UKC

Hypothetically, if there was only 20 years of oil left in the whole world, what sort of civilization would imerge in 2031?

Everybody is aware that all oil, that will ever be discovered on the planet, period, will be used up.

Well, there'd be no fried food so health may start improving.

But then again, you couldn't make salad dressing without oil (vinegar and mustard on it's own it a little too tangy) so perhaps people wouldn't eat much salad either.

In reply to The Lemming:

fcuk the cars and chips - what will we do for massage!

In reply to The Lemming:
I would hate to think what kind of oil you are using for massage!
It would mean most of the climbers would buy a house near their favourite crags to avoid the three day horse ride.
People would be fitter, thinner and the pace of the world would slow by about two thirds so can't see too many negatives...apart from global meltdown, wars, political instability and anarchy, them aside it's all good here

In reply to The Lemming:
We would get a civilisation that was good at turning coal into petroleum products and with an increase in coal mining.
We also might be finding ways to capture and use the methane being released from thawing permafrost.

In reply to The Lemming:

Synthetic oils will probably take over until truly oil free forms of energy become as normal. But that will take a long time, considering all the main forms of energy on the planet is pretty much based around finite consumables such coal, oil and gas.

What is good though is that the change is starting to happen now so hopefully when the time comes we will have the sufficient technology to make the conversion as easy and as quick as possible.

In reply to The Lemming: its very unlikely that there are only 20 years left. We keep finding more oil just in more hard to reach places. This is why some studies have placed oil reserves at around 50 years for the last couple of decades.

In reply to fozmeister:
People would have to go back to climbing in nailed boots.

In reply to The Lemming:

I'm sure I was told that we had 20 years left when I was at school too.

In reply to The Lemming:
If everyone had a car like Num Nums, oil would last for a hundred years. I never put any oil in it and it hardly ever starts.

In reply to Tiberius:

I think that is gas...

Collegues at work in their late 50's were told that

I, 40's was told that

Younger collegues were told that too

We are teachers, guess what we tell our pupils?

Were I an oil/gas company executive, I would like the population to believe that for many generations too!

In reply to The Lemming:

Nuclear power.

In reply to The Lemming: well you wouldnt get winter climbers flogging up to Scotland from the south of a weekend ,so think how quiet it would be on the hills .

In reply to fozmeister:

>apart from global meltdown, wars, political instability and anarchy, them aside it's all good here

Wars would be far too expensive in terms of oil reserves, life would devolved down to a more local level so political instability and anarchy how?

Regards

D

In reply to The Lemming:

I heard about this one, not just the legend Stanley Meyer, but those cats say the Japanese cracked the puzzle of hydrogen on demand about 30 years ago; however to cut a long story short the technology was suppressed as it was way too in front of its time for the dinosaurs running the show to comprehend, so roll forwards in time to now...

This 20 years is the time of transition to move on from burning mud. We could realistically make the change in a few years, but the implications of all the cheap fuel which is currently going for a song would crash the system at the very least and the dinosaurs would suffer their old fate, so as the story goes we have to wait for them to evolve peacefully.

stay cool x

repost due to typo

In reply to The Lemming:

Lots of soloing as there would be no ropes! Unless we went back to hemp ropes.

In reply to The Lemming: from my last lecture given by our hippie lecturer i think he said that there where 20 years of oil left under the north sea. and he does like to make things seem worse than they are. i wasnt paying much attention thought tbh so i might be wrong

In reply to The Lemming:

Nuclear power, or Fusion Power. No big deal.

In reply to Dauphin:

That would be the end result but those countries who rely on oil are already trying to gain global footholds in areas of oil production and hence when the situation becomes more deperate so will the measures.
Once it had run out then everyone would become far more isolationalistic in outlook and like you say far more localised in terms of its production footprint. - there will be an entire time of civil and global unrest as powers fight for the last known reserves

In reply to fozmeister:

I refer you to my post about the use of coal.

In reply to JoshOvki:
To be honest, I think realistically climbing would end as a popular sport. Virtually all our equipment depends on oil.

In reply to Only a hill: My leather boots, alpenstock, hemp rope and steel snaplinks don't.

You of all people should know that.

In reply to Rob Exile Ward:
Of course but I don't think most people would be willing to go back to using that equipment. Besides, the manufacturing infrastructure no longer exists, and I think the world will have higher priorities ...

In reply to Only a hill: At times I can be wildly optimistic. When I talk to my youngest kids I can imagine them taking any changes in their stride, and human ingenuity and adaptability coping with transition from fossil fuel to other and possibly more limited sources of energy. After all humans have mostly made the change from human, wind and water power - to coal and steam - to oil and electricity - within a couple of hundred years.

But then I look at how the US messed up the 'stabilising' of Iraq - or how Putin is exploiting Russian energy reserves - and am rather less sanguine.

In reply to Only a hill: I wouldn't worry - yes, we use petrochemicals to make polymers which are what a lot of our gear is made of, but, when there's a demand there will be a product.

Prices will go up, that's a given, but polymers can be made from oil crops - or new materials will move in and take thir place. We're just entering the "Graphene Age" which will revolutionise just about everything!

In reply to The Lemming:

We could try training horses to pull carriages, ploughs and carts. We could build ships with tall posts on them and hang different shaped bits of canvass from them so that the wind could pust them along.

I think we'd cope

In reply to Rob Exile Ward: I genuinely am not a "conspiracy theorist" - whenever something sounds a bit "UFO" or whatever, I do a bit of personal reasearch and make up my own mind.

I'm almost totally convinced that the US (and UK becuase we do whatever they say) invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with "instilling democracy" or "political stabilisation" it was purely an act of removal of a head of state who shunned dollars as the currency for purchasing oil in favour of Euros.

Late 2000 Sadam switched to Euros. 2003 invasion started, and also in 2003...oil switched back to the Dollar..hmmmm, convenient!

The US doesn't give 2 hoots about "Democracy", in fact, they much prefer puppet dictoators that are sympathetic to the US aims.

http://henrywarwick.com/blog/2009/02/23/early-warning-petro-dollar-petro-eu...

In reply to The Lemming:

Then it would not be the cheapest source anymore and the main usage would have shifted to nuclear and renewable. Oil is only popular as a source of energy at the moment as it is so cheap. Once the prices rise, competition from renewable sources and investment in nuclear technologies will increase and there will be a gradual transition to cheaper energy sources.

Oil will never ever ever "run out". The price will just rise as getting it out becomes harder. Eventually the cost will overtake the cost of something else and there'll be a shift.

There is not a dependancy on oil at the moment, its just the cheapest thing for the job.

In reply to jackcarr:

Interestingly for the last 50 years, fusion power has just been 10 years away. And it still is......

In reply to fozmeister:

>That would be the end result but those countries who rely on oil are already trying to gain global footholds in areas of oil production and hence when the situation becomes more deperate so will the measures.

This is always true - no 'trying' about it. Much of the way the map in middle east is drawn up is a circumstance of understanding the power of oil would have on shaping the future from the early part of the 20th century.

Regards

D

In reply to The Lemming:

I think you'll see changes long before that as the price of oil rises in line with the cost of extracting rising. I predict diesel will reach £6.81 a gallon (£1.50 a litre) this year. Who'd have thought it'd reach £6 a gallon already or £6 for every 40 miles for your average car...

In reply to PaleMan:

The twenty years is the number of years of reserves that oil companies typically hold, i.e. based on current production/consumption. This generally gets misinterpreted as "Only 20 years oil left!" by journalists.

The comment that oil won't run out is correct, however it isn't the financial cost that will be the limiting factor but when it takes a barrel of oil of energy to extract a barrel of oil. The price at the forecourt will always go up as the finds being made are in increasingly harder places to get the oil out - the easy pickings have long been discovered.

ALC

In reply to The Lemming:

I am sure it said exactly the same in my physics text book at school 20 years ago. Not that I doubt there isn't so much of the stuff around, but I am sceptical of anyone who is prepared to give such a precise date to it.

In reply to Dauphin:


Wars have been conducted for millenia without oil, we're quite capable of killing each other en masse with simple tools. The end of oil won't bring the end of war.

jk

In reply to Only a hill:

Well said sir! Hemp ropes too! You must be be quivering with excitement in the ol' plus twos.

In reply to almost sane:

Present rates stand at around:

Oil 35yrs
Gas 65yrs
Coal 350 yrs

That's of known reserves coal has become the black sheep of energy except for in LEDC's and NIC's however if oil was to run out we would be left relying on countries who to be honest will not allow us a sniff Russia, China and India. The UK coal industry though at rock bottom would start back up however the price of oil etc would have to rise substantially for us to undone the damage thatcher did. Our coal remains deep, un hard to reach seams and presently is the dirtiest kind, which I would not forsee a problem to people if it was all that was left.

In reply to fozmeister:

What about oil shales? Oil reserves are a good bit over 35 years if you include these.

This oil running out conspiricy is idiotic and seemingly never ending. I was bright enough to read about geology and tell my teacher she was wrong nearly 40 years ago and got in trouble over it. New reserves get discoved and as items become scare the price increases and use drops. You can also grow oil (hence all the rain forests getting trashed for palm oil plantations).

One other thing about oil prices recently is that a large portion of the changes is nothing to do with the real effects of supply and demand or politics: it's commodoties traders and hedge funds playing the market for all its worth because they can.

In reply to The Lemming: as usual we will find a way to strip and country of its last remaining oil. The arctic will be the next place to get plundered! There's probably around 200 years worth left if you factor all that in.

Our civilisation has been held back for years due to the huge oil companies lobbying governments to stick with them. A certain Mr Nikola Tesla could have given the entire planet free energy for life, only problem was greedy people wouldn't have got rich from it!

In reply to The Lemming: Hate to piss on anyones parade but guess nobody has seen the reports of the asteroid Apophis? due to hit us around 2036 best have a good time while you can!!!!!!

In reply to andyb211:

The apocalypse occurs in 2032 so who cares.

In reply to andyb211:


By due to hit us in 2036 I guess you mean will be somewhere near us in 2036 with a significant but very low probability of hitting us?

And as for the arguments over whether the oil (and other fossil hydrocarbon) will 'run out'... Obviously it will eventually, we use it faster than it forms. Long before that it will become prohibitively expensive. And long before that we need to be looking for cleaner more sustainable alternatives anyway so arguing over whether we have 20 years or 25 or 55 or 155 is a little academic... It will 'run out' but it'll do so gradually. Despite that the process will cause unprecedented chaos if we're not prepared for it, our whole civilisation is built on oil and it's not sustainable.

jk