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God forbid, if Trump wins what do you think will happen over the next four years?
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I think one of the issues with the current election is the lack of nuance in its coverage.
Whoever wins, the sun will rise and set a lot of times. Some people will be better off, some people will be worse off. A minority will be much worse off. A lot of people will be angry. A lot of people will be pleased. Which of these groups you fit into depends who wins.
It isn't going to be the end of the world. It won't be black and white. It could be that your preferred candidate would oversee a disaster of biblical proportions and so your least preferred candidate winning is better overall. Since we cannot observe both realities of one candidate winning, we can't directly compare the two.
In addition, I think to dismiss Trump would also be to dismiss the sentiment of the many American voters who feel disenfranchised by the current system. America has different issues to us (and different people!) and it is them that will vote so our opinion is less important.
I think one of the issues with the current election is the lack of nuance in its coverage.
Whoever wins, the sun will rise and set a lot of times. Some people will be better off, some people will be worse off. A minority will be much worse off. A lot of people will be angry. A lot of people will be pleased. Which of these groups you fit into depends who wins.
It isn't going to be the end of the world. It won't be black and white. It could be that your preferred candidate would oversee a disaster of biblical proportions and so your least preferred candidate winning is better overall. Since we cannot observe both realities of one candidate winning, we can't directly compare the two.
In addition, I think to dismiss Trump would also be to dismiss the sentiment of the many American voters who feel disenfranchised by the current system. America has different issues to us (and different people!) and it is them that will vote so our opinion is less important.
Post edited at 18:06
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I'm beginning to think it wouldn't be at all bad for Britain to have the US distracting the world markets from the whole brexit thing - not to mention Donald has us first in the queue (apparently)
I'm beginning to think it wouldn't be at all bad for Britain to have the US distracting the world markets from the whole brexit thing - not to mention Donald has us first in the queue (apparently)
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In reply to FesteringSore: despite some of the scare mongering I agree generally with the above. Given his lack of experience, and lack I think of any conviction in anything bar his own greatness I think he'll make a huge list of pronouncements and not much will happen. He will make a lot of poor and middle class Americans and consequently the world, poorer tho'.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I'm starting to think the long term damage will be done to the party of which ever candidate *does* win.
I'm starting to think the long term damage will be done to the party of which ever candidate *does* win.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
a few assassination attempts, a few wars, more financial crisis, same old story, the world swimmin in a fish bowl..
a few assassination attempts, a few wars, more financial crisis, same old story, the world swimmin in a fish bowl..
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In reply to FesteringSore:
Deterioration of human rights and what passes for welfare in the US. Loads of bluster and bravado. No second term.
Deterioration of human rights and what passes for welfare in the US. Loads of bluster and bravado. No second term.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
Domestically he will struggle to get any of his headline policies implemented either with or without a Republican congress. The healthcare reforms would probably go, and he would get to nominate a supreme court justice.
In foreign policy he has a lot more leeway to act. The Syrian war would probably be settled on Iranian terms, and further territorial gains for Russia in eastern Ukraine perhaps. Probably the most dangerous thing he could do would be a weakening of NATO (either real or perceived) leading to a possibility of war in the Baltics. I think that this is probably what would worry me most about a Trump presidency as it opens a plausible route for catastrophic misjudgements.
> God forbid, if Trump wins what do you think will happen over the next four years?
Domestically he will struggle to get any of his headline policies implemented either with or without a Republican congress. The healthcare reforms would probably go, and he would get to nominate a supreme court justice.
In foreign policy he has a lot more leeway to act. The Syrian war would probably be settled on Iranian terms, and further territorial gains for Russia in eastern Ukraine perhaps. Probably the most dangerous thing he could do would be a weakening of NATO (either real or perceived) leading to a possibility of war in the Baltics. I think that this is probably what would worry me most about a Trump presidency as it opens a plausible route for catastrophic misjudgements.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
My worry is not so much what he will do - I think there are enough safety nets to stop him doing anything too dangerous. I worry more about the vile attitudes that become legitimised through his prejudiced statements. We know he can't get Mexico to pay for him to build a wall (for example) but speaking in these terms makes an anti Mexican attitude seem acceptable. Same goes for all his other remarks.
My worry is not so much what he will do - I think there are enough safety nets to stop him doing anything too dangerous. I worry more about the vile attitudes that become legitimised through his prejudiced statements. We know he can't get Mexico to pay for him to build a wall (for example) but speaking in these terms makes an anti Mexican attitude seem acceptable. Same goes for all his other remarks.
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In reply to Angrypenguin:
If you look to Trump for nuance to report on, I fear you will look in vain.
If Trump wins it could be none of us will be around to see the sun rise and set. And I am serious.
> I think one of the issues with the current election is the lack of nuance in its coverage.
If you look to Trump for nuance to report on, I fear you will look in vain.
> Whoever wins, the sun will rise and set a lot of times.
If Trump wins it could be none of us will be around to see the sun rise and set. And I am serious.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
If Trump wins, I'm stocking up on firewood, sacks of rice and wind up radios etc. Seriously.
If Trump wins, I'm stocking up on firewood, sacks of rice and wind up radios etc. Seriously.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I just don't get how anybody can bother to assess his "policies" in a serious tone. The man is an absolute imbecile. And what is worse is that it's as if Jimmy Saville had openly confessed to his crimes and predilections and we still went on to make him a Papal Knight , invite him to Chequers for Xmas dinner then make him leader of the House of Lords. It's not Hillary who's the criminal it's Trump. What he's boasted about with regard to his voyeurism and assaults on women is crime.
What kind of crazy nightmare are we living through? Are we going to live through it?
I just don't get how anybody can bother to assess his "policies" in a serious tone. The man is an absolute imbecile. And what is worse is that it's as if Jimmy Saville had openly confessed to his crimes and predilections and we still went on to make him a Papal Knight , invite him to Chequers for Xmas dinner then make him leader of the House of Lords. It's not Hillary who's the criminal it's Trump. What he's boasted about with regard to his voyeurism and assaults on women is crime.
What kind of crazy nightmare are we living through? Are we going to live through it?
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In reply to Pete Pozman:
The trouble is, he isn't an imbecile.
He's a very dangerous narcissist with an uncanny knack for manipulating others - he promises them the world and will deliver nothing, other than apparent validation of some of humanities more base instincts and prejudices.
He has no policies to speak of (or at least, he has a few ill-formed ideas with no plan of how to enact them) and doesn't really mind, because the coverage is mostly about him, so the lack of coherent plans is easily overlooked by many.
He's a deeply unpleasant, duplicitous, manipulative individual with the attitudes of an angry adolescent and less self-control. Which shouldn't matter if he wasn't in the running for the post of the most important person on the planet politically.
I think we should be very afraid, especially as his rise is at least partly a result of the alienation of a large swathe of society in the US, not dissimilar to that seen in the UK in June, and in France, Germany etc. It might be we are going to hell in a handcart, but for almost exactly the opposite reasons to those usually given by those who tell us we are all off to hell in a handcart....
If he wins, he thinks he will get to play with all the toys - although as mentioned above, thankfully he won't be permitted to get up to too much trouble without a huge and bullish Republican backing - which he currently doesn't have.
b
The trouble is, he isn't an imbecile.
He's a very dangerous narcissist with an uncanny knack for manipulating others - he promises them the world and will deliver nothing, other than apparent validation of some of humanities more base instincts and prejudices.
He has no policies to speak of (or at least, he has a few ill-formed ideas with no plan of how to enact them) and doesn't really mind, because the coverage is mostly about him, so the lack of coherent plans is easily overlooked by many.
He's a deeply unpleasant, duplicitous, manipulative individual with the attitudes of an angry adolescent and less self-control. Which shouldn't matter if he wasn't in the running for the post of the most important person on the planet politically.
I think we should be very afraid, especially as his rise is at least partly a result of the alienation of a large swathe of society in the US, not dissimilar to that seen in the UK in June, and in France, Germany etc. It might be we are going to hell in a handcart, but for almost exactly the opposite reasons to those usually given by those who tell us we are all off to hell in a handcart....
If he wins, he thinks he will get to play with all the toys - although as mentioned above, thankfully he won't be permitted to get up to too much trouble without a huge and bullish Republican backing - which he currently doesn't have.
b
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In reply to FesteringSore:
everyone will have to give up climbing and play golf
UKC will be rebranded UKG and we can all debate birdies, bunkers and what number iron to use
everyone will have to give up climbing and play golf
UKC will be rebranded UKG and we can all debate birdies, bunkers and what number iron to use
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In reply to doz:
> everyone will have to give up climbing and play golf
Will TPS be a par 3 or par 4?
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In reply to girlymonkey:
There aren't.
Stigmatising minorities is usually (though obviously not always) just a tactic to achieve power on the back of an angry electorate. The problem is we have no idea what if anything he'll do with that power, it certainly seems to be something he wants just for the sake of it but we don't really know.
My guess is there'll be a brief flurry of activity failing to implement some of his populist policies then he'll get stuck into settling scores with his critics.
jk
> My worry is not so much what he will do - I think there are enough safety nets to stop him doing anything too dangerous.
There aren't.
> I worry more about the vile attitudes that become legitimised through his prejudiced statements.
Stigmatising minorities is usually (though obviously not always) just a tactic to achieve power on the back of an angry electorate. The problem is we have no idea what if anything he'll do with that power, it certainly seems to be something he wants just for the sake of it but we don't really know.
My guess is there'll be a brief flurry of activity failing to implement some of his populist policies then he'll get stuck into settling scores with his critics.
jk
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In reply to ben b:
Your average politician then.
> ...He's a deeply unpleasant, duplicitous, manipulative individual ...
Your average politician then.
Post edited at 09:36
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In reply to FesteringSore:
Further resurgence in the power and influence of Russia.
> God forbid, if Trump wins what do you think will happen over the next four years?
Further resurgence in the power and influence of Russia.
Post edited at 09:44
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In reply to girlymonkey:
The safety nets have their limits. You can have the best constitution and the strongest institutions, they are not immune to change for the worst.
> My worry is not so much what he will do - I think there are enough safety nets to stop him doing anything too dangerous.
The safety nets have their limits. You can have the best constitution and the strongest institutions, they are not immune to change for the worst.
Post edited at 11:34
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In reply to jkarran:
Look how much Obama was limited by the Republican congress. There are limits on what he can do although probably enough loopholes to let him cause havoc.
> There aren't.
Look how much Obama was limited by the Republican congress. There are limits on what he can do although probably enough loopholes to let him cause havoc.
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In reply to RomTheBear:
There are countries without constitutions that are stable democracies and there are countries with constitutions that are dictatorships.
It's the tradition of accepting the result (like Gore & Nixon did when they lost in marginal/dubious results) and not imprisoning your opponent (eg Nixon wasn't prosecuted for Watergate) that counts just as much or more than a constitution
Trump questions accepting the result and threatens to imprison (not prosecute).
There are countries without constitutions that are stable democracies and there are countries with constitutions that are dictatorships.
It's the tradition of accepting the result (like Gore & Nixon did when they lost in marginal/dubious results) and not imprisoning your opponent (eg Nixon wasn't prosecuted for Watergate) that counts just as much or more than a constitution
Trump questions accepting the result and threatens to imprison (not prosecute).
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In reply to KevinD:
Forget loopholes and potential legislative chaos, the ignorant sociopathic man-child will have unfettered control of America's nuclear arsenal.
jk
> Look how much Obama was limited by the Republican congress. There are limits on what he can do although probably enough loopholes to let him cause havoc.
Forget loopholes and potential legislative chaos, the ignorant sociopathic man-child will have unfettered control of America's nuclear arsenal.
jk
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In reply to FesteringSore:
The top echelons of the SNP either get private jets or CIA rendition as Scotland becomes Trump Fantasy golf resort. The hold outs near his golf course in Aberdeenshire will end up in Guantanamo.
The top echelons of the SNP either get private jets or CIA rendition as Scotland becomes Trump Fantasy golf resort. The hold outs near his golf course in Aberdeenshire will end up in Guantanamo.
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In reply to jkarran:
This interview with DT's Art of the Deal ghostwriter is interesting, and a little troubling on the subject of nukes (if it's true there's no barrier between the President and deployment):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04dggn1
> sociopathic man-child will have unfettered control of America's nuclear arsenal
This interview with DT's Art of the Deal ghostwriter is interesting, and a little troubling on the subject of nukes (if it's true there's no barrier between the President and deployment):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04dggn1
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In reply to nufkin:
The launch decision has to be taken before the incoming ICBMs arrive* so there can be no barrier between the president and the nukes.
*30 minutes flight time from Russia but less for a submarine launch off the coast of the US?
The launch decision has to be taken before the incoming ICBMs arrive* so there can be no barrier between the president and the nukes.
*30 minutes flight time from Russia but less for a submarine launch off the coast of the US?
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In reply to jkarran:
That still needs someone to press the button once he gives the command.
> Forget loopholes and potential legislative chaos, the ignorant sociopathic man-child will have unfettered control of America's nuclear arsenal.
That still needs someone to press the button once he gives the command.
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In reply to KevinD:
Are you suggesting that we should rely on someone NOT carrying through his armageddon initiating edict ?
That would be worrying .
I'm not a big supporter on HC but I really really dislike Trump and worry for the future.
TS
> That still needs someone to press the button once he gives the command.
Are you suggesting that we should rely on someone NOT carrying through his armageddon initiating edict ?
That would be worrying .
I'm not a big supporter on HC but I really really dislike Trump and worry for the future.
TS
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In reply to wbo:
1. It sends out a terrible message about treatment of people, racism, mysogeny etc.
2. He'll be dealing with Putin who is VERY VERY scary. Putin isn't just words, he's wiped out areas of Ukraine and other areas feel very vulnerable.
Internationally this is not the time for Trump
Domestically 20 million people will lose health care. A colleagues mother in law committed suicide when her insurance ran out and she could no longer afford her medication for mental illness.
That's 20 million people who won't have access to healthcare until its too late.
A friend who is an emergency medic, paid around half a million a year is quitting the profession he's so depressed by the level of corruption and raw capitalism in medicine. He's convinced the only option is an NHS style US health care system. They already have the VA (which despite a few issues is fantastic) and could run out a bigger system.
Abortions will probably rise as they tend to under republican presidents (Ronald Raegan was the president when there were most abortions in the US) as they shut down family planning centers, trying to reduce abortions and end up causing a rise... sex education in schools will probably be stopped again and go back to an abstinence only approach the republicans favor, causing another spike in teenage pregnancies.
1. It sends out a terrible message about treatment of people, racism, mysogeny etc.
2. He'll be dealing with Putin who is VERY VERY scary. Putin isn't just words, he's wiped out areas of Ukraine and other areas feel very vulnerable.
Internationally this is not the time for Trump
Domestically 20 million people will lose health care. A colleagues mother in law committed suicide when her insurance ran out and she could no longer afford her medication for mental illness.
That's 20 million people who won't have access to healthcare until its too late.
A friend who is an emergency medic, paid around half a million a year is quitting the profession he's so depressed by the level of corruption and raw capitalism in medicine. He's convinced the only option is an NHS style US health care system. They already have the VA (which despite a few issues is fantastic) and could run out a bigger system.
Abortions will probably rise as they tend to under republican presidents (Ronald Raegan was the president when there were most abortions in the US) as they shut down family planning centers, trying to reduce abortions and end up causing a rise... sex education in schools will probably be stopped again and go back to an abstinence only approach the republicans favor, causing another spike in teenage pregnancies.
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In reply to KevinD:
The consequences of a military mutiny are scarcely any better.
jk
> That still needs someone to press the button once he gives the command.
The consequences of a military mutiny are scarcely any better.
jk
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In reply to jkarran:
Its not a mutiny. I believe the US military, same as the UK, has the right to disobey an unlawful order.
A spoilt child's choice of nuclear target would be a prime example of that.
> The consequences of a military mutiny are scarcely any better.
Its not a mutiny. I believe the US military, same as the UK, has the right to disobey an unlawful order.
A spoilt child's choice of nuclear target would be a prime example of that.
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In reply to jkarran:
The forces have already said they will refuse orders to execute the families of terrorists..
The forces have already said they will refuse orders to execute the families of terrorists..
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
And yet some look up to the USA as some sort of beacon of democracy and freedom.
> 1. It sends out a terrible message about treatment of people, racism, mysogeny etc.
> 2. He'll be dealing with Putin who is VERY VERY scary. Putin isn't just words, he's wiped out areas of Ukraine and other areas feel very vulnerable.
> Internationally this is not the time for Trump
> Domestically 20 million people will lose health care. A colleagues mother in law committed suicide when her insurance ran out and she could no longer afford her medication for mental illness.
> That's 20 million people who won't have access to healthcare until its too late.
> A friend who is an emergency medic, paid around half a million a year is quitting the profession he's so depressed by the level of corruption and raw capitalism in medicine. He's convinced the only option is an NHS style US health care system. They already have the VA (which despite a few issues is fantastic) and could run out a bigger system.
> Abortions will probably rise as they tend to under republican presidents (Ronald Raegan was the president when there were most abortions in the US) as they shut down family planning centers, trying to reduce abortions and end up causing a rise... sex education in schools will probably be stopped again and go back to an abstinence only approach the republicans favor, causing another spike in teenage pregnancies.
And yet some look up to the USA as some sort of beacon of democracy and freedom.
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In reply to Big Ger:
Thats good marketing for you.
> And yet some look up to the USA as some sort of beacon of democracy and freedom.
Thats good marketing for you.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
I predict he will try to create a crisis internally to extend his presidential powers, however he will come up against the constitution and we know how most Americans defend the right to bear arms ,so it may come down how far they will go to defend the constitution. Most right wing politicians try to create an enemy within and an enemy without, I think Trump has already picked his targets. Democracy - remember that Adolf Hitler was voted into power with the largest mandate (around 70% of the vote)of any leader in the western world.
I predict he will try to create a crisis internally to extend his presidential powers, however he will come up against the constitution and we know how most Americans defend the right to bear arms ,so it may come down how far they will go to defend the constitution. Most right wing politicians try to create an enemy within and an enemy without, I think Trump has already picked his targets. Democracy - remember that Adolf Hitler was voted into power with the largest mandate (around 70% of the vote)of any leader in the western world.
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In reply to Removed Userjess13:
"remember that Adolf Hitler was voted into power with the largest mandate (around 70% of the vote)of any leader in the western world."
Not really true, by that time elections in Germany has ceased to be truly open and democratic. The last properly open vote (march 33..and even then lots of Nazi intimidation) the Nazi party vote was low 30's (and had actually fallen since the prior vote)
"remember that Adolf Hitler was voted into power with the largest mandate (around 70% of the vote)of any leader in the western world."
Not really true, by that time elections in Germany has ceased to be truly open and democratic. The last properly open vote (march 33..and even then lots of Nazi intimidation) the Nazi party vote was low 30's (and had actually fallen since the prior vote)
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In reply to redjerry:
Yes but there are similarities between then and now generally.
Economic duress, new media (cinema) disrupting conventional news sources, scapegoating the other, nationalism.
Both Trump and May are on the side of "the workers", ie economically interventionist, socially conservative, think foreigners are only good for selling things to, believe in strong leadership and are authoritarian by nature. I am suprised I haven't heard talk of fascism light.
Yes but there are similarities between then and now generally.
Economic duress, new media (cinema) disrupting conventional news sources, scapegoating the other, nationalism.
Both Trump and May are on the side of "the workers", ie economically interventionist, socially conservative, think foreigners are only good for selling things to, believe in strong leadership and are authoritarian by nature. I am suprised I haven't heard talk of fascism light.
In reply to ian caton:
The Trump dog whistle is clearly fascist, his camp followers are white supremacists and that collection of groups who style themselves "patriots". Even the Principal Trump has been willing to publicly incite violence against anyone that questions him. If he wins, watch out for a "Great Leader in perpetuity" move!
The Trump dog whistle is clearly fascist, his camp followers are white supremacists and that collection of groups who style themselves "patriots". Even the Principal Trump has been willing to publicly incite violence against anyone that questions him. If he wins, watch out for a "Great Leader in perpetuity" move!
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In reply to Big Ger:
It's pretty shocking that 'voter suppression' and court cases for that are such a factor in the US.
There's maybe some dodgy stuff about postal votes and Dame Shirley Porter years ago but it's relatively rare and small scale here.
> And yet some look up to the USA as some sort of beacon of democracy and freedom.
It's pretty shocking that 'voter suppression' and court cases for that are such a factor in the US.
There's maybe some dodgy stuff about postal votes and Dame Shirley Porter years ago but it's relatively rare and small scale here.
In reply to KevinD:
I'm pretty sure that the chance of anyone in this position actually disobeying a direct order is minimised by the training and selection process.
> That still needs someone to press the button once he gives the command.
I'm pretty sure that the chance of anyone in this position actually disobeying a direct order is minimised by the training and selection process.
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In reply to RomTheBear:
Particularly at the hands of someone who already believes the rules don't apply to him and who is impervious to shame or embarrassment.
> The safety nets have their limits. You can have the best constitution and the strongest institutions, they are not immune to change for the worst.
Particularly at the hands of someone who already believes the rules don't apply to him and who is impervious to shame or embarrassment.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
Not much. There are sufficient checks and balances, especially since he is hated by his own party.
People seem to forget just how ludicrous the other Republican contenders were. We may be fortunate having Trump, with no support, rather than Cruz/Rubio/Carson/Christie with the blessings of their party.
Not much. There are sufficient checks and balances, especially since he is hated by his own party.
People seem to forget just how ludicrous the other Republican contenders were. We may be fortunate having Trump, with no support, rather than Cruz/Rubio/Carson/Christie with the blessings of their party.
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In reply to David Martin: this is important. There has been no moderate (to European eyes) republican candidate in a decade. The party had become a parody of itself even without the overt psychopathy of Trump.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
The world will become so preoccupied with the dealings of Trumputin and co, whether they fight or just scratch each others backs that no one will notice Chinese technology sailing stealthily ahead in space and by 2025 we'll be debating what to do when they have landed on the moon and nonchalantly claimed it
btw the current technological arms upgrade race in which both Russia and China are participating is somewhat worrying - we need someone cooler and saner than Trump in charge.
The world will become so preoccupied with the dealings of Trumputin and co, whether they fight or just scratch each others backs that no one will notice Chinese technology sailing stealthily ahead in space and by 2025 we'll be debating what to do when they have landed on the moon and nonchalantly claimed it
btw the current technological arms upgrade race in which both Russia and China are participating is somewhat worrying - we need someone cooler and saner than Trump in charge.
Post edited at 13:56
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In reply to David Martin:
If Trump wins, the Republicans will get over their hate pretty quickly in order to get at some of that power. Look what happened after the primaries where almost every one of those clowns was ready to endorse Trump if they could be groom of the stool.
> Not much. There are sufficient checks and balances, especially since he is hated by his own party.
If Trump wins, the Republicans will get over their hate pretty quickly in order to get at some of that power. Look what happened after the primaries where almost every one of those clowns was ready to endorse Trump if they could be groom of the stool.
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In reply to Dave Garnett:
Are you referring to Trump or Rom?
> In reply to RomTheBear:
> Particularly at the hands of someone who already believes the rules don't apply to him and who is impervious to shame or embarrassment.
> Particularly at the hands of someone who already believes the rules don't apply to him and who is impervious to shame or embarrassment.
Are you referring to Trump or Rom?
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In reply to FesteringSore:
When you look at and listen to the Trump supporters doesn't it feel like one of those zombie apocalypse movies everybody likes so much. Just watched a Trumpette on the news grinning and chuckling when asked if she was concerned about his treatment of women.
It's like some virus is eating out our brains. I've never felt so powerless. And there is nowhere to run to.
When you look at and listen to the Trump supporters doesn't it feel like one of those zombie apocalypse movies everybody likes so much. Just watched a Trumpette on the news grinning and chuckling when asked if she was concerned about his treatment of women.
It's like some virus is eating out our brains. I've never felt so powerless. And there is nowhere to run to.
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In reply to FesteringSore:
Where did this nightmare come from?
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun
https://lionsoftrumpdotnet.wordpress.com/mentions/lionsoftrump/
Where did this nightmare come from?
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun
https://lionsoftrumpdotnet.wordpress.com/mentions/lionsoftrump/
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