UKC

Why is everyone (media and Conservatives) obsessed with the idea that if Labour get a majority, they will be forced to form a coalition or at least an informal pact with SNP.
Surely they would form a coalition of some sort with Lib Dems.
The polls suggest either a a slight conservative majority or a slight labour majority with enough Lib Dem seats to make the difference for either winner. Lib Dems would be happy to be the kingmaker for either party..

In reply to billb:
I think you have misunderstood the polls. They suggest that neither Labour or Conservatives would have enough seats to form a government even with the support of (a much reduced) Liberal Democtrats.

Labour and Conservatives are looking at 270 seats each +/- 10, Lib Dems are looking at 25 +/- 5, a majority is 326.

In reply to Moorside Mo:

Having re looked at the polls - yes- Lib Dems may not be enough to carry forward a parliament.

In reply to Moorside Mo:



Looking at those figures and taking into account the reliability of polls I'd say that there is a strong likelihood either labour or conservative being able to form a majority government with the lib dems.

On the whole I'm inclined to think that polls should be banned in the run up to an election. There serve little purpaose and there will always be too many voters who are naive enough to let them influence their choice at the ballot box.

In reply to timjones:


They are just a bit of fun. Do they really influence voting?

In reply to billb:

I imagine the Libdems will look to the Tories first and foremost, better the devil you know.

In reply to timjones:

there will always be some that follow the crowd, but you'd have to remove tabloid influence, unions etc. it would be impossible. You just have to trust the voters to make educated, well thought out choices.... which of course means we're doomed!!

In reply to billb:


Now why would the prospect of a minority government led by a party, possibly with fewer seats and votes than another party, with an unpopular leader of questionable competance, propped up by a minority party for which only about 4% of the UK population voted and only 8% could vote for even if they wanted to, which wants to push the government further away from the centre ground of politics and which has an unhidden agenda to break up the very country its trying to govern despite losing a referendum on that very issue by a substantial margin quite recently be of any great interest to people who take an interest in politics?

In reply to pec:

Assuming I understood that rabble , you got my question wrong. I am saying it is more likely that Lib Dems will be the kingmakers not SNP. Perhaps with help from other minor parties like greens if need be.

Likely governments:
Conservative with libdem or ukip support

Labour with lidem plus maybe green support.

In reply to timjones:


I'd put money on you being wrong. £10 to a charity of your choice if either Labour / Lib Dem or Conservative / Lib Dem have combined seats of 326 or more.

In reply to billb:


UKIP won't make a difference, not in seats anyway. If they do better than expected, it will mainly to the detriment of the Conservatives. The DUP could bring 8-10 seats, but still probably won't be enough.


Greens will only win one, again DUP would possibly support as would SDLP, but again unlikely to be enough without SNP.

In reply to ByEek:


I think they certainly have the potential to... If a poll came out for your constituency showing 80% support labour for example, as a Labour voter you may be less likely to go out of your way to vote as you "know" that it's going labour's way anyway. Similarly, it might galvanize what Con/Libdem/ukip supporters there are to make sure they vote, or equally reduce motivation as there is "no point"

Therefore, generally I think Polls discourage a large turnout except where they show the likely result to be close

In reply to billb:

For me the key part of this is the seeming failure of Labour to engage the Scottish electorate, if the polls are right and the SNP is going to wipe out the Labour seats in Scotland, I think Ed Milliband and possibly David Cameron will be dumped and we will head back to another General election before the full term is completed. I don't think an SNP driven coalition will be workable or supported by the British electorate.

In reply to The New NickB:


I admire your confidence to bet on the polls being accurate to within such a small percentage but I'm not sure that I'm confident enough to bet the other way.

I think it's a a lib dem/labour or lib dem/conservative coalition is still a distinct possibility alongside minority government by either labour or conservative, looking at the options if lib dem can't cut it for either party then a minority government looks more attractive than any of the alternative coalition possibilities to me.

Interesting times and it's all still there to play for, it may just be down to who commits the biggest gaffe over the next few weeks. I just wish they would all sell their policies instead of constantly picking holes in their opponents.

In reply to ByEek:


They quite possibly become more serious than a bit of fun when the press start pushing them.

In reply to billb:

I answered the question you asked

> "Why is everyone (media and Conservatives) obsessed with the idea that if Labour get a majority, they will be forced to form a coalition or at least an informal pact with SNP." >


I'm afraid as others have said, your reading of the polls is probably wrong.

In reply to timjones:

It's a bit more complicated than just looking at the percentages each party is polling, it's the effect of variation in the marginals. In this respect Michael Ashcroft has been very helpful. You can look at outcomes that are way in excess of even the worst cases of polls being wrong and still the Lib Dems won't be king makers.

In reply to billb:

Err, if Labour get a majority of seats in Westminster then they don't need to form a coalition as the sum of all the other parties would be less than half.

If on the other hand you mean "If Labour win most seats but don't get a majority" then they'll jump in to bed with whoever is most convenient.

In reply to The New NickB:


That's not really true. E.g. the 90% estimates here (outer columns), which seems as credible as any other forecast.

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

In reply to MG:
Seems an outlier. I'll still happily offer the bet!

Actually it's just plain wrong, 10+% variation is bonkers.

In reply to Bob:



you know what I meant


That is the assumption you are making that I am questioning.

In reply to billb:

If there's one minor party that will "fill up the numbers/seats" then it makes sense for negotiations to be done with that party unless that party is beyond the pail. For Labour the order of preference would probably be Lib-Dem, SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Irish parties. Once you have to bring two parties on board then you are not only managing the conflicts between the policies of Labour and those two parties but the conflicts between the policies of the two parties themselves.

There are 59 Scottish seats and predictions give the SNP a near clean sweep. If the polls are right and the Conservatives and Labour are roughly neck and neck at 270 seats then the SNP would give either party the parliamentary majority, though would the SNP even talk to the Tories? There's a strong disagreement over the continued presence of the nuclear sub facilities.

In reply to billb:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/20/britain-criminally-stu...

"Personally, I think it might be invigorating to have a hung parliament where, before any law was passed, the government had to have an argument with a Scottish person."

Very funny take on it.

In reply to The New NickB:


It's the fact that it is so complicated that leaves me somewhat sceptical about any attemptsat predicting the outcome

We've seen them get it wrong before and I'm sure that we will see it again.

In reply to Bob:

Labour have ruled out forming a coalition with SNP. Assuming we can believe that and I do (That's for another debate though), then we are more likely to end up with some supply and demand deal vote by vote. Fun times..

In reply to timjones:


1992 is the obvious example, it led to something of a revolution in polling, but significantly, they would have to get it much more wrong than in 1992, for me to be proved wrong!

In reply to billb:

That's what happened during 1974 with Harold Wilson's government. Whether it's an effective means of government, phew!