UKC

Say Brexit's happened in whatever form. The UK is getting steadily relatively poorer, its reputation much reduced. A second Scottish indy ref is won. What is the populist right's next move? Presumably rich electoral veins in blaming tbe EU(still), immigrants (still) , remain votes etc. Do we get our own version of Trump or similar ? 

probably start building a lot of tanks and then think about invading our neighbours?

Children will be allowed to work again for meagre wages to make us competitive, food banks will be replaced by Victorian style workhouses, the unemployed will be criminalised.  Jacob will be elevated to the status of a demi-god.

I see Hunt is getting in early 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/23/uk-public-will-blame-eu-fo...

As I've already said about two years ago, the next move is a paranoid Brexit, blame the EU for self inflicted ills, and portray EU citizens in the U.K. as "the enemy within" (they already are seen as such to a significant degree, unfortunately)

How does Northern Ireland fit into your cheerful scenario?

Just asking as it might affect the rest of the UK or what’s left of it.

You tell me. Some sort of return to violence doesn't seem far fetched. Possibly Irish unification (although does Eire actually want this??) 

It’s your scenario.

Mine has NI remaining in the UK along with Wales and England.

All of them enjoying spending the large amount of money that they’ve saved not keeping Scotland afloat.

Maybe I could advertise that idea somewhere prominent.

How about the side of a bus!

Otherwise known as the "stab in the back" myth *. A favourite theme of fascists and demagogues everywhere.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth

It's already happening, the Tax Payers Alliance are now front and centre in many political discussions on the BBC in the way UKIP have been previously. Obviously the overseas aid budget is toast. 

How? That's looking far from certain to me.

What? Scotland leaving the Union won't leave the remaining nations better of, it's this ridiculous zero sum mentality that underpins the mess we're getting ourselves into.

jk

Total disenchantment with traditional parties/politics, No deal leading to no divorce payment leading to a vengeful/punitive EU, a right wing press stoking up feelings of British victimhood.

Such an outcome seems increasingly credible and could well lead to very dark times ahead. Something both sides would be wise to take heed of.

Remind me how much Scotland received in economic support from the rest of the UK last year.

There’s a reason that the Scots voted to remain in the UK and it wasn’t a love of the English.

Do you honestly think in such narrow terms? You think a financial deficit in one year trumps centuries of cultural, economic, political collaboration. 

Scotland, NI, and Wales are all subsidised by England. I don't know where you live, but using your logic England would be financially better off if the union was entirely dissolved.

And London and the South-East subsidises northern England, so maybe split that off too? See where this is going yet?

Edit: inserted "financially"

It was you who suggested the scenario where the Scots had left the Union.

If they did leave, which should be their choice, would they be leaving to maintain their economic or cultural status.

Damn, you’ve uncovered my plan!

I imagine a the key new factor would be maintaining membership of the EU, wouldn't you? 

Probably, thus forgoing years of political, social, economic  and cultural cooperation for economic benefits.

It's probably also necessary to remind you too just how much aid Scotland receives from the EU. According to the latest SNP website: 'Between 2014 and 2020, Scotland will receive over €900 million of funding through European Structural Fund programmes.'

And here's a map (from 2016) of the benefits from the EU to different parts of the UK:

https://bit.ly/2LHvDv5

Remind me where the EU gets its money from.

OK, in case you have seriously forgotten: 27 member states of the EU. It's called an attempt at distribution of wealth.

And one reason why some people voted to leave.

Fair enough, I suppose, if you don't believe in any element of socialism whatever.

It’s a very petty point and probably a childish one too but I’d settle for some redistribution of wealth as long as the signs said ‘ funded by Germany ‘, ‘funded by France’, etc.

No, it's a pool. Funded by the EU. Or, I suppose one could say, c. 90% of our own blood stock.

Rather having to choose between one set and another by the f*ck up which is brexit. 

There is an argument that, historically, some sections of Scottish society have always been closer to France than England.

Also, don’t forget the main reason why Scotland joined the Union, the Scots can be quite pragmatic when it comes to monetary affairs.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorf...

Which shows gross contribution to be about 2.3% of government spending. But we get some of that back (and some never goes) so our net contribution is about 1.1% of total government spending. Does that sound excessive to you?

Exactly. Looking at the back of my P60 the amount of 'my taxes', going into the EU is negligible when compared to the financial costs of Brexit that the UK will suffer. Plus the regions get some of the contribution made to the EU back. Post brexit I expect to see very little spent outside the South East of England.

It’s a bit more than the vast majority of the other EU countries manage to contribute.

Perhaps if every EU country contributed 1% of their GDP things would be rosier in the EU.

Having seen how European countries contribute to NATO maybe that’s another of my daft ideas.

I'll have to start working my way through the gas canisters and 'Ainsley Harriot Jamaican Rice & Peas'  sachets I've been slowly stockpiling since June 2016.

The irony is that the populist right is surging throughout the EU as a whole. If there is a plus side to Brexshit (and I'm clutching a straws) perhaps we'll be insulated to some degree to the tide of neo-fascism?

I'd be happy to have an independent Scotland in a federation with the independent city-state of London, in Europe. The rest of what was the UK can celebrate blue passports and being rid of the Jocks, London and Johnny foreigner.

Is this Scot - Cockney federation based on some shared ideals or the fact that London is overall quite wealthy?

It’s just that post Brexit all the financial institutions and their associated wealth will be in Frankfurt, won’t it?

And sometimes its been the other way around.

The south east apparently.

It's quite amazing that you manage to hate non only your fellow Europeans but fellow brits as well. Is there anyone that doesn't deserve your bile ?

How about we move parliament, all senior decision makers in government, the central bank and the main law courts to Edinburgh .  Then we spend let say 100 billion quid, hosting the Olympics in Edinburgh and building rail links and multiple airports for Edinburgh.   

Once all the law firms, banks and head offices of companies have moved to Edinburgh because that's where the people they need to influence are and the transport infrastructure of the country converges there Scotland will happily volunteer to pay some welfare to help out the poor unproductive people in London and the South East.

Scotland receives negative economic support from the rest of the UK.  Scotland is economically disadvantaged by its distance from London and because the London based government makes its most significant economic policies to support the economy of London.   Any extra spending above the UK average in Scotland doesn't come close to balancing out these effects.

I think we're going to get the death penalty back and quite possibly imperial measures being taught in schools.    The pensioner populists of the Tory party are running the show and those things are dear to their heart. 

The way the government is handling these jihadis potentially being extradited and executed in the US is a bit of a sign of the times.   The handling of it suggests it is being used as a trap for the left and the EU court and a pay off for the right wing of the Tory party.  They're doing it visibly because they want the left and the EU court to jump on the wrong side of public opinion.  

It's not 1% of GDP, it's 1% if the government budget. Which allows us access to, and, crcucially, influence over the single market. When we crash out onto WTO rules, we'll find out if that represented excellent value for money. 

Shared values. Pro EU, mostly Labour and cosmopolitan.

Your point is well made and equally valid for most of England

But, surely, that is the essence of Brexit. Distrust of the other. (Excepting, of course, the architects of this chaos, who will use their hedge funds to make a large personal fortune out of the instability that follows.)

The economics don't add up of course, but that aside, I never thought I would witness the British leading the world in this very dangerous game of populist politics that we played a massive part in defeating, at great human cost, not much more than a half-century ago. I hope Farage, Johnson, Davis, and their cohorts, rot in hell for what they've done to this country.

That aside, I hope you all have a nice evening.

If you can find the word 'hate' in my posts I'll apologise.

 My point was that that in MG's scenario, an independent Scotland would be of benefit to the remainder of the UK.

Edinburgh is disadvantaged by its location, i.e. distant from mainland Europe

Being independent won't change that but if the Scots want to be independent then that's what should happen.

Did I say it wasn't value for money?

Its even better value for those countries who are too poor to contribute anything but are equal partners in the decision making process.

In fact, if things pan out in a certain way, we'll still be contributing while the non contributors make decisions affecting us.

So can Merseyside join as well?

Well, this exchange implied that

 " baron -  on 17:02 Mon

In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

And one reason why some people voted to leave."

But they aren't equal, we get more MEPs than smaller countries, hence more influence

Yes. It's boiling remainers piss.

Edit: added quote marks

Here.

This is the second time today that somebody has said that I have implied something.

Sometimes you need to take a post at face value.

I don't think that the UK should pay into the EU as some sort of socialist project.

I do realise that the idea is to enable other countries to develop so we cannsell them stuff.

I disagree with this.

Nowhere have I mentioned value for money but I do find it unfair that some pay and some don't while all benefit but that's the conservative in me.

It’s perfectly reasonable to question the high price of being in the EU. We benefit from being in the single market, but we’ve been a net contributor every year since we joined, despite initially being one of the poorest members. 

 I think it is roughly 1% if gdp that all 28 countries pay, before getting some of it back; which is then mostly spent on development fund and agriculture. As a relatively rich, non-agricultural country we lose out heavily, which is why we managed to get the rebate all those years ago. both of these funds generate significant inefficiency and corruption, and there is a good argument to reduce both of them; whether you believe in the European project or not. 

And Brizzle!

sadly I’m almost in Moggland just 10km from the city limits.....

Was this a major reason for you voting leave? 

Personally I don't have a problem with giving a neighbour a hand to improve their country, I view it as a long term investment, with benefits beyond the merely fiscal. Geopolitically we are safer with strong bonds between the members of the EU, economically we benefit from growing the single market, culturally we benefit from joint enterprises like the Erasmus program, environmentally we benefit from harmonised regulations. Etc etc.

1% of our budget is a bargain for all that. 

According to the CBI being in the single market gains us 4% on GDP see http://www.cbi.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/our-global-future/factsheets/fac...

Is the EU perfect? No. Is it worth it? I think it is.

Yes, paying into the EU was one of the reasons I voted leave.

Oh I agree, leaving the single market is a mistake, and putting ourselves in a weak negotiating position is the worst possible way to leave it. 

The thing is, the single market isn’t the expensive part of EU membership. 3/4 of the money goes on agriculture and development. Both worthwhile causes but funds hopelessly compromised by the horse trading required. The bureaucracy, laws and standards that people complain about are important to the running of a single market. But single market membership shouldn’t have to cost as much as it does. 

Penny wise, pound foolish.

Seems to work for over 20 EU countries.

Well it worked so well in 39.

We can't run or hide from this problem, we need to tackle it head on while we can. Brexit only makes us less able to.

jk

I think you're right and it's absolutely sickening.

jk

These do exist. There are "funded by the EU" signs on various infrastructure projects. They signpost the projects that now won't get finished.

Given that the UK is expected, quite rightly, to pay any outstanding debts when we leave the EU, does  the EU not also have an oblgation to finish any projects which it has promised/started?

It can't only work one way, can it?

It was just a fatuous joke.

Public support for the reintroduction of the death penalty fell below 50% a few years back, I can't see it making its way back onto the election manifesto anytime soon.

With regards to our jihadi friends I'm a bit surprised they're still alive to be honest. Plenty of foreign HVT types have been soooo tragically killed in air strikes etc... which was a lot more straightforward for all involved.

Iraq/Syrian authorities don't want these foreign dickwads, their resident countries don't want them, and if different, their country of birth don't want them either. There's a massive problem now with so many returning fighters, (often with their families who followed them), about how culpable each of them are.
Were they coerced? Were they active ISIS participants? How old do they have to be to be considered responsible for their actions? Kids age 6,7 and 8 were committing some godawful atrocities, are they to blame? The cases of El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey are pretty exceptional, they have been stripped of their British citizenship yet any trial in the US will be heavily reliant on UK provided evidence that proves they were responsible for the barbaric deaths of over 20 people. From what I understand the UK does not have suitable legislation under which to convict them with whereas the US does. So its a case of let them walk the streets of the UK, or allow them to face justice in the US. As for them potentially facing the death penalty, a gnat mourns.