/ Forecast interpretation / avalanche risk
Looking at a weather forecast for the Ecrins for the next week or so, it doesn't look great. The 0C isotherm is forecast to be above 4000m from the 19th onwards, and rarely below 3700m. Lots of thunderstorm action forecast, and with it rain at altitude.
Can anyone decipher what this means in terms of avalanche risk? My avalanche knowledge is rudimentary, but the combination of the warm temperatures and especially the rain has got me concerned about the potential for wet snow avalanches on the sort of terrain we're likely to be on (easy normal routes about the Glacier Blanc - the Roche Faurio and similar). That things don't seem likely to refreeze overnight is concerning me too.
Does anyone have a more refined analysis or advice to throw into the mix? I've never been out in summer in conditions that have made me think twice about the snow, so this is a novelty.
Some of the best people to ask advice in this kind of situation in the Alps are very often the hut guardians. You could try contacting the guardian of the Refuge des Ecrins?
Calling the Ecrins hut for their thoughts was my plan once I'm in the country. Given the stormy forecast our bivi plans will probably turn into staying at one or other of the huts, so I'll have to speak to them regardless. Last time I stayed there they were beyond helpful when it came to finding suitable objectives and avoiding things in poor condition.
I would go cragging until the weather goes through, then enquire at the guides office...
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