UKC

Boris is going to fudge his way through the legal courts, run the clock down, and crash out of Europe before a judgement is made.

In reply to The Lemming:

No he hasn't.
EU will extend in the next 11 days.
WA2 may well get passed, but with Bref2 attached.
Public votes remain.

In reply to Lusk:

I don't think the public will. 

I think the public is fed up. 

In reply to bouldery bits:

If they are fed up with Brexit the only quick fix is to revoke Art 50 & stay in the EU, agreeing the WA or leaving with no deal will just be the start of years of further negotiations. 

In reply to The Lemming:

You post lots of headline-based opinions often in the form of vague questions on here. To claim “I was right” about anything, is a hell of a hedge-betting stretch. It’s like saying “tomorrow it will either rain or it won’t”, and then claiming to have brilliantly predicted the weather. 

In reply to bouldery bits:

Words straight from conservative spin central. From the poll trends I think more people want to remain than brexit these days and a good number of people haven't a clue or don't care. Watching Raab claim, with a straight face, that he and Boris have completely flipped on their views on regulations wrt workers rights and the environment this am on Andrew Marr was laughable. There was also no proper defence presented for Boris's childish tantrum over the letter. Keir Starmer and Oliver Letwin in contrast were adult, and surgical in their analysis.

In reply to The Lemming:

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/ive-sent-the-let...

In reply to Offwidth:

You and I are politics followers. 

Most folk ain't. 

In reply to The Lemming:

I suspect he’ll get this through but I am now worried we’ll be in a very similar position in 14 months as we face crashing out of the exit deal with no back stop. Another year of No Deal money squandering and Parliamentary paralysis coming up.

In reply to bouldery bits:

I fail to see the link with everyone being fed up, to them wanting brexit: more now are fed up and want us to remain and nearly as large number want it to go away but don't care if brexit happens or not. What you said just matches the spin from the conservative right who are within touching distance now of a deregulated economy that will stuff the very demographic (the less educated and older) who most voted for brexit. Listen to what Raab and Boris always said, at least up until a few months ago, about EU style regulations. Those regulations protect jobs and the environment and fair taxation. I don't think it's a coincidence that such rich men started their popularist leave campaign at exactly the point that the EU decided to crack down on tax havens and similar abuse.... do you?

In reply to Offwidth:

I didn't say I wanted people to vote Brexit. I just think the likelihood is people will.

As it happens, I'm staunch remain. I'm usually an optimistic nihilist. In this case I've dropped the optimism. 

In reply to bouldery bits:

If the public is fed up they should vote remain. Brexit will go on for years whatever happens other than revoking A50.

In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Key word. Should. 

They won't. We're all wallies 

In reply to bouldery bits:

Well they are...

My guess is that Johnson would win an election but remain would win a referendum. I know what you mean though. 

In reply to The Lemming:

I see the Civil Contingencies Act is about to get an airing.

Be afraid. With no extension this is going to spiral in to street battles.

In reply to The Lemming:

So right that you posted a link to a previous post where you clearly and unambiguously stated as much? 

In reply to wintertree:

The Lemming posts a lot of stuff in the "The Pub" forum, which disappears in time.

In reply to wintertree:

I did however the Down the Pub subjects have been deleted.

Edit

Boris showed his Proof of Concept when he Prorogued Parliament. it took weeks before the Supreme Court ruled that Boris broke political law.

This latest tantrum can take weeks and by then the clock will have run down long before the Supreme Court sits again.

In reply to Yanis Nayu:

You think revoking article 50 will make Brexit go away?

Ha ha ha!

In reply to Blue Straggler:

See - there is a God.

In reply to pec:

Of course it will make brexit go away for a good number of years. I think you mean it won't deal with the anger and dissatisfaction of a large proportion of the population with the decision and with the EU, but much of that is based on hateful gutter press bs and a significant minority of 'little englander' zenophobia and of course the smaller number of outright racists. As a firm remainer I share serious concerns about the EU, alongside the minority of better informed brexiteers...yet I see the geopolitical stability and economic benefits of being in the EU as much more important (albeit political reform of the EU as urgent) and the likely outcomes of a UK outside the customs union and european regulatory framework as highly risky for exploitation under a right-wing (even for the tories), free market government (almost certain with a possible biggish Boris majority following an election and in such circumstances Scotland may well fracture the union as I think the SNP will definitely have enough evidence to convince a majority for independance).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/20/boris-johnson-ride-ro...

I favour the battle hardened optimism in this Gina Millar article yesterday.  If there is an election soon I think the tories will gain from painting Corbyn as a bogeyman but they will also lose seats in Scotland to the SNP and in the south to the Lib Dems. So in my view centrists and swing votors can hold their nose and vote Labour in tory-Labour marginals, as Gina suggests, as Corbyn is toast in any likely scenario. I still think the two most likely outcomes will be a Labour minority government in (formal or informal) coalition or a Boris led government with a small majority, such that he will be forced to compromise.

In reply to Offwidth:

Possibly in the sense that it doesn't happen for a few more years but in the sense that it will not be the defining issue in British politics?

Has Scottish independance gone away? They didn't even win their referendum and they only make up 8% of the UK population.

Whatever your opinion on Brexit itself, you're living in cloud cuckoo land if you believe Brexit is going anywhere. The cat is out of the bag and it's not going back in.

In reply to pec:

I agree to some extent - the permanent-angry will need something else to artificially inflate their blood pressure. 

In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Britain is becoming increasingly unequal, and people have good reason to be angry. 

That anger is being mis-directed at the EU at the moment, but whatever happens next with brexit, in or out of the EU, that and won't go away. 

We need to solve the inequality if we want to live in a harmonious society.

In reply to Ciro:

I saw an excellent speech, by a US Democractic hopeful Andrew Yang, talking about the rise of Trump, which isn't a million miles away from the rise of Brexiteers. His point was about misplaced anger - for them, against Mexican immigrants, to us European, and how the actual villain is automation which has eaten up huge amounts of low-wage labour roles. 

Really interesting ideas - data-industries (e.g. Google, Facebook etc), and automation should be taxed to fund essentially a universal income. 

In reply to Durbs:

What he says makes a lot of sense. The podcast he did with Joe Rogan is worth a listen.

In reply to Durbs:

A facet of the big picture - which to me comes down to the need for some sort of workable socialism so that everyone benefits from a future where wealth doesn’t derive from non-human work.  At the moment we’re headed down a path where the political and genetic descendants of the lucky ones now will be the gatekeepers or future wealth and not through any merit.

This is why I despair so much at the continuing gutting of our welfare state both in financial terms and in the public mindset and support.

In reply to pec:

I might argue I've lived my whole adult life with that particular cat out of the bag. For every single serious argument about real problematic EU issues I've listened to in the decades prior to the brexit vote I had to tolerate endless shit about things like straight bananas, ludicrous national stereotypes and occasional plain racism.

As far as I'm concerned representative democracy was always there to ensure political decisions were carefully scrutinised, not led by a mobbe. Its why we no longer hang people. These days I do wonder where we are heading with Boris.

In reply to The Lemming:

What do we think Johnson's plan is?

Seems to me it's very fluid but he is winning. He's probably sold the revised deal to enough hardliners with a no-deal trapdoor built into it. If we leave the EU without immediate chaos he neuters Farage and convincingly wins an election, (assuming he's allowed one). Any safeguards added this week to ease the bill's passage can be stripped away then when the transition times out we get our shock.

We can't get a referendum through this government and we can't get rid of this government without getting a worse one. We're screwed. It'll take another 1-2 years to fully play out but the vultures get their economic crash every which way.

jk

In reply to Blue Straggler:

Even a blind squirrel tells the right time twice a day.

In reply to Offwidth:

I suspect a small majority may actually strengthen his hand in some ways when it comes to controversial issues, small rebellions could win votes but small groups of rebels risking felling a weak government, they have a lot to lose and can be punished more easily than larger groups which might not actually have to play their hands to achieve their goals. I suspect a weak Conservative government, minus many of its more moderate current MPs, will find its back benches cowed and compliant while delivering brexit.

jk

In reply to Durbs:

Problem is those companies are now more powerful than most nations, they can effectively pick and choose their governments either by buying them or in extremis, by relocating a brass plaque.

jk

In reply to Durbs:

Automation... You mean any machine that does a task previously don't by hand? 

Washing machine? Dish washer?

Machines that harvest crops?

Make electronics?

Unless we go back to the stone age most things we do have some level of automation. 

Ps. No study has shown universal income will work. 

In reply to jkarran:

That would be a first for a small majority government. Small groups of rebels know well enough the consequencies of felling governments but equally know how to use their power to get their own way in secondary issues. Bigger majorities would leave Boris completely untamed apart from if he wanted to move back towards the centre. I'm still hopeful he won't get a majority.

In reply to summo:

Most are still ongoing and I'm not aware of any concluding it can't work.

jk

In reply to summo:

No studies show that the Laffer curve is a real thing or that Neo liberal economic work to improve life 😏. 

. 

In reply to Offwidth:

Brexit is throwing up quite a lot of firsts.

jk

In reply to summo:

Yep, but more recently, and relevant - self-driving lorries, self-service checkouts, any shop which is now online, trials of automatic delivery drones, factory robots

"The immigrants have taken our jobs!" is generally utter pish - they've been replaced by a cheaper, more efficient system.

In reply to Durbs:

And when the engines replaced pit ponies, spinning machines, mechanical forges replaced blacksmiths etc..

Mechanisation isn't new. 

Perhaps we just need to cut down to a 3 day week, more leisure time. But also less income. With global pollution issues, limited natural resources, perhaps we don't need or shouldn't have the same consumerist lifestyle as we in the West enjoy today. Explore what's on our own doorstep a little more. 

In reply to jkarran:

Some are on going, but of those finished none have said it worked and they'd like to expand even a modified version. 

Just like the trials of a 30hr week on 40hrs pay etc.. human nature kicks in. They haven't worked.

Logic would dictate when can't even afford to adequately fund existing state services like health and education, adding in the costs of universal income just isn't financial viable unless any benefit is quite marked. The Finnish study did conclude that folk were healthier but it had no impact on their employment prospects, the unemployed just enjoyed a better standard of living. 

In reply to summo:

Mechanisation is not new, but in the past it has generally moved at a pace where we can invent new jobs to keep up. With AI, we're probably fast approaching a time when it's cheaper to ask the clever machine to build a new dumb machine to do a manual task, than it is to employ a human either to do the task, or to build the thing that does the task. 

AI will be better and faster than us at most things, and we can't all become the designers and programmers that look after the AI.

It won't just affect the working classes - why employ an architect to design the extension on your house when you can chat with an AI architect that can draw up your original idea, ensuring compliance with all local regulations, and giving you a list of options for costs depending on what materials and finishes you want, completed in seconds - and keep redrawing and configuring it for you in real time?

We'll be better at entertaining, but the world only needs so many pop stars and formal players.

What's everyone else going to do for the days a week you think we should be working?

In reply to Ciro:

Peopke predict we'd all be living the life of leisure now if you believed tomorrow's world in the 70s and 80s. 

You think AI will be cheap enough to put even the lowest paid out of work, or do bespoke niche jobs. 

I'd agree. But humans will still be need to care for people, cook, entertain and other more personal tasks. 

That point is decades away. 

True. So why do we even need money? Can't the state just provide the basics of what everyone needs. 

Keep active for the sake of our health. 2 or 3 day weeks. Live simple lives. 

In reply to jkarran:

Indeed we have lots of firsts but lets not get carried away. It has its benefits too: who would have thought that we could be in a situation where the combined opposition parties would be witholding an election until no deal is out of the picture (as they have the upper hand). A situation partly of the PMs own making as he overreacted and caused 21 MPs to lose the tory whip.  In the meantime, whilst the gutter press act all rabid, we do keep having statesman like explanations about why key MPs helped thwart Boris' s latest foolishness... Ken Clarke this am on the BBC pointing out that:  given where we are October 31st is irrelevant outside Number 10; that we would have had brexit already if the ERG hadn't blocked it 3 times;  that major bills with massive implications need time to scrutinise; that things have been so rushed even the brexit secretary seemed to have misunderstood his own customs requirements for NI; and all this Parliament versus the people propaganda coming from Number 10 is dangerous nonsense.  We even got a political joke based on selling whelks.

In reply to Offwidth:

But they're not, they're just delaying it which they can't continue indefinitely, probably not for more than another week. To put it out of the picture they needed to agree on a way back down from the ledge. They didn't so we jump or fall.

As interesting as it is to see parliament flexing its muscles it's going nowhere ultimately and their resolve appears very very fragile if not lost.

Well that's something

jk

In reply to jkarran:

The best hopes I have are for no brexit or some brexit with a close arrangement with the EU. Given where we are delay is the best way for this to happen. In this nearly all the current opposition MPs are doing as well as they can and I'm pretty sure will continue to do so. If the bill progresses, the mess it represents will become more apparent to the public and at some point the ERG will stop supporting it as a closer form of brexit and better protections for workers and the environment will be made by amendments.

There is no majority support in the current Parliament, or in the UK population for this hard brexit that Boris has negotiated, industry and commerce would be heavily against it. If Boris forces an election on brexit having missed Halloween he will be all but wiped out in Scotland in terrible trouble in the Liberal marginals in the S and SW and his target voters are likley split more so than the opposition in the northern marginal seats that matter most and I think he will lose the election, even though Labour will struggle to gain seats. A more split Parliament gives a second referendum.

In reply to Offwidth:

They'll kick off but they will back it all the way now. Their options are as bad as the oppositions', if they push back against it too hard for too long something else has to happen and that something else always risks killing brexit. If they pass it it's done, it's practically irreversible and they can unpick the amendments with the majority a 'brexit done!' election would afford them, especially one held during the orderly out but effectively still in transition period.

That doesn't matter. With the opposition divided he needs maybe a third of the electorate to deliver him a parliamentary majority.

Well I hope you're right but I can't see it. I think wherever the election falls before or after we leave Johnson now has a clear shot at a majority.

jk

In reply to jkarran:

Behind all the bluff and bluster of Boris there are real tory concerns on a december election:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/24/wary-tories-say-johnsons-e...

Currently those who lost the whip are in limbo, as are those who changed party.  You then have those torys in liberal marginals and the Scottish tories. Then you have the Labour MPs in big brexit areas. Getting 2/3rds majority will be tricky with so many seats very much likely to be lost.

The more people are calling it a stunt, the more Boris will struggle. 

In reply to Offwidth:

Parliament knows a GE would probably mean Labour heavily beaten and LibDems a protest presence. Whether you gnash your teeth and wring your hands or not depends on your political stance and probably Boris will prevail. And there is no ignoring a referendum has already been won. I don,t really mind if we stay or leave, just as long as something is done and we can move on. Oh I know the retort I must be thick!

In reply to pec:

That works both ways though, people have lived in the EU and will know how good life is and was. Being part of the EU will always be an option.

In reply to Philb1950:

Not at all,. That was a political decision 3.5 years ago. People have seen the options. Let them decide what out means. But also democracy isn't a one vote system, the US voted to keep slavery legal, they had another vote and the right outcome happened. We have elections every 3-5 years because people do change their minds, people die and new voters come about.