In reply to The Ice Doctor:
Because you are well educated? (the data is very clear that in/out divided across educational level; as well as age etc).
Like any vote, vote leave was a broad coalition:
- manual workers, many outside SE/London, howl of pain and disgust against austerity/community,industry decline; read the Sun and the shite therein - 'nothing to lose' 'it couldn't be any worse'
- Older generation, often rural, distrustful of social change and diversity, did well out of the baby boom/welfare state (ironically not sharing progressive views of state/social contract represetned by EU); but not necessarily well educated (missed out on expansion of HE), read the Daily Mail or Express and the shite therein. 'Make Britain great again/pull up the drawbridge'
- a whole mass of people who don't seem to fit either of the above, do ok in life, very a-political, don't read newspapers or watch BBC news, but are swayed by propaganda/lies on social media. Didn't really know how to vote but were swayed by the opinions of friends and the seemingly reasonable/persuasive rhetoric (lies) of Gove, Johnson, Leadsom etc. Naive voters easily swayed by appeals to emotion: 'security' 'take back control' '£350m for the NHS'
- clever, quite well educated but somewhat blinkered single issue voters: 'immigration is simply too high'; 'the vote was only about sovereignty' 'EU is falling apart anyway/flawed project, so we should go our own way' [this group I still find utterly baffling]
Remain side never tackled any of these with clear differentiated message of why they are ALL false, or at least much more complex and nuanced in reality AND communicated the clear reality of how intimately connected to the EU (and therefore the real damage/costs of leaving NOR the contribution the EU makes to our society and vice versa.
Re the OP. My current view is that we will leave in some form of soft Brexit - either in the SM or with a transitional agreement - which is clearly a fudge (and a very costly one at that) but will hopefully be enough to take the sting out of enough Leave sentiment. It clearly won't satisfy committed leavers but they are a small constituency.