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Bad time to buy euros

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Donald82 08 Jul 2016
Apparently Deutchebank is in a bit of a pickle.
Clauso 08 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

Buy Argentinian pesos... They're performing better than sterling.

Failing that, invest in salt.
1
interdit 08 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

> Bad time to buy euros

Depends when you need to spend them.*
If you need to spend some Euros NOW, and you have none, then the only time better than today to have bought some is a couple of months ago. Thankfully as a business we covered our exposure by doing that. Of course things could have turned out differently and we would have been kicking ourselves for buying at a low rate, but we made the safest move to limit our exposure.

* if you are talking about buying Euro as an investment as opposed to buying to buying to cover payments then I shall leave you to your madness

> Apparently Deutchebank is in a bit of a pickle.

Yes. Yes, they are. There are various financial problems ready to break in the eurozone at the moment. Not making the bloody pound any stronger though! Which just shows how the UK, its currency and its economy is currently valued post brexit.
3
interdit 08 Jul 2016
In reply to Clauso:

> Buy Argentinian pesos... They're performing better than sterling.

That's a kind of hat?
Sorry. Confusing pesos with sombreros. Not sure which is worth more.

> Failing that, invest in salt.

Rock or sea? Always with the tricky choices!
 veteye 08 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

This is one area that I have obviously not kept up to, so I don't know to what you are alluding.So enlighten me/us please..
 Big Ger 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

Over the past 3 weeks the value of the $Au has gone up from 50p to 58p.

Like an idiot, I sent over several thousand $Au to pay off my UK mortgage when it was 54p.

I should have held my nerve and waited.
 AndyC 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Big Ger:

> Over the past 3 weeks the value of the $Au has gone up from 50p to 58p.

Actually, I think you'll find the value of the pound has dropped. Interesting to see you're not averse to making a profit out of the chaos unleashed by the referendum.
 Philip 09 Jul 2016
In reply to AndyC:

> Actually, I think you'll find the value of the pound has dropped. Interesting to see you're not averse to making a profit out of the chaos unleashed by the referendum.

How do you make a profit paying off a debt? Unless he now sells the house, waits for the crash and buys it back cheaper leaving him with the difference in cash.
Donald82 09 Jul 2016
In reply to veteye:

Deuthe bank is rumoured to be close to collapse.
Donald82 09 Jul 2016
In reply to interdit:

Not sure I follow. Surely, unless you can't wait a short while to buy euros, it would be sensible not to buy now as if Deutsche bank collapses the euro will devalue quite a lot?
Donald82 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Clauso:

Agreed, so long as you hedge by shortin' pepper.
 Postmanpat 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

> Deuthe bank is rumoured to be close to collapse.
What ru hearing? Rumours have come and gone intermittently on DB. They recently failed the fed's dodd franks test (so did MS) but the fed confirmed their basic capital ratios were ok. Something else?
interdit 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

> Not sure I follow. Surely, unless you can't wait a short while to buy euros, it would be sensible not to buy now as if Deutsche bank collapses the euro will devalue quite a lot?

That is why I said 'If you need to spend some Euros NOW, and you have none,'

 spotter1 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

buy kindness and patience, a rare commodity i hear these days.
 timjones 09 Jul 2016
In reply to AndyC:

> Actually, I think you'll find the value of the pound has dropped. Interesting to see you're not averse to making a profit out of the chaos unleashed by the referendum.

That's the point! It would have been cheaper ti have waited a little given the decline in the value of the pound.

How often do you rejoice when you find out that you have just paid more than you needed too for something?
 Al Evans 09 Jul 2016
In reply to timjones:

My pension is paid in [pounds, consequently it has fallen by about 200€ this month.
 AndyC 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Philip:

You know nothing Philip Snow!

It's a Brexit thing.
 AndyC 09 Jul 2016
In reply to timjones:

> That's the point!

Actually I think you have missed my point.

 timjones 09 Jul 2016
In reply to AndyC:

Maybe you'd better explain.

Should we be averse to making a profit occasionally, we have to accept the loss when currencies move against us.
 timjones 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Al Evans:

> My pension is paid in [pounds, consequently it has fallen by about 200€ this month.

Ouch

Given that most of our output is destined for export markets we are likely to see some small gains in the short term but the long term outlook is worrying if we don't negotiate sensible trade agreements
 Jenny C 09 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

Shit exchange rate today compared with one month ago. Just bought holiday euros on assumption rate is only going to get worse between now and Christmas
 Big Ger 10 Jul 2016
In reply to AndyC:
> Actually, I think you'll find the value of the pound has dropped. Interesting to see you're not averse to making a profit out of the chaos unleashed by the referendum.

I'd be stupid not to maximise my chances to pay off my mortgage. Are you deliberately holding off paying yours in order to make the UK a better place?

Oh and the A$Au rose due to the election result here, the jobs news in the US, and China strengthening. Currency fluctuations do not happen in isolation.

The growth of the $Au against the quid is a year long one.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=GBP&view=1Y
Post edited at 00:01
 Big Ger 10 Jul 2016
In reply to timjones:
> Should we be averse to making a profit occasionally, we have to accept the loss when currencies move against us.

When I first moved out here I was sending back and paying £300 pcm for someone else to live in my house. In those days the $Au was worth 32p.
Post edited at 00:05
In reply to Donald82:

I wonder what happens to its 52 trillion euro derivative book if it goes under? DBs health is one of the biggest risks to the world economy and the EU right now. Will Merkel step in to protect us all?. Hope she has deep pockets. Those euros might be getting cheap again ....
 ian caton 10 Jul 2016
In reply to Donald82:

I say it's going to parity.
 RomTheBear 10 Jul 2016
In reply to Jenny C:
> Shit exchange rate today compared with one month ago. Just bought holiday euros on assumption rate is only going to get worse between now and Christmas

I'm losing around 30k on the exchange rate, as I brought much of my life saving from Euros to pounds last year to buy a house... Now of course after Brexit we are considering leaving the U.K. and buy somewhere else, so we need to convert back in euros... It hurts... It's like one year of hard work just erased in one week. Unfortunately it will get probably worse before it gets better from the look of it...
Post edited at 08:49
 Ridge 10 Jul 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

Ouch. Sorry to hear that.
 timjones 10 Jul 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

> I'm losing around 30k on the exchange rate, as I brought much of my life saving from Euros to pounds last year to buy a house... Now of course after Brexit we are considering leaving the U.K. and buy somewhere else, so we need to convert back in euros... It hurts... It's like one year of hard work just erased in one week. Unfortunately it will get probably worse before it gets better from the look of it...

Why fret about it now, it's far to early to be making such momentous decisions, we haven't got a clue what is going to happen yet.
2
 RomTheBear 10 Jul 2016
In reply to timjones:

> Why fret about it now, it's far to early to be making such momentous decisions, we haven't got a clue what is going to happen yet.

Not having a clue is the problem, I work as a contractor in the financial sector and things don't look so good at the moment
 timjones 10 Jul 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Not having a clue is the problem, I work as a contractor in the financial sector and things don't look so good at the moment

I'm not sure it looks good for anyone other than the legal types that are going to get paid to unravel it all so that we can start again.

As a sheep farmer whose entire crop is ultimately destined for export to France I haven't got a clue where my business will be in 3 years time
 Big Ger 10 Jul 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:
> Now of course after Brexit we are considering leaving the U.K. and buy somewhere else, so we need to convert back in euros...

There's me thinking you loved the place too...

Why do you intend to inflict such pain on yourself?
Post edited at 22:33
 RomTheBear 10 Jul 2016
In reply to Big Ger:

> There's me thinking you loved the place too...

> Why do you intend to inflict such pain on yourself?

I do love the place, and it will be heartbreaking, but TBH the whole atmosphere against foreigners has been quite depressing the past year, add to that the uncertainty in my sector... Maybe time to get a move on ! Never too good to stay in one place anyways.
1
 Big Ger 11 Jul 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

Fair comment Rom. I wish you all the best in your endeavours.

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