UKC

According to an article in today's Guardian the Met Office is predicting a La Nina (El Nino's little sister) event this winter. Apparently the last time this happened was 2010, the year of two winters as I christened it.

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Here's hoping!

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Time to dust off my studded MTB tyres...bought after the last big winter and not yet used.

In reply to Rog Wilko:


10 and 17 are also the sum of the first n prime numbers, where n>2. So yes, I expect you're right.

In reply to Rog Wilko:A mild,wet n windy event more like

In reply to girlymonkey:


I've knackered my hand, suggesting a bit more likelyhood of a great winter early on, then disappearing early...

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Snow has fallen early in the Dolomites, just like 2010 as well.

In reply to Rog Wilko:

just for fun spot the difference between these 2 shots, credit of Glencoe ski webcam.

https://highland-webcams.com/glencoe/main-basin/2017/11/16#1510846923
https://highland-webcams.com/glencoe/main-basin/2016/11/16#1479292563

not saying anything yet!!

In reply to pass and peak:
Yeah, you're right ! Definitely whiter this year...

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Yawn!!!! This comes up regularly. And regularly wrong.

In any case there's few berries on my holly so its going to be mild.

In reply to Dave Perry:

I wasn't talking about a report in the Daily Excess!
And I've never seen more berries on the holly than there are around here this year. Not that I'm too sanguine about the predictive capability of holly trees.

In reply to Rog Wilko:


Doesn't tree behaviour mostly predict what happened in the past?

In reply to nufkin:


You can't predict something that's already happened. Or perhaps I've missed the joke

I have read today that there will be 100 days of snow this winter.

In reply to nufkin:


Exactly my point!

In reply to Phil Lyon:

And I'm sure there shall be, somewhere.

But not here.

T.

In reply to Rog Wilko:

FWIW Heavy Whaley in his recent ' Step up to Winter ' safety Talks predicted a cold winter this year.
(No idea what Heavy's track record on weather forecast is though. )

In reply to Rog Wilko:

There's gorse in bloom in the field next door and daffs in bloom on my way to work. Sea temp is half a degree above average. Hundreds of Portuguese Man o'war are being washed up (my mate's never known this and he's in his 60's). So, the weather/climate's a bit abnormal but not wintry here. The ski season has started in German resorts though, so hopefully I can build and sleep in a quinzhee in a field outside my in-laws' place near Munich over xmas again .

In reply to Jim C:

I have faith in Heavy.

In reply to Rog Wilko:
The guy who does weather without technology has been predicting a cold and snowy winter - http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/index.html

In reply to Rog

Out in short sleeves today.

In reply to Rog Wilko:

There are roses in bloom in Central Scotland...

In reply to aln:


Is that a secret coded greeting for spies?

In reply to Lion Bakes:

I'm wearing shorts in Devon

In reply to Ghastly Rubberfeet:

Shhh....

In reply to Rog Wilko:

My pine cones have opened up and the seaweed has taken a turn for the better.

Squirrels are playing with their nuts. And the rest of the squirrel population are busy burying their nuts because there were few acorns this year..

There's been a big increase in Hawfinches, Bramblings, fieldfares & Redwings, this year and the Blackbirds have stripped the holly of berries.

Greylags have been flying south earlier this year, but Black Throated Divers have only just arrived off shore.

The Oaks have lost their leaves later than the early winter of 2010 but this is confused with the better winter of 2009 when the Beech leaves went first. Now they are still on the trees - (Except in Hannah's garden where they still hang on).

The mice haven't got in the house yet. I guess this is due to Bouldery Bits and his shorts.

And you just can't rely on Gorse as a predictor of good or bad weather. "When the gorse isn't flowering, kissings gone out of fashion" as the old country saying goes.

Yes, I'm going to read these signs as an indication that winter is upon us, but not quite yet. Meanwhile I'll look at my weather app and see what the BBC forecast is for the day. (Should be good as the stars are out).

In reply to bouldery bits:


But let's face it we are all a bit weird down here

In reply to lucozade:


An interesting site - his prediction for this year was getting me excited, until I looked at last winters prediction, which was also for long hard & cold...

In reply to Wainers44:


Indeed we are!

In reply to Rog Wilko:

I've just had my 5th day with some snow cover in the hills in the past fortnight - Beinn Eighe ,Liathach, , Stob Ghabhar, Ben More, and The Saddle. Ok - so only a heavy dusting in most cases- but forecast for West Highlands for the next week is suggesting more snowfall. Plenty 0f routes being reported in the Winter Conditions section. IT's worth getting aff yer erse and heading for the hills

In reply to gavmac:

I'm heading to the Cairngorms tomorrow to have a look see what we have now.

In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

Meh, took the train from Aviemore to inverness today, looked like a dusting in the gorms.

In reply to Jim C:

Camped at Loch Morlich right now, might see you there!

In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

Spot on brer. I've also enjoyed some lovely snow covered ridge traverses over the last couple of weekends on Ben Lui and in the Lawers group. Conditions on the NE face of Stob Ghabhar today defo felt mair like winter rather than a cosmetic dusting. No bad for mid November...there's talking the talk, and there's walking the walk....sitting oan yer erse is over rated

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Quite possibly , yes.
Last year I bought a new pair of axes so it was pretty inevitable that winter would be cancelled. I, have, therefore not bought anything that could be even vaguely described as winter related since then. Maybe, just to be on the safe side, I should buy shorts, vests and flip flops.

In reply to Joak:

Looks like I just missed you on Stob Ghabhar - Saturday 18th.. Certainly mair than a cosmetic dusting. I met nobody on the hill - although as usual I was a wee bit late.

In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

Haha, aye we were there early - as usual. To shelter us from the strong wind blowing first thing we dropped down to the Coirein Lochan then up the right hand side of the NE face, topping out on Lochan Buttress. We were very pleasantly surprised to find firm frozen snow and iced up slabs. We also never met or saw another soul aw day, oor crampon points the only blemish in the otherwise virgin snow.

In reply to Joak:

That explains the crampon Scratches I saw - did you go down the Aonach Eagach ridge? Thought I heard voices As I was coming uo the coire from the waterfalls - but nobody there when I reached the ridge. Was on top about 2.30

In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

Aye we descended via the Aonach Eagach, otherwise we would have finally met. There was the tail end of a snow shower blowing through as we left the summit, probably aboot the back o yin. We seem to gravitate towards the same venues around this time of year. Great minds think alike.

In reply to Joak:

Like you, I stravaig aboot a bit in winter -so will keep a lookout for you. I was surprised only to see your footprints on the hill. At least a dozen cars at the Victoria Bridge car park when I got there - wonder where they all went? Thpught there might be a GUMC group at the Clashgour hot but it was locked and barred.

In reply to The Watch of Barrisdale:

Their loss oor gain eh I retire oan ma sixtieth birthday in December, ma winter shenanigans will be correspondingly wider ranging....

In reply to Dave Perry:
Our winter-predicting mouse has come in from the chill in Cumbria already. Bugger keeps waking me up.

In reply to bouldery bits:

"I'm wearing shorts in Devon"

What you get up to in the privacy of your own home is nobody's business but yours!!

I'm in Edinburgh, and it's f*****g Baltic!!!

In reply to Rog Wilko:

I've heard of a character by the name of Jon Snow, who apparently has something to say on the matter.

Does anyone know how reliable he is regarding the onset of Winter?

In reply to Rog Wilko:

While I try to not to get too excited this early, I have already had more good snow days in Scotland this season than I did all of last winter so I am quietly hopeful and if it does all melt into nothing then at least I have already done better than last year!

In reply to Rog Wilko:

So what are the sceptics thinking now?

https://www.ukclimbing.com/forums/t.php?n=674893&v=1

In reply to Rog Wilko:

This skeptic is thinking that he is heading to Scotland in 11 days which gives the snow more than a week to melt.

In reply to davidbeynon:

Don't despair - it's been the best start to the winter for years, and although there's been a thaw for the last 3 days -and will be until Wednesday - winter is coming back with a vengeance from Thursday with more snowfall and much lower temperatures. Strong signs that this might persist beyond mid-December. - at least in Scotland. 50;50 that it might persist up to and through Christmas .

In reply to nufkin:


Shhh! It's folklore.

In reply to Rog Wilko:

For info: I was on one of the Drumochter munros on Monday, 04/11/2017 (A' Bhuidheanach Bheag). There was VERY little snow (just a little bit on the lee slopes) and it was quite mild for the time of year.

However I believe the forecast was for it to get quite a bit colder, so we may get some soon!

In reply to Rog Wilko:

Snowing here. Yay

In reply to Rog Wilko:

An interesting opinion here, based on La Nina and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, but as George Mac would tell us: it's all in the weasel's entrails.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8537-early-thoughts-on-win...

Snow to the sea in Fort William this morning, not much more down on The Ben though from what I can see. Could be some sport on Sunday though if the sun comes out.

In reply to Rich W Parker:

Ben Nevis today: https://www.facebook.com/alan.halewood/posts/10155198080332081?notif_id=151...