UKC

Following recent advice from the UK government and health officials that the public should be practising social distancing, the continued use of climbing walls as a leisure facility is increasingly putting lives at risk, argues Levi Yant, M.Sc. (Virology), PhD (Genetics) Associate Professor of Evolutionary Genomics at the University of Nottingham's Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences.

Not sure I agree with encouraging people to climb outside. Although i would love to myself, this just doesn't seem right? The article suggests it as a means to keep social distance, but if we all have the same idea the crags will be packed.

Well said!

Less likelihood of touching the same holds as others, less likely to be within the 2m radius of others, colder environment kills virus easier, holds washed by rain regularly, there are clear positives.

Interested in Levi's take on schools staying open?  Children are also perfect carriers and schools are perfect places for viruses to be spread around.

The colder enironment preserves the virus. It's not a living thing so you can't freeze it to death; cold preserves it. Heat denatures the protein shell of the virus and UV destroys it. 

100 people at stanage isn't going to be the same as 100 people at the depot though. 

The trouble regarding schools is that while there is still industry open parents will need to work, so kids will end up with grandparents.  This is potentially quite high risk.

Having the low risk people (kids) in schools is I suspect lower risk.

It's all very nuanced.

Very  easy to send kids home that can go home and use the school as a distributed care  centre for those that can't

True, although sometime a 100 boulderers at Plantation doesn't feel so different! But plenty of out of the way places to explore where you're unlikely to meet many others.

Ratho sounds safer than The Big End of Stanage on all those counts!

thank you, levi!

the example i usually use to illuminate exponential growth is copy/pasting in software to make a large number of duplicates. making one instance, copying it, and hitting paste over and over may be fast for limited numbers, but it’s impossible to keep up with reselecting after pasting and making a copy that duplicates the entire current state. it even models how easy it is to misjudge the early steps as going way too slow to be worth the trouble. but when you go from 64 to 128 in a single step, instead of having to hit ctrl-v 64 times, it’s beyond over.

regarding coping with the inconvenience of not being able to go to the gym: in an age where everybody has a backlog of shows to watch and/or games to play, and a to-read pile to work through, and where we as climbers, probably all have a niggle that we should spend more time rehabbing properly (or prehabbing more diligently against a previous one’s reoccurrence), antagonists we could spend more time on training, a yoga habit that could do with some expansion, and so on, i think we should be technically fine. i get it’s an easier proposition for some than for others, and it’s easier to stay distanced without getting cabin fever out in the middle of nowhere than it is in a packed city, but it’s also not rocket science to recognise that there are more important things at stake right now.

"but if we all have the same idea the crags will be packed"

I think it's a good reason to dig out those slightly esoteric climbing guidebooks- the upper Carneddau or Moelwyns are possibly good options to escape the hoards at other crags!

How many times do you need to fold a (hypothetical) large sheet of paper until the thickness reaches to the moon? How many times to get half way? Mars?

Are there? Any tips?

TCA was pretty quiet this morning, just had an email that they're closing all centres and passes will be frozen & reinstated when/if(!) they reopen. 

Also climbing outside is all very well until you have an accident necessitating hospital treatment at which point you may be judged as being somewhat socially irresponsible.

Agreed. I think we will just have to accept that this spring and maybe summer will be a write-off for climbing. People will hate the thought of that but we have to do what we can to protect the population from this virus. Sacrificing a few month's climbing is nothing compared to the price that many more are paying.

The Climbing Station in Loughborough has announced they are closing from tomorrow

How many accidents from 'climbing outside' require resource-intensive hospital treatment each year? And how does that figure compare with accidents arising from the myriad other activities people engage in - say, driving?

My advice would be to carry on climbing in the fresh air if that's what you enjoy. It's generally a very healthy pastime and, in the current context, can also be good for your mental health.

(Edit: that's unless we are all ordered to stay indoors at home, and not venture out at all. If that does happen, then follow the advice.)

Might be prudent to pass on any bold leads or soloing, though.

youtube.com/watch?v=GmrVSeoDnc4&

need to get your facts right old chum 

As a Climbing Station regular with an annual pass, I am really pleased to hear that you are closing. We all face some difficult choices. I work at Nottingham University, and although not official university policy my entire research team will work from home form tomorrow for the foreseeable future. It's not easy to make this decision when other labs are working. I really respect that you are taking such a difficult decision. 

correct

I take your point but I for one would feel very uncomfortable about burdening the NHS at the moment following an avoidable (ie I don't need to go climbing) accident, even it was just a broken ankle, say.

Latest news:

The Quay Climbing Centre in Exeter closed indefinitely from 10pm tonight so it will have to be outdoors from now on!

don't fall off then.

walls closing wont effect the amount I do as rock is closer than any climbing walls to my house.

I completely agree.  If you are going to go outside, I would suggest that at this time enjoying the physical challenge rather than fear and sticking to top-roping and bouldering would be very sensible.  The NHS needs all the capacity it can get, not to end up treating people with injuries from activities that were entirely avoidable.

I want to agree with you except that ... getting to the crag depends on driving - sometimes quite far in UK too, and this road exposure may be deemed an unnecessary risk - before you even take such at the crag  

I don't disagree - I think it's probably incumbent on us to avoid using the NHS in any form as much as possible as it's going to be quite busy.

I suspect the burden on the NHS from climbing accidents is statistically almost invisible, if everyone has to spend months inside I'd guess the increase in DIY accidents will be much greater!

I'd also imagine with so much working from home the roads will be much quieter and correspondingly safer as well.

They were this morning - I actually cycled to work at 8:40 rather than slaloming around cars and avoiding being run over.

"Having the low risk people (kids) in schools is I suspect lower risk."

Nope, you've got that wrong. They are just as likely to catch and spread C-19 as anyone else - it's just that they are less likely to develop serious illness (risk = probability * consequency, same probability, lower consequence so lower risk).

From a spreading it around point of view kids are very effective because they socialise closely in large numbers and are therefore and effective vector.

But then if you consider that if they're not in school they might have to be palmed off on grandparents.  As things stand taking the kids to the grandparents is probably about the worst thing you can do for precisely the reason you mention.

Any chance I can buy some shares in Beastmaker?

That's the way I'm thinking, I'm getting very close to calling it myself and not sending my daughter in.  The only thing that is holding me back is she has her Highers next month and they are a couple of days away from finishing teaching the course.  They may be crazy enough to still hold the exams with special precautions. (Before I get flamed my daughter is 17 and under no legal obligation to be at school).

The other advantage of making school optional is it will be safer for the kids that need to go if it is half empty.

From a selfish viewpoint, if you go to a hospital A&E which has become a corona virus triage station with a twisted ankle you might have a long wait, followed by a quarantine and a dose of coronavirus.

Why would that be crazy? I think it might be the best of several less than satisfactory possibilities.

Because coronavirus is on an exponential trend and there is a long period of doubling already built in because of the 14 day incubation period.   There's a time gap between an effective lockdown showing through in less infections.  Next month is likely to be carnage.

We really don't know how dangerous going to school for one extra day is but every additional day is significantly more dangerous than the one before, up to the point a week or two after the lockdown where the effect of lockdown on transmission shows through. 

Getting infected a month before Highers would be a lot worse outcome than missing a day of school.  In our case I work from home, she's 17 and there are no grandparents so the two reasons the government cites for keeping kids at school don't apply.

Just saw this on Facebook from a friend who works in Silicon Valley.   They are not dicking about in the US any more.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages...

Here's the best illustration I've seen on why social distancing is critical. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid...

I'm in Seattle in the US. The wave us upon us. There's no stopping it. We can only hope to broaden the crest so that our healthcare systems aren't overwhelmed the way Italy's are now.

Do you want the UK to be another Italy? Their social distancing was too little too late and the death toll is going to be bad. As another model, look at Singapore and Japan and even China. They learned from SARS and changed their society to be ready for this. Social distancing works if and only if strong measures are adopted early. Every day counts.  Please do your part and be an example for your friends and family.

The crags are hardly going to be packed are they? Particularly as people are aware that we shouldn't be climbing in close proximity. If there is already a team on a particular buttress just move along to the next one (giving a wide birth if you like). Even a crag like stanage which is possibly the most well known, popular crag in the UK I could climb a route tomorrow that is unlikely to have been climbed in a decade. That's not going to happen down the wall is it? 

Thank you, those Washington post simulations make the effects/benefits of social distancing so clear.

This is what the media should be doing. Informing/educating people.

A piece of paper, of any size, can't be folded more than seven (?) times. Unless you're making a fan I suppose... 

How did your daughter do in her prelims? If they cancel the exams those are likely the grades she'll get.

My biggest concern with closing schools though isn't the pupils sitting highers etc but the ones at the other end of the scale who are vulnerable or have additional needs with difficult home lives and unsupportive parents. Potential for some very negative outcomes there.

I think he knows this, hence his use of the term 'hypothetical'.

These simulations are an excellent way to visualise the infection rate. Thanks for the share!

Banning outdoor recreational cycling in Spain and Italy to avoid possible drain on the health services. http://cycling.today/italy-and-spain-ban-cycling-completely/?fbclid=IwAR0J1...

I'm not averse to getting outside, but i disagree with encouraging getting outside climbing. Get outside for a walk, a bike ride by all means, any activity you really can keep a distance, but not climbing. 

That team you refer to, all climbing the same problem, same holds, spotting each other, in a place that's not so easy to wash hands regularly. It only takes one to pass it on. It just isn't worth it imo. 

The rock will always be there. 

There's always one smart arse at thge back of the class......

You need to pay more attention - I said it was a hypothetical piece of paper. Now get on with your work.

Untrue. The rule applies for standard A4 but large sheets can be folded more times due to an increase in surface area.

I would guess - but I do not know - that accidents arising from bike riding place a greater strain on the health service than do accidents from rock climbing.

Two countries have banned cycling for that reason, FWIW.  Walking and running are probably best.

I would suggest mountain biking, with its silly-high accident rate, is *right* out.  The NHS doesn't want to be patching people up at the moment.

Don't people ever get hospitalised from climbing inside?

Attention customers. With current government advice in mind, we would like to inform you that The Barn Climbing Centre (Tavistock) is now closed until further notice. We apologise and will keep you informed of any changes as they happen. We wish you all the best in these testing times and hope to open again soon.

Trad leading and soloing (and even sport) are notably more dangerous than indoor/artificial wall climbing.

My response was more in relation to limiting the spread of the virus but agree with your point about reducing the strain on the NHS where possible.

A bike ride for me is more a leisurely flat ride somewhere (about as hardcore as my bike rides get!) which although still comes with it's risks is way less than full on MTB.

I guess it's just about using common sense, taking precautions and keeping safe.

Pretty good but the expectation is the Higher results would be better than prelims because they do a ton more revision and past papers in the last few weeks.   I don't think just using prelim results would be fair, they'd need to adjust upwards if they want like-for-like grade comparability across years.   Also, coronavirus is a bit of a distraction for the kids this year.

They might be more dangerous but the climbing activity I've witnessed the most accidents that needed an A&E trip at busy times is indoor bouldering, quite common in my experience. It's quite a bit rarer in my experience to see Mountain Rescue on very busy Stanage days where there are way more participants. Amongst my climbing friends mountain bike accidents seem to dominate A&E trips.

I would certainly say anyone going MTBing is being *highly* irresponsible.

Absolutely. A candidate who works seriously goes up about a grade on average I reckon.

Not any more.

If it comes down to estimated grades being given it's going to be a bit of a lottery. Some schools (even depts within schools will differ) will go with prelim grades, some will go with teacher judgement based on recent work and others are, even as we speak frantically putting pupils through second prelims which may or may not be of value. There's no way the SQA will have the resources or even the ability to assess these judgments on a case by case basis so I suspect they'll go with what the schools say and maybe do some sampling so that it looks like there's some rigor to it.

I was going to go indoor climbing yesterday. Levi's comment on the other UKC article made me pause, reconsider and then decide to stay home instead. Brush the dust off that Beastmaker. At least I know who put it there!

youtube.com/watch?v=kRAEBbotuIE&

Yeah, the Beastmaker is actually gonna get used now. It's on the entry to the lounge so can binge watch Netflix at the same time

As a counter-consideration, would not the risk be reasonably manageable with regard to using a climbing wall? If plastic holds are a likely point of transmission, considered washing of hands would help minimise the risk. 
The greater point of trying to keep all possible infection to a minimum is presumably the important point, but at some point I'm going to have to go to the shops, and surely there the infection hazards are broadly similar to going to the wall (or pub, or whatever). I suppose one has to eat, mind, whereas leisure activities are non-essential. 

But the situation shows how massively complicated and interwoven our society is - it's not a simple as saying 'everyone stay away from each other for three weeks'. That'd be fine, if arduous, if everyone had a stack of food that would last the duration, and money to pay the bills, but surely almost no-one really does. I need to got to work to be able to lock myself away, and meanwhile some people will have to go to work to keep things running. 
From my own - selfish - perspective, it's not necessarily of benefit to go into quarantine, and while I'd happily accept that there's a greater good and I ought to act in everyone's best interest, it's not entirely clear that in the long run the chaos and disruption of shutting almost everything down is better than that caused by the virus progressing through the population unchallenged.

This is not to argue that everyone should just ignore it, more just to air a quandary. If there were more certainties - about the virus spreading, about mortality rates, about how long the situation is likely to last, about how mortgages are going to get paid, about how jobs are going to remain etc, etc, etc - then it'd be easier to be sure about what the 'right' thing to do is. 

I’m all in favour of avoiding accidents. But following your logic would suggest that people should stop driving as well. Driving kills about 3,000 people a year and injures many more. That’s a lot more than get injured climbing. The risk per person is lower but you need to look at the overall numbers as that’s what’s going to impact the hospitals.

Of course you could say that (some) driving is essential for (some) people, whereas climbing is discretionary. However my point is that people will still drive and won’t really think about the risk of having an accident any more than they do normally. Most people will just drive as normal, trying to avoid any issues as best they can. I don’t see why climbing should be different. Statistically, a few accidents will happen with both climbing and driving, more so with the latter, but no one sets out with a view to having an accident. 

You make it sound as if climbing is the sole source of this virus. 

I thank Levi Yant for the article...which reinforces what I suspected & many others are forgetting!....

Air transmission is the main cause, you can still get it if you are in the same enclosed space, & breathing the same air as an infected person even if 2m away & not touching etc......there are already been a death in the UK because of a person getting it from being in a restaurant in which another customer was infected (just got from ski-ing trip in Italy)....Just like in China one infected person got on a bus & half hour after they got off, people who then got on got the virus...& mainly because of not enough air changes per hour in the enclosed space.

Many buildings since 1980s have to have regulation number of air changes per hour depending on usage etc...i.e. adequate ventilation...this is why the 15min rule for being in the same air space as an infected person is sensible….so limit the time you are in any one enclosed space to 15mins...

Also a face mask will NOT stop you from getting the virus unless its a total sealed system type for organic compounds with changeable filters.....However a more basic face mask will STOP you from coughing out your flehm & thus infecting other people

All very good points.

What about using the campus board or other advanced training equipment Luke rings and TRX as they are used by advanced climbers who know how to use them properly without injuring themselves?

There are a lot of walls that are spacious and usually empty when I go.

Thank you for your thoughts. I think your thinking reflects a bit of a business as usual approach where individuals try to justify why they shouldn't change their behaviours. Yes climbing accidents are a tiny impact on the NHS, but I bet the horse riding, mountain biking, trials bike, motorsport, etc etc communities are all using the same arguments for continuing what they do. Collectively these discretionary activities then start to have an impact. 

Incidentally around 1700 people are killed per year on UK roads.

Well, er, hang on a minute, aren't we saying you basically shouldn't go out of the house unless you need to?

That puts paid to most driving.

Who is ‘we’? May be you are. I’m not, it’s more nuanced than just stay at home. The government is advising to avoid social contact but it’s not exactly ‘stay at home’ and they’re not mandating it anyway (just got out of France where they’re taking a hardline approach, which I have issues with on a number of levels). 

I guess a lot of people drive to the shops. (I don't, myself.)

Thanks for this.

I totally agree; this comment and others have changed my thinking on this.

In accordance I've added to the article this update: "UPDATE: 17 March - The situation is developing so rapidly that the idea of going outdoors is quite fraught. With Italy and Spain (I am afraid quite sensibly) forbidding recreational cycling (any ICU bed taken as a result of outcomes of elective activities would be tragic), I can see this apply also to climbing, unfortunately."

I don't see the positive effects of telling healthy symptomless individuals, who disinfect their hands before and after climbing, not to go to indoor climbing walls. This seems much safer than say, just going to the supermarket.

The author implies everyone has an outdoor local crag nearby, which is just not true for 90% of climbers. Plus, if all these indoor boulders ran for the crags, you've in the same situation anyway (except will worse access to disinfectant!).

The negatives of pushing this "avoid climbing walls" message are obvious. Climbing walls taking big financial hits, and taking away the main form of exercise most climbers have along with all the mental and physical benefits climbing brings.

The example of climbing walls shutting down in the face of COVID-19 is disingenuous. People are too scared to go to the wall (due to articles such as these). The cost of running the walls and paying employees when there are few customers is starting to outweigh the cost of having a closed down empty climbing wall...

One point that I think we all should consider, and also lobby where we can to our MPs or similar, is that they should be making it mandatory for walls/gyms to close. If they do this, many gyms will be able to claim insurance. It's much easier to bail out a few insurance companies than 1000s of small business.

The last thing we want is for us to come out of this, and all of the creative and small walls/gyms that are out there to be consolidated into only large corporate ownership. 

Yes, we need to start staying away from the Wall, but as avid users of their facilities and members of their community we need to do what we can to support them.

Sorry, but it is just not possible to avoid transmission in these situations, even if you disinfect carefully. You would literally have to disinfect after every climb, and before you touch your chalk, and wear a mask at all times to be even a little sure that transmission will not happen. You would also need to disinfect your shoes after climbing. 

I do not really understand why you would take the risk or the other people around you when you it is simply much safer to stay away. I don't think people are really understanding how serious a risk this virus is because of the potentially benign symptoms in some people. 

Yes, it sucks. It really sucks. I really want to be at the gym getting stronger, I really wanted to go on a trip this Spring to Spain. But there are things more important in life than my short term goals. 

All I can suggest yourself a hang board, and at least try and keep up the strength and endurance. 

Also, a wider point to some other peoples comments:

We are talking about a recreational activity (climbing) vs necessary activities (going to the shop for food) or driving (where cycling/walking is not possible). We are entering into a period of time where essentially our entire lives as a nation are going to become about trying to get through this with as few deaths as possible. We all need to start making sacrifices for this.

That's actually not true, there is research which shows that viruses survive longer in cold and dry environments - however I agree that is probably moot when we're talking about the outdoors when there are probably more significant factors such as UV and wind.

Given I don't have an outdoor partner, I am going to have to improvise.....this looks suitable...

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.4401982,-2.6108674,3a,60y,271.39h,76.65t/...

I agree with you.

I was thinking of heading to the Grit....

Western Grit -appart from The Roaches - is less popular and less well known - than Eastern.

I think it would be a good time to climb hard less climbed routes.

Sav

What do you mean by risk other people around you? You're suggesting nobody goes climbing. If the only people who go climbing are healthy individuals who are not in contact with vulnerable people, then your idea of social responsibility doesn't make as much sense. Surely the people who shouldn't climb due to some social responsibility are people who are either themselves at risk, or are in contact with others who are at risk.

We could ban alcohol and cigarettes too, why not! They lower your immune system, so we have a social responsibility to avoid these too. Personally I'm glad we don't live in that kind of nanny state, even though I don't drink or smoke.

This whole social responsibility argument is a bit of a slippery slope. You can use the same argument to prevent people from doing any sports with a degree of risk involved - climbing, mountain biking, horse riding, motorcycling. It's negative for the NHS, so don't do it...

On top rope.

Whilst I can see your point, locking people up indoors will have its own problems:-

- Peoples physical health, including aerobic fitness will start to deteriorate pretty quickly, and I cannot believe that will help you if you are then subsequently infected with a respiratory disease

- The mental health toll will be far greater than people imagine. Pretty annoying to hear people say just sit down and watch Netflix - my wife is a GP and is already having to deal with mental health patients who say they will kill themselves if confined to their homes

- Domestic abuse and alcoholism guaranteed to increase 

I think the situation is far more likely to succeed if everyone is not made completely miserable - the balance looks reasonable at the moment, people must be allowed to get out of their houses for exercise, even if only on a solo basis. The Italians are relatively passive, we will see if the French last 2 weeks without the yellow vests rioting!

I reckon the govt just looked at the Imperial College model and thought "half a million dead... oh f***. Shut it down, we've got to shut down." I think all your points are fair and important, but just compared to the health care system collapsing and that many dying, they're "we'll cross that bridge when we get to it" issues. 

Head point 

I understand what you are saying, and I would completely agree with you in normal times (i/e every flu season for example), but these are not normal times. I don't think that can be stressed enough.

I also completely take your point about alcohol/tobacco etc - but while these will cause further issue to the health system (and any smokers/alcoholics reading should probably consider stopping) but, they are aren't going to make the spreading of a pandemic worse. 

These are not normal times, and normal logic can no longer be applied because we have to seriously scale up the small impact out decisions are making in what is a serious public health crisis. 

I think you should bare in mind that although you may get a mild illness, but there is also up to a 20% that you, or any person you unwittingly give it to, can end up in hospital needing a ventilator with a serious illness. Sure, you statistically may pull through even with a serious illness (although perhaps with lasting lung damage, which has been documented in many people). Great, that's fine for you. But what about the 70+ year old that they decided not to give the ventilator to so that you - the healthier younger person could survive. These are the kinds of decisions being made right now in Italy, and they are coming our way really soon - and they will come faster if we spread the virus through careless actions. 

I can guarantee you that gyms will be forced to close soon, so you won't have to make this choice. 

I realise that these are shit choices. No one is claiming otherwise.  I have no local crags, and have gone from the gym 4 days a week to none. I am distraught over it, but it is the right thing to do. 

All your points are true, which is clearly why our Gov has held out for longer than most.

However, these are all short term issues that can be resolved once the crisis is over. Right now, in the short term we are talking potentially 10s-100s thousands killed. The government is currently saying the best we can hope for is that only 10s thousands die. I think people need to let it sink in that this is best case scenario. 

Alcohol kills under 10k a year. There are less than 1000 homicides (of which domestic abuse murders will be a consideranle number). These numbers are intolerable enough but could pale compared to 100s thousands dying because we all acted like idiots. 

Big Rock (MK) have just announced both centres to close from tomorrow.

You make a pretty good point. I suppose it feels unbalanced that a huge proportion of people are doing things that contribute to transmission. Schools are still open and people are still gathering with their friends and family for catchups and drinks. Mothers day is on Sunday - I wonder how many people will skip past this and how many will still drive down to say hello.

The government is yet to call a close to restaurants, bars, pubs, hotels etc. So the idea that climbing is worse than anything above seems wrong to me. But I can see how it still contributes to transmission.

Oh well, maybe it's time to finally build a home wall.

Hope so

I decided to call it, out of school from today.   The school are giving big hints that they really wouldn't mind fewer kids showing up and she's got set up with everything she needs to revise.  So now we wait and see if the Highers actually happen this year.

My word, who would click dislike on this? An excellent post with nothing even remotely controversial.

This always comes up when this problem is discussed (how many times do you need to fold a piece of paper for its thickness to reach to the moon?). It certainly seems to be be true for a standard A4 sheet. If you do it with an A3 sheet, the first fold gives a double thickness A3, so if that double thickness means it can now only be folded 6 times, it means that A3 can also only be folded 7 times. By the same argument it is true for A2, A1 ad infinitum however big the sheet of paper. But if this argument is valid, it means that an A4 sheet half the thickness could be folded 8 times, a quarter the thicness 9 times etc. , though in each case the total thickness would remain unchanged. So I need to try it with thin paper........

As for the original problem as an astonishing demonstartion of exponential growth, the answer is only 42 (despite only getting to about one cm with 7 folds). And of course after 41 folds you are still only half wqay to the moon!

I thought the hard lock down for a long period scenario in the Imperial paper was quite encouraging.  It means printing a ton of money to deal with the economic consequences of an economy in hibernation but the deaths and, just as importantly, the number of people going through ICU treatment are getting on for acceptable in comparison with normal life.   The 500,000 deaths and 8 million needing ICU scenario doesn't bear thinking about.

Even the 50k deaths in the suppression scenario might not be as bad as it first appears.  Some of it will be very ill people who would most likely not have lived long anyway (so a death attributed to coronavirus isn't really a new death, if we hadn't had an epidemic it would still have happened but been marked down to another cause) and the paper isn't modelling the potential of treatment and control options improving over time.  There's encouraging work on using existing HIV and Malaria medicines against Coronavirus which could reduce the death rate.

What will happen to all the climbing wall based BMC workshops and Mountain Training courses and assessments that are booked? 

Stronghold just closed and  Mile End Wall is closing from tonight.

Boulder Brighton closed yesterday.

I'm a bit disappointed that High Sports, who run the two walls I use, haven't closed. They've just sent an email out containing this: "With effect from 18th March we will be limiting access to our climbing walls to competent climbers and auto belay users only. Use of roped climbing lines will be on an alternate line basis and additional spacing required in the bouldering and training areas." I understand that it's a very tough decision as a business, but we are inevitably going to see closure of all walls very soon and I think it's irresponsible to pretend that these measures are going to make any difference.

Our small climbing club had a discussion and we've stopped all our wall sessions. I circulated this article and it was instrumental in convincing people that it was the right thing to do.

If you think her final performance would be better than the prelim one then get her to do some timed past paper questions under your supervision and assuming they do show improvement send them in to the school. Do this sooner rather than later as the deadline for estimates closes quite soon.

And if anyone asks, you ain't seen me roight? 

Our local pub shuts its doors this evening.  Who knows how long for.

I think I've read through the thread; perhaps I've missed something.  The lessons of China, South Korea, Italy, and now maybe France, as well as the recent projections from your own Imperial College team make it beyond clear that there is a truly grim potential.  Even our two clueless heads of state have modified their positions in the last few days.

So here's the thing.  Our (in the US) and your only hope to avoid a Northern Italy like collapse of the entire health care system is to try to control the average contact rate between infected and susceptible people.  ("Susceptible" is the term used in the mathematical model; in this case the entire population is "susceptible.") Controlling an average population parameter requires population-wide behavioral changes.  If everyone comes up with their own personal theory of what is right, there will be no change in the average---and the consequences are no longer hypothetical. 

Folks who speak of the relative isolation of the crags themselves have to factor in all the unavoidable contacts they may engage in on the way from home to crag.  It isn't just the crag situation itself that is critical, it is the total contact rate from the moment you leave home to the moment you return.  If you can manage that round trip with virtually no interpersonal contacts, to a locale that isn't crowded, then fine.  I know people in that situation.  But otherwise, you will be doing your small part to undermine the only epidemiological tool we have.

One of the things that have distinguished the climbing community is its heroism in coming to the aid of others, in some cases at considerable personal risk.  Over and over again, climbers have abandoned cherished plans and goals to assist others in dire need.  I think it would be rather sad if this great tradition of selfless action dissolved, in the face of a global crisis, into narratives about the need for recreation, and the accompanying rationalizations that allow individuals to pretend their choices have no consequences.

I fully take the point, but a difficulty is the advice which we are getting here in the UK. Shops, schools, universities, factories, pubs, theatres, etc. are still open for business - well, at least, none are yet summarily closed. People still need to travel to such places to go to work, often via public transport; people still need to go to the shops in order to get food. And so on. A consistent - indeed, enforced - shutdown of everything might well appear to be what's required, but we are not yet instructed or enabled to do that, and it is very unlikely that it could happen by collective individual action. Until that does happen, there is 'leakage' everywhere, and the effects of individual visits to the hills, for example, are just lost in the noise.

You may well be right; at the moment the US seems to be "ahead" of the UK on the road to social distancing. 

Meanwhile, here is something else to consider that is already a phenomenon in the US. Certain small localities, eg Bishop, CA, and Moab UT, are experiencing increased climber traffic, driven by climbers whose concept of social distancing is to leave the population centers where they live and travel to more remote locales.  A day or two ago the Happy Boulders outside of Bishop had 300 cars and vans parked, and in addition to the inevitable social interaction of that scene, it then rained and many of those folks ended up in town at the bars and restaurants.  The local hospital in Bishop has a total of 24 beds, with 4 of them in the ICU.  It will hardly take anything to overwhelm that facility, and the locals--climbers included--are acutely aware of the ignorant (at best) or callous (at worst) disregard of the visitors. 

A climbing group at Moab, where the concerns about large urban visitor populations are analogous, has started the hashtag #staythef*ckhome (don't know if this will get past the UKC censors).

All this to point out that the idea that with the relatively low level of population restrictions currently in force in the UK, traveling to crags can't make any difference should, perhaps, be viewed in terms of the local communities' ability to withstand an urban onslaught.

I shall be going out on the rock. its not being inconsiderate or whatever. even a busy day on the roaches you can avoid people. im just going to be sensible and not have a knee jerk reaction like some seem to be having.

Any such behaviour in the current circumstances is bovine, ignorant, selfish - and completely f*cking stupid. I don't think anybody here would attempt to defend it.

Knee jerk?  Here's a little light reading... https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fel...

Im on about going out for a climb on my own to crags where i wont see anyone. That is not causing any risk. 

Im still going to work and my kids are still at school. So Going climbing is not an issue. 

If you don't see anyone and you don't share holds with anyone there's no risk.  If you climb on holds someone else has climbed on or will climb on then there is a small but not negligible risk of infection.  Consider using hand sanitizer before and after every climb. 

This is the opposite of the real situation.  If you only went climbing and only met the same people regularly whilst climbing or only shared holds with a few people then little increased risk.  If you go into a household with school kids and you go climbing then you risk transferring disease from school to climbers or the other way or both.  If you want to go climbing then consider self isolating from the kids or taking them out of school and working from home. 

In the UK we have taken the decision that it's most important that kids can go to school.  That only works as long as all other social distancing measures are taken. 

In reply to Mountain Spirit:

Sav - in the nicest possible way - you're not being funny. You trying to make threads about you, when they are on something as important as this, is quite tiresome.

Do you have to drive to the crags and buy fuel ?

I don't drive myself and can do things to avoid contact on public transport.

Interesting paper - I suspect that there's loads of extra modelling that they've done that's not included.

So is the UK going for mitigation (one period of interventions) but higher deaths, or suppression (several periods of intervention over the next 2 years) and fewer deaths. Probably something between.

But here's a chain of thought based on some political scepticism...

• Most other countries do suppression - bigger economic hit, longer timescale, upside is fewer deaths.
• UK takes different approach - less economic hit, shorter timescale (this is key), downside is more deaths.
• UK back to "normal" whilst lots of other countries still in the middle of repeated suppression phases.
• UK then has an economic advantage allowing better economic recovery and growth.
• By time of next election, UK has performed well economically so lots of happy punters prepared to vote Boris back in, especially as the relative growth compared with "suppression" countries has hidden any Brexit downturn.
• "Angry relatives" from the extra deaths not sufficient to change election result.

The more of this I wrote down, the more possible it looked. Just the kind of strategy that you could imagine Boris and his lot going for.

You heard it here first on UKC 😢

Wonder how much an average bankrupt climbing wall will be going for in a few months’ time...

I say that only partly in jest.

I'm sure that we can sort out going climbing in ways that brings the risks of virus transfer down enough.

But the real issue is whether the travel to/from climbing and the climbing itself is now socially irresponsible because of the risk of accident that requires NHS intervention thus diverting resources from combatting Coronavirus.

There is definitely an air of this pandemic being treated differently because it's a new "unknown" threat whereas other known threats (e.g. smoking) which have a larger overall effect are effectively ignored. This is an understandable reaction by society but that doesn't necessarily make it correct (I'm not suggesting we should do nothing with regard to Coronavirus - merely that society's reactions aren't always logically consistent).

I'd feel better if I thought they might me switched on and decissefull enough to be implementing that.

I'm getting the impression they are winging it from day to day.

Devil's advocate: you go full lockdown and crash your economy. Cases in your country go to zero, most people haven't caught it. Well done. Then what? Your non-immune population is emerging out of lockdown while the rest of the world still has it because not all countires have coordinated their lockdown and the whole world can't do it. The disease comes back, do you rinse and repeat until your country is in poverty, which will kill as many as the virus?

In regards to known threats that have a larger overall threat in London we have some of the worst air quality in Europe if not the world and poor air quality has been known to cause serious health problems....

The major societal threat in London is knife crime - it was only the other day a 17 year old boy got stabbed in my local train station. 

Te key difference is that these causes of death aren't contagious so they don't grow exponentially through the population.

But smoking is self-inflicted and not contagious. Smoking damage doesn't multiply exponentially through the population; you can avoid it by not smoking. Exponential things have to be nipped in the bud. We didn't do this sadly.

This is my concern. We will find out soon enough. But agree it would be better if there was a coordinated global response. Hard as different timings and rates of infection in different places. 

The big problem is that there will never be coordinated global anything. It's hard enough getting a single, developed and peaceful country to listen. The students are doing pub crawls in headingly as if everything was normal. The uni has stopped lectures so are they going home to parents and grandparents? 

Knife crime wise. The crime rate is increasing in London whilst in other parts of the country it is decreasing. If one gang member gets stabbed his fellow members will seek vengeance and retribution on the killer. We say in the UK that America has a gun crime/shooting pandemic because of their gun laws and the second amendment.

Isn't decreasing air quality exponential? One year it is 50 in the ratings which is average then a few years later it is 15 which means it is very poor air quality. 

Exponential doesn't mean that, exponential is a chain reaction. Air quality decreasing quickly isn't exponential because, while it can change quickly, the change doesn't make it change faster.

Imagine a disease where each person who gets it infects 2 other people. You start with 1, then 2, then 4, 8, 16 , 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048 ..... after a few months you have millions. This is because more people catching the disease means more people spread the disease which means more people catch it  so more people spread it.....   So the faster it goes the faster it goes. We call this positive feedback.

Something like air quality, the newspapers often say 'exponentially decreased' but they don't mean it it's an incorrect us of the word, really it's just changed quickly and it doesn't have any feedback (air quality dropping doesn't mean it will drop faster and faster).

So yes, if somebody gets stabbed, and the stabbed person's friend takes revenge by stabbing two others, and their friends do the same etc then that is exponential but that doesn't tend to happen. It is technically wrong to say there is a gun crime epidemic because it isn't something that is spreading in the same way that epidemics do. The media don't make this easy for us then they miss-use scientific words!

I know I haven't explained this very well sorry!

Yes they do....

What about passive smoking - that isn't self inflicted and sometimes the inhaler doesn't even know the smoker.....

On the bus the other day there was a teenager sitting on the steps with what I think was a lit marijuana joint on his ear.

At one time it was HIV/AIDS that was the biggest exponential cause of death due to unprotected sexual intercourse and sharing of needles for illicit drug use... 

There was a huge advertising campaign to make people aware of this and people took account but I don't know why the amount of HIV/AIDS related deaths have increased again.

Passive smoking isn't exponential because if you breathe in somebody's smoke that's it. If passive smoking made you take up smoking properly then that would be exponential because you would make other people breath your smoke, they would take up smoking and other would breath their smoke etc. But that doesn't happen. Things with true exponential growth, like a new virus, are dangerous and need sorting out ASAP, becuase they accelerate so rapidly. Non-exponential things can be dealt with later.

HIV was exponential but I don't know how much it is spreading now, I'm ignorant of it (apart from knowing how to avoid it).

I live 2 miles from the roaches.i will drive up  I can go to spots where i will see no one. The risk of hurting myself and needing hospital isnt an argument. Im more likely to be hurt driving.  

Ive seen goverment advice saying going out alone with no contact is fine. Thats what i will do. 

Climbing walls like many similar businesses have collections of supporters who treat them like a bit of a club.  I am hoping they will have the sense to appeal to regular users, who if they're still in work are going to be having a rather cheap time of things, to provide them with some assistance to keep going, be that donations or be that paying for e.g. multi-use tickets up front to keep the cashflow coming.

I'm actually quite surprised Big Rock (to use one example) are saying they would suspend memberships.  I think they should actually ask if people are willing to keep them going, with reduced costs as they are not opening this might be enough.  As things stand I would, while this will go on (a lot) more than one month I have gone a month without using mine before when I've been away or ill.

We're not a business but this is how our Scout Group will handle things - we are going to tell parents they can stop paying, but ask them if they would be willing to continue to help keep the financial hit to the charity down.  OK, we're a charity and walls aren't, but the principle is the same and most parents just see us as a service provider.  I know at least one is going to continue paying for now.  Some will be able/willing, some won't, it depends on circumstances and approach.

I wouldn't be "donating" like this to support a Big Evil Corporation(tm), but I would do it to support a friendly local small business, which the walls still are, even the bigger groups.

You're in the lucky (it's not really luck, you choose to live there) enough position where the driving to the crag is minimal (you could even walk it) so the risk from that is pretty small - especially with reduced traffic on the road.

With the climbing risk, you've definitely got the experience to be able to avoid climbing stuff that is (for you) high risk so that should also be pretty minimal.

Problem is most of us would have to travel further, and many people haven't got the climbing experience to lower that risk appropriately.

So whilst it might be ok for you or I to go and solo familiar stuff that's not pushing our limits, that's not the way the stereotypical Daily Mail reader's going to see it 😟

Stay safe.

Good grief, were there really still people using climbing walls on Monday??

jcm

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not trying to be holier than thou.

If it's nice on Sunday and I feel well enough, then I'll probably go soloing/bouldering somewhere unless the government has further restricted us by then. But I'll adjust where and what to keep the risk of transmission and unwanted NHS usage down.

At least your local peregrine's should be less disturbed 😁

Our local wall is the Ice Factor and despite probably not being able to use it this month me and my wife still took out a costly (for us) membership. I hope this helps them stay afloat and I'd pay more to keep them in business to be honest. 

Not everyone who uses walls goes on UKC where people are being shamed for their intention to go climbing outdoors with sensible precautions or even to get out walking in the hills let alone going to the wall. I think it is perfectly understandable that many will have listened to the government advice and used their own judgement to conclude that they could still go to the wall with sensible precautions. 

I suppose so. There's no limit to people's bad judgment, after all. The bridge forum I go on is lamenting the death of an ex-member who felt the same way about a bridge tournament about ten days ago. Maybe that's skewing my view.

jcm

I'm not even saying it is necessarily bad judgement. I think it could be a reasonable judgement based on the government's advice that day.

May be walls will use community funding or seek government help. Actually the real issue is staff losing their jobs. Most of them won’t have a lot of savings to fall back on I imagine. At least they’re mostly young and hopefully could stay with parents to tide them over. As far as the actually companies going bankrupt is concerned, that’s not the end of the world. The facility will still be there, the market demand will still be there once things return to normal and the same or new staff could be recruited. It’s just that the ownership would change. Having said that, I suspect that a ‘dormant’ climbing wall doesn’t cost a lot to run if most staff aren’t being paid. Rates seem to have been suspended so the main outgoing would be rent and I suspect landlords would be accommodating. Government loans / grants should help as well. So hopefully most will survive but the ones that don’t would be investment opportunities for someone else. So I doubt most walls would close permanently. 

Wasn’t aware it was a crime. 

We were at Our local wall last Wednesday and Sunday pm. Today we all have a (slight) dry cough and are now in splendid isolation.

Given the timing I suspect The wall is where we got it, even though we washed our hands multiple times when we were there.

So if you get through it after self isolation etc, you should have immunity and not pass it on to anyone else. Silver lining.

Scientists are working on a test to find out who’s already had it. That would be handy. 

I reckon so but there’s still that slight uncertainty about whether it’s the real thing.

Still, if it is and it gets no worse than the current very mild symptoms that’ll be a good result for us.

That will be a game changer the testing so we can at least find out if we have had it

I went to the wall on Friday night and by Sunday started to feel unwell

Now have a few of the symptoms so won't be going back to work for 2 weeks which is not so bad as I am supposed to be on holiday in font right now anyway but I might not even have a job to go back to at this rate

Fully agree. I hope that Depot and Awesome Walls will not cancel my memberships. I want them to still be there, when we can all come back.

Thanks for your insights Misha. You clearly know the position of wall owners better than they do themselves.

It's not. It's just remarkably stupid and anti-social.

jcm

Hope you are all OK! Get well soon.

"The reason this is so serious is because idiots like you just don't get it"

Slight change in tone from last week?

That person last week seemed to think there was really nothing to worry about at all.

All I am saying is that the government's statement on Monday could reasonably be interpreted not to rule out going to the wall and I wouldn't condemn anyone for having done so - not everyone is in this UKC bubble which, also quite reasonably, concluded otherwise. I was in two minds about going and was only persuaded by UKC threads that I should not. 

At last some rational thinking.

A lot of climbers on here wont remember what it was like during foot and mouth. As a 95% outdoor climber it totally shut climbing on rock down. This is a reversal ,using government advice outdoor climbing can continue for some. I guess the anti climb outdoors posts are from people who dont have rock very local and its a bit of resentment. 

Ive just been to get nappies and was in close contact with lots. Going to the crag i will meet no people. 

Sure, it must be unsettling. Good luck!

I know stuff about business and corporate rescues through my work, though I’m not an insolvency expert by any means.

My point is even if a wall ‘goes bust’, that won’t necessarily it won’t open again. It probably will but with a new financing and ownership structure. In fact that happened with one of my local walls a year or two back.

Where a business folds completely, never to be seen again, it’s usually due to some fundamental and unresolvable issue such as consistently insufficient sales to cover costs (for example due to a poor product or competition or the market disappearing permanently). Whereas these are exceptional temporary circumstances. The fundamental business model of a currently successful climbing wall should still be sound once things are back to normal. Hence even if the company goes into administration, in most cases I would expect someone to buy the company or its trade and assets and carry on the business. 

As a general proposition, relying on anything Johnson says in a matter which touches upon your personal safety and not on his is, by itself, exceptionally poor judgment.

jcm

It's not really coming from Bojo, it's coming from the CMO who does appear to know his stuff.

http://chng.it/grZtNGXSQJ

I agree with you but I am not sure if doubling can be called exponential. I thought exponential means something like this 1 becoming 100 then 100 becoming 1000 then 1000 becoming 10,000 etc. 

2, 4, 8, 16 is also exponential, just a different base.  2^n instead of 10^n.  2 is the base, n is the exponent hence exponential.

Dictionary definition (not mathematical definition of exponential: 

"An exponential rate of increase becomes quicker and quicker as the thing that increases becomes larger"

If we are doubling every 3 days from the current approx 3k cases we will have over 3 million cases in 30 days, 6 million in 33 days, 12 million in 36 days, 24 million in 39 days. Seems pretty exponential to me!

Officially they have to close tonight now

Doubling is exponential if the doubling happens in equal time periods.  If there is a time period with the property that for each such period, the quantity in question is multiplied by a the same factor, then you have exponential growth.  This is because the equation actually is exponential, of form R=R_0 F^t, where R_0 is the quantity present when the "clock" starts,  F is that constant growth multiple (so F=2 if doubling) and the exponent t is the number of elapsed time periods.

Exponential growth corresponds to constant relative growth (usually expressed as percentage growth).  So if a quantity increases at the constant rate of, say, 20% per day, that's exponential growth.

Something to beware of is that exponential curves are often graphed with a y-axis that is logarithmic, which means that equal intervals on the y-axis represent multiplication by a constant factor (often 10).  When this is done, the exponential curve is a straight line whose slope represents the growth factor.  Those straight lines can look a lot more comforting than the skyward-rocketing curves that describe the actual growth with normal axes!

Maths have never been my strong point as I had a very poor maths education at secondary school.....

It held me back at university when my Microbiology degree. 

Sav

Sav, it would help with communication if you'd finish your sentences!  

.... It held me back at my university when I did my Microbiology degree. 

Agreed

I think gun crime in America can be exponential as some firearms like automatic rifles can shoot more than one person at a time. In the U.S a person can own more than one firearm.

You clearly haven't understood the point.

I have... 

One person can shoot two gang members at once. Then two people will shoot four - easily done with Ouzi or semi-auro converted to full auto.

Luckily in The UK we have good gun laws. 

I get it now

Which is the end of the debate. Inevitable I suppose... I’m not sure they *have* to. Don’t think the government currently has the right to force them to close but the emergency bill is meant to include this power. In practice though, I’d be amazed if any don’t close now anyway.

Beastmaker must be run off their feet!

No, not exponential.  Your description is exponential, but the underlying process doesn't follow the description, because after one person shoots two others, they are very unlikely to be able to go on and shoot anyone else. 

I'm considering getting a Beastmaker 1000 to do pull ups. 

I'd go for the 2000, it lets you do twice as many. 

Isn't that what the fingerboard is called?....

.... Katherine from the PT1 workshop suggested I should get a fingerboard with big jugs like the beastmaker 1000.

Sav

A Beastmaker is used for hanging exercises to improve finger strength (or ruin your tendons/ringbands if you overdo it, which is quite easy if you're just starting out). If you want to do pull-ups, then a simple bar for a door frame cuts your costs by about 80% (and can also give you various elbow/shoulder problems if you overdo it, so be warned!). 

I am London based and have no local crags.

I wanted to go four times a week and now I, like yourself, down to zero days a week.

S 

I have no problems with a simple bar.... 

.... I am used to doing them on a Beastmaker 1000 - that's all.

I do a warm up and rapid stretches followed by rings work and TRX before pull-ups. 

We did cover basic finger strength training in PT1. 

Savas, 

My daughter also has dyspraxia, im not a climbing instructor or have any official training to give advice. What i have is 20 years climbing experience at a ok level. 

At your level dont worry about doing dead hangs for your fingers. They are a harsh way of training on your tendons.very strong Finger strength at the lower grades are not needed.it comes down to technique and that is only learnt by moving on rock.If you really want to do finger hangs then make a board with deeper holds so your fingers dont get hammered. Something around 50mm should be ok. Get a pull up bar set up. You can get them from amazon for 20 odd quid. 

As my fingers are strong already, I was informed I just need to do pull ups. 

For certain reasons, I am not going to buy it from Amazon.

I can practise certain techniques at home like drop knees on sofas.

Also I am going to buying a suspension trainer.

At present I do yoga and IYT at home along with clipping practice and paying out slack practice. 

I know ive said i will climb in quiet places and i did yesterday.

What i saw as i drove past the roaches scared the f*cking shit out of me!! 

I am going back on what i said, we all have to do our bit for the good of everyone. 

We have to avoid grouping as much as possible

The fan is spinning and the shit is on the shovel ready to be thrown on the fan. The next 2 weeks are going to change the country.

Fair play to you Mark. 

Stay sane and safe. 

The shit has already hit the fan, it's just that we're a weeny bit downwind of the fan and it hasn't hit us yet.

http://www.alpinist.com/doc/web20s/newsire-covid19-presumed-infectious-on-r...

"If someone carrying COVID-19 touched rock—or coughed or sneezed on it—there's clear evidence suggesting that, yes, COVID-19 may be contracted via contaminated rock or plastic..." 

Please don't take any chances.

I've replied to you before but they removed it.

Squark told me that sport climbing is safer than grit bouldering.

It is irrelevant now. 

Someone posted this on Facebook. 

https://www.nicholaslewis.org/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelli...

Sav

If it's true, measures will be progressively lifted.  Remember Bojo is a libertarian.  He really didn't like doing this at all, so it won't stay in place for any longer than it needs to.

Plus the grit won't remain dry for long. 

So are you taking up my offer of Stanage climbing for the COVID POSITIVE! Solo climbing only, whatever routes you feel like, maybe even push your grade. I see my lifts and partners post was deleted by the UKC do gooders. What boring buggers, blitz spirit or bunker mentality. The latter is more common here. 

Spirits mentality by the sound of it

I hope it is true

There are two main branches of libertarianism....

.... I don't think he is the first one though. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarianism

No, he's more of the right-wing type.

I agree and I thought the same thing. In the Wikipedia page the left wing form is the first to be mentioned. 

​​​​​​Bonzo said he will look at the situation in three weeks and make any decisions then. 

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