In reply to ablackett:
> I hadn't identified 2 as a vector cross product
Fortunately I've been doing quite a bit of vector geometry and differential geometry lately, so it's in the forefront of my mind.
> are you talking about a centre of mass type argument for expectation? If so, I like it.
Yes, that's the general idea. I was quite pleased that it worked out, I started out just with a general suspicion that there was going to be a nice geometric solution. My instinct was that pi was going to be involved, but drawing it out made it clear it was more centre-of-mass-of-a-triangle. I definitely didn't fancy doing it probabilistically/statistically.
> I must admit that I generated 1000 values in excel first to see what I was aiming for
Likewise, for verification!
So are you up for climbing this weekend, or what?