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Avalanche risk in Glen Coe?

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 Suncream 03 Dec 2018

My partner and I intend to try our first winter routes this weekend and early next week, in Glen Coe/Lochaber. I'm looking at No 4 gully and Ledge Route on the Ben and Dorsal Arete on SCNL, amongst a few others.

SAIS forecasts won't have started when we're there, but there's a note on their website warning that avalanches may still be possible in sheltered places at high altitude. Should I be worried? There's a bit of a thaw and some more snow forecast before we're there.

If yes, can you suggest other suitable routes without avalanche risk? Will the routes I've suggested even be in condition?

Post edited at 20:24
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 Michael Gordon 03 Dec 2018
In reply to Suncream:

With a big thaw looking likely on thursday, I'd probably be more worried about the routes being in nick than avalanche danger. That said, Ledge Route gives a nice route up even when in summer nick. But we'll all have a better idea in a few days time. 

 French Erick 04 Dec 2018
In reply to Suncream:

What you need to keep on eye on is presence of snow and wind at the same time. The moment there is snow, you need to think of avoiding certain approaches and gullies even if it feels there is not that much snow around...let's face it there is always some breeze on those god forsaken windswept British Isles!!!

Understanding of what is a windslab and a history going back at least a couple of weeks (if there hasn't been a massive thaw) of snowfall is the kind of homework that you need to do to keep safe in winter.

It doesn't mean that you cannot go, it means that you must ensure you choose a safe-ish route to have fun. Avoidance being way more effective than rescue and owning avalanche kit (still advised by many but which I do not personally carry when climbing- my choice and the theme of many a past thread).

I would still do this and use the SAIS once it is up and running... I sort of build a picture of what has been happening in local areas and check and cross check when on the hills. My Sunday outings start on the previous Mondays!

Good luck.

 doz 04 Dec 2018
In reply to French Erick:

> My Sunday outings start on the previous Mondays!

> Good luck.

Mine usually finish on the Monday after

 J Glendinning 04 Dec 2018
In reply to French Erick:

Other than SAIS, are there any websites etc that you would recommend to help build a picture of what conditions have been like in particular areas?

 innes 04 Dec 2018
In reply to J Glendinning:

> Other than SAIS, are there any websites etc that you would recommend to help build a picture of what conditions have been like in particular areas?

If you check out meteoexploration.com and search for your mountain/peak you’ll get a weather forecast for your summit’s conditions.... but if you click on the “HINDCAST” tab it’ll show you the historic data over the last few days (inc. what’s happened recently with freezing height, precipitation, wind direction) which I find helpful to build up a fuller picture of what’s been going on up top.  

... but I’ll always read the SAIS reports, as they’ll  be based on observation, not just weather models. 

HTH

 French Erick 04 Dec 2018
In reply to J Glendinning:

I use the archive data from individual weather stations (I particularly use the bealach na ba one amongst many).

I also use a wind one which name doesn't come up to mind right now.

 French Erick 04 Dec 2018
In reply to doz:

well... mine do too occasionally.

 jonnie3430 04 Dec 2018
In reply to Suncream:

Look for the "be avalanche aware," app from the Scottish avalanche information service. It takes you through the planning steps for a winter day out. A really handy guide that's only new. 

 OwenM 04 Dec 2018
In reply to Suncream:

Always handy to have a look here http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe/

 ScraggyGoat 04 Dec 2018
In reply to Suncream:

Print yourself out blank SAIS avalanche forecast roses.  Check the weather forecast each day, particularly wind direction, wind variability, precipitation and freezing level and then colour in the Rose trying to predict the likely avalanche condition for the areas that SAIS operate. Do this throughout the season, or at least for the week before.

Compare to the actual SAIS forecast each day and try and understand / learn when there are differences.

You will get to a point of being very close to the actual ground observers forecast from the comfort of your home, and be far more aware than if you just rely on the published forecast.

Other than that always question if your plan is at odds with simple principles; stay out of gullies after/during heavy snow  or during heavy rain,  ditto for accumulation slopes, avoid climbing or lingering under cornices in thaw, climb with the wind to your back unless you are on buttresses (but consider the approach), think about your descent options as much as your climb, be suspicious of snow in sheltered gully tops, corrie rims and hollows, and there is no shame in taking a longer walk out in the dark if you don't like the descent slope.

Post edited at 17:10
 French Erick 04 Dec 2018
In reply to ScraggyGoat:

> Print yourself out blank SAIS blank avalanche forecast roses.  Check the weather forecast each day, particularly wind direction, wind variability, precipitation and freezing level and then colour in the Rose trying to predict the likely avalanche condition for the areas that SAIS operate. Do this throughout the season, or at least for the week before.

> Compare to the actual SAIS forecast each day and try and understand / learn when there are differences.

I love that idea! I might even do it myself as a refresher... complacency is often the mother of many mistakes. Heuristic trap and all that!

> Other than that always question if your plan is at odds with simple principles;[...] be suspicious of snow in sheltered gully tops, corrie rims and hollows, and there is no shame in taking a longer walk out in the dark if you don't like the descent slope.

Yes, I should perhaps have spoken of the outing as not just getting to the crag and climb safely...most accident seem to happen on the way out indeed! Thanks MrC.

Post edited at 17:07
 Wee Davie 09 Dec 2018
In reply to innes:

> If you check out meteoexploration.com and search for your mountain/peak you’ll get a weather forecast for your summit’s conditions.... but if you click on the “HINDCAST” tab it’ll show you the historic data over the last few days

Thanks for that link- very useful.

 


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