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Hi,
I know there are lots of threads about current conditions already (which I appreciate, they're really helpful! Keep doing them) but I thought it might be useful to have a thread to discuss what we think conditions will be in the near future (based on forecasts, experience, and current conditions).
I will be in Scotland in 6 days, but this thread isn't just meant to be for me, I guess it could help a lot of winter climbers out there.
From what I've heard, read, and seen in pictures, I gather that about one to two weeks ago, Scotland saw heavy snowfall, which was fun in a way because the winter season finally got going but the snow was very powdery and deep so made for tiring approaches, avalanche-danger in gullies, plowing/swimming on less steep terrain and made it harder to find gear-placements. While I guess we should still avoid gullies (avalanches), I hear conditions have improved, some classic climbs are tracked, and the powdery snow has consolidated quite a bit and last weekend (16&17) was a blast to climb.
Upcoming forecasts unfortunately give non-freezing temperatures from Friday onwards. I hope these forecasts will be wrong, but if not, it's not very good. I'm guessing we'll see thaw-avalanches. It would be nice if after a short thaw we would see freezing temperatures (would help with ice build-up) but I don't see these temperatures forecasted any time soon.
I will be arriving the 26th, and climb from the 27th till the 3rd (8days) and was hoping to do some classic ridges, some steeper technical lines, and some nice ice gullies.
- I think the classic ridges or buttresses will be okay to do. These are almost always in pretty good nick. Although powder/unconsolidated snow can make them a bit more tricky/tiring, they should be fine I guess. I was thinking of stuff like Tower Ridge or Fingers Ridge...
- Steeper technical lines will probably be very rimed and not so iced, I'm guessing? They'll be climbable, but will probably climb a bit slower than usual with the digging/scraping and gear placement search needed in these conditions? I was thinking of stuff like The Hoarmaster or The Message or some longer lines up Carn Etchachan...
- Ice gullies don't seem to have formed well enough? I was thinking of doing maybe Point Five Gully? I guess ice lines should, unfortunatly, best be avoided as they haven't had enough time to 'get in' and with warmer temps will only get 'less in'?
What do you guys think? I am competent enough to judge conditions for myself and know what I can, can't, should or shouldn't climb but in order for me to be able to judge the conditions I need to be in Scotland, it's pretty hard to do from behind my laptop in Belgium. And since I like to prepare my trips a little, I thought UKC might come in handy!
I know the tab under Logbooks that shows me what has been recently climbed, but that doesn't mean this thread can't be a useful platform either.
Cheers,
Denis
Post edited at 19:13
1
In reply to HosteDenis:
I was going to post some sarcastic comment involving crystal balls and geese until I saw you are from Belgium, so I will give you the benefit of the dobt...
for starter fingers ridge is a proper climb and not a ridge scramble, and is definitely not acceptable or safe under thaw conditions! nether are things like the message. the only things that are acceptable under thaw conditions (but safe is a separate issue) are low grade ridges and deep snow filled gullies where you are not bottoming out through the snow. I wouldn't hold out your hopes for anything better given the current forecast.
as for conditions in a few weeks time, seriously, you wont get a sensible answer to that. conditions change on a daily basis and at best weather forecasts are usefull up to 5 days in advance.
I was going to post some sarcastic comment involving crystal balls and geese until I saw you are from Belgium, so I will give you the benefit of the dobt...
for starter fingers ridge is a proper climb and not a ridge scramble, and is definitely not acceptable or safe under thaw conditions! nether are things like the message. the only things that are acceptable under thaw conditions (but safe is a separate issue) are low grade ridges and deep snow filled gullies where you are not bottoming out through the snow. I wouldn't hold out your hopes for anything better given the current forecast.
as for conditions in a few weeks time, seriously, you wont get a sensible answer to that. conditions change on a daily basis and at best weather forecasts are usefull up to 5 days in advance.
5
In reply to Webster:
Thanks for the reply! Of course under serious thawing conditions fingers ridge or the steeper technical lines like hoarmaster or the message are out of the question (I just named a few I wanted to do, I didn't specifically wanted to do those, I have a list of about 20 and will see in Scotland pending conditions). And even though I do expect conditions to worsen over the next week as I wrote in my post I don't expect them (maybe wrongly so) to be thawing so much that these things will become very dangerous immediately and I should write them off already (key words here being 'immediately' and 'already'). So thanks for your post, I might have been overly optimistic about conditions, in which case starting this thread wasn't such a bad idea!
And I know conditions are hard to predict and based on ever-changing forecasts, so yes, of course ideas about how the conditions will evolve are only sensible for the next few days (not the next few weeks). But I meant the thread title as in that we could get this thread going and discuss conditions and forecasts on a daily basis, and hence continue to forecast how conditions will be and change for the next few days, for the next few weeks. Sorry if I didn't make myself to clear on that one.
Denis
Thanks for the reply! Of course under serious thawing conditions fingers ridge or the steeper technical lines like hoarmaster or the message are out of the question (I just named a few I wanted to do, I didn't specifically wanted to do those, I have a list of about 20 and will see in Scotland pending conditions). And even though I do expect conditions to worsen over the next week as I wrote in my post I don't expect them (maybe wrongly so) to be thawing so much that these things will become very dangerous immediately and I should write them off already (key words here being 'immediately' and 'already'). So thanks for your post, I might have been overly optimistic about conditions, in which case starting this thread wasn't such a bad idea!
And I know conditions are hard to predict and based on ever-changing forecasts, so yes, of course ideas about how the conditions will evolve are only sensible for the next few days (not the next few weeks). But I meant the thread title as in that we could get this thread going and discuss conditions and forecasts on a daily basis, and hence continue to forecast how conditions will be and change for the next few days, for the next few weeks. Sorry if I didn't make myself to clear on that one.
Denis
Post edited at 20:03
1
In reply to HosteDenis:
In the UK a lot of the mixed routes rely on frozen turf, during heavy thaws this isn't frozen and it is easily destroyed. Its not acceptable to climbing these routes in this condition.
Generally also we consider winter climbing on rock not in winter condition (ie no snow / frost etc) bad form, although this is a lesser crime if you are not damaging turf (and as long as the route is a winter route not just a summer line on a lower crag)
Regarding thaws they can very quickly make most routes unpleasant and not in acceptable condition, however at this time of year the good news is some routes normally come back in to condition very quickly as soon as it turns cold again.
I certainly would not write your trip off at this stage, who knows what the weather will do between now and February the 3rd. As ever winter climbing in Scotland is quite a gamble, the most reliable time is probably mid to end of February but this time of year isn't a bad bet either.
I would imagine the gullies are all quite full now so will be quite resistant to thawing, given a refreeze after a thaw they could be in good condition, although as ever you need to watch for avalanche danger and cornices here.
In the UK a lot of the mixed routes rely on frozen turf, during heavy thaws this isn't frozen and it is easily destroyed. Its not acceptable to climbing these routes in this condition.
Generally also we consider winter climbing on rock not in winter condition (ie no snow / frost etc) bad form, although this is a lesser crime if you are not damaging turf (and as long as the route is a winter route not just a summer line on a lower crag)
Regarding thaws they can very quickly make most routes unpleasant and not in acceptable condition, however at this time of year the good news is some routes normally come back in to condition very quickly as soon as it turns cold again.
I certainly would not write your trip off at this stage, who knows what the weather will do between now and February the 3rd. As ever winter climbing in Scotland is quite a gamble, the most reliable time is probably mid to end of February but this time of year isn't a bad bet either.
I would imagine the gullies are all quite full now so will be quite resistant to thawing, given a refreeze after a thaw they could be in good condition, although as ever you need to watch for avalanche danger and cornices here.
Post edited at 20:53
2
In reply to HosteDenis:
Hello Denis,
It's very difficult to predict what the weather does even next day Went out today hoping for frozen stuff, but it was at least 1 to 2 degrees warmer than forecast! Grrr.
There is tons of snow right now and then from late tomorrow on into the weekend and til Tuesday even there is going to be a bit of a meltdown. Hoping it's not all melting away conditions are maybe going to improve thereafter for icy stuff. You'll just have to suck it and see (as they say here )
I am sure there will be good stuff to do, but you need to continously check the conditions. Try the avalanche forecast and blogs (sais.gov.uk and mwis, the mountain weather forecast) for starters. Have fun
Hello Denis,
It's very difficult to predict what the weather does even next day Went out today hoping for frozen stuff, but it was at least 1 to 2 degrees warmer than forecast! Grrr.
There is tons of snow right now and then from late tomorrow on into the weekend and til Tuesday even there is going to be a bit of a meltdown. Hoping it's not all melting away conditions are maybe going to improve thereafter for icy stuff. You'll just have to suck it and see (as they say here )
I am sure there will be good stuff to do, but you need to continously check the conditions. Try the avalanche forecast and blogs (sais.gov.uk and mwis, the mountain weather forecast) for starters. Have fun
Post edited at 22:35
In reply to HosteDenis: Not sure about your assessment of recent conditions.
I'd have said that the conditions for the last 10days have been brilliant. There have been grade IX first ascents, some brilliant hard mixed conditions on the Ben and Beinn Eighe, good conditions around Glencoe and even grade V water ice climbable.
Anyway, it just shows there are two types of climbers. Those out getting stuff done and the rest who are bemoaning that the Northern Corries and Beinn Udlaidh aren't in condition.
As to future conditions, they will be good - if you are flexible and imaginative enough.
I'd have said that the conditions for the last 10days have been brilliant. There have been grade IX first ascents, some brilliant hard mixed conditions on the Ben and Beinn Eighe, good conditions around Glencoe and even grade V water ice climbable.
Anyway, it just shows there are two types of climbers. Those out getting stuff done and the rest who are bemoaning that the Northern Corries and Beinn Udlaidh aren't in condition.
As to future conditions, they will be good - if you are flexible and imaginative enough.
1
9
In reply to Heike:
Hi Heike! Your assessment seems to be very similar to mine, with their being lots of snow at the moment and from tomorrow/Friday onwards there being a (bit of a) meltdown. I'm hoping the same as you!
I'm also positive there will be good stuff to do, and I will continuously check conditions. I had SAIS and MWIS bookmarked already (along with cairngormweather), but thanks for the heads up anyway!
> There is tons of snow right now and then from late tomorrow on into the weekend and til Tuesday even there is going to be a bit of a meltdown. Hoping it's not all melting away conditions are maybe going to improve thereafter for icy stuff. You'll just have to suck it and see (as they say here )
> I am sure there will be good stuff to do, but you need to continously check the conditions. Try the avalanche forecast and blogs (sais.gov.uk and mwis, the mountain weather forecast) for starters. Have fun
Hi Heike! Your assessment seems to be very similar to mine, with their being lots of snow at the moment and from tomorrow/Friday onwards there being a (bit of a) meltdown. I'm hoping the same as you!
I'm also positive there will be good stuff to do, and I will continuously check conditions. I had SAIS and MWIS bookmarked already (along with cairngormweather), but thanks for the heads up anyway!
1
In reply to The Ex-Engineer:
Hi Ex-Engineer,
Well, as I said, it's hard to get a good view on current conditions all the way from Belgium behind my laptop, which is why I started this thread. I have no shame in getting some of it wrong, and getting it right is why I asked in the first place. You say there are two types of climbers, those who get stuff done and those who are moaning about conditions and don't. Either I misunderstood, in which case you can ignore the following, or you seem to imply I belong to the second group. I do get out and climb enough I'd say (just ask my girlfriend!), I'm a fairly regular/busy climber. Not at the moment though, right now I have different priorities and I'm studying (I'm a university student) and in between studying breaks I need to do something to take my mind off of it. Not having the time to winter climb right now, I spend my breaks looking up conditions of climbs I hope to be doing next week. Psych is high!
What part of my assessment would you call wrong, other than the fact that I said conditions have been great since last weekend (16&17) so for the last five days and you claim these great conditions have been lasting for a longer period (10 days). I'd say, apart from when the conditions improved and the amount of days winter climbing has been a blast, we're again sort of saying the same thing? Or am I missing something? I'm not saying this to confront you or to try and prove something here, not at all. I'm here to learn. I'm saying this because (all of) you actually live and climb in Scotland and are in a lot better positions to judge current conditions than I am.
About future conditions, I'm hoping the same as you, that they'll be good! I can be very imaginative about what climb to do next and I am flexible, I'll be in Schotland with the van so we can switch places and chase the climbs that are in good nick!
EDIT: I noticed you have a dislike - I didn't give you it. Wanted to clear that up; I read a thread the other day, some people might get offended by a dislike!
> Not sure about your assessment of recent conditions.
> I'd have said that the conditions for the last 10days have been brilliant. There have been grade IX first ascents, some brilliant hard mixed conditions on the Ben and Beinn Eighe, good conditions around Glencoe and even grade V water ice climbable.
> Anyway, it just shows there are two types of climbers. Those out getting stuff done and the rest who are bemoaning that the Northern Corries and Beinn Udlaidh aren't in condition.
> As to future conditions, they will be good - if you are flexible and imaginative enough.
Hi Ex-Engineer,
Well, as I said, it's hard to get a good view on current conditions all the way from Belgium behind my laptop, which is why I started this thread. I have no shame in getting some of it wrong, and getting it right is why I asked in the first place. You say there are two types of climbers, those who get stuff done and those who are moaning about conditions and don't. Either I misunderstood, in which case you can ignore the following, or you seem to imply I belong to the second group. I do get out and climb enough I'd say (just ask my girlfriend!), I'm a fairly regular/busy climber. Not at the moment though, right now I have different priorities and I'm studying (I'm a university student) and in between studying breaks I need to do something to take my mind off of it. Not having the time to winter climb right now, I spend my breaks looking up conditions of climbs I hope to be doing next week. Psych is high!
What part of my assessment would you call wrong, other than the fact that I said conditions have been great since last weekend (16&17) so for the last five days and you claim these great conditions have been lasting for a longer period (10 days). I'd say, apart from when the conditions improved and the amount of days winter climbing has been a blast, we're again sort of saying the same thing? Or am I missing something? I'm not saying this to confront you or to try and prove something here, not at all. I'm here to learn. I'm saying this because (all of) you actually live and climb in Scotland and are in a lot better positions to judge current conditions than I am.
About future conditions, I'm hoping the same as you, that they'll be good! I can be very imaginative about what climb to do next and I am flexible, I'll be in Schotland with the van so we can switch places and chase the climbs that are in good nick!
EDIT: I noticed you have a dislike - I didn't give you it. Wanted to clear that up; I read a thread the other day, some people might get offended by a dislike!
Post edited at 23:17
6
Apart from MWIS and Met Office, what other forecasting websites do people use for mountain conditions?
In reply to HosteDenis:
I'd just take things as they come. As others have said, it's difficult to predict conditions more than a day or two in advance. Local weather factors can have enormous influence too. I've seen conditions on routes change dramatically in less than an hour before. Hoar frost and rime ice can be stripped in front of your eyes, and climbing on unfrozen turf is a big no-no.
I'd just take things as they come. As others have said, it's difficult to predict conditions more than a day or two in advance. Local weather factors can have enormous influence too. I've seen conditions on routes change dramatically in less than an hour before. Hoar frost and rime ice can be stripped in front of your eyes, and climbing on unfrozen turf is a big no-no.
Post edited at 14:14
1
In reply to DundeeDave:
seconded. don't take the numbers too literally, it is a computer generated forecast with no human input so can lack a bit of common sense, but it is a brilliant visual tool to get an idea of what the freezing level is doing and the overall weather pattern.
> I also consult http://www.snow-forecast.com/
seconded. don't take the numbers too literally, it is a computer generated forecast with no human input so can lack a bit of common sense, but it is a brilliant visual tool to get an idea of what the freezing level is doing and the overall weather pattern.
In reply to Only a hill:
Ok, thanks. I will. I'll keep an eye on conditions, I've got most of the forecast, avalanche and condition sites bookmarked and I'll especially keep an eye on the ukc winter condition tab to see what has been done recently and try to chase climbs in good nick. And I'll stay off of the unfrozen turf
> I'd just take things as they come. As others have said, it's difficult to predict conditions more than a day or two in advance. Local weather factors can have enormous influence too. I've seen conditions on routes change dramatically in less than an hour before. Hoar frost and rime ice can be stripped in front of your eyes, and climbing on unfrozen turf is a big no-no.
Ok, thanks. I will. I'll keep an eye on conditions, I've got most of the forecast, avalanche and condition sites bookmarked and I'll especially keep an eye on the ukc winter condition tab to see what has been done recently and try to chase climbs in good nick. And I'll stay off of the unfrozen turf
Post edited at 18:42
1
In reply to HosteDenis:
Hi, It sounds like your decision making and route choice are on the right track.
There have been a lot of hard/good ascents done recently, most of them on hoared up rock. There is little ice or neve build up and a lot of fresh unconsolidated snow about. A short thaw and re freeze could bring lots of classic routes into excellent condition. So if it turns cold (which it will as the weather comes in cycles at this time of year) you should be in for a very good week!
Regardless of any geological reasons, climbing unfrozen turf is unsafe and scary to climb so best avoided at all times!
Hope that helps. Stay safe-stay psyched-have fun!
Paul
Hi, It sounds like your decision making and route choice are on the right track.
There have been a lot of hard/good ascents done recently, most of them on hoared up rock. There is little ice or neve build up and a lot of fresh unconsolidated snow about. A short thaw and re freeze could bring lots of classic routes into excellent condition. So if it turns cold (which it will as the weather comes in cycles at this time of year) you should be in for a very good week!
Regardless of any geological reasons, climbing unfrozen turf is unsafe and scary to climb so best avoided at all times!
Hope that helps. Stay safe-stay psyched-have fun!
Paul
In reply to HosteDenis:
I would also say do not be disheartened until all of your plans have been shown to be in ruins.
This, http://www.ukclimbing.com/images/dbpage.php?id=194430 started out as a mild, damp, wretched day. We nearly went mountain-biking instead. It turned into a perfect day, soggy below the cloud and immaculate above. Shame we had only three ice screws with us - it make for an exciting ascent of a route in perfect condition,
I would also say do not be disheartened until all of your plans have been shown to be in ruins.
This, http://www.ukclimbing.com/images/dbpage.php?id=194430 started out as a mild, damp, wretched day. We nearly went mountain-biking instead. It turned into a perfect day, soggy below the cloud and immaculate above. Shame we had only three ice screws with us - it make for an exciting ascent of a route in perfect condition,
In reply to HosteDenis:
It's January. There is plenty snowfall and it's cold and it's windy. Similar but not as much last month. Soon it will be February and the temperatures will stay low, there will be less snowfall and less wind. February is special. February's secret however is that it is preceded by December and January. The ground on northern aspects may not have seen sun since November or earlier and it is cold and the gullies are at least partially filled with ice and snow. The temperatures will not rise until March in spite of more daylight. It can go wrong but generally IT'S PLAYTIME!
It's January. There is plenty snowfall and it's cold and it's windy. Similar but not as much last month. Soon it will be February and the temperatures will stay low, there will be less snowfall and less wind. February is special. February's secret however is that it is preceded by December and January. The ground on northern aspects may not have seen sun since November or earlier and it is cold and the gullies are at least partially filled with ice and snow. The temperatures will not rise until March in spite of more daylight. It can go wrong but generally IT'S PLAYTIME!
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