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Who's going to win the next general election?

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Oliiver 16 Nov 2013
I know it's a long time away, and a week in politics is classed as a long time, but who do you think is going to win? I think it's going to be a labour and lib dem coalition. I'd personally like a Tory party with a majority, however, this is very unlikely.
 Hairy Pete 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: The Sun.
Removed User 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

http://politicalbetting.com/

I think that as the economy improves the Tories will improve their position if they don't lose support to UKIP.

Oliiver 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: I think UKIP might gain 2-3 seats. But they'll scrape votes away from Labour and Torys. I think the Lib dems will do OK.
In reply to Oliiver: At this distance from the hustings, no one looks like getting an overall majority. All three leaders of the main parties appear damaged or inadequate and the UKIP party seems to be saying increasingly daft things in order to keep itself in the media.

Time for lots to change but right now, they're all as bad as each other and a hung parliament seems by far the likeliest outcome.

T.
 Duncan Bourne 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
I am betting that the conservatives will win and that the libs will drop out of sight as their credibility vanishes. I don't think that Millband is leadership material. But also it depends on the economy as when times are tough people are more likely to vote tory than when times are good.
 Fiskavaig 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: I do not think that slaughtering the badger population will win them many votes! and i certainly hope not!
 John_Hat 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

I absolutely hate to say this but I think It'll be a Tory majority. I think enough people will convince themselves that the Tory party have done brilliantly on the economy (as opposed to economic mismanagement delaying the recovery until 2014 and screwing millions of poor earners/the disables/etc in the process) to vote for them.

It's a horrible thought, and I really don't want to see it. My personal favourite would probably be Lab/Lib coalition, though I fully admit that would be the "least awful" possibility rather than actually someone I'd like.

Unfortunately the party I would actually like - middle of the spectrum (say where Liberals should be) but honest, competent, and staffed by people of integrity, with no inclination to go to war and a high incentive to stop wrecking the planet - doesn't exist.
 Edradour 16 Nov 2013
In reply to John_Hat:
> (In reply to Oliiver)
>
> as opposed to economic mismanagement delaying the recovery until 2014

Out of interest, what would you have done differently? The UK recovery is ahead of most developed nations so almost every government in the world must have engaged in 'economic mismanagement'.

I don't think there were many other viable options.


 The New NickB 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Edradour:
> (In reply to John_Hat)
> [...]
>
> The UK recovery is ahead of most developed nations so almost every government in the world must have engaged in 'economic mismanagement'.
>
Really, can you substantiate this?
Oliiver 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: If Scotland left the Uk in 2014, how quickly do you imagine it will happen after the referendum? If so, labour will have to rethink its politics asap
 The New NickB 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Edradour:
> (In reply to John_Hat)
> [...]
>
> The UK recovery is ahead of most developed nations so almost every government in the world must have engaged in 'economic mismanagement'.
>
A little fact checking suggests that this is, to use the technical term, bolloxs.
 Dominion 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

Boris Johnson.


I think the Tories are not going to do well enough for an overall majority, and then we will see Boris shoehorned into a safe seat at a by-election, to enable a Leadership Challenge with Murdoch leading the way in slagging of Cameron as a failure while enthusiastically embracing the pro-fracking Boris...
 thin bob 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
Unfortunately, I agree with John H & Dominion. .
The government have been stepping up by stepping on the necks of the poor and bribes to the better -off (housing bubble anyone?). as usual. the birds come home to roost when the better-off realise they're getting stiffed in the second term.

I's like to see a genuine liberal vibe, but they're tainted for generation, now
 Sharp 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: Honestly? No one, we're all going to be losers. Voter turn out will go down, no party will gain a strong majority and we'll have another coalition fettered with infighting and ideological clashes. This will go on for decades. If only we'd had a once in a lifetime chance to change our voting system to a mildly better one....ah Nick, if only you hadn't got behind AV and ripped any chance it had to pieces.
adam11 16 Nov 2013
I'd like Birdie Num Num for PM.
 Richard J 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
No-one knows, of course, but my bet is on a Labour majority that will be quite a lot bigger than conventional wisdom allows. Labour will campaign on the question - "are you better off now than you were 5 years ago", to which the answer will be no, despite the resumption of growth. Real GDP per person is still more than 5% below where it was six years ago, after the worst economic recovery this century. Growth now is welcome but there's a huge amount of ground to be made up, and given the population is growing at about 0.6% a year you need that much growth just to keep per capita GDP constant.

The big difference this time round is the fixed term parliament. 5 years is a long time to have a government; the Coalition is already looking like it's run out of steam, with growing squabbling between the partners and more and more difficult decisions being put off till after the next election. By 2015 the government will look tired and fractious. The other consequence of a long government is that the consequences of all the mistakes the government made at the beginning will be coming home to roost - the botched NHS reorganisation, the unfolding universal credit fiasco, the slow-motion disaster that is its energy policy. In past times a government like this would have stoked a short-lived economic boom and gone for an early election, but they haven't left themselves that option.
Oliiver 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: I think labours future relies on Scotland remaining in the UK, if not, interesting times for British politics. I doubt they'll be a party with a majority and even if there is, it'll be a narrow one by 1-5 seats. It's certainly going to be a nail biter for political analysts and betters.
Removed User 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Richard J:
> (In reply to Oliiver)
> No-one knows, of course, but my bet is on a Labour majority that will be quite a lot bigger than conventional wisdom allows. Labour will campaign on the question - "are you better off now than you were 5 years ago", to which the answer will be no, despite the resumption of growth. Real GDP per person is still more than 5% below where it was six years ago, after the worst economic recovery this century. Growth now is welcome but there's a huge amount of ground to be made up, and given the population is growing at about 0.6% a year you need that much growth just to keep per capita GDP constant.
>

> The big difference this time round is the fixed term parliament. 5 years is a long time to have a government; the Coalition is already looking like it's run out of steam, with growing squabbling between the partners and more and more difficult decisions being put off till after the next election. By 2015 the government will look tired and fractious. The other consequence of a long government is that the consequences of all the mistakes the government made at the beginning will be coming home to roost - the botched NHS reorganisation, the unfolding universal credit fiasco, the slow-motion disaster that is its energy policy. In past times a government like this would have stoked a short-lived economic boom and gone for an early election, but they haven't left themselves that option.

Interesting analysis. Something else springs to mind. If unemployment drops below 7% the BoE will consider putting up interest rates. It's possible that unemployment could dip below 7% in the next few months. If this does happen and interest rates start to go up there will be a considerable "feel bad factor" amongst mortgage holders which will hit the tories harder than any other party.

 Sir Chasm 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: The capitalists, sorry Chambers.
In reply to Oliiver: Boris to take over the leadership of the Tories, a massive victory for them, and a decade plus of PM BoJo.
Oliiver 16 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: Boris would be the best Tory leader atm. But i think they need another female leader.
 Chambers 17 Nov 2013
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> (In reply to Oliiver) The capitalists, sorry Chambers.

Why are you sorry? Whatever happens capitalism will be left intact. We might have a new set of puppets or we might have the same puppets. Puppets is puppets.

Oliiver 17 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: capitalists aren't fools, communists are though chambers.
 Neil Williams 17 Nov 2013
In reply to Sharp:

For all I support AV, and indeed full PR, such systems lead to more, not fewer, coalitions.

Neil
 Sharp 17 Nov 2013
In reply to Neil Williams:
> (In reply to Ben Sharp)
>
> For all I support AV, and indeed full PR, such systems lead to more, not fewer, coalitions.

Like Scotland, with our PR and majority government

I don't disagree that more coalitions would be formed with AV, but it's not AV that leads to them. Lack of strong support for one party causes coalitions to be formed, AV allows voters to choose coalitions more easily if that's the way they vote.

Provided no party does anything completely disastrous there wont be a strong enough party in the UK to get a good enough majority to have any sort of functional government without a coalition in a long time. Peoples voting is too fractious, AV would have addressed that, not caused it.
 The Lemming 17 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

The Tories are going to win the next election.

 JJL 17 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

I vote liberal and, in the absence of any realistic prospect of them coming into sole power, a liberal conservative coalition as now is my preference. The liberals have got more liberal policy enacted in the last 3.5 years than in the previous 35.

However, I think people will feel that the tories have done ok with the recovery and paring down government excess. Tey will feel that another few years is needed to sort the problems out. So I expect (as opposed to would like) a tory majority.

Milliband is the wrong one. Labour need to find a sparky, (probably female?) leader.

However, where I live, it matters not a jot who I vote for... which is another reason to vote liberal.

J

Oliiver 17 Nov 2013
In reply to JJL: Agree, they gone on about all this equality rubbish and the only female Pm has been from the Conservative party in 1979!
 Dominion 17 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

> Boris would be the best Tory leader atm.


Yes, because a media friendly clown - or at least friends with the media and their bosses - is easier to manipulate, and will do whatever his bosses tell him, plus is good at selling lies to voters, when the little lapdog that he is plays the game to full effect.

Boris is a f*cking joke as a potential PM, but a firm favourite for exactly that reason, He is owned.

Do you really, really want a PM who is so blatantly gagging to be PM?
Oliiver 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Dominion: no i think his persona would change drastically, but it could make him win a general election.
 Dauphin 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

From lovable classroom clown to authoritarian tub thumping swivel eyed loon in a micro-second. He's a reptile. With a reptiles understanding of the publics naive yet cthonic insecurities.

D
 thin bob 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ramesh-patel/growth-cameron-austerity_b_200...

"Cameron is playing the blame game to depress confidence and growth to justify austerity. Secondly, to use austerity as justification for a smaller state to gain lower taxes. Thirdly, to paint Labour as a party that can not be trusted with the country's finances again. Therefore, we Conservatives will win a second term because, people vote out of fear. The latter strategy worked the last time in office (18 years) and will work again because, in the end, elections are won and lost on economic credibility. Hence, as people believe Labour created the mess they won't be trusted again."
In reply to Dominion:
> (In reply to Oliiver)
>
> [...]
>
>
> Yes, because a media friendly clown - or at least friends with the media and their bosses - is easier to manipulate, and will do whatever his bosses tell him, plus is good at selling lies to voters, when the little lapdog that he is plays the game to full effect.
>
> Boris is a f*cking joke as a potential PM, but a firm favourite for exactly that reason, He is owned.
>
> Do you really, really want a PM who is so blatantly gagging to be PM?

You've been suckered in my friend.

Born in New York City, Johnson was educated at the European School of Brussels, Ashdown House School, Eton College, and Balliol College, Oxford, where he read Classics. Beginning his career in journalism with The Times and then The Daily Telegraph, he became Assistant Editor from 1994 to 1999 before taking editorship of The Spectator, a position he held until 2005. Joining the Conservatives, he was elected MP for Henley in 2001. During his period in the House of Commons, Johnson became one of the most conspicuous politicians in the country, authoring books and making regular television appearances.

Now show me where anything he has done since being mayor of London which would substantiate your slur; "easier to manipulate, and will do whatever his bosses tell him, plus is good at selling lies to voters? Please?
 The Lemming 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
> (In reply to JJL) Agree, they gone on about all this equality rubbish and the only female Pm has been from the Conservative party in 1979!

So you want to shoehorn a woman into a job in the name of equality rather than have the right person for the job?
 Puppythedog 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: I'd like to see more representation of some of the smaller parties, in my preference the green party but also I suppose there is argument for UKIP. One of the things I find so unpleasant about modern British politics is the homogenisation of the parties. I don't think there is much difference between Labour and Conservatives and I don't feel that the views and desires and needs of the majority are represented in Parliament.
I would like to see a Liberal Goverment just to see what they would be like without the attachment to the torries but I'm not sure that will happen.

I think the Torries will get in but there will continue to be a feeling amongst all the people I know that they don't know how because none of them would vote for them.
 Mike Stretford 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: Tories will get more votes, Labour will get more seats.
 Chambers 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
> (In reply to Oliiver) capitalists aren't fools, communists are though chambers.

Well, that's put me on the right track, Oliver. Thanks so much. I'll just disregard everything I've learned over the last five decades and bow to the superior wisdom of a child, shall I?

 jkarran 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

Hard to know at the moment. If the bubble keeps blowing up and the worst of the deferred public service cuts are glossed over then Conservatives probably have a reasonable shout of staying in the race.

No idea how badly UKIP will split their vote but there may be surprises even in relatively safe tory seats.

No idea how hard the LibDems will be punished for their time in coalition, I suspect it'll be terrible.

Who knows what'll happen with Labour which way they'll go and whether it'll work.

In summary: It could go either way but the LibDems will struggle.
jk
Oliiver 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Chambers: I'm seriously fascinated by you being a Marxist. I know there's no such thing as a wasted vote, but who exactly do you vote for ?
 balmybaldwin 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Papillon:
> (In reply to Oliiver) Tories will get more votes, Labour will get more seats.

I know that's possible, has it happened before (or vice versa)? It's a real problem at the core of our democracy that this is possible
Oliiver 18 Nov 2013
In reply to thin bob: i don't think we can trust the Huffington post, it's vastly on the left.
Jimbo W 18 Nov 2013
 Mike Stretford 18 Nov 2013
In reply to balmybaldwin:
> (In reply to Papillon)
> [...]
>
> I know that's possible, has it happened before (or vice versa)? It's a real problem at the core of our democracy that this is possible

Yeah 1951

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1951

I think it's the first time Labour could benefit as things suit them now.

TBH I think the Tories will narrow the Labour polls lead and maybe get more votes but never enough to get them a majority (thankfully IMO).
 Banned User 77 18 Nov 2013
In reply to JJL:
> (In reply to Oliiver)
>
> Milliband is the wrong one. Labour need to find a sparky, (probably female?) leader.
>

I think that.. I think they need to come back more central. But the party will be against that due to links with Blair.

I think it will be close.. too close to call, can see either 4 options of tories, labour, or each forming a coalition.

myth 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: I'm generally pro Tory. But I would like to see another coalition government with the Libs. I think it is a nice balance or right and left.
But I would recon the last thing the Libs want is to get in to bed with the Cons again.
 Carolyn 18 Nov 2013
In reply to The Lemming:

> So you want to shoehorn a woman into a job in the name of equality rather than have the right person for the job?

From Oliiver? Nah. He's hardly known for promoting equality for women, so I doubt it. Maybe in the name of a pretty face winning more votes?
Oliiver 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: Or maybe Margaret Thatcher was one of the best Pm's this country has ever seen?
 Banned User 77 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
> (In reply to Oliiver) Or maybe Margaret Thatcher was one of the best Pm's this country has ever seen?

Not a patch on Blair..
Oliiver 18 Nov 2013
In reply to IainRUK: uhm, who's "Blair" Ian?
 Carolyn 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
> Or maybe Margaret Thatcher was one of the best Pm's this country has ever seen?

Maybe. But even if she were, does that mean another woman is a safe bet for another good PM? Got anyone in mind?
 jkarran 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Carolyn:

Caroline Lucas. I reckon Oliiver would spontaneously combust. If she did nothing else she'd be worth it just for that.

jk
Oliiver 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver: Therasa may?
 Banned User 77 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:
> (In reply to IainRUK) uhm, who's "Blair" Ian?

not a shocking revelation.. you demonstrated yesterday your knowledge of history is shockingly poor..
 knthrak1982 18 Nov 2013
In reply to jkarran:
> (In reply to Oliiver)
>
>
> No idea how hard the LibDems will be punished for their time in coalition, I suspect it'll be terrible.

Yeah I agree. I'd actually like to see another coalition, either tory/lib or lab/lib. But that will need the libdems to keep a few seats. Not sure how well they'll do at all.
 knthrak1982 18 Nov 2013
In reply to IainRUK:
Ah give him a break, he was only eight years old when Blair resigned.
 Carolyn 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Oliiver:

Theresa.

A fairly plausible offering from what we've got, I'll give you that.
 knthrak1982 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Carolyn:
> (In reply to Oliiver)
>
> Theresa.
>
> A fairly plausible offering from what we've got, I'll give you that.

Preferable to Harman or Abbott imo, but that's not saying much.
 Carolyn 18 Nov 2013
In reply to knthrak1982:

TBF, maybe also preferable to some of the Tory blokes. But I agree, it's not setting the bar high....
KevinD 18 Nov 2013
In reply to jkarran:

> Caroline Lucas. I reckon Oliiver would spontaneously combust. If she did nothing else she'd be worth it just for that.

thats my vote sorted.
In reply to Chambers:
> (In reply to Oliiver)
> [...]
>
> Well, that's put me on the right track, Oliver. Thanks so much. I'll just disregard everything I've learned over the last five decades and bow to the superior wisdom of a child, shall I?

Oh please do! It would save us from your incessant whining. Come back as a new character....

You could be Oliiver's twin.
In reply to stroppygob: You could be Oliiver
 The Lemming 18 Nov 2013
In reply to Graeme Alderson:

No!

I'm Sparticus.













Sorry, wrong discussion.


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