic about the chances. Not only are there the funding issues neilh raises, but I suspect that agri-business in its various forms will take advantage of the inevitable loosening of the regulatory framework to cement its position. Small environmentally aware farmers are just as likely to find themselves squeezed out.
Dave Perry - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to jkarran:

Were these the same 'experts' that were telling everyone that there was going to be a few million going into the NHS if we left??
Dauphin on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Pete Pozman:

Where's all the money coming from and why?

from the usual source - UK PLC credit card - sorry kids we f*cked up, time to pay up for the next couple of generations

Darkly funny though - from the fiscally on top of their shit party.

No Brexit Deal is what the far right headbangers in the conservative party always wanted.

D

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Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

My goodness. We've given the biggest economic and political problem of all time to the likes of May, Fox and Davis, and it's causing alarm amongst Brexiteers. Who'd have thought it?

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/peering-over-the-cliff-edge-why-dominic-cummings-fears-b...

"At a “Leave means Leave” event at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester, Owen Paterson, a prominent Eurosceptic, looked with glee over the cliff edge: “If the European Union is still messing around by Christmas,” Britain should “give notice, on 1st January, that we will be moving to WTO rules.”

This would be a catastrophic error. Paul Daly, a Fellow in Law at Cambridge, tells me that a no-deal outcome “would lead to economic chaos.” The UK “would adopt, overnight, third-country status in the eyes of the European Union.” The result would be mayhem. “Planes would not take off, nuclear fuel would not be imported and haulage traffic to the Continent would grind to a halt.” The man who drafted Article 50, John Kerr, also told me recently that “flights in and out of continental Europe [will] stop unless we negotiate some replacement for the regime we’re members of.” It’s no exaggeration, then, to say that the new Brexit Britain that is supposed to be soaring into the skies would find itself grounded on the tarmac."
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Gordon Stainforth - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

'The slurry is so fluid and the gradient so steep it could not possibly stay in position in the winter or during heavy periods of rain.’

It's quite incredible to me that two people on this UKC website (of presumably intelligent climbers, ffs!) have already 'disliked' your reporting of warnings about Brexit. It reminds me so horribly, in retrospect, of the many unheeded and ridiculed warnings of a famous disaster in south Wales in the mid-1960s (three years before it actually happened).
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Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
The great irony for me is that they're not disliking Remainer socio-economic forecasts, but Brexiteer socio-economic forecasts!

Of course, many Brexiteers are now arse covering - first they tried to blame remainers, but now they're blaming fellow Brexiteers - to sav their own skin.
Post edited at 21:31
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Gordon Stainforth - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

Irony is completely lost on them, Shani.
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Shani - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
> Irony is completely lost on them, Shani.

Indeed. We seem to have attracted a compulsive disliker for our efforts, to boot!
Post edited at 21:36
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Gordon Stainforth - on 11 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:

The grim side of it is that they'll one day have to answer for it. I agree with Matthew Parris on this – amazingly, because I would never have believed that one day I'd be agreeing with him – that this is a criminal act. Justice is a necessary and unpleasant thing that I'd rather not think about, yet the perpetrators of this dishonest, life-destroying nonsense must never be allowed to get away with it.
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summo on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to neilh:
> Do you honestly think that any future Uk govt is going to be able to fund this sort thing? Is it a vote winner compared with say revamping primary healthcare or jobs in high value aerospace or funding electric car development.

A solution for CAP has to be found. The current system where 40% of EU money subsidises food production and land ownership isn't working. Most farmers aren't benefiting from it, they are simply surviving because of it. I agree it will be a bun fight for the money, especially as food on the UK supermarket shelves is selling for 10-20% below what it should be, if everyone in the chin was able to make a reasonable living.

> Cloud cuckoo land.

And the idea of current CAP makes sense?

Yes I'm optimistic, it's the only way in life.
Post edited at 06:28
Big Ger - on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:
> And the idea of current CAP makes sense?

In a Laurel and Hardy universe it may...

The European Commission is withholding €1.1 billion of CAP repayments from France over the misspending of agricultural subsidies between 2008 and 2012. EURACTIV France reports.

This kind of refusal by the European Commission to pay out – under the CAP it is the state that subsidises farmers before being reimbursed by the Commission – is not uncommon, and occurs across the European Union.

Brussels is currently recovering funds from 15 EU countries including Romania (€128 million), Italy (€97 million), and Belgium (€60 million).

Post edited at 06:10
summo on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Unless you are in Scotland, it's devolved. Many farmers were into the next financial year before the government administration managed to get organised and issue it, by which stage many farms were borrowing in lieu of the payment just to avoid bankruptcy.
neilh - on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:

Totally agree that CAP is ridicuous. By the same token the Uk govt ( of whatever party)has always been arguing historically its ridiculous and should be stopped.

If any farmer thinks that the uk govt is going to be spending billions to carry on with a version of a UK CAP in the future, then they must be seriously living in cloud cuckoo land.

Personally I think it will destroy small farms which have not modernised.At the same time those farmers probably voted Out ( I know a few who voted that way). So they have in reality little to moan about.Harsh I know.
summo on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to neilh:
> If any farmer thinks that the uk govt is going to be spending billions to carry on with a version of a UK CAP in the future, then they must be seriously living in cloud cuckoo land.

I don't think many are in that land.

> Personally I think it will destroy small farms which have not modernised.At the same time those farmers probably voted Out ( I know a few who voted that way). So they have in reality little to moan about.Harsh I know.

Whilst there will be inefficient farms. We bought one in sweden. Apart from the forest machines, we bought a 40year old hay wagon, which for a short while became the newest piece of kit here.

I see the UK farm problem being primarily the very low price of food. I know I'll get screamed at about poverty and food banks, but UK food is very cheap. Look at in season veg and per kilo prices. The cost of a frozen chicken, it's a couple of quid. The UK population needs to value UK farmers and farms more. No other sector allows the consumer to decide its retail prices, farmers are hammered daily by the likes of Tescos.

The smaller generational farm is the one everyone should support , as they are much more likely to do the environmental elements, instead of just thinking of this year's bottom line.
Post edited at 09:30
pasbury on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to Shani:
I have three questions for those who want to leave the EU:

Do you predict the UK income from tax receipts to increase or decrease over the next five years and why?

How will we protect UK producers (I'm mainly thinking of food) from cheap imports?

Do you predict that investment from outside the UK for our manufacturing industries will increase or decrease over the next 10 years and why?
Post edited at 09:40
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seankenny - on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:

> I see the UK farm problem being primarily the very low price of food. I know I'll get screamed at about poverty and food banks, but UK food is very cheap. Look at in season veg and per kilo prices. The cost of a frozen chicken, it's a couple of quid.

This is very true. But however cheap it is, significant numbers of British people can't afford to buy it. That's because pay has stagnated and benefits (both in and out of work) have decreased. Will Brexit help ameliorate those issues? It's going to hammer the most productive parts of the UK economy and decrease the tax base. So no, it's really not a solution.

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neilh - on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to summo:

The small generation farm has to rebuild around selling premium products ( which is what they are doing). These farms are springing up everywhere selling " artisan" type food.

Good on them. T

That is what they should be doing. Instead of competing for the low value stuff where they will get killed.
summo on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to neilh:
> The small generation farm has to rebuild around selling premium products ( which is what they are doing). These farms are springing up everywhere selling " artisan" type food.

I agree with added value. But it requires some investment and sufficient return long term. CAP in its current version has only being going a couple of years and it's about to be reviewed again. A farm that is currently reliant on cap for a small margin of profit, can't plan long term when a 20year investment loan could see 3 or 4 versions of CAP. If the farmer is selling food at its real unsubsidized price then they know and they have more control of there margins. So whatever UK system comes in it needs to be stable (horrible word now, but can't think of better).

> That is what they should be doing. Instead of competing for the low value stuff where they will get killed.

I agree, but average Joe wants a kilo of cheap beef mince for £1-2 in Tescos, even though carcass weight value is £3/kilo. Us human are greedy we'd rather a kilo of low quality, then half that amount of quality.

Overall I don't see a solution. People don't value food enough, they want to keep their money for phones, clothes, beer, holidays, cars....
Post edited at 12:06
jkarran - on 12 Oct 2017
In reply to Dave Perry:

> Were these the same 'experts' that were telling everyone that there was going to be a few million going into the NHS if we left??

No. The overwhelming majority who said the EU will prioritise unity and principles over trade, that we will be negotiating from a position of profound weakness and that brexit will make most of us poorer and less secure.

Perhaps you were filtering your input to cosset your beliefs?
jk
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