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More HS2

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 Offwidth 28 Apr 2014
So the case for HS2 gets more critique yet the chances for it going ahead increase thanks to labour mayors apllying pressure to their party. A victory for politics over economics?

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/28/hs2-high-speed-rail-bill-com...
 GrahamD 28 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

We are spectacularly bad at making economic predictions as seen in the recent 'crunch'. Some strategies have to be decided partly on 'feel': do we want a rail infrastructure that puts us on a par with Japan or France or are we happy to run a Thomas the Tank Engine grade of infrastructure until it eventually falls apart ?
 Rob Exile Ward 28 Apr 2014
In reply to GrahamD:

Do we want to thow money at what is speeded up Victorian technology entirely inappropriate for an overcrowded and not very large island coming on stream in about 20 years time, or do we want to think of more creative, C21st solutions to - what problem, exactly?
 ByEek 28 Apr 2014
In reply to GrahamD:

> do we want a rail infrastructure that puts us on a par with Japan or France

Is that Japan that has had a stagnant economy for the last 20 years or France that has a hugely expensive rail infrastructure to subsidise?
OP Offwidth 28 Apr 2014
In reply to GrahamD:
I'll take your unfair 'Thomas' analogy, alongside more smaller investment in local infrastructure (with clearer, quicker gains) and alongside mass investment for better fibre based broadband, please. I'm not anti-investment I just don't believe the numbers on this one and increasingly vested interests seem to be holding sway over logic. Even with HS2 the order of investment seems to be the reverse of what's needed (the northern bits seem more urgent). Also, as a rule of thumb, huge slow investments have much more risk of solving today's problems instead of the problems around at the time of the delivery date.

I also listened to a radio 4 report yesterday and marvelled that there was no irony apparent whatsoever when the objections made by the civil servant against HS2 detractors applied even more to his own analysis.
Post edited at 13:12
 Neil Williams 28 Apr 2014
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:
Overcrowding on the south WCML i.e. the section between Northampton and London, and to a lesser extent commuter services around Brum. That's the main good reason for it, and the only one I support to any extent. There is little other justification, as most other capacity crunches, other than the south-of-London commuter lines which are almost impossible to fix because there's no more capacity and no more space to build lines, can be dealt with by way of longer or more frequent trains. Yes, even the appalling First Great Western - who runs 3 car commuter trains these days?

That it's being built as a high speed line is kind-of just that it might as well be one.

That said, we also need to invest in tram systems and electrification of commuter services, particularly around Manchester and Birmingham, and bringing them to European "S-Bahn" type standards.

Edit: And we need more home-working. Things like call centres and office jobs are perfect for that (and I hear Barclaycard have actually started doing it with their call centres).

Neil
Post edited at 13:18
 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:
> Is that Japan that has had a stagnant economy for the last 20 years or France that has a hugely expensive rail infrastructure to subsidise?

Yeah screw Japan, they have a rubbish economy! What a simplistic statement, a highspeed rail service won't make us Japan+, on the other hand it will not make us Japan*.


+ Japan as all the good things about Japan: Extremely advanced society, worlds highest amount of centurians, third largest economy in the world, Falling and low unemployment.

*Japan as all the bad things: Poor growth since 1990, Eats whales. (I'm sure they're plenty of others)
Post edited at 13:32
 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

> I'll take your unfair 'Thomas' analogy, alongside more smaller investment in local infrastructure (with clearer, quicker gains)

Short terminism?

 ByEek 28 Apr 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> Yeah screw Japan, they have a rubbish economy!

They don't have a good economy, compared to where they were in the 80's. They certainly don't have an economy to aspire to.
 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:

What do you call a 'good economy'? The U.K are no better off than Japan.
OP Offwidth 28 Apr 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

Just the opposite. HS2 as it is now formulated was maybe a good idea a decade ago but I think it is now too late and too expensive. The civil servant said the other local infrastructure projects were in the projected budget but we all know how budgets change and get pressured, especially when they sit next to a huge item that has to flex. Anyone out there think the NHS is going to cost much less in the future, or schools, or social support?
OP Offwidth 28 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:

They have a huge economy with some structural problems. They were the best in the world for a long time now they could do better but thats no different to any major 'western' economy.
 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

> Just the opposite. HS2 as it is now formulated was maybe a good idea a decade ago but I think it is now too late and too expensive. The civil servant said the other local infrastructure projects were in the projected budget but we all know how budgets change and get pressured, especially when they sit next to a huge item that has to flex. Anyone out there think the NHS is going to cost much less in the future, or schools, or social support?

That's still short terminism, why would a massive infrastructure project only be a good idea for a decade or two? I'm not sure about the whole thing myself, I am just not nearly informred enough. However, I get the feeling that any large scale project would be rejected in favour of more peacemeal and temporary fixes because of 'cost to taxpayer' and politics that involve the tearing down of each parties 'babies', the NHS etc.
OP Offwidth 28 Apr 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

I think when we get less london centric in our outlook it's easier to shift freight traffic in from the coast, so the long term required rail links are nearest major port to major city. People will need to travel less for business as meetings move more online. We are solving today's problem for 20 years time when they might no longer exist. If we had started 20 years ago the gains would be real now. I think Ed Balls knew this was a ball and chain and potential white elephant but has been knobbled by vested interests in the voter city heatlands of his party.
 ByEek 28 Apr 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> What do you call a 'good economy'? The U.K are no better off than Japan.

Agreed. But citing Japan as a justification for building HS2 doesn't really wash in my book.
 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:

> Agreed. But citing Japan as a justification for building HS2 doesn't really wash in my book.

Citing it isn't a good justification.

Not because Japan as a country is shit, (the U.K could learn a great deal from Japan, I can't think of a country I'd rather we aspire to.)

But, because simply building high speed rail, will not turn us into Japan, or France for that matter.
 Neil Williams 28 Apr 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:
Depends rather on your opinion. If you want a country I think have got things pretty sorted, I'd pick the Netherlands or perhaps Canada.

I'm not sure I think strict hierarchy and deference and similar are positive traits all the time. They have many positive traits, but I wouldn't consider them to be a country to aspire to in that sense - I'd put them on a similar level to us with different strengths and different weaknesses. Along those lines, we can learn things from many countries (and also learn things *not* to do).

Neil
Post edited at 14:12
 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

Put the money into Robots that we can operate via a virtual reality machine and conduct business meetings that way. It's the vision to be able to commit a vast sum of money to a much higher goal that I'm worried cannot happen anymore in government. But perhaps, that's better left to business to utopianise society, who knows?

 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to Neil Williams:

Canada's not a bad shout, neither is the Netherlands.

I don't want to get into quantifing the good of Japan versus Canada, I wouldn't assume to do that. They do have some interesting ideas surrounding work and employment I quite like, they definitely have their heads screwed on to technology and diet.
 ByEek 28 Apr 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

I think you have got completely the wrong end of the stick. My comments about using Japan to justify HS2 were in response to GrahamD's original post higher up. He said

"do we want a rail infrastructure that puts us on a par with Japan or France or are we happy to run a Thomas the Tank Engine grade of infrastructure until it eventually falls apart"

I say I don't want HS2 because I don't see that it has done France or Japan much good.
 Neil Williams 28 Apr 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

I'll give you the latter. I think they have some good ideas on some work things (e.g. on quality in factories) but what I know about their offices suggests a presenteeism culture rather than a meritocracy. I very much prefer the latter.

Each to their own though!

Neil
 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:

> I say I don't want HS2 because I don't see that it has done France or Japan much good.

Yeah I saw that. He's talking about their infrastructure, you are talking about their economy as a whole. They aren't the same thing.

 FreshSlate 28 Apr 2014
In reply to Neil Williams:

> I'll give you the latter. I think they have some good ideas on some work things (e.g. on quality in factories) but what I know about their offices suggests a presenteeism culture rather than a meritocracy. I very much prefer the latter.

> Each to their own though!

> Neil

Haha! There's always something that can be left out!
 ByEek 28 Apr 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

Well sort of. If adding new infrastructure was just a case of clicking your fingers then obviously it is a no brainer. But if you are going to spend the best part of £50 billion on it then I want to see more than shiny new trains for the money.
 Neil Williams 28 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:

What would you like to see, then?

Neil
 ByEek 28 Apr 2014
In reply to Neil Williams:

Investment in the existing infrastructure. The Trans-Pennine east west link is in dire need of an upgrade and I am sure you could make a case for a second line from Manchester to Sheffield (again). The West Coast mainline is very congested, but I believe there are a number of smaller schemes that could create a bit more capacity. Dare I even suggest that much abused term "integrated transport system"?

You can get a lot of upgrades for £50 billion.
 andrewmc 29 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:

> You can get a lot of upgrades for £50 billion.

Possibly not as much as you think... The WCML modernisation cost (according to dubious Googling) £9 billion to go from max 110mph to max 125mph (this is of course an exaggeration of the truth, just like everything said about HS2).
 Cuthbert 29 Apr 2014
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

not very large island coming on stream in about 20 years time, or do we want to think of more creative, C21st solutions to - what problem, exactly?

I never get this small island bit. This is one of the largest islands on the planet. Fifth largest from what I recall.

 Neil Williams 29 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:
"Investment in the existing infrastructure. The Trans-Pennine east west link is in dire need of an upgrade"

It's in dire need of more rolling stock. That would solve the immediate problem. That that isn't being dealt with properly (properly = doubling all train lengths *at least*, not ordering a few extra electric trains) is a disgrace, I agree.

"and I am sure you could make a case for a second line from Manchester to Sheffield (again)"

Much less so than stopping wasting capacity on the main TransPennine routes with silly little 2 and 3-car multiple units. These need to be 6-8 car trains all day.

Neil
Post edited at 15:16
 GrahamD 29 Apr 2014
In reply to Neil Williams:


> Much less so than stopping wasting capacity on the main TransPennine routes with silly little 2 and 3-car multiple units. These need to be 6-8 car trains all day.

All day is a problem, though. If you don't have alternative routings you can't operate anywhere near all day - there isn't any contingency or maintainance time. Which is a reason the HS2 is needed to increase network capacity.
 Martin W 29 Apr 2014
In reply to Saor Alba:

> I never get this small island bit. This is one of the largest islands on the planet. Fifth largest from what I recall.

Ninth, according to Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_islands_by_area
 Cuthbert 29 Apr 2014
In reply to Martin W:

Thanks for correction. In other words, a very big island/
 Rob Exile Ward 29 Apr 2014
In reply to Saor Alba:

Er ... you're being daft, and I was being stupid, we are the 80th largest country in the world,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_area

so forget about the irrelevant bit about being an island, (which of course we're not, ahem, N Ireland...) Geographically we are tiny, and if leaping Salmon has his way massively smaller still.
 Cuthbert 29 Apr 2014
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

Don't mention it in the first place then. I was quoting your good self, no one else.

This is the very big island.
 ByEek 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Neil Williams:

Agreed. Sadly, running the railways isn't about service, but profit (or lack of subsidy). Doubling train lengths will more than double costs, but not bring in additional revenue so will never happen. When will the government understand that public services are for the benefit of the public, not the private companies that run them?
 butteredfrog 30 Apr 2014
In reply to ByEek:

Unfortunately they wont, because they have just about privatised everything now, even the Criminal Justice System and parts of HMRC are getting sold off.

The probation service is to be split between GeoAmey and G4S on a payment by results basis. Two companies currently under investigation for multi-million pound payments by result fraud in the sectors they already control.
 Mike Stretford 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth: The case for a new north-south trunk line is strong, not sure about the high speed bit (or such high speed). The west and east coast lines will need more maintenance over time, which has a crippling effect on services. Rail use in increasing, and has done so over the IT revolution of the last 20 years, so this argument that fast broadband will reduce the need for travel doesn't stack up. Some very short sighted comments on here.

The current HS2 proposal seems very expensive and I'd assume the cost could be brought down.... but infrastructure is expensive. I think we've been relying on Victorian infrastructure for so long we've forgotten we do have to invest in theses things.
OP Offwidth 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Mike Stretford:

I work with many people who have cut back massively on travel for business. The ability to video conference in a sensible usable way at low cost is pretty new to IT. In my place we have cut overseas trips for some work areas in half.
 Neil Williams 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

We really aren't using videoconferencing to any extent. Nobody wants to see me sitting on the sofa in my dressing gown when working from home.

We do however use teleconferencing and screen sharing, and that does massively reduce travel.

Neil
 Mike Stretford 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

> In my place we have cut overseas trips for some work areas in half.

Yeah, here too, but day trips within the UK are still very useful and I can't see them being replaced with video conferencing, which as you say we have now.
OP Offwidth 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Mike Stretford:
We have replaced UK meetings with video conference as well its just the cost saving pressure isnt so severe so its more optional. I know full well that face-to-face meetings are very important at times but most day trips I take are pointless and expensive. When I head south to London in the morning for an 11:00am meeting the train I'm in is nearly always half empty. On the way back its rammed. There is still a lot that could be done with better pricing on north south lines.
Post edited at 11:56
 Mike Stretford 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth: You're Nottingham, no? The west coastline is the busiest. But I do agree, pricing is a problem. When I use it to MK it's always rammed off peak, while peak travellers tell me it's not always busy.

I agree that the current proposals are not the best but I think a new trunk line is the best option. What swings it for me is that the is little capacity for growth at the moment (the southern sections of the WCML limiting this), and I'd expect more maintenance required over time, which does cripple services. A new line built to modern specs seems like good infrastructure spending to me.

 Neil Williams 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Mike Stretford:
The cause of off-peak WCML overcrowding on London Midland is the rolling stock contracts. Essentially the stock is contracted for a number of miles. Because LM are the budget option, they can't make enough money off additional off-peak fares to increase those contracts (they can off the rather higher peak fares, so they do, though a few of their peak services are still heavily overcrowded). One of the disadvantages of not just buying stock outright as BR would.

Specifically on the Crewe route it's a different problem - the length of the bay platform at Crewe (there isn't another option for layover at certain times of day). Though I believe they are looking at running 8-car south of Stafford where it's busiest and there is room to store the other 4.

As for Virgin, peak emptiness is because of the outrageous fares, which are set to maximise profit rather than ridership. A side effect of this is the extreme overcrowding around the start of the evening off peak period.

Neil
Post edited at 13:14
OP Offwidth 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Neil Williams:

So when you add up all these effects and the meetings that could (and will in a decade) be video conferenced and the likely strain on the departmental budget (and knock on to other more clearly valuable but smaller infrastructure projects in the face of almost certain future government spending pressure) the case for HS2 capacity isn't anything like as strong as it seems.
 Neil Williams 30 Apr 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

I think if HS2 is cancelled, there should be a formal Government home-working policy adopted. The civil service could lead the way, but then companies encouraged via tax-breaks etc, as well as the railway fare structure being tweaked to replace season tickets with bulk-buys usable in whatever way you like (presently you are effectively penalised for only going to the office 2 days a week, say, whereas this should be encouraged).

Neil
OP Offwidth 01 May 2014
In reply to Neil Williams:

Huge numbers of people go to work every day who don't need to be there. If we focused on what people did a lot more than policing them to ensure they do something, all our work and transport environments would improve. Just this week I've worked twice in Malaysia and both times using Skype that my Uni doesn't approve of but that I use because it works. Sometimes we have to wait until the IT man has given up trying to get our offical video conference system working and left, before we boot up our lab-tops and start a pre-exam board. We have to adapt a few things and say the odd bit twice due to drop outs but the money saved is huge and if we need another quick meeting a few days later when we spot something we forgot thats cheap and easy too. We have all met face to face many times so the working relationship over the technology is easy.
 Andy Long 01 May 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> worlds highest amount of centurians

> snigger, snigger. Sorry, can't help it. Made my day. Should go in the "Dumb Britain" column of "Private Eye".

 Cuthbert 01 May 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

I'd like to see duplex trains on HS2 when it is built, similar to those on LGVs.
 Rob Exile Ward 01 May 2014
In reply to Saor Alba:

How much would it cost to convert existing lines to duplex?
 FreshSlate 01 May 2014
In reply to Andy Long:
Centenarians*

That quoting feature, tough to work out isn't it mate?
Post edited at 22:18
 Cuthbert 02 May 2014
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

I guess £50 billion+ as the entire railway would have to be ripped up, signaling changed, more land taken and you wouldn't get the benefits as you still couldn't go as fast.

Building new in this case is cheaper I think and also better.

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