In reply to Jon Stewart:
> On the contrary. The optimism bias is hardwired in about 80% of people and just like an optical illusion, knowing it isn't real makes no difference.
I'm pretty sure you're right and I'm wrong but I can't quite get my head around how someone can believe something which they have now discovered to be false, maybe optimism bias is just going "la, la, la" and ignoring the facts. I see an optical illusion, but I don't believe it because I can scientifically examine the illusion and conclude that, for e.g., the straw isn't actually bent. If you believe life will be good to you for no reason that's an illusion, if you review the evidence and take a more balanced view then you're forming a reasoned belief and no longer the subject of your optimism bias.
So I know that by smoking I'll increase my risk of cancer and to me that's all there is too it. The way I thought it worked was that someone suffering from optimism bias would think the same but with the addition that out of all the smokers, they'd think that they're in the segment that wont get cancer without any evidence to support that. I thought that meant that they still have their rose tinted glasses on and they're just refusing to accept the nature of probability. i.e. their illusion hasn't been shattered.
Post edited at 20:56