This topic has been archived, and won't accept reply postings.
Gone for good27 Dec 2015
An interesting series in prospect. The first test has started well for England despite another collapse this morning. I'm predicting a South Africa win 2 - 1.
I may have to review my series prediction! South Africa seem to have all the problems at the moment and England all the positives. Some really poor catching by the South Africa team which is very unusual and Morne Morkel looked absolutely knackered.
Me neither. Not only the first away win for a long time, but thrashing the number one ranked side. And with Steyn out and Anderson back for the next test you have to fancy a repeat in the next test. Talk of Graeme Smith being dragged back to take over from Amla by the end of the series.
England may not be settled on their best batting lineup but certainly look a more cohesive unit than SA who are fragile.
England to take at least 2 of the tests. I will go 3-1 England including a rare win in Cape Town - certainly started well enough! Touch wood!
1
Gone for good02 Jan 2016
In reply to Rampikino: Hindsight is a wonderful thing. My prediction, before the start of the series, was based on South Africa being ranked number 1 in the world despite the thrashing they took in India. They are playing on home soil. They had Dale Steyn back in the team having missed a large part of the India tour. England on the other hand had been outplayed by Pakistan in the UAE and none were in great form least of all Moeen Ali who went on to take 7 wickets in the first test and win man of the match. Having now seen how poorly South Africa are led by both the captain and the coaching team I fully expect England to win at least 2 if not 3 of the 4 tests. Another good day tomorrow and this test will be won.
In reply to Gone for good:
"Of the past 15 times that the visiting team have batted first in a Test at Newlands, they have been beaten on 13 occasions"
Was out on the bike all day (a bit soggy), but did England declare just about an hour after lunch ? Seems to me a bit premature. You've got 15 sessions in a test, so even if you are going really fast you aren't likely to run out of time by batting for 6 sessions- if the opposition can bat for 9 sessions they'll probably score more runs. But only 4.5 ?
Why not bat another session and get past 700 ? Really demoralise them. If Amla and JPdV bat at their best they could bring SA right back into the game
Flat wicket, ineffective bowlers so requires a brave declaration from SA yet certainly not impossible and the odds checker sites show optimism isn't dead with quite a few sites with odds around 10:1 for a SA win and 100;1 for an England win (SA should only have a slight advantage)
Doubt it (unless we are talking jangling nerves re embarrassment about bad luck of their own dismissal)... question is will they play out for the draw or really go for it tomorrow and face the small risk of the loss but retain the small chance of a win. More fizz or as flat as the pitch?
With England one-up in the series they won't go for the sporting declaration in order to make a match of it, so the only (slim) chance of a result would be an England collapse. They've just spent almost 16 hours in the field in hot conditions, even a flat wicket requires concentration. The odds you quoted - Eng 100/1, SA 10-1, seem right to me.
In reply to Chris the Tall: Twaddle. If England score as fast as the first innings they get a session and a bit bowling on the most friendly surface of the match, a very slim chance of a win and no chance of a loss (yes its riskier but there are slim risks of a loss in this approach). As for the difference in odds: seemingly no longer available... maybe as the new ball is 5 overs old and surprise, surprise they made stumps playing carefully with no loss.
Bit before my time !! But I do remember the other time England followed on, yet still won.
Thing is that cricket has changed dramatically over the last 10 years - when you get 196 scored off 25 overs, it means that England have to bat until tea to make the game safe. Pretty likely that they will do and the game will fizzle out, but not a certainty
No-one scored 196 off the first 25 overs of an innings in the last session of a test to win it. If England do play to entertain and score fast then they can declare a good few overs before tea. They probably won't and even if they do they probably will still only draw but to say there is no chance is plain daft.
Your dogged certainty that England cant win means I'll happily take a public 100:1 punt with you on the gentleman's choice in such circumstances (pints).... put your honour behind your bizarre pessimism.
Odds will have changed because England did survive that tricky spell - Amla rightly deciding that maiden century for Bavuma being more important than the small chance of a result.
But even less likely is that England will try and go for the win, doubt they get 100 in the morning, let alone 200. Hales will want to build a score and Cook isn't a slogger. If they go cheaply do you think they'll push Stokes and Bairstow up the order ? Try and set a target of 250 off 50 ? Not a chance
In reply to Chris the Tall: I'll take that (even though I agree a draw is highly likely). It is of course a no-lose situation for me given I'd be delighted to buy you a pint for your contributions at one of the BMC area meets this year.
In reply to Dave Garnett: My bet with Chris was because he denied England could win... the odds you could annoy me are approaching the same odds as an England win (averaging about 60:1 on Oddschecker at lunch so my 80 pints punt is going to be an honourable loss at worse). No Stokes wont score the fastest 250 again
It was serious squeaky bum time for a while but Bairstow and Moeen seem to have put England in a position where they probably can't lose. Maybe a broadside from Broad a la Trent Bridge will give England a chance to win but somehow I can't see it.
Well it would make for some interest.I still wonder why we declared in the first innings, rather than batting out the second day, posting a mammoth total on what was clearly a benign pitch and THEN declaring.
> Well it would make for some interest.I still wonder why we declared in the first innings, rather than batting out the second day, posting a mammoth total on what was clearly a benign pitch and THEN declaring.
Seems to be a pattern of England doing unexpectedly well and attributing this to previously unsuspected godlike powers, rather than assuming that the other side might also be able to do it on the same pitch.
Not if you look at the weather (which was forecast). Looks like I owe you the pint but I atill think England had a slim chance (if they did well this morning or did badly)
Yep, as I said on Sunday, reckon England declared a session too early. Could have gone past 700, maybe even 750, and still had an hour to bowl on Day 2.
But I guess the thinking was it would take 4 or 5 sessions at least to bowl SA out, in which case you'd want to rest the bowlers regardless of whether it was possible to enforce the follow-on
Its a problem in both directions. Reading the over by over coverage today it was on balance (weather and wear) a bowlers pitch today and yet there will still be talk of poor performance. Overall the wicket was almost certainly not up to test standards and so we are lucky to have got so much entertainment out of it.
To be honest I don't see it making much difference. If England get a decent pitch in Joberg they should win as they have better bowlers than South Africa (without Steyn) and I can't imagine they will catch as badly as they did in Cape Town.
Either way it's a much more equal contest than I originally anticipated and I'm looking forward to the 3rd test as much as I have any Ashes test.
A good day in the field by England. No dropped catches and some loose stroke play by the Saffers have helped put the English in a strong position. Morne Morkel will be difficult to play but the pitch isn't doing much and the ball isn't swinging in the air so hopefully the batsman can control themselves and put some big runs on the board.
In reply to Gone for good: You're a bit optimistic... any big runs will be amazing unless conditions change unexpectedly. Some trivia to get the point over: 313 is the second highest first-innings score at the 'Wanderers' in the last decade (behind Australia’s 466 in 2009,). The average first-innings score in the last decade is 265.5 and the average completed second-innings score in the last decade is 210.
England 27/2 at lunch - poor start but thankfully England have plenty of batting down the order, doesn't sound like we want to concede a first innings deficit
To be fair I did say "if the batsmen can control themselves" which they haven't been able to. More loose stroke play as well as good bowling has put the pressure on Root and Compton. I knew 300 ish was par for a team batting first but with England's batting line up I expected a better start. As always time will tell.
In reply to Gone for good:
Went out for a little lunchtime cycle and England were in trouble at 98-4, came back and they were 233/5. I didn't think I'd been gone that long !
Great stuff from Root - glad to see he has got a ton this time after so many 50s. Let hope England can get a three figure lead (cue inevitable collapse)
In reply to Chris the Tall: Brilliant batting from both given the conditions and situation in the match (Stokes with 58 from 54). The weather forecast remains dubious though.
I might have offered 500 to 1 at that time just to keep you well behaved. Given what and when SA were all out today this was an almost certain England win or a very tiny outside chance of a bad weather draw. Brilliant stuff from England (even against an understrength side in a bit of a managerial muddle)....really pleased for them.... another series like this and they might hit No1.
Amazing spell from Broad - 5 wickets for 1 run, and that run was the dropped catch by Anderson. And yet hard to believe he is now 3rd on the English all-time list, as he usually seems to be somewhat overshadowed by Anderson. But when he gets on a roll, he's unstoppable
Broad is absolutely devasting on his day, isn't he? Boycott likes to compare him to Glenn McGrath when Broad having one of his miracle spells. Not sure if that makes me happy or sad. If only he could be that good every game. But he's picked himself up from a rough patch and got his batting back on song too. Well done that man.
I was driving through Capel Curig this morning when Joe Root was given out. I got back to my car this evening after a jolly good time up Y Gribin and once I got some radio reception realised that England had rolled over the Saffers and polished off a paltry run chase. Broad has been brilliant this last 18 months as has the rest of the bowling attack. Exciting times for an exciting England team.
I have this vision of you 2 following one another all day, both some what miffed about this other person that always goes the way you want to/is following when you just want a nice solitary walk!
Podcast Mountain Air - 4. Renan Ozturk on the Sanctity of Space
Gear News The Art of Climbing – Out Now
Press Release Alpkit and Outside Bank Holiday Hathersage Tent Show 4-5th May
Fri Night Vid Finding Focus - Life Behind The Lens of a Climbing Photographer
This week's Friday Night Video is a portrait of a prolific climbing photographer from Wedge Climbing. Sam Pratt is well known in both the outdoor and competition scene but if you haven't heard of him, you've likely seen...