UKC

Hoping to do Western Rib, route base circa 900m, on Aonach Mor on Sunday 26 Jan. I am trying to work out if the turf will be frozen or not by then??

 Freezing level is around 1100 -1200 today and tomorrow and there is a bit of snow around. Sunday freezing level drops to 600m. 2 deg at 600m today, 0 Dec at 600m Saturday, then 1 under Sunday late morning. 

I suspect it takes more than 1 sub zero day/ night to freeze the turf?

Also appreciate there are a multitude of variables to also consider 

According to MWIS it's not even going to get that. The temperature at 900m isn't falling below zero until some point on Sunday morning.

Personally I wouldn't bother.

Looking at the MWIS forecasts for the next couple of days, it almost certainly will *not* be frozen. 

http://www.mwis.org.uk/scottish-forecast.asp?fa=WH&d=2020-01-26

Turf can freeze overnight on a thoroughly cold and clear night. However, we aren't getting any of those soon. Overnight temperatures and freezing levels are simply not where they need to be. 

The biggest variable for turf freezing tends to be snow cover. A layer of fresh snow can insulate turf even in seriously cold temperatures. There isn't much of that at the moment so if we did get a few cold nights it could freeze. 

Some other reasons I wouldn't bother with Aonach Mor this weekend: 

1) There's barely any snow visible on the Nevis ski centre webcams: https://www.nevisrange.co.uk/webcams/

2) Weather forecast is for 60mph S winds turning to SW. The gondola will not be running so you'll have a big walk-in and lose one of the main advantages of Aonach Mor. On the route you'll be exposed to the wind.

3) Weather forecast is for persistent rain with snow higher up, and hills shrouded in cloud. You'll get soaked on the long walk-in and then snowed on higher up. Expect awful visibility. Aonach Mor is a big featureless blob of a mountain and unless you know where things are relative to the ski infrastructure can be difficult to navigate. 

Thanks for the reply appreciate it

Fair points, well made, and good knowledge, thanks for sharing. Golden oldie, tower ridge, and dorsal arete are the height of my winter outings (and skill set) last year.

Sunday is my only chance to get out until March. Any recommendations? If I suffer, I suffer. Navigation skills are ok. 

Number 2 gully on the Ben? 

Cairngorms look better to be honest.

Weatherwise yes but less snow build up.

The day might not be too bad if the wind does die down a bit after early on. I would keep No. 2 Gully for good conditions. Ledge Route might be a better option, keeping the option to descend if the wind gets too bad.

Less snow than this? https://twitter.com/cicwebcam/status/1220645085290926081?s=20

Oh dear... Slim pickings

Those photos don't show the gullies though.

The east missed the dump of snow last week. Most of the gullies on Cairngorm are getting pretty thin or even broken by now.

This was one of the forecasts I was basing Sunday on. I was a bit blind to mwis forecast, probably had the blinkers on only seeing what I wanted to see!

https://www.nevisrange.co.uk/mountain-report/weather-forecasts/

Those snowforecast things aren't great, I wonder if they're based on some sort of alpine/continental model that doesn't work well with our maritime climate. MWIS is pretty reliable, they sometimes over estimate the wind but other than that they're usually the best of the options.

Windy Wilson is good as well, and able to ask specific questions  - although he may not answer them all 

Ended up doing number 4 gully on Nevis yesterday. Was surprised to see the north face car park almost full to capacity. Coire na ciste approach slopes up to no. 4 was hard going, dropping knee deep into the snow pack at times. Once in the gully it was a bit firmer and made for a really enjoyable day out. 

Video I took of another party starting their descent: 

https://www.instagram.com/p/B7zF-zmD8NQ/?igshid=cb55j6q3go89

Looks like you got a reasonably nice day after all! Hope you enjoyed the stomp up the gully. 

"Full to capacity" for the NF carpark usually means a line of cars along the dirt track stretching all the way back from the carpark to the bridge. Show up at 11am on a bluebird day and you end up adding a few hundred extra metres onto the walk-in! #lessonlearned