In reply to Mr Rain:
I have...
I climbed Lhotse a few years ago.
Your chance of summiting and indeed returning alive is highly reliant upon luck. I was out there when Babu died and he had summited Everest 10 times I think and he died because he fell into a crevasse when a snow bridge broke.
There are so many things that can affect your chance of getting to the top. but clearly you need to be as prepared as you can be both physically and mentally. Don't underestimate the mental aspect, thats what catches most people out. You will probably spend in excess of eight weeks in base camp and you need to have the mental toughness to stick it out. I was not the strongest climber of my team but I was the only one to summit. I think this had alot to do with my mental resiliance.
In terms of physical training I was at the time training to join the Royal Marines so my base level of fitness was quite high. I did a physical activity every day running with backpacks on, cycling, swimming etc. Make sure when you train, you do your normal work out then you push yourself just that bit further, you need to get used to not hearing that little voice in your head that tells you to stop because it hurts and your tired. Make sure you eat lots before you go out. If your carrying a bit of extra weight its not a bad thing.
Most of all, listen to the people around you (preferably those who have done it before) its a very different game to alpine climbing. Most of all, not being morbid or anything but, you have to accept that there is a significant chance you will not come home. If you can't accept that don't even think about it.
if you want any more info give us a shout.
Tom
