UKC

Any ideas on the conditions on Helveylln at the moment. Hoping to head up there 1st weekend in Feb. Route recommendations?

In reply to Steve Dunne:

http://www.lakedistrictweatherline.co.uk/

In reply to rackandruin:

Thanks very much.

In reply to Steve Dunne:

I was on Helvellyn on Thursday, scrambled on Brown cove crag. Very small amount of wet snow, couple of photos here: https://www.facebook.com/pages/mountain-journeyscouk/103231179748054

Mark

In reply to Steve Dunne:

I recommend 'hope and pray'. It's the key to success in the Lakes.

NMM

In reply to Northern Mountain Monkey:

Although given that nothing has been in yet, the chances of it coming in during Feb must have increased slightly so maybe you'll be lucky Steve.

In reply to A Mountain Journey:

Nice one thanks. And thanks for the photo link.

In reply to LakesWinter:

Hope so. Gonna pitch up on Saturday night by the tarn and see whats best as soon as it's light. Fingers crossed for a massive dump and freeze!!

In reply to Steve Dunne:

have a good one, hope stuff comes in soon

In reply to LakesWinter:

Thanks.

In reply to LakesWinter:


neither probability or winters work like that. A proper cold snap actually increaces the chances that more cold snaps will occur later in the winter.

In reply to CurlyStevo:

Not in itself they don't! Overall weather patterns give higher or lower chances of colder weather. Being stuck in a relatively mild pattern since late November means that a pattern change will probably occur before the end of winter - this pattern change could make it colder, or could send it mega mild. It would be highly unusual, and almost without historical precedent, for the current pattern to last until the end of March!

Anyway, even 1998, the worst winter ever, had conditions in the lakes for a while in April after a super mild Dec-Feb period, there will be cold snaps in any winter enough to bring stuff in. Sometimes conditions last a day, other times they last a month or more.

In reply to Steve Dunne:

Were only amateur forecasters. I'd look at weather line before you go. Even if conditons are excellent/crap now they will probably change before then.

In reply to Steve Dunne:

One thing I have learned about our weather is it's very changeable and it doesn't seem to have changed for a while!

In reply to LakesWinter:

For the past few years we've had a few feet of snow each March on the Mendip Hills. Winter is not yet done...

In reply to LakesWinter:
Can you back up your claims that given a wet, stormy and not that cold december and january that chance of a cold snap in feb is increased compared to average feburary weather? Neither weather or probability theory tend to work that way. I think weather tends to follow patterns and given the existence of a pattern there is generally a slight increased chance the pattern will continue. For example its fairly well know that given a proper cold snap in a winter there is an increased chance of more cold snaps. Or in a smaller scale its around a 60% chance the weather tomorrow will be very similar to today.

Id like to add IMO humans tend to have quite a poor understanding of probability theory. What you are saying is akin to saying that given 5 dice rolls of a 6 the next roll is now more likely than normal to not be a six which simply isnt true.

In reply to CurlyStevo:

well, i cant be arsed to trawl through the weather archives on www.wetterzentrale.de. And I wasn't saying the chance of a cold snap is increased more than normal, more that with a normal chance of a cold snap in Feb there is a good likelihood we will get some form of cold snap.

In reply to James Jackson:

we dont know if winter is done yet or not. But historically id agree chances are it isnt. I doubt the last 6 weeks weather which has only really been proper sustained uk winter quite high up in the scottish highlands has much of a positive effect on that and I suspect somewhat of a mild opposite effect.

In reply to LakesWinter:

I think you pretty clearly did say that, I quote your earlier post


"Although given that nothing has been in yet, the chances of it coming in during Feb must have increased slightly"

In reply to Steve Dunne:

I'm with lakes winter on this one, the optimist in me has to.

In reply to Steve Dunne:

Thats a pretty optimistic view point, many years the lakes barely if at all comes in to nick. I wonder what the odds of there being winter climbing conditions on the first of feb are? maybe under 1/10 ? Must be well under 50 50. You need more than just snow it also needs to be either consolidated or the turf frozen and not crazy windy. Even too much fresh snow could be an issue! Stevo

In reply to CurlyStevo:

No, it's clearly not done yet. 100%.

In reply to James Jackson:
So we both agree more winter conditions are likely this season in the lakes (although yr feelings are a little stronger than mine). How about what bearing the not particularly cold season weve had so far has on this? Ive never seen any evidence to suggest this would increase the chance of a cold snap in feburary (which in Scotland atleast is regarded as the most reliable month anyway).

In reply to CurlyStevo:


Are you confirming my suspicion then that you're not fully human? Half-Vulcan perchance? youtube.com/watch?v=Iu1qa8N2ID0&

In reply to TobyA:
im not sure whats most worrying - that you suspect some ukcers are infact fictional aliens or that the alien you picked for me is completely logical and emotionless ;( stevo

In reply to CurlyStevo:

... I am not being 100% serious.

In reply to CurlyStevo:

Yeah thanks i'm aware of that. Theres always some scrambling or walks to be done i guess. At the end of the day i'm just happy to be amongst it!!!