UKC

With climate change, the outlook is not good for the long term in many areas of life and I guess Alpine mixed climbing is just one of many things which will be impacted. Not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things but certainly a pity.

After the amazing conditions in September 2014 which followed a wet and unstable summer, the Alps have seen a succession of hot summers and a couple of dry winters. Even the heavy snowfall of last winter wasn’t sufficient to bring many routes into decent condition, though it was good for filling up crevasses. As far as I can tell, winter snow isn’t actually what’s needed for the mixed to build up - it needs ‘sticky’ snow in autumn and spring when it’s not too cold, whereas in winter it’s too cold for the snow to turn into neve and ice.

Over the last three spring seasons it seems that conditions have been getting increasingly dry, with very few routes in decent condition this year. Even the ‘always in’ Chere was looking shockingly bare by the end of the summer season this year. The way this autumn has been going so far, I can’t see things improving much. You never know of course what the weather might bring but it feels like there’s a trend there and it’s not good. Perhaps we’ve now gone past the point where the mixed has been damaged to such an extent that it’s going to be pretty hard for good conditions to ever build up again, particularly in the context of a warming climate. At some stage a turning point will be reached beyond which it will be rare to find the mixed in decent nick - I’m wondering if we’ve now reached that stage.

It would be great to hear from people who’ve been climbing in the Alps since the 60s/70s/80s whether they recall such a bad spell in the past. I’m conscious that just because we’ve had a few bad seasons doesn’t mean we will have more bad seasons but equally the climate isn’t getting cooler on the whole...

Just to be clear, what I’m referring to are goulotte style routes and classic north face mixed, rather than snowed up rocky ridges or ‘modern’ dry tooling style mixed (I quite like dry tooling, so may be this will be the way to go in the Alps but I do like the mixed to actually be mixed!). 

It's more to do with wet vs dry than hot v cold. There's not enough moisture in the system to create snow banks that drip ice down the gullies. You are right that it's autumn and spring snow that make the faces white and that a wet summer is needed to get the material in place for autumn.

it was really dry for a couple of years post the 2003 heatwave too but things came back in

Similar worries form Matt Helliker last week,

I'd guess we are right on the edge of that turning point.

https://www.facebook.com/matthelliker1/posts/1075506419293342

However last winter was very snowy and yet things didn’t build up much in spring. Also there isn’t always a big snowfield sitting at the top of the gullies. I guess you’re right that wet is better than dry but there’s probably more to it. 

Good point about 2003. Perhaps a better way of seeing it we are more likely to see prolonged dry conditions more often but things can still build back up again - it’s just that this will become the exception rather than the rule.

surely its both? with the average freezing level well over 4000m for much of this summer, even with a decent snow pack to provide water, if its not re-freezing its not going to form alpine ice.

overall i would say its the warming trend which is killing the alps rather than a drying trend (i dont even know if there is an overall drying trend?). yes there have been some very dry periods but there have been some very wet spells too. the best conditions correspond with the wet summers (rather than the snowy winters), but that is likely because wet summers are also cold summers, with the freezing level regulalry down below 3000m, which is what is needed to form the typical alpine 'summer' mixed routes. as things get warmer, even with suitable moisture input, the zone of optimum mixed forming conditions will get higher and higher until it is above any mixed crags. 

Maybe it's an opportunity to look further afield. Weather systems are complex, and the systems that give rise to good mixed climbing conditions in the Alps may be found elsewhere, albeit without the ease of access.

It was the dryness 1989 onwards that caused the majority of glacial retreat and ice loss from the faces. Cant remember which academic papers I read that in but it was in a few. You are right in that summer wet and coldness is key to building ice and mixed conditions. Winter snow is goood for the glaciers but just blows off the faces as the snow is too dry. 

Well yes, I’m sure there will be some mixed to be had in Alaska and the Greater Ranges for a while yet but most people can’t afford the time or cost of going to such destinations. 

Glacial loss is bound to be affected by both temperature and snowfall levels. I’m no expert but would have thought that both factors are important. 

Its down to the net loss/gain based on snowfall in the accumulation zone verses ice melt in the ablation zone. snowfall below the ELA (equalibrium line elevation if i remember rightly) will have no effect on glacial growth (though may to an extent reduce melt), and likewise temperature will have no effect above the ELA. though of course as average temperatures increase, the ELA will retreat up the mountain, reducing the surface area (ie catchment) of the accumulation zone which will (if precipitation rate remains constant) reduce the input to the system, leading to a net loss.

every glacier is different, some will be more effected by temperature changes in their ablation zone and others will be more effected my precipitation changes in their accumulation zone.

A bit off topic Misha, but I do find it ironic that all these mountain guides (the last three big rants I've heard recently have come from mountain guides or ex-mountain guides) complain about melting ice and snow whilst taking countless flights between UK and Chamonix every year. I think as in with everything with global warming we'll just have to adapt, I don't know how that actually relates to Alpine routes, but as per ice climbing it will become increasingly fickle 

Not to mention the irony of taking more long haul flights to escape poor conditions caused in part by global warming......

Yes and the academic papers Ive seen suggest that in the Alps the loss has been more down to dryness than the increase in temperatures. It may be that the increase in temperatures is driving weather patterns that make things dry over the Alps, e.g. a large high pressure over Europe, but that the dryness and lack of winter/spring snowfal over the last 30 years accounts for far more of the retreat than the warming of the climate.

No one says you have to fly, just move to where the conditions are. If that means Anchorage, then so be it - it's a matter of deciding what's important to you.

It strikes me that people based in the UK but also wanting to climb and ski long alpine routes in good conditions are wanting to have their cake and eat it with respect to climate change. It's almost like wanting free trade but not willing to accept free movement...

Except that we can, in the meantime, have our cake and eat it.  But we can't have free trade without free movement.

That all makes sense. 

I think this applies to most keen climbers - we all travel a lot. I suppose we could go back to a low impact lifestyle, living in caves - might get good at bouldering?

Interesting. As you say, it could be interconnected of course. 

Fair point. The real answer to climate change is to reduce our consumption of resources (including motorised travel) and population growth. Trouble is, most people aren’t prepared to do it (I’m not going to give up climbing for example). It’s a bit like relying on abstinence for birth control...