UKC

Tentatively, from the Covid dashboard map, latest data used up to 14/10, it looks like the 7-day rate around Merseyside is now close to flat or even slightly falling compared to the previous 7-day rate. This includes non student areas. Perhaps this is the delayed effect of the strict version of Tier 2 that we had here since 3rd October, and people generally being more cautious as a result? Obviously Tier 3 will have made no difference yet.

The seven day averages in Newcastle, Gateshead and Sunderland (which picked up those same restrictions a week before Merseyside) are now all dropping too - significantly in the student areas.

Any views?

Low reporting over the weekend and were still all doomed?

I'm not sure if the data shows that a weekend reporting lag would usually mean that data by specimen date is underplayed up to the previous Thursday by the time you include all the data up to that reported on Monday (I think that would only be true if a significant number of tests were taking more than 4 days.) Not sure if wintertree is still keeping his bar chart lord, they would show whether that's true.