In reply to london_huddy:
This is my current idea of the decision at hand, would love for any corrections or any misconceptions I have:
There's going to be two sources of moisture:
- Internal to your sleeping bag - ie: yourself
- External to your bag - the surrounding air
The internal moisture has to go somewhere, and that's out of your body into the surrounding insulation of your bag, then hopefully out into the wider world before it condenses. A bivy sack will inhibit that dispersal of internal moisture by further limiting the breath-ability of the system. How much is obviously a function of the material.
The external moisture will become a problem when your sleeping bag surface is cooler than the surrounding air leading to condensation. This occurs through radiative cooling, which curiously allows an object to drop significantly below the temperature of the surrounding environment. I suspect sleeping within the element 2 will prevent this from happening. Rather, I'd expect the moisture to condense on the walls of the element 2.
The taking a bivy bag will certainly help protect against the external moisture, but may increase the problem internal moisture poses, so whether to take one depends on which one is going to be the bigger factor in causing your down to dampen.
In my own experience, the only time I've managed to soak my sleeping bag outer shell, is when I foolishly put the footbox in a sil-nylon bag to stop the bag getting wet from hitting the end of the tent. I was quite surprised at how much moisture must have came out of my lower legs and surrounding clothing. I've also had significant condensation just using my bivy bag on cold nights, as well as frost forming on the outer of the bivy bag. The bivy bag is eVent, so relatively a high performer in the breath-ability stakes.
Of course the possibility that I'm full of shit and deeply confused is there. Honestly, corrections are welcome before I freeze to death somewhere because I didn't understand moisture management