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Dummies guide to Brexit please

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 handofgod 15 Jan 2019

Please could someone in very simple language ( like you were explaining it to a child ) give a brief overview of what has happened so far and what the different possible options / outcomes are  for Brexit.

Thanks

 Jon Stewart 15 Jan 2019
In reply to handofgod:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSMqateX8OA2s1wsOR2EgJA

Everything you could want to know.

That's meant to be the link to the channel, but here's the latest video:

youtube.com/watch?v=5xx0e8ppefQ&

Post edited at 09:04
 ianstevens 15 Jan 2019
In reply to handofgod:

PM has struck a deal with Europe.

The deal is reliant on a new trade/movement agreement between the UK/EU post-leaving.

If this can't be made, a "backstop" kicks in, keeping NI but not the UK under the current EU rules, to prevent the establishment of a border in Ireland (contravening the Good Friday Agreement). If instigated, ending the backstop scenario needs to be agreed by both the UK and EU.

Lots of people don't like this deal because a) they want less integration with the EU ("WTO rules"), b) they don't like the backstop, which will effectively establish a border between GB and NI, despite them being the same country, or c) they don't want brexit full stop.

 

The deal has been agreed between the remaining EU-27 states and UK, and cannot be changed unless the UK changes what it wants re: immigration and trade. This will not happen without a change in PM/Government. 

Today, this deal will be voted on by MPs - it needs to pass to be agreed. For the reasons above, lots of MPs of all parties are likely to vote against it, the forecast loss is between 100-200 (out of 639). Following this loss the Government has 3 working days days to return to Parliament with a Plan B (the Grieve Amendment which was passed last week, not uncontroversially).

What happens next? Good question.

1) Labour call for a VONC in the government. It either wins and we stagger on, or loses and Labour have 14 days to form a government. Even IF they had the support of the SNP, LD, PC, Greens and Independents, they can't form a majority so this is unlikely to work. Then we have a general election.

2) The government extends article 50 (required EU approval) and adjusts what the EU wants to change the deal. Adjustments could involve immigration/trade, changing the post-EU position of the UK to one akin to Norway/Switzerland. 

3) The government cancels article 50 and no Brexit.

4) A peoples vote comes about (either through Labour losing a VONC, an amendment, or the government giving in), which is referendum round 2. The EU have already stated they would be prepared to extend article 50 to accommodate this, given that referendums take c. 16 weeks to organise (so a May date wouldn't be unreasonable).

Post edited at 09:04
 squarepeg 15 Jan 2019
In reply to handofgod:

Nothing much has happened or will happen, except Media reporters get very excited. Try not to worry.

8
 Trangia 15 Jan 2019
In reply to handofgod:

If God doesn't understand what's going on there is no point in appealing to you then is there!

1
 jkarran 15 Jan 2019
In reply to handofgod:

May's withdrawal agreement (defines the compromised position from which we negotiate our future relationships) looks set to fail this evening, probably by enough that it can't realistically be brought back with minor changes for another go under more pressure but that is for now a possibility.

Labour can strike while the iron is hot especially if the loss is very significant (I think unlikely, at every stage of this process the noisy tory rebels have lacked spine) with a vote of no confidence in the government but then Labour have hardly shown great boldness either. I suspect they'll dawdle because it's largely symbolic and its near inevitable failure forces Corbyn to plan B which is the unsurprisingly vague 'all options'. He is under intense pressure from his party and MPs to back a ratification referendum which he doesn't want to do, in part because he fears the Labour voting electorate's response (rightly or wrongly) at the next election.

There are other options. There will be pressure for parliament to explore the options, see if any can in principal find a majority. There is a group pressing for Norway. There is a group pressing for no deal. There are other niche ideas like a 'people's council' to decide the way ahead and guide MPs, not a bad idea but it should have been done up front before triggering A50, it's not going to lance the brexit boil we've grown. There is still very little support for just giving up. The problem is they might find a majority for a unicorn, a version of brexit that is not deliverable which gets us nowhere. However daft Norway's position is the beauty of it is they are not in the EU and we won't suffer a severe economic shock, the problem is it's looking rather unicorny not least because Norway don't want the worlds 7th (if I'm keeping up with our slide) largest economy in EFTA and they can torpedo that plan. Additionally there is the group pressing for the rattification referendum (the 'People's Choice' or 'Final Say') but this isn't strictly a form of brexit, it is a way of directing parliament to enact a particular and deliverable version of brexit, probably one they couldn't otherwise agree on (likely May's deal) or of rejecting the idea altogether whichever the electorate wishes.

May likely has a well formed plan B of her own that has remained tightly under wraps which if she remains true to form she will autocratically foist on parliament while the rest of this plays out in parallel unless it's truly dramatic. She has three days from the failure of he WA to pass to declare her intentions. It's probably more pleading in Brussels especially if amendments to tonights vote point to something they might move a little on and more delay at home to ramp up the pressure. It might also be recognition of the need to extend A50 but as yet she's not acknowledging the likelihood of that necessity. She could steal Corbyn's (unwanted but needed) thunder, recognise the public mood has shifted and come out backing a referendum, there are no guarantees as Cameron learned to all our cost but she may seek to use the people to go around parliament for her plan. The risk for her is 'no-deal' ends up on the ballot and following another awful campaign we vote to do something really stupid. Doesn't seem her way but we live in strange times. A referendum will also allow the development of a potent betrayal narrative but realistically that is coming either way given, the referendum just gives it a clearer focus and a bit of a head start.

At some point we will have to extend A50 which may come at an unacceptable cost especially if we haven't clearly go our act together and a plan in action which is likely given this shambolic minority government can't pass legislation by force and isn't for listening. Who knows what that triggers, another crisis for sure, perhaps unilateral withdrawal of A50 to buy time then more crises as the EU reacts harshly to what will look like game playing.

While all this happens the tory hardliners will be looking for ways to ensure the A50 clock runs down with government paralysed by indecision or process if they can't install a hardliner at the helm. No deal is the default on March 29th.

jk

Post edited at 10:30
 JLS 15 Jan 2019
In reply to ianstevens:

>"PM has struck a deal with Europe."

Is this deal that's being voted on today supposed to be the final comprehensive arrangements or just a stop gap while the real details are resolved?

Post edited at 10:28
 jkarran 15 Jan 2019
In reply to JLS:

> Is this deal that's being voted on today supposed to be the final comprehensive arrangements or just a stop gap while the real details are resolved?

Stop gap. It's just the exit agreement and temporary future position, the permanent future relationship is yet to be defined but it sets us into a rut (heading toward a customs union and close ties via some embarrassing and costly concessions) it'll be hard to climb out of should we ultimately choose to pursue a different course.

jk

 ianstevens 15 Jan 2019
In reply to JLS:

> >"PM has struck a deal with Europe."

> Is this deal that's being voted on today supposed to be the final comprehensive arrangements or just a stop gap while the real details are resolved?

What jkarran said. The only legally binding bit of today's vote sets out how we leave, the future arrangement comes next. However there is a non-binding "political deceleration" tagged on the end.

 Harry Jarvis 15 Jan 2019
In reply to ianstevens:

> What jkarran said. The only legally binding bit of today's vote sets out how we leave, the future arrangement comes next. However there is a non-binding "political deceleration" tagged on the end.

A marvellously appropriate spelling error. Political deceleration [sic] is an accurate description of the ways in which the normal pace of Westminster life (never speedy at the best of times) has slowed to a standstill while the Brexit machine rumbles on with much noise and muddle. 

 Bob Hughes 15 Jan 2019
In reply to ianstevens:

> PM has struck a deal with Europe.

> The deal is reliant on a new trade/movement agreement between the UK/EU post-leaving.

> If this can't be made, a "backstop" kicks in, keeping NI but not the UK under the current EU rules, to prevent the establishment of a border in Ireland (contravening the Good Friday Agreement). If instigated, ending the backstop scenario needs to be agreed by both the UK and EU.

> Lots of people don't like this deal because a) they want less integration with the EU ("WTO rules"), b) they don't like the backstop, which will effectively establish a border between GB and NI, despite them being the same country, or c) they don't want brexit full stop.

just one correction. the backstop is UK wide. It's in effect a two-tier backstop so NI has to be more closely aligned with EU regulations (especially on things like phytosanitary controls) while all of the UK would be in a customs union. This was a major concession granted by the EU to UK but May has failed to capitalise on it domestically. Partly because the ERG hate it and partly because May is a terrible salesperson.

It is hated because:

- it would prevent the UK from signing trade deals on tariffs

- the UK would need to abide by existing level playing field rules (e.g. no state aid) but not new ones (i.e. it would maintain the status quo but new rules implemented in the eu would not automatically apply to UK).

-NI would need to abide by single market rules / food standards rules (I believe this would be dynamic but not sure) 

In reply to Bob Hughes:

Thanks for clarification.

 ianstevens 15 Jan 2019
In reply to Bob Hughes:

Cheers - nuance missed because I wrote it all off the top of my head. 

 Jim Fraser 15 Jan 2019
In reply to handofgod:

You don't need to know. She's going to be defeated in the Commons, never accept no deal, and therefore withdraw Article 50. So it'll be Keep Calm And Carry On.

 Ridge 15 Jan 2019
In reply to Jim Fraser:

Just heard. Defeated in the commons.

pasbury 15 Jan 2019
In reply to handofgod:

> Please could someone in very simple language ( like you were explaining it to a child ) give a brief overview of what has happened so far and what the different possible options / outcomes are  for Brexit.

There was a clusterf*ck in 2016 when the electorate made a mistake in voting, with incomplete knowledge, or for the wrong reasons, to leave the EU.

There has been a clusterf*ck for 2 and a half years since then, because negotiations were based on unrealistic goals (and that’s putting it charitably).

There has been a clusterf*ck tonight as the most realistic version of what we voted for (48:52) has been voted down (because duh what we voted for was f*cking dumb).

There will be a clusterf*ck for the next few months while we go through either an election or a second referendum or both.

There will be a clusterf*ck lasting 20 years until we as a nation get a grip on ourselves and finally get over our delusions of grandeur.

Post edited at 20:38
2
 profitofdoom 15 Jan 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> There was a clusterf*ck in 2016 when the electorate made a mistake in voting, with incomplete knowledge, or for the wrong reasons, to leave the EU...................

Thanks but pls. let me summarize, there were 3 clusterf*cks in the past and there will be 2 in the future, nice post anyway

pasbury 15 Jan 2019
In reply to profitofdoom:

Let’s not get too tense about it.

 

1
 gravy 15 Jan 2019

Brexit is either:

- A period of political and economic uncertainty between the UK deciding to and then deciding not to leave the EU

-or-

-  A period of political and economic uncertainty between the UK deciding leave and then deciding to rejoin the EU on less good terms.

It will last between 3 and 25 years.

Either way it is marked by bitter divisions between leave and remain.

 

 profitofdoom 15 Jan 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> Let’s not get too tense about it.

I agree. And certainly not the present simple tense or future perfect tense ha-ha-ha


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