This topic has been archived, and won't accept reply postings.
Any informed opinion on who might win?
Is Contador going to dance away from LA when they hit the Alps? Or does Armstrong have something he hasn't shown yet?
Will the Astana support Contador if he proves to be stronger than Armstrong?
My uninformed opinion from watching it so far is that Contador is looking much stronger, which is a pity. But Armstrong often seems to have something up his sleeve, maybe he is purposefully avoiding his historic tactic of taking the lead on the first mtn stage and defending it to Paris as he knows it's too predictable.
Or even A.N.Other, although I haven't seen anyone who looks like they have the oomph
Is Contador going to dance away from LA when they hit the Alps? Or does Armstrong have something he hasn't shown yet?
Will the Astana support Contador if he proves to be stronger than Armstrong?
My uninformed opinion from watching it so far is that Contador is looking much stronger, which is a pity. But Armstrong often seems to have something up his sleeve, maybe he is purposefully avoiding his historic tactic of taking the lead on the first mtn stage and defending it to Paris as he knows it's too predictable.
Or even A.N.Other, although I haven't seen anyone who looks like they have the oomph
In reply to ClimberEd: Contador will win by a distance. Better climber and as good (if not better) TT'er.
In reply to MJH:
Really?
But Armstrong got stronger during the Giro, if he does the same during the Tour he could be a threat.
Really?
But Armstrong got stronger during the Giro, if he does the same during the Tour he could be a threat.
In reply to ClimberEd: Yes, really. Contador beat LA by 22secs over 16km in the Prologue and is the better climber now. LA at his best may have been a challenge, but given 3.5 years out + his age I just can't see him beating Contador in the hills or the longer TT.
Contador won the Vuelta and Giro last year (he wasn't able to defend his Tour title because Astana were banned).
Contador won the Vuelta and Giro last year (he wasn't able to defend his Tour title because Astana were banned).
In reply to MJH:
its not all about being the fastest or the better climber. As LA showed AC in the breakaway last week...
its not all about being the fastest or the better climber. As LA showed AC in the breakaway last week...
In reply to stonewall:
LA / AC run the risk of being so busy with their own rivalry and having seen them effectively put other big names like Menchov, Evans and Sastre out of the picture, that someone could surprise them - though in relity if neither LA or AC win, the moslt likely victor will be Kloden.
If Brad Wiggins continues to go well uphill, he could be in with a shout of upsetting the Astana applecart as he's likely to take time out of almost everyone (except Cancellara) on the time trial at Annency.
He's ridden a very canny race so far, whilst the bigger 'names' have all lost ground on the Astana juggernaut.
With the number of good British riders coming through the ranks, and the formation of the new Sky team, the stated aim of a British TDF winner within 5 years is not looking such a daft idea after all.
LA / AC run the risk of being so busy with their own rivalry and having seen them effectively put other big names like Menchov, Evans and Sastre out of the picture, that someone could surprise them - though in relity if neither LA or AC win, the moslt likely victor will be Kloden.
If Brad Wiggins continues to go well uphill, he could be in with a shout of upsetting the Astana applecart as he's likely to take time out of almost everyone (except Cancellara) on the time trial at Annency.
He's ridden a very canny race so far, whilst the bigger 'names' have all lost ground on the Astana juggernaut.
With the number of good British riders coming through the ranks, and the formation of the new Sky team, the stated aim of a British TDF winner within 5 years is not looking such a daft idea after all.
In reply to Lord of Starkness: 'cept I don't think that Wiggins would move to Team Sky. I think he'll stay with Garmin (particularly if he does well overall in the Tour).
In reply to stonewall: No it isn't , but that is normally how the tour is won or lost - by being a decent climber (not necessarily the best) and a good TT'er.
What happened last week was not the "normal" run of things - still excellent anticipation/luck from LA.
What happened last week was not the "normal" run of things - still excellent anticipation/luck from LA.
In reply to Aimless King:
I dont necessarily think a British tour victor will be a Sky rider, but a lot will depend on contracts and budgets. My point was that there is a lot of very good young talent starting to break through into the continental road ranks. Success by the likes of Wiggins, Cavendish, Millar, and youngsters like Swift and Kennaugh can only be good for the profile of British cycling.
I can remember when just having a Brit actually finish the TDF was hailed as a major achievement.
Even so, mega bucks in any sport does not guarantee success -- just look how many European titles Chelski and Real Madrid have won in recent years.
I dont necessarily think a British tour victor will be a Sky rider, but a lot will depend on contracts and budgets. My point was that there is a lot of very good young talent starting to break through into the continental road ranks. Success by the likes of Wiggins, Cavendish, Millar, and youngsters like Swift and Kennaugh can only be good for the profile of British cycling.
I can remember when just having a Brit actually finish the TDF was hailed as a major achievement.
Even so, mega bucks in any sport does not guarantee success -- just look how many European titles Chelski and Real Madrid have won in recent years.
In reply to Aimless King:
Wiggans announced on his Twitter page that he's not going to Sky.
As for LA/AC, my prediction is for LA to support AC, but to get a stage win.
AC gets the tour, then Astana falls apart and LA recruits AC and Johan Bruyneel (and Cav) to ride for a new 'Livestrong' team.
PS I know very little about cycling.
> (In reply to Lord of Starkness) 'cept I don't think that Wiggins would move to Team Sky. I think he'll stay with Garmin (particularly if he does well overall in the Tour).
Wiggans announced on his Twitter page that he's not going to Sky.
As for LA/AC, my prediction is for LA to support AC, but to get a stage win.
AC gets the tour, then Astana falls apart and LA recruits AC and Johan Bruyneel (and Cav) to ride for a new 'Livestrong' team.
PS I know very little about cycling.
In reply to stonewall:
LA could possibly have had the nod from his old team mate Hincape that soemthing was about to happen!
> (In reply to MJH)
>
> its not all about being the fastest or the better climber. As LA showed AC in the breakaway last week...
>
> its not all about being the fastest or the better climber. As LA showed AC in the breakaway last week...
LA could possibly have had the nod from his old team mate Hincape that soemthing was about to happen!
In reply to xyz:
It's also possible that he knows Hincapie well enough to realise that he was up to something (and don't forget that Cancellera was together enough to get forward before the corner too)
It's also possible that he knows Hincapie well enough to realise that he was up to something (and don't forget that Cancellera was together enough to get forward before the corner too)
In reply to MJH: Agree. I stand by my post of last week when I asserted it would be 'bad' for cycling if a 37 year-old former great could come back after 3 years' retirement and beat a 26 year-old future great at the top of his game. Armstrong has put in a creditable performance so far and, hopefully, will finish in the Top 5, but Contador is looking very good at the moment for the win (which would be 2 tours, a Giro and a Vuelta by the age of 27).
In reply to Marc C:
i disagree that it would be 'bad' for cycling. it all depends on what you admire. if LA beats ' a 26 year-old future great at the top of his game' doesn't that tell you that LA is rather special ?
i disagree that it would be 'bad' for cycling. it all depends on what you admire. if LA beats ' a 26 year-old future great at the top of his game' doesn't that tell you that LA is rather special ?
In reply to ClimberEd: Contador I hope..
In reply to ClimberEd: certainly agree Contador is looking good - his burst of acceleration in the Pyrenees was stunning - but can't help thinking Armstrong is still playing a tactical waiting game and has something in reserve. I think the climbs in the Alps will suit Lance better than those in the Pyrenees. Basically I think it's still very much in the balance but that makes it so much more fascinating to watch than if one or other was clearly dominant, doesn't it? Personally I hope we're still trying to guess who's the stronger when they reach the foot of Mont Ventoux - and really hope Wiggins is still in the mix too!
In reply to Marc C:
I'm not bothered either way but I find that rather a strange assertion. If Contador can't beat Armstrong he is either not at the top of his game or not as good as he is reckoned to be.
> (In reply to MJH) it would be 'bad' for cycling if a 37 year-old former great could come back after 3 years' retirement and beat a 26 year-old future great at the top of his game.
I'm not bothered either way but I find that rather a strange assertion. If Contador can't beat Armstrong he is either not at the top of his game or not as good as he is reckoned to be.
In reply to ClimberEd: Having seen lance win in his dull calculating style 7 times before without a rival itll be great to see young impulsive riders such as Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador drop him in the alps. He hasn't got a chance. Top ten perhaps but i doubt he'll win a stage.
In reply to Horse: I'm not bothered either way as well.
The bloke who thought LA won in a dull way 7 times clearly watched different Tours to me.
The bloke who thought LA won in a dull way 7 times clearly watched different Tours to me.
In reply to MJH: Question is what will happen tomorrow when the race can't be directed from the team cars. Thought it was quite amusing on the ITV coverage when they showed the meeting where cries of rider safety were given as the main reason for team radios. It was then pointed out that the riders protest over compulsory helmet wearing was only a few years ago! Apparently they will still have a nuetral radio to give safety info, the big loss will be Bruyneel's et al lack of ability to direct their men re. break aways/splits etc i.e real racing where the rider makes the decision.
Lets hope it happens, lets hope the UCI stick with it.
One other thing was Bjarne Riis comments about sponsors, yet drug use within HIS team has lost major sponsors!
Lets hope it happens, lets hope the UCI stick with it.
One other thing was Bjarne Riis comments about sponsors, yet drug use within HIS team has lost major sponsors!
In reply to ClimberEd: i don't think contador will have made any friends in astana after his fun and games a few days ago. i suspect it will be as much who the astana riders want to support as anything else.
but i know f all about cycling except i get 3 days of it going within half an hour of me next week!
but i know f all about cycling except i get 3 days of it going within half an hour of me next week!
In reply to Removed User: There will just be people nipping to and from the team manager's car (as used to happen) - I can't see that it will have any real impact in terms of tactics. It will just be more of a hassle for the teams.
In reply to MJH:
Wont it mean that the pelaton won't know how far away a breakaway is etc? Thus forcing more containing tactics..?
> (In reply to IainFP) There will just be people nipping to and from the team manager's car (as used to happen) - I can't see that it will have any real impact in terms of tactics. It will just be more of a hassle for the teams.
Wont it mean that the pelaton won't know how far away a breakaway is etc? Thus forcing more containing tactics..?
In reply to MJH:
But how practical will that be, especially if the pace is high/moutain stages. Surely it would open the race up more to attacking riders?
> (In reply to IainFP) There will just be people nipping to and from the team manager's car (as used to happen) - I can't see that it will have any real impact in terms of tactics. It will just be more of a hassle for the teams.
But how practical will that be, especially if the pace is high/moutain stages. Surely it would open the race up more to attacking riders?
In reply to ClimberEd:
No, time gaps are shown by the chalk board man on the motorbike.
I'm sure it would give attackers a better chance as more of the racing decisions would need to be taken by the riders on the road.
The use of team radios and direction from the cars using tv coverage was one of the big factors used by Bruyneel IIRC.
Maybe I'm totally wrong, but the anti-radio arguments have me thinking it would be a good move. Apparently it's been used in the French national series this year?
> (In reply to MJH)
> [...]
>
> Wont it mean that the pelaton won't know how far away a breakaway is etc? Thus forcing more containing tactics..?
> [...]
>
> Wont it mean that the pelaton won't know how far away a breakaway is etc? Thus forcing more containing tactics..?
No, time gaps are shown by the chalk board man on the motorbike.
I'm sure it would give attackers a better chance as more of the racing decisions would need to be taken by the riders on the road.
The use of team radios and direction from the cars using tv coverage was one of the big factors used by Bruyneel IIRC.
Maybe I'm totally wrong, but the anti-radio arguments have me thinking it would be a good move. Apparently it's been used in the French national series this year?
In reply to Removed User:
saw Bjarne riis hint on Danish news that the teams who protested about the no radio trial, might just go ahead and use them anyway.
saw Bjarne riis hint on Danish news that the teams who protested about the no radio trial, might just go ahead and use them anyway.
In reply to Mokkel:
Unfortunately I could imagine that happening. Riis is someone I find it hard to listen to when honesty/fair play/right is being discussed.
I guess there are going to be toys getting chucked in all directions along with a bit of foot stamping. Can't help but feel that there is some parrallels with the farce that is F1.
> (In reply to IainFP)
>
> saw Bjarne riis hint on Danish news that the teams who protested about the no radio trial, might just go ahead and use them anyway.
>
> saw Bjarne riis hint on Danish news that the teams who protested about the no radio trial, might just go ahead and use them anyway.
Unfortunately I could imagine that happening. Riis is someone I find it hard to listen to when honesty/fair play/right is being discussed.
I guess there are going to be toys getting chucked in all directions along with a bit of foot stamping. Can't help but feel that there is some parrallels with the farce that is F1.
In reply to Removed User:
Riis is a prober tit.
Remember seeing him often on Danish tv, and when asked the question which was always asked "did you use epo" he would give this smirk and say "i was never tested positive" and then turn and walk away.
Then ofcourse years later when it suddenly was in his favour to come clean he did so.
About the radio he said "what will they do, throw us all out and run a race with 5 teams" would be hillarious if they did throw them out.
Would like to see him explain that to his sponsors.
Riis is a prober tit.
Remember seeing him often on Danish tv, and when asked the question which was always asked "did you use epo" he would give this smirk and say "i was never tested positive" and then turn and walk away.
Then ofcourse years later when it suddenly was in his favour to come clean he did so.
About the radio he said "what will they do, throw us all out and run a race with 5 teams" would be hillarious if they did throw them out.
Would like to see him explain that to his sponsors.
In reply to Removed User: Stage 10 is pretty flat IIRC so shouldn't be too much of an issue. Stage 13 is more hilly so might be a problem.
I guess that no one remotely near the front of the GC will be allowed to get away, but that happens normally anyway.
I guess that no one remotely near the front of the GC will be allowed to get away, but that happens normally anyway.
In reply to Horse: Exactly my point, Horse: Contador WILL beat Armstrong and SHOULD do.
In reply to stonewall: To win 7 tours makes LA rather 'special' But surely it's time for a new generation? Anquetil was special, Merckx was special, Hinault was special, Indurain was special - I don't think LA is somehow a once in a million years 'one-off' (As many of his fans on here seem to imply).
In reply to Marc C:
I think he was. OK he was a great athlete but he was also a great manager, nothing was left to chance, he controlled every controlable factor, used his team superbly. As Mercxk (sp) said, I think, he was the greatest tour rider of all time. Maybe not the greatest rider but 7 tours says it all.
> (In reply to stonewall) I don't think LA is somehow a once in a million years 'one-off' (As many of his fans on here seem to imply).
I think he was. OK he was a great athlete but he was also a great manager, nothing was left to chance, he controlled every controlable factor, used his team superbly. As Mercxk (sp) said, I think, he was the greatest tour rider of all time. Maybe not the greatest rider but 7 tours says it all.
In reply to IainRUK: 'One in a million years'?! Hmm, we're not going to agree on this Agree, he really channeled all his energy (planning, resources, training, organisation etc) into Le Tour. I may be wrong, but I suspect Contador will, in a few years' time, be seen to be a GREAT 'all-round' champion (and without the ban would possibly already be heading for 3 tours).
In reply to Marc C: as quite a big LA fan, ive been watching this post un-fold. Im forming the opinion he does have some ace up his sleeve, he has sent a mixed message to the press though
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/cycling/8138996.stm
and i quote "The American would have become the oldest man to wear the yellow jersey if he had pipped Cancellara, but afterwards he suggested that he may not be able to keep up his challenge.
"I wanted to be one of the strongest in the race," he said. "I think that I am but I may not be the strongest to win. I think someone on this team will win."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/cycling/8138996.stm
and i quote "The American would have become the oldest man to wear the yellow jersey if he had pipped Cancellara, but afterwards he suggested that he may not be able to keep up his challenge.
"I wanted to be one of the strongest in the race," he said. "I think that I am but I may not be the strongest to win. I think someone on this team will win."
In reply to Marc C:
Ok we'll resurrect this thread in 10 years and see how many Paris - Roubaix Contador has won
Enty
> I may be wrong, but I suspect Contador will, in a few years' time, be seen to be a GREAT 'all-round' champion .
Ok we'll resurrect this thread in 10 years and see how many Paris - Roubaix Contador has won
Enty
In reply to ClimberEd: lance has done well so far which is great but I think contador will prob win in the end
That said you never know with lance, he's often pulled it out of the bag when needed, he's remarkable
That said you never know with lance, he's often pulled it out of the bag when needed, he's remarkable
In reply to Marc C:
Well it didn't seem to be the point at all. You seemed to be implying that if the new youngster doesn't beat the old guy it is somehow bad, clearly a nonsense.
Sport doesn't deal in SHOULD, there are lots of shoulds that never came off, to pick a couple of more amusing ones Australia should have won on Sunday New Zealand should of won the last RWC etc neither did. What matters is that the deed is done.
Well it didn't seem to be the point at all. You seemed to be implying that if the new youngster doesn't beat the old guy it is somehow bad, clearly a nonsense.
Sport doesn't deal in SHOULD, there are lots of shoulds that never came off, to pick a couple of more amusing ones Australia should have won on Sunday New Zealand should of won the last RWC etc neither did. What matters is that the deed is done.
In reply to Horse: Ok, we'll see who's yellow in Paris - facts will speak for themselves (as no doubt you'd agree). My 'nonsensical' point is that IMO, in any athletic sport, the champion of the day 'should' (I'll allow you the element of unpredictability) beat the ex-champ who retired years ago OTHERWISE it casts present day standards in a bad light (e.g. Botham coming out of retirement and scoring a century against the Aussies; Bjorn Borg beating Roger Federer; Johnny Dawes repeating Dave Mac's routes).
In reply to Enty:
Or look back 10 years and see how many Vueltas, Giros...or, for that matter Paris-Roubaix, that LA has won
> Ok we'll resurrect this thread in 10 years and see how many Paris - Roubaix Contador has won
>
> Enty
>
> Enty
Or look back 10 years and see how many Vueltas, Giros...or, for that matter Paris-Roubaix, that LA has won
In reply to Marc C:
I think you're right, except that Armstrong hasn't been out of the sport for that long - all your other examples are people who have been out for decades.
> My 'nonsensical' point is that IMO, in any athletic sport, the champion of the day 'should' (I'll allow you the element of unpredictability) beat the ex-champ who retired years ago OTHERWISE it casts present day standards in a bad light
I think you're right, except that Armstrong hasn't been out of the sport for that long - all your other examples are people who have been out for decades.
In reply to psd: Ok, maybe not the best examples, but at least you get my point - which most LA-ficionados on here don't seem to!
In reply to Marc C:
As I said I'm not much bothered either way. I am not sure you examples are actually very good. LA has not been away that long, clearly isn't passed his sell by date and still has his racers instinct.
Other cricketing examples might be Boycott packing it in and coming back or Brian Close being recalled years later to face the Windies pace attack. Oh and I wouldn't bet against Botham making a century if he did come back, 5 wickets might be stretching it.
As I said I'm not much bothered either way. I am not sure you examples are actually very good. LA has not been away that long, clearly isn't passed his sell by date and still has his racers instinct.
Other cricketing examples might be Boycott packing it in and coming back or Brian Close being recalled years later to face the Windies pace attack. Oh and I wouldn't bet against Botham making a century if he did come back, 5 wickets might be stretching it.
In reply to ClimberEd:
reckon Contador will win - not necessarily cos he's better alone - but because he has a great team arond him as well as being amazing himself. Lance is there to play mindgames with the other teams and make them think there are probs in Astana but I reckon LA is making sure Cont is best placed to win, I reckon he'll be a team player. But who knows in the end, only them.
reckon Contador will win - not necessarily cos he's better alone - but because he has a great team arond him as well as being amazing himself. Lance is there to play mindgames with the other teams and make them think there are probs in Astana but I reckon LA is making sure Cont is best placed to win, I reckon he'll be a team player. But who knows in the end, only them.
In reply to Spike:
i don't really see why someone would come out of retirement with the aim to play some bit part in a drama. surely he has better things to do with his time?
> (In reply to ClimberEd)
> I reckon LA is making sure Cont is best placed to win, I reckon he'll be a team player. But who knows in the end, only them.
> I reckon LA is making sure Cont is best placed to win, I reckon he'll be a team player. But who knows in the end, only them.
i don't really see why someone would come out of retirement with the aim to play some bit part in a drama. surely he has better things to do with his time?
In reply to Tobias at Home:
To get amazing coverage for his Livestrong charity.
Enty
> (In reply to Spike)
> [...]
>
> i don't really see why someone would come out of retirement with the aim to play some bit part in a drama. surely he has better things to do with his time?
> [...]
>
> i don't really see why someone would come out of retirement with the aim to play some bit part in a drama. surely he has better things to do with his time?
To get amazing coverage for his Livestrong charity.
Enty
In reply to Enty:
And to 'prove' that he wasn't on drugs back then? Top ten aged 37 after three years and three months out followed by nine months of training would be highly impressive and, clean, good evidence of his ability to win clean when younger and in regular training?
Besides which, he might well enjoy this more than being a beer drinking beach bum with a side line in multi-million pound fund-raising?
And to 'prove' that he wasn't on drugs back then? Top ten aged 37 after three years and three months out followed by nine months of training would be highly impressive and, clean, good evidence of his ability to win clean when younger and in regular training?
Besides which, he might well enjoy this more than being a beer drinking beach bum with a side line in multi-million pound fund-raising?
In reply to Horse:
I believe that back in the 90's, when he was following the touring side as an expert/journo, he still put in more time in the nets than any of the team.
And he would regularly remind both them and his readers of that fact.
Wouldn't be suprised if even now he kept his whites in the car whenever he goes to a test, just in case....
> Other cricketing examples might be Boycott packing it in and coming back
I believe that back in the 90's, when he was following the touring side as an expert/journo, he still put in more time in the nets than any of the team.
And he would regularly remind both them and his readers of that fact.
Wouldn't be suprised if even now he kept his whites in the car whenever he goes to a test, just in case....
In reply to Enty:
I think partly that. I think he missed the buzz of the tour. An all time great runner has just suggested his calling it a day at running long ultras and he said how he loves being 'in the mix', and I think that's what Lance missed. I think he's come backl to be 'in the mix', stir it up, get the adrenalin going again.
> (In reply to Tobias at Home)
> [...]
>
> To get amazing coverage for his Livestrong charity.
>
> Enty
> [...]
>
> To get amazing coverage for his Livestrong charity.
>
> Enty
I think partly that. I think he missed the buzz of the tour. An all time great runner has just suggested his calling it a day at running long ultras and he said how he loves being 'in the mix', and I think that's what Lance missed. I think he's come backl to be 'in the mix', stir it up, get the adrenalin going again.
This topic has been archived, and won't accept reply postings.
Loading Notifications...