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While news on the Greek tragedy is not currently in the news, it may soon reemerge...
http://www.politico.eu/article/why-were-not-safe-from-grexit-yet-syriza-gre...
> As Greece faces a financing crunch in July, it will also likely see the influx of refugees hit fever pitch. In the absence of a coherent and effective European migration policy before July, it’s hard to imagine Greece avoiding expulsion from Schengen — and with the new line for Europe drawn at Greece’s northern borders, Greece will be one step closer to being out of the European project.
> Last summer, Schäuble suggested Greece take a temporary break from the eurozone, and relations between Germany and Greece have only deteriorated since. It is likely Schäuble will put his proposal back on the table this summer. Greece’s fate may ultimately be determined by how much solidarity there really is in Europe — in which case, the future looks grim.
http://www.politico.eu/article/why-were-not-safe-from-grexit-yet-syriza-gre...
In reply to Big Ger:
Yes I think if Greece goes or looks like it's about to go it'll boost the likelihood of Britain exiting, the less confidence we have in the EU's future the less we'll want to stick within it. If we go too I think it could be the final straw which leads to its eventual breakup.
Yes I think if Greece goes or looks like it's about to go it'll boost the likelihood of Britain exiting, the less confidence we have in the EU's future the less we'll want to stick within it. If we go too I think it could be the final straw which leads to its eventual breakup.
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In reply to Big Ger:
I can understand the desire some hold for the UK to leave the EU, but I don't really understand the joy some seem to be taking from the EU's troubles, or the thought of it collapsing.
Even if you don't want the UK to be in the EU, why would it be a good thing for it to fail entirely? I can't see how that would help the UK, but I can see plenty of ways it would make things worse.
I'd much prefer the UK tried to help solve these problems than ditch and run, and to hell with the complications. The refugee crisis isn't going to just disappear on the basis of how Europe is organised!
Remind me, aren't you an ex-pat, living in Australia? Maybe it's easy to sit back and enjoy the show from that distance!
I can understand the desire some hold for the UK to leave the EU, but I don't really understand the joy some seem to be taking from the EU's troubles, or the thought of it collapsing.
Even if you don't want the UK to be in the EU, why would it be a good thing for it to fail entirely? I can't see how that would help the UK, but I can see plenty of ways it would make things worse.
I'd much prefer the UK tried to help solve these problems than ditch and run, and to hell with the complications. The refugee crisis isn't going to just disappear on the basis of how Europe is organised!
Remind me, aren't you an ex-pat, living in Australia? Maybe it's easy to sit back and enjoy the show from that distance!
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In reply to Mike Stretford:
Just to be clear, I'm still in two minds about which way to vote. I was simply agreeing that a Greek exit would probably make a British exit more likely. So I'm not a die hard anti EU campaigner or anything like that.
But saying that, the ending of the EU as we know it may well be a good solution long term. Rather than trying endlessly to make something work which just won't, we could start again from a blank slate and build from the ground up something much easier and more simple with just the main European power involved.
I think the big problem with the EU is when they started expanding, taking in nations which were miles behind the leaders in terms of economic or social development. This gulf instantly creates huge inequalities within Europe which brings with it a whole host of problems, from dodgy finances to mass migration to social unrest, causing problems for all the countries involved. If we could start afresh with just say Britain, France, Germany, Scandinavia and maybe a few others it would be much easier to achieve harmony because we're all on more or less the same level. We wouldn't find ourselves bailing out an irresponsible Germany or battling mass immigration from the French. We could have that nice peaceful European model we want, with free movement and trade, without all the downsides.
Just to be clear, I'm still in two minds about which way to vote. I was simply agreeing that a Greek exit would probably make a British exit more likely. So I'm not a die hard anti EU campaigner or anything like that.
But saying that, the ending of the EU as we know it may well be a good solution long term. Rather than trying endlessly to make something work which just won't, we could start again from a blank slate and build from the ground up something much easier and more simple with just the main European power involved.
I think the big problem with the EU is when they started expanding, taking in nations which were miles behind the leaders in terms of economic or social development. This gulf instantly creates huge inequalities within Europe which brings with it a whole host of problems, from dodgy finances to mass migration to social unrest, causing problems for all the countries involved. If we could start afresh with just say Britain, France, Germany, Scandinavia and maybe a few others it would be much easier to achieve harmony because we're all on more or less the same level. We wouldn't find ourselves bailing out an irresponsible Germany or battling mass immigration from the French. We could have that nice peaceful European model we want, with free movement and trade, without all the downsides.
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In reply to Big Ger:
So basically you want a rich persons European union. If other countries become rich do we let them in? Or if a part of it becomes poor do we boot them out?
If you're going into partnership with Scandinavia would you accept their levels of taxation and social provision? How do you plan to get round that and create an equal trading block - they are out of sync with the UK
So basically you want a rich persons European union. If other countries become rich do we let them in? Or if a part of it becomes poor do we boot them out?
If you're going into partnership with Scandinavia would you accept their levels of taxation and social provision? How do you plan to get round that and create an equal trading block - they are out of sync with the UK
1
In reply to Lord_ash2000:
I'd go for evolution rather than revolution. I think it's inevitable that we go for a two tier EU, Eurozone and the rest. Greece was a mistake for the Eurozone, but given their critical position in the refugee crisis it is better to keep them in now, as part of a solution.
We cannot isolate ourselves from these problems, if Europe goes tits up we go with it. Much better to be part of the solution.
> But saying that, the ending of the EU as we know it may well be a good solution long term. Rather than trying endlessly to make something work which just won't, we could start again from a blank slate and build from the ground up something much easier and more simple with just the main European power involved.
I'd go for evolution rather than revolution. I think it's inevitable that we go for a two tier EU, Eurozone and the rest. Greece was a mistake for the Eurozone, but given their critical position in the refugee crisis it is better to keep them in now, as part of a solution.
We cannot isolate ourselves from these problems, if Europe goes tits up we go with it. Much better to be part of the solution.
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In reply to Big Ger:
The first thing that springs to mind is i REALLY hate the terms "Brexit" and "Grexit".
The first thing that springs to mind is i REALLY hate the terms "Brexit" and "Grexit".
5
In reply to Big Ger:
We may also see the prospect of an Italexit as well
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/why-italy-may-need-to-leave-the-...
The whole project is going tits up.
We may also see the prospect of an Italexit as well
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/why-italy-may-need-to-leave-the-...
The whole project is going tits up.
In reply to skog:
You've read a lot into a an article which isn't there. One in which no one expressed any "joy", nor did the OP indicate any "joy".
> I can understand the desire some hold for the UK to leave the EU, but I don't really understand the joy some seem to be taking from the EU's troubles, or the thought of it collapsing.
> Even if you don't want the UK to be in the EU, why would it be a good thing for it to fail entirely? I can't see how that would help the UK, but I can see plenty of ways it would make things worse.
You've read a lot into a an article which isn't there. One in which no one expressed any "joy", nor did the OP indicate any "joy".
Post edited at 20:13
In reply to wbo:
Sorry? Where did I say that?
I'm not going into partnership with Scandinavia?
> So basically you want a rich persons European union. If other countries become rich do we let them in? Or if a part of it becomes poor do we boot them out?
Sorry? Where did I say that?
> If you're going into partnership with Scandinavia would you accept their levels of taxation and social provision? How do you plan to get round that and create an equal trading block - they are out of sync with the UK
I'm not going into partnership with Scandinavia?
In reply to Big Ger:
Meanwhile, back on topic;
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/25/europe-braces-major-humanitari...
Meanwhile, back on topic;
> EU interior ministers met in Brussels on Thursday in their latest attempt to forge a common response, but the meeting was clouded by a ferocious row between Greece and Austria, which is spearheading a campaign to quarantine Greece and throttle the flow of migrants up the Balkans by partially sealing the Greek border with Macedonia.
> If Greece is cut off from the rest of Europe’s free-travel Schengen area, Berlin predicts a humanitarian and security emergency within days.
> Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU commissioner in charge of migration, said contingency planning for a major aid operation was highly advanced and would be finalised within days. “The possibility of a humanitarian crisis of a large scale is there and very real,” he said.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/25/europe-braces-major-humanitari...
In reply to Mike Stretford: " I think it's inevitable that we go for a two tier EU, Eurozone and the rest. "
There are two tiers in the eurozone alone (arguably three). We can't isolate ourselves from these problems, but we could step aside and make sovereign decisions to best protect ourselves from the growing disintegration of the project. I'm interested how we influence from within? Not saying we couldn't, just not seen much reasoned evidence of what we could a) achieve and b) how it would be done (or even what this solution is that would be palatable to the electorate?)...especially as the current EU/eurozone is a fluid problem that is currently struggling to keep a lid on various crises that appear to be terrifyingly only in their fledgling phase. I wonder if Cameron might soon wish he called the referendum sooner.
I understand that that is a glass half empty view and others (probably including yourself) are inclined to half full, devils advocate and all that..
There are two tiers in the eurozone alone (arguably three). We can't isolate ourselves from these problems, but we could step aside and make sovereign decisions to best protect ourselves from the growing disintegration of the project. I'm interested how we influence from within? Not saying we couldn't, just not seen much reasoned evidence of what we could a) achieve and b) how it would be done (or even what this solution is that would be palatable to the electorate?)...especially as the current EU/eurozone is a fluid problem that is currently struggling to keep a lid on various crises that appear to be terrifyingly only in their fledgling phase. I wonder if Cameron might soon wish he called the referendum sooner.
I understand that that is a glass half empty view and others (probably including yourself) are inclined to half full, devils advocate and all that..
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In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:
To be honest I think we've already started. IMO the formal acceptance that the UK is not part of 'ever closer union' is more significant than people think. Eurosceptics have been right for years, the guiding principle for EU politicians has been 'ever closer union', economically and politically, and British politicians have been coy about it. Now that one country is exempt, others will follow. The EU elite will have to accept this.
The Eurozone needs to integrate further to succeed, it is in our interests that it does that. It cannot do that while trying to drag reluctant countries like the UK, Sweden, Denmark, Poland ect with it. Some seem to look forward to the carnage of EU/Eurozone breakup..... I think that's crazy, there's a real risk it would lead to a major economic depression we would be part of.
Yeah, but then you're probably glass half full about leaving!
On the refugee crisis, I think Germany did the least worst thing. Refugees were landing in Greece, that cannot realistically deal with the situation, so the country with the most robust economy took them in (Germany). They won't be able to do it again, and winter gives a chance to come up with an alternative, but at the time I don't think there were any alternatives.
> " I think it's inevitable that we go for a two tier EU, Eurozone and the rest. "
> There are two tiers in the eurozone alone (arguably three). We can't isolate ourselves from these problems, but we could step aside and make sovereign decisions to best protect ourselves from the growing disintegration of the project. I'm interested how we influence from within? Not saying we couldn't, just not seen much reasoned evidence of what we could a) achieve and b) how it would be done (or even what this solution is that would be palatable to the electorate?)
To be honest I think we've already started. IMO the formal acceptance that the UK is not part of 'ever closer union' is more significant than people think. Eurosceptics have been right for years, the guiding principle for EU politicians has been 'ever closer union', economically and politically, and British politicians have been coy about it. Now that one country is exempt, others will follow. The EU elite will have to accept this.
The Eurozone needs to integrate further to succeed, it is in our interests that it does that. It cannot do that while trying to drag reluctant countries like the UK, Sweden, Denmark, Poland ect with it. Some seem to look forward to the carnage of EU/Eurozone breakup..... I think that's crazy, there's a real risk it would lead to a major economic depression we would be part of.
> I understand that that is a glass half empty view and others (probably including yourself) are inclined to half full, devils advocate and all that..
Yeah, but then you're probably glass half full about leaving!
On the refugee crisis, I think Germany did the least worst thing. Refugees were landing in Greece, that cannot realistically deal with the situation, so the country with the most robust economy took them in (Germany). They won't be able to do it again, and winter gives a chance to come up with an alternative, but at the time I don't think there were any alternatives.
In reply to Mike Stretford:
It is not necessarily in our interests, nor even those of other countries.
You list a number of countries that are unhappy, but even that list is incomplete.
I disagree.
Germany did not quietly offer to take these refugees off Greece's hands, Angela Merkel loudly announced - without getting agreement from even her own government - pretty well an open "come on in" policy.
This led directly to even more coming, (and risking sea crossings), as they were led to believe that they were going to be welcomed with open arms.
At the same time, ISIS appears to have taken advantage of the chaos to infiltrate a number (unknown) of terrorists into the EU.
The end result (for Merkel) is that she no longer has the same power/influence/trust that she did have in either Germany or the EU.
> The Eurozone needs to integrate further to succeed, it is in our interests that it does that. It cannot do that while trying to drag reluctant countries like the UK, Sweden, Denmark, Poland ect with it. Some seem to look forward to the carnage of EU/Eurozone breakup
It is not necessarily in our interests, nor even those of other countries.
You list a number of countries that are unhappy, but even that list is incomplete.
> On the refugee crisis, I think Germany did the least worst thing.
I disagree.
Germany did not quietly offer to take these refugees off Greece's hands, Angela Merkel loudly announced - without getting agreement from even her own government - pretty well an open "come on in" policy.
This led directly to even more coming, (and risking sea crossings), as they were led to believe that they were going to be welcomed with open arms.
At the same time, ISIS appears to have taken advantage of the chaos to infiltrate a number (unknown) of terrorists into the EU.
The end result (for Merkel) is that she no longer has the same power/influence/trust that she did have in either Germany or the EU.
1
In reply to fred99:
I see I mistyped 'etc', but I'm surprised you couldn't work it out.
Then we'll have to agree to disagree, I think they would have come anyway.
> It is not necessarily in our interests, nor even those of other countries.
> You list a number of countries that are unhappy, but even that list is incomplete.
I see I mistyped 'etc', but I'm surprised you couldn't work it out.
> I disagree.
Then we'll have to agree to disagree, I think they would have come anyway.
In reply to Mike Stretford:
"but at the time I don't think there were any alternatives."
Except did she have any democratic legitimacy to do it when taken in conjunction with the European superstate she operates in? (and only 5 years earlier she publicly stated that multiculturalism had "utterly failed" in Germany saying "it is an illusion that Germans and Foreign workers could live happily side by side"...mixed signals! ) Maverick behaviour with consequences highlighting more weaknesses in the EU infrastructure or strong leadership grasping the nettle?
"there's a real risk it would lead to a major economic depression we would be part of."
There is a risk of economic depression globally regardless, central banks have managed to delay judgement day for the time being but a fast running out of bullets. Also, lets not forget millions of Southern European youths have been living in a major economic depression for the last 7 years. A break of the shackles whilst in the short term would likely be painful for all, medium term a revaluation of their currencies should quickly make them competitive again. Hypothetical, I know...but more compelling to me as a positive currently than the status quo.
Re some looking forward to an EU break up...I suspect that they are waiting for the biggest "I told you so" they can imagine, and will use the following economic problems (should they happen) as more opportunity to say "if you had listened in the first place we wouldn't be in this mess"
BTW, I have argued your points but I think you make good ones and you give food for thought.
"but at the time I don't think there were any alternatives."
Except did she have any democratic legitimacy to do it when taken in conjunction with the European superstate she operates in? (and only 5 years earlier she publicly stated that multiculturalism had "utterly failed" in Germany saying "it is an illusion that Germans and Foreign workers could live happily side by side"...mixed signals! ) Maverick behaviour with consequences highlighting more weaknesses in the EU infrastructure or strong leadership grasping the nettle?
"there's a real risk it would lead to a major economic depression we would be part of."
There is a risk of economic depression globally regardless, central banks have managed to delay judgement day for the time being but a fast running out of bullets. Also, lets not forget millions of Southern European youths have been living in a major economic depression for the last 7 years. A break of the shackles whilst in the short term would likely be painful for all, medium term a revaluation of their currencies should quickly make them competitive again. Hypothetical, I know...but more compelling to me as a positive currently than the status quo.
Re some looking forward to an EU break up...I suspect that they are waiting for the biggest "I told you so" they can imagine, and will use the following economic problems (should they happen) as more opportunity to say "if you had listened in the first place we wouldn't be in this mess"
BTW, I have argued your points but I think you make good ones and you give food for thought.
In reply to Big Ger:
I once had a horrible GREXIT the morning after a visit to a local Greek restaurant.
I once had a horrible GREXIT the morning after a visit to a local Greek restaurant.
2
In reply to Big Ger:
More trouble on the horizon;
More trouble on the horizon;
> A recession in Europe could lead to the collapse of the eurozone, as the single currency would buckle under the political turmoil unleashed by a fresh downturn, a leading investment bank has warned. In a research note titled "Close to the edge", economists at Swiss bank Credit Suisse warned the fate of monetary union hangs in the balance if Europe's policymakers are unable to ward off another global slump and quell anti-euro populism.
> "The viability of the euro is contingent on the current recovery," said Peter Foley at Credit Suisse. "If the euro area were to relapse back into recession, it is not clear it would endure."
> Unlike the US and UK, the eurozone's GDP still lags below its pre-financial crisis peak.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/02/recession-will-lead-to-euroz...Post edited at 00:20
In reply to Big Ger:
the world is changing, 12months from now you could have 2 or more less countries in the EU, as Austria isn't exactly loving it either just now, Greece will exit by fair means or foul. The USA could have Trump, Cameron could have resigned and been replaced by Boris... Putin will think the instability is perfect for extending his reach a little and Corbyn will be still be reading doris from dorkings questions every week.
the world is changing, 12months from now you could have 2 or more less countries in the EU, as Austria isn't exactly loving it either just now, Greece will exit by fair means or foul. The USA could have Trump, Cameron could have resigned and been replaced by Boris... Putin will think the instability is perfect for extending his reach a little and Corbyn will be still be reading doris from dorkings questions every week.
In reply to Big Ger:
I'd probably worry about the middle east, their little cease fire will give them time to regroup their forces, probably carnage afterwards. It's not like any side is rushing towards some kind of peace talks.
> Dear god mate, should I be watching out for the fourth horseman?
I'd probably worry about the middle east, their little cease fire will give them time to regroup their forces, probably carnage afterwards. It's not like any side is rushing towards some kind of peace talks.
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