/ Brexit. Good news!

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Sir Chasm - on 12 May 2017
Post your brexit good news stories here.
1
MG - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

This is making me feel much better. Good topic.
1
Big Ger - on 12 May 2017
In reply to MG:
Thanks for this, it's exciting!!


"Britain’s factories enjoyed their fastest growth for three years last month on the back of strong demand at home and abroad, according to a survey that will temper worries about a Brexit-driven economic slowdown this year.

The manufacturing sector, which makes up about a tenth of the UK economy, enjoyed the strongest pick-up in new work since the start of 2014 and smashed expectations in April. Firms also took on new workers at a faster pace and ramped up production, the closely watched Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (pdf) showed.

Its main barometer of business activity jumped to 57.3 in April from 54.2 in March. That confounded forecasts for a modest slowdown to 54.0 in a Reuters poll of economists."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/02/uk-manufacturing-sees-fastest-growth-in-three-years...

Post edited at 08:47
3
Andy DB on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

I'm paid in USD!
gribble - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Less Farage & co on the TV.
1
stevieb - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

House prices are falling, especially in central london
1
Bjartur i Sumarhus on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Juncker having another headache to add to his self inflicted hangover.
Gordon Stainforth - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

That reassuring feeling of 'Englishness' and 'sovereignty'. I can't tell you much about it because it's very hard to put into words, so I've drawn a lovely picture of it:






















As you can see, it's quite subtle. But it has the huge advantage that there's nothing there to spoil the view, no nasty black ink.
7
Crewey-Rob on 12 May 2017
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Ah... the white cliffs of Dover emerging from a misty sea...
Gordon Stainforth - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Crewey-Rob:

> Ah... the white cliffs of Dover emerging from a misty sea...

One of the thrills of being an artist is to hear the brilliant interpretations brought to one's work by members of the general public. They often bring startling new insights. Thanks.
1
Big Ger - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> But it has the huge advantage that there's nothing there to spoil the view, no nasty black ink.

And, after Brexit, a lot less red ink too! Hooray!!

8
RX-78 on 12 May 2017
In reply to Crewey-Rob:

Funny, I saw the cairngorms in a white out.
Dax H - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

I don't know if brexit is anything to do with it but all my customers, mostly SME's are rammed with work and expanding and buying new machines from me.
Big Ger - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

"U.K.-based virtual reality start-up, Improbable, has raised $502 million in one of the largest investments for a European technology business at the embryonic stage of its development.

Japanese technology conglomerate, SoftBank, opted to back Improbable in a funding round which has valued the business at approximately $1 billion.

"We believe that the next major phase in computing will be the emergence of large-scale virtual worlds which enrich human experience and change how we understand the real world," Herman Narula, CEO of Improbable, said in a statement late Thursday.

The tech firm argues its innovative Spatial OS operating system could allow small developers to build vast simulations despite potentially limited resources in infrastructure.

Improbable was founded just five years ago by two Cambridge University computer science graduates in order to create large-scale virtual worlds and simulations."
4
Gordon Stainforth - on 12 May 2017
In reply to RX-78:

> Funny, I saw the cairngorms in a white out.

Interesting interpretation. But it's a bit of a slap in the face to me because you seem to have missed the key point: its essential Englishness.
2
Babika - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

I am getting a kind of schadenfreude from seeing the pompous Euro technocrats get more and more huffy with every statement that comes out of their lips.

They're really not doing themselves any favours in terms of making us miss them
5
Big Ger - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

"The monthly survey of construction purchasing managers indicates that April data saw the strongest rise in new work so far this year, which survey respondents linked to the resilient economic backdrop and a sustained improvement in client demand.

Greater workloads underpinned a further increase in employment numbers and the most marked rise in input buying since November 2016.

Meanwhile, robust demand for construction materials and upward pressure on costs from sterling depreciation resulted in another steep increase in input prices during April. "
2
David Riley - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

I'm getting more orders (electronics) from Europe than usual.
If the EU make my customers pay import duty it's not going to put them off.
Postmanpat on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

"Brexit will prove to be little more than a bump in the road for the UK economy in the long run and the country will successfully defend its spot as one of the world’s fastest growing developed economies in decades to come, according to predictions published in a new study.

Professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers in a report published on Tuesday projects that the UK will slide just one place—to 10th from 9th—in the global purchasing power parity (PPP) rankings by 2050."
7
Bogwalloper - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

> "Brexit will prove to be little more than a bump in the road for the UK economy in the long run and the country will successfully defend its spot as one of the world’s fastest growing developed economies in decades to come, according to predictions published in a new study.Professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers in a report published on Tuesday projects that the UK will slide just one place—to 10th from 9th—in the global purchasing power parity (PPP) rankings by 2050."

A financial prediction going forwards 33 years - good luck with that one ;-)

Wally
2
Postmanpat on 12 May 2017
In reply to Bogwalloper:

> A financial prediction going forwards 33 years - good luck with that one ;-)Wally

You mean like the project fear ones ahead of the referendum?
14
Postmanpat on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

FTSE 250 hits new record high....

https://www.ft.com/content/b5cb5f39-150c-31dd-881b-c6b1d9133f2e

Jasper Lawler, of London Capital Group, notes: “The return to form of the FTSE 250 is the unravelling of project fear in its plainest form. As Brexit fears have been proven unfounded, the FTSE 250 has been one of biggest beneficiaries.”
6
the sheep - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

I can be openly racist and bigoted now and everyone is cool with it
4
neilh - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Dax H:

I am in the states at the moment and most of my industrial customers are also rammed with work. Some people claim that it is Trumps good work. Rather like brexit is having a positive impact in U.K. manufacturing.

I am more balanced about it. Globally I see a surge in manufacturing activity .

this upsurge in U.K. manufacturing is nothing to do with Brexit and more to do with the global economy being buoyant .
3
MonkeyPuzzle - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

My girlfriend is Irish. She'd probably marry me if I asked nicely.
ads.ukclimbing.com
Moley on 12 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

> FTSE 250 hits new record high....https://www.ft.com/content/b5cb5f39-150c-31dd-881b-c6b1d9133f2eJasper Lawler, of London Capital Group, notes: “The return to form of the FTSE 250 is the unravelling of project fear in its plainest form. As Brexit fears have been proven unfounded, the FTSE 250 has been one of biggest beneficiaries.”

Our shares which support our pension keep going up in value, no idea why but we are not knocking it. I'm almost converting to a Brexiteer - money talks
6
tom_in_edinburgh - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

> FTSE 250 hits new record high....https://www.ft.com/content/b5cb5f39-150c-31dd-881b-c6b1d9133f2eJasper Lawler, of London Capital Group, notes: “The return to form of the FTSE 250 is the unravelling of project fear in its plainest form. As Brexit fears have been proven unfounded, the FTSE 250 has been one of biggest beneficiaries.”

Well of course it does. It would be amazing if stock prices of international companies measured in pounds didn't go up when the pound falls as much as it has done.

And the PMI figures are still lower than Germany and the Netherlands and not much better than France none of which have bought export growth with a currency devaluation.

Everyone is doing OK at the moment, maybe due to concerns about Trump fading a little and the UK numbers are helped by a currency devaluation. If we'd wanted to devalue our currency to boost exports we could have done it with a lot less disruptive policies. Electing Corbyn should be good for knocking 20% off the pound, maybe we should try that instead of Brexit.
4
Big Ger - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Moley:

This thread took a strange turn....
3
jkarran - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> "U.K.-based virtual reality start-up, Improbable, has raised $502 million in one of the largest investments for a European technology business at the embryonic stage of its development .... Improbable was founded just five years ago by two Cambridge University computer science graduates in order to create large-scale virtual worlds and simulations."

Surely that's more of an individual and perhaps Cambridge success story than a Brexit one? Remind me what Cambridge university had to say about the importance of remaining within the EU and being able to recruit freely, as I recall they didn't mince their words.
jk
3
Oldsign on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

I'll get to spend more time with the kids.

When we lost our EU funding all our other investors went quiet and now we're losing 80% of our workforce, yay!
2
David Riley - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Oldsign:
> When we lost our EU funding

We are still paying EU members ?
Post edited at 11:05
4
Oldsign on 12 May 2017
In reply to David Riley:

You try applying to the ERDF for a new project and let me know how you get on pal.
David Riley - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Oldsign:

You should have said "Now we cannot get EU funding for future projects".
6
Offwidth - on 12 May 2017
In reply to David Riley:

Current projects are affected. They shouldnt be but they are. Most bids involve cross national parnerships where UK involvement is getting harder to justify. Unfair, sure, unintended consequence, sure, still very real in too many cases.

This thread sounds like the output of the Hitchhikers guide B Ark Marketing team on speed. I'm only surprised we are not having arguments about the reconsidering the choice of red, white and blue for the brexit colours.
GrahamD - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

I'm feeling that everything is very much more under our control and I'm happy that the NHS is going to be getting 350m more a week.
Lusk - on 12 May 2017
In reply to GrahamD:

In everyone votes Labour in a few weeks time, they'll probably more chance of the £350M (minus rebate) being spent on the NHS etc. etc., rather than disappearing in Tax breaks for the f*cking Tories and their chums.
2
Bjartur i Sumarhus on 12 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh: "If we'd wanted to devalue our currency to boost exports we could have done it with a lot less disruptive policies."

Interested to know what policies the BoE could have done to give a nice 15% drop in value of GBP?

1
Offwidth - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:
The way international currency markets work any major mess up would have done. Your currency doesn't go down because the markets are impressed with your prospects. Most of the finance good news is a direct result of this devaluation and nearly all the rest is about world economic prospects as opposed to UK ones (and we haven't left yet)

I can see some lights at the end of the brexit tunnel as long as there is a deal. The problem with no deal is not about tariffs (that everyone seems obsessed with.. they are pretty trivial), its really about compliance rules and the costs and logistics of that (if you don't comply you can't export) and the cost and logistics of infrastructure requirements that we should have started putting in place already (eg. a massive increase in border forces, international trade negotiators.. etc). Despite all the free trade rhetoric major western trading blocks are hugely protectionist in macroeconomic application of such rules. There are severe risks to the economy could nose dive in such no deal circumstances.

I'd add that anyone who thinks the Germans won't cut off their nose to spite their face seems to me deluded, since they have risked the whole euro project by refusing to accept change to in-built competitive advantages (from the deutschemark evalation) which meant they have gained massively and unfairly at the expense of southern europe.
Post edited at 12:32
1
yorkshireman - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

As an immigrant living in France, it maybe contributed to the French not voting for Le Pen which would have undoubtedly made my life worse.

Now that my EU citizenship is being stripped from me by my own government I'm looking into taking French citizenship (I've been here over 5 years) and I can keep my UK passport/citizenship. So another positive effect will be I'll be able to play out secret Jason Bourne-style fantasies with multiple identities. I'll get me coat now.
tom_in_edinburgh - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

> "If we'd wanted to devalue our currency to boost exports we could have done it with a lot less disruptive policies."Interested to know what policies the BoE could have done to give a nice 15% drop in value of GBP?

I imagine if it had kicked off another big round of QE and said it was going to fund infrastructure with it that would have had an effect on the currency.


1
jkarran - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Brexit brings the first real chance of a united Ireland.
jk
1
skog on 12 May 2017
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

> Interested to know what policies the BoE could have done to give a nice 15% drop in value of GBP?

Printed 17.6% more money and given it to the High Seas Task Force, to help save the Patagonian Toothfish from illegal fishing, hopefully saving the poor old albatross.
Timmd on 12 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> And, after Brexit, a lot less red ink too! Hooray!!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-latest-news-repeal-law-public-health-threat-warning-...

Not all red ink is bad red ink.

2
thomasadixon - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Timmd:

That's my old lecturer in EU law! (Tamara, lovely woman, extremely pro EU as you'd expect)

Still, she knows as do the others that we in the UK are currently entitled to care free at the point of use because the UK government created the NHS. Better entitlement (imo, of course) than others in the EU, and not at all based on EU requirements. So we should be okay, even with the loss of rights only brought in a few years ago.
bouldery bits - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

It's raining which is good for the garden.
Yanis Nayu - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Babika:

> I am getting a kind of schadenfreude from seeing the pompous Euro technocrats get more and more huffy with every statement that comes out of their lips. They're really not doing themselves any favours in terms of making us miss them

It's not about them making us miss them - it's about trade, and we need them a hell of a lot more than they need us, as Brexiteer in Chief Mrs May pointed out before it was convenient for her to change sides.
4
Offwidth - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

It's true but it won't necessarily stop them hurting both of us. Its a very dangerous political gamble assuming they won't cut off their nose to spite their face: everything I've seen about the EU and especially the German influence, indicates the opposite. Don't forget that the hit on them overall economically is proportionately much smalller than the hit on us, despite the trade imbalance.
3
GrahamD - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Lusk:

> In everyone votes Labour in a few weeks time, they'll probably more chance of the £350M (minus rebate) being spent on the NHS etc. etc., rather than disappearing in Tax breaks for the f*cking Tories and their chums.

Tories and their chums ? I have friends who vote Conservative so that makes me a baddie I guess. Although I actually tend to vote for the only party that overtly want to increase my tax. Funny how these stereotypes work, eh ?
3
DerwentDiluted - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Michael Gove got Donkey Punched by his own Hubris.
1
neilh - on 12 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:
Well the small business sector in Germany recently pointed out that they reckon 750000 employees of small businesses will be affected if they get things wrong on the trade deal.
Offwidth - on 12 May 2017
In reply to neilh:
As I said there are no clear signs that will stop the German government ... think of the bigger picture on those small German companies if everyone apes Brexit. I suspect they will be compensated in some way for taking the pain for the common good. I'm still hoping for that deal so it won't matter.
Post edited at 16:26
3
Big Ger - on 13 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

Can I point you at the thread title and purpose?

"Brexit. Good news!

Post your brexit good news stories here."
1
Big Ger - on 13 May 2017
In reply to Timmd:

Good news, Timmd mate, good news....
1
Big Ger - on 13 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Superdry has emerged as one of the winners from the Brexit vote, as the weakness of the pound boosted the clothing brand’s performance overseas. SuperGroup, the owner of Superdry, said sales had jumped 27% to £750.6m in the past year, with currency moves behind about a third of the increase.

Superdry, best known for its logo-bearing hooded tops, jogging bottoms and checked shirts, has been enjoying a purple patch thanks to expansion overseas and a high-profile collaboration with the actor Idris Elba. The growth was particularly impressive at the brand’s wholesale arm, which includes its 319 franchise outlets, where sales jumped 42.9% to nearly £250m. Retail sales rose 20.6% to £501.6m."


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/11/fall-in-sterling-helps-superdry-sales-to-fly
Offwidth - on 13 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Can I remind you this is UKC and such rules don't apply. In any case I talked of a possible light at the end of a tunnel if a deal comes; which is certainly good for someone who is a labelled member of your clichéd 'bremoaner' group.
3
tripehound - on 13 May 2017
In reply to stevieb:

> House prices are falling, especially in central london<

Because nobodys got any money to buy them as Brexit kicks in.

4
Big Ger - on 14 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Manufacturing hammers new highs in UK business confidence
Press Release – 11 May 2017

The manufacturing sector is acting as the primary driving force behind business confidence in the UK, according to the latest results (Q1 2017) from the UK’s Credit Managers’ Index (CMI).

The Index – which is the quarterly barometer of the Chartered Institute of Credit Management (CICM) – also reports a reduction in market volatility with overall confidence and business growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors remaining high.

http://www.cicm.com/manufacturing-hammers-new-highs-uk-business-confidence/

The 1.5-point rise experienced in manufacturing sees it close at 62.7, an all-time CMI high. The result also represents a 3.7-point year-on-year rise and the second successive quarter that the sector has improved.
1
Jim C - on 14 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Superdry has emerged as one of the winners from the Brexit vote, as the weakness of the pound boosted the clothing brand’s performance overseas..........Superdry, best known for its logo-bearing hooded tops, jogging bottoms and checked shirts.


Is it just me, or am I the only one that does not like being a walking billboard advert for a company (AND paying through the nose for it, instead of being paid for doing their job for them.

The larger the logo you advertise, the less you should pay, This company is taking the pi$$ with theirs.

neilh - on 14 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Have just got back from visiting manufacturing companies in the mid-west of the states who are also experiencing an upsurge.You could easily put this down to the Trump effect as well.

This is clearly "boll....cks".

The uptick in activity is due to confidence and more activity in the global economy. Never mind as one American CEO put it to me that stock levels are so low that any increase has big impact on activity.

It's happening across the globe . See Germany's latest figures .
3
Postmanpat on 14 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Well of course it does. It would be amazing if stock prices of international companies measured in pounds didn't go up when the pound falls as much as it has done.
>
The FTSE 250 is largely made up of mid cap more domestically oriented companies.
Offwidth - on 14 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

.... and although less dependant on overseas assets still has a significant proportion in that sphere (cf about 70% for the 100 companies) and getting a big boost from the friendlier export market of a devalued pound as part of the EU trading block. The real effects on the 250 will only be visible after whatever Brexit we choose.
1
Postmanpat on 14 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

> .... and although less dependant on overseas assets still has a significant proportion in that sphere (cf about 70% for the 100 companies) and getting a big boost from the friendlier export market of a devalued pound as part of the EU trading block. The real effects on the 250 will only be visible after whatever Brexit we choose.

Yup, but in that sense it is quite representative of UK inc, unlike the FTSE 100 which has a substantial numbers of constituents which make the most of their profits not just from exports but from overseas operations (70% as the article says), so is not really representative of the UK economy.

The benefits of a weaker pound to exports which feeds through into FTSE 250 companies is one of the positive aspects of brexit!

When the FTSE 250 was underperforming the 100 the remainers told us that this showed that brexit was negative for anything but the big global companies. Now apparently the argument has changed to "ah, but the mid caps do some overseas business so it doesn't count"

1
neilh - on 14 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

I have to fundamentally disagree with you.

I am selling more machines overseas at the moment because of the uptick in global activity. It has nothing to do with Brexit .

I am not alone in this, just about every uk exporter I meet says the same thing .

Look at Germany's figures at the moment. It's the same .

Do not kid yourself.
1
Postmanpat on 14 May 2017
In reply to neilh:

> I have to fundamentally disagree with you. I am selling more machines overseas at the moment because of the uptick in global activity. It has nothing to do with Brexit .I am not alone in this, just about every uk exporter I meet says the same thing .Look at Germany's figures at the moment. It's the same .Do not kid yourself.

It would be quite odd if the fall in sterling were not a contributory factor to demand. The good news is that, whether one attributes it to la lower sterling, improved global demand, or a bit of both, things at this stage are much better than had been projected by the naysayers.
1
neilh - on 14 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

There was a cover photo on the economist 2/ 3,weeks ago showing the flag of every major global economy or trading block with a plus % growth number.

Yes it's good news.

As you know timing is everything in politics and most people will think it's to do with brexit. I hate to disappoint those people.
2
Big Ger - on 15 May 2017
In reply to neilh:

> I am selling more machines overseas at the moment because of the uptick in global activity.

Good news!

(Try and stick with that, it's what the thread is about.)
2
BnB - on 15 May 2017
In reply to neilh:

> There was a cover photo on the economist 2/ 3,weeks ago showing the flag of every major global economy or trading block with a plus % growth number.Yes it's good news.As you know timing is everything in politics and most people will think it's to do with brexit. I hate to disappoint those people.

Firstly, delighted to hear its going well for you. I'm in agreement that Brexit, or rather the 12% fall in GBP, isn't the key reason. What matters, as for most businesses, is that demand is high, so selling becomes easier.

What I think you might agree that your experience does illustrate, however, is that the world is a bigger place than Europe with plenty of opportunity. And that the impending threat of Brexit hasn't had the cataclysmic impact widely predicted by the economists. Most of whom have now completely changed their forecasts to almost eliminating the negatives.
1
Offwidth - on 15 May 2017
In reply to BnB:

Where is your proof for this? Most surveys of economists still seem pessimistic for any hard brexit scenario from anything I've read for anything other than long term predictions (which are worthless anyhow).

As for world growth vs currency issues you simply can't tell the proportion of each, especially as they interact; both are clearly positive factors right now for Britain in the EU. If nothing else we have that significant currency change advantage over companies in Europe exporting outside Europe.
1
BnB - on 15 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

It's pretty obvious to me that the government is aiming for a hard Brexit in political terms to satisfy the extreme end of its constituency but an extremely soft one in economic terms to satisfy the moderates. Most economists are buying into this outcome and not predicting a hard economic brexit, ie one without a free trade deal.

Your rider applies to the worst case scenario only. Which doesn't mean it won't happen, of course. The experts have been known to be wrong ;-)
neilh - on 15 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

If you are building your business based on the current value of the GBP, then you will ultimately fail. It is not going to stay low.

Most uk manufacturing is niche, not commodity based.Even cars.Demand is driven by the state of the global economy which is now positive.
neilh - on 15 May 2017
In reply to BnB:

You get a very negative view on Brexit when you talk to your global customers. Most just view it as making it more complicated for them in respect of the view of the world as 3 trade blocks- NAFTA, Europe and China- with the also rans.UK will fit in with the also rans in due course in their eyes.
Offwidth - on 15 May 2017
In reply to BnB:

Evidence? I've not seen a single positive survey of economists for brexit outcomes short to medium term of any type, even the softer end that May has pretty much already ruled out. Sure some economists have been more positive than others but thats not what you said and relying on outlier views is rather clutching at straws. I'd be delighted if we ended up with a full free trade deal but from expert views anyone thinking this can happen without effectively maintaining freedom of movement and EU law is deluded.

In any case its not the role of economists to predict politics, more to spell out predicted consequencies of decisions.
Offwidth - on 15 May 2017
In reply to neilh:

You build a business however you can, whatever the circumstances and if sensible make the most of good times, especially as global economies are hardly looking super stable at present. It was looking good in headline terms before the 2008 crash as well.

If we hard brexit, trade with Europe (where most UK trade is) will become a lot trickier, especially due to regulatory issues (and probably short term customs gridlock, the way things are going) rather than tariffs. For trade outside of the EU we piggy back EU trade deals and we need to negotiate our own fast.. neither our government history of getting successful outcomes from its policy through the civil service, nor the current levels of investment ramp-ups to build the armies for our planned new interfaces to the world bring me much faith. I strongly suspect we will need transition arrangements to cover the gap in our own planning incompetance when brexit comes, something we need to ask the EU nicely for and for which they will extract their end of the bargain.
neilh - on 15 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

Any exporter will have their products fit for purpose for the country they export to as a matter of standard practise.

You also overlook the bleed..g ibvious- we are already EC complaint. And if places like USA, China etc can export to EU we certainly can continue to do so.It is really quite easy.

You are really barking up the wrong tree on this.

Now frictionless trade through customs -that is a different position.
1
BnB - on 15 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:
> Evidence? Anyone thinking this can happen without effectively maintaining freedom of movement and EU law is deluded.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/eu-trade-commissioner-says-bloc-will-do-post-brexit-free-...

Now who's deluded?
Post edited at 11:43
ads.ukclimbing.com
Offwidth - on 15 May 2017
In reply to BnB:
Wow! a commissioner told the Telegraph... must be true then?? I guess we will have to wait and see won't we. You are right that anything is possible if we pay enough and genuinely negotiate on economic rather than political grounds but that means agreeing roughly equivalent terms to freedom of movement and EU law (a Norwegian variant) but how does May sell that to the country and the EU explain the second class status to the likes of Switzerland and Norway.

In reply to neilh

If the bleeding obvious is quite easy why isn't there more of it (ie UK manufacturing exports)?

Only the minority in the export market seem as sanguine as you about brexit risks with extra costs, regulation and dealing with borders all part of the concerns; let alone the very likely increased difficulty of recruitment from outside the UK, when we have skill gaps. Your area is only a microcosm of the UK export market. Its perfectly possible new regulatory compliance barriers could be enforced post transition (if there is one) in other areas especially for politically sensitive areas like food production (and some EU food tarrifs are very high). My University sector (several billion UK export market) are very worried indeed. Even small impacts on the financial services exports may well have a very big economic impact if significant business starts to move from London.

I really hope things go better than some of the more negative predictions but our politicians in charge aint inspiring much confidence in me as yet.

.
Post edited at 17:02
2
neilh - on 15 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

Just far more positive than you are. If you go round building up barriers in your mind to exporting...guess what ...you will never export.

Probably a difference between a private business and a public sector one.

Far too gloomy for me.
3
Offwidth - on 15 May 2017
In reply to neilh:

My manufacturing export and maufacturing brexit views are formed by companies I know, some of whom I work with, so please cut the patronising attitude. Most have genuine brexit concerns even if they hope for the best and do their best whatever.
1
BnB - on 15 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:
> Wow! a commissioner told the Telegraph... must be true then?? I guess we will have to wait and see won't we.

No, not any old commissioner. The EU Commissioner for trade since 2014. She is Juncker's selection for the post and that makes her pretty much the horse's mouth on the matter, wouldn't you say?.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cecilia_Malmstr%C3%B6m.

And not to the Torygraph, but to a conference in Copenhagen

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/reuters-america-eu-will-for-sure-reach-post-brexit-free-trade-deal-wi...

I ask why the Guardian didn't cover that story as well? Apart from anything else, it might help people to round off their views a little instead of living in a world of confirmation bias. As a Hebden Bridger my FB feed is awash with Corbyn mania and it would be easy to imagine that he's heading for a landslide instead of pitching to be leader of the "monopoly on virtue" party in opposition post election.
Post edited at 18:02
neilh - on 15 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

I have yet to meet any manufacturing and exporting company who paints such a gloomy picture as you.

And I voted remain.


2
Offwidth - on 15 May 2017
In reply to BnB:

So what Junker said after the infamous meal is plain wrong and she is really his boss??

What on earth do the rather colourful occupants of Hebden Bridge have to do with any of this?

Anyway, as you seen to be deflecting: the evidence I asked for was this mass of economists seeing a new brighter side of brexit.
2
Offwidth - on 15 May 2017
In reply to neilh:
Well either you don't know anyone ouside your political circle or you're not listeming. I can put you in touch with several small to medium sized engineering exporters who are furious with the way things have been handled so far and very concerned about the risks of a hard brexit. I know people on both sides (with a minority pro brexit and very much aware there could be issues but with fingers crossed).
Post edited at 18:24
3
Big Ger - on 16 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

Anyone seen a thread on the positives of Brexit? I'm sure I left one around here...
Big Ger - on 16 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Good news, we won't be part of this...

France's new president, Emmanuel Macron, has called for a "historic reconstruction" of Europe, saying it is "the only reaction" to fight populism. Speaking in Berlin on the first full day of his presidency, he was joined by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She said the pair had a "joint conviction" that they needed to "deepen the European Union".

Both said they would work together more closely on defence, eurozone reform and reducing bureaucracy. Mrs Merkel said the EU depended on France being strong, and that she and Mr Macron had a "joint conviction that we are not only going to deal with the British exit from the European Union, but we also need to deepen the EU".
5
Offwidth - on 16 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Just for you:

Lots of new border force jobs for people who would like to see a reduction in immigration and foreign imports.

Plenty of highly worthy charity work helping those caught up in the increasing mire of home office regulations faced by non residents.

Improvements in automation technology driven by minimum wage job shortages in physical work like fruit picking.

A big boost to self catering tourism and high end tourism based on the low pound alongside low to mid range hotels struggling to recruit staff.

Massive increases in care home tourism as the lower end industry in the south-east implodes.

A return to nurse bursaries or an exception immgration deal to fill skill gaps in hospitals (or both).

The lincolnshire economy will be fu*ked as too many local people were too stupid to see the economic impact of brexit.
1
john arran - on 16 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Anyone seen any positives of Brexit? I'm sure I was promised some...

FTFY
2
Postmanpat on 16 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Good news, we won't be part of this...France's new president, Emmanuel Macron, has called for a "historic reconstruction" of Europe, saying it is "the only reaction" to fight populism. Speaking in Berlin on the first full day of his presidency, he was joined by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She said the pair had a "joint conviction" that they needed to "deepen the European Union".
>
It would have been great! Fiscal union with France and Italy: what's not to like?!
2
Big Ger - on 17 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

"The FTSE 100's recent record-breaking run showed no sign of ending as the UK's main share index set new intra-day and closing highs. The index climbed above the 7,500 level for the first time, closing at 7,522.03 points after nine days of gains. Confidence in the outcome of the UK election and a recovery in commodity stocks helped lift the index, analysts said."

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39933927
1
Big Ger - on 17 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Exports continued to drive British car manufacturing in March, as demand rose 10.6% in the month, according to figures released by SMMT. 170,691 cars were built in the UK in March, up 7.3%, with overseas buyers ordering more than 76% of output.

Overseas demand also helped push overall production to a 17-year high in Q1, to 471,695 units – an increase of 7.6%. This helped offset a decline at home, with demand down -4.3% in the quarter.
1
The Ice Doctor - on 17 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Brexit is a great distraction tactic to sell more newspapers, talk more rubbish and keep the government busy and ensure they at least have a well paid job for a few more years, whilst keeping their rich pals happy and retaining great public sector pensions courtesy of the tax payer.
Big Ger - on 17 May 2017
In reply to The Ice Doctor:

> Brexit is a great distraction tactic to sell more newspapers, talk more rubbish and keep the government busy and ensure they at least have a well paid job for a few more years, whilst keeping their rich pals happy and retaining great public sector pensions courtesy of the tax payer.

Oh stop wining please?
4
Big Ger - on 17 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

https://www.ft.com/content/8d9fdd00-6b85-3100-b158-adbe3d76c7ff

Britain’s unemployment is now at its lowest since 1975 at just 4.6 per cent – falling unexpectedly from 4.7 per cent on the creation of 122k jobs in the three months to March. That’s also helped push the overall employment rate to the best since 1971 at 74.8 per cent – or 31.95m people in work.
1
The Ice Doctor - on 17 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

It's not a whinge , it's sarcasm and it's going over your head ;)
1
Big Ger - on 18 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Retail sales in April jumped 2.3% from the previous month and by 4% compared with April last year. The year-on-year jump was far higher than expected and was helped by warmer weather, according to retailers.Sterling jumped on news of the April rebound.
1
john arran - on 18 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

You're now claiming warmer weather to be a consequence of the Brexit vote?

If you're right, there may end up being be a positive to it after all ;-)
Big Ger - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

The number of tourists coming to Britain is the highest ever, according to new data released by the ONS. 7.6 million visitors came to the country in the last year, up 4% on the previous year, making it the 6th consecutive year we’ve seen a growth in visitors.

http://www.westmonster.com/britain-welcomes-record-number-of-tourists/
Offwidth - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

It's sensible they come now before many of the hotels, restaurants and venues are forced to close or price themselves out of the cheaper end of the market for a massive lack of minimum wage workers.
3
BnB - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

> It's sensible they come now before many of the hotels, restaurants and venues are forced to close or price themselves out of the cheaper end of the market for a massive lack of minimum wage workers.

Fewer burger bars then? Another positive!!
1
Offwidth - on 20 May 2017
In reply to BnB:
Fewer low to mid range proper restaurants and hotels, more burger bars more like. Talk to the people who run these businesses contributing to the UK economy and export market (that's where much tourism counts) many simply won't survive without their non british employees. Same with many british fruit farms.. care homes in the south....logistics warehouses... there are simply not enough brits around capable of filling more than a small fraction of these jobs, even if they all wanted to.
Post edited at 13:12
3
tom_in_edinburgh - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> The number of tourists coming to Britain is the highest ever, according to new data released by the ONS. 7.6 million visitors came to the country in the last year, up 4% on the previous year, making it the 6th consecutive year we’ve seen a growth in visitors. http://www.westmonster.com/britain-welcomes-record-number-of-tourists/

Yes, because the pound has fallen.

But what do you think leaving the EU and getting really tough on immigration is going to do for UK tourism? US tourism has dropped dramatically since people got spooked by Trumps policies and stories about folk getting hassled and sometimes detained at US immigration.
3
ads.ukclimbing.com
Postmanpat on 20 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Yes, because the pound has fallen.But what do you think leaving the EU and getting really tough on immigration is going to do for UK tourism? US tourism has dropped dramatically since people got spooked by Trumps policies and stories about folk getting hassled and sometimes detained at US immigration.

What, you mean our nazi border guards will keep out the tourists?
2
tom_in_edinburgh - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

> What, you mean our nazi border guards will keep out the tourists?

Exactly. Just like Trump's don't do any favours for the US tourism industry. If you dress people up like soldiers and give them targets based on keeping immigration below 100K a year they are going to behave like complete d*cks. There's no mystery about that.

The first time someone from France or Germany gets detained at Heathrow by an over zealous border guard that suspects they might be coming to work it will be in the French/German press the next day and a million other people will think twice about the UK for their holiday. Especially since the EU health care agreement will no longer apply, there will likely be a US style visa waiver form with a fee and with restrictions on hiring in the EU fewer people in the UK hospitality industry with language skills to deal with EU guests.

1
Postmanpat on 20 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
> Exactly.
>

Haha, you've jumped the shark. You mean like, say, Japanese coming to the UK now?

PS.Watch out for those threatening St.John's ambulance folk in their gestapo kit.
Post edited at 17:44
1
Andy Hardy on 20 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Quoting westmonster?

No depths left unplumbed.
tom_in_edinburgh - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

> Haha, you've jumped the shark. You mean like, say, Japanese coming to the UK now?

Yeah. 245,000 of them compared to 3.34 million Germans. If Brexit doubled Japanese tourism and lost 5% of EU tourism we'd come out worse.

https://www.visitbritain.org/markets

If you look at the graph Japanese tourism had been falling slowly for about a decade until a spike in 2016 which is probably explained by the fall in the pound.
1
Postmanpat on 20 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Yeah. 245,000 of them compared to 3.34 million Germans. If Brexit doubled Japanese tourism and lost 5% of EU tourism we'd come out worse.https://www.visitbritain.org/marketsIf you look at the graph Japanese tourism had been falling slowly for about a decade until a spike in 2016 which is probably explained by the fall in the pound.
>
Yup they were scared off by the immigration staffs' uniforms

Do you think it's difficult for the Japanese to get a visa waiver to enter the UK?
tom_in_edinburgh - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

> > Yup they were scared off by the immigration staffs' uniforms Do you think it's difficult for the Japanese to get a visa waiver to enter the UK?

No. I've been to Japan and from what I remember there was no hassle at all. So I guess it's much the same for Japanese people coming here.

The point is that the EU countries are a damn site closer than the US and Japan and you can get to the UK from the EU really quickly and cheaply, it doesn't have to be a major decision like going to the US or Japan. People can grab EasyJet and spend a couple of days in a hostel or on a friend's couch or with a relative without worrying about it.

You put immigration guys checking records of how many times they've come and gone and how long they stayed and hassling folk they think might be working and it gives 500 million potential EU tourists that at present don't need to have any concerns about coming to the UK an extra reason to keep their money in their pocket or go somewhere else.


Postmanpat on 20 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
> No. I've been to Japan and from what I remember there was no hassle at all. So I guess it's much the same for Japanese people coming here.
>
Exactly. In fact you don't need a visa or a visa waiver to visit Japan just as British haven't needed a visa to visit France or Germany in my lifetime, EU or no EU. Can you provide some basis beyond speculation for your expectation that this is to change? Or if they did, beyond your bizarre belief that immigration officials wear gestapo uniforms, why in the digital age it should create a barrier to short term trvel?
Post edited at 22:34
Big Ger - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

So, since I last posted some "Brexit good news", there have been 12 posts.

Some REALLY don't have a good grasp of this "GOOD news" thing...

john arran - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Au contraire, some REALLY don't have a good grasp of this "LACK OF GOOD news" thing...
1
tom_in_edinburgh - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

> > Exactly. In fact you don't need a visa or a visa waiver to visit Japan just as British haven't needed a visa to visit France or Germany in my lifetime, EU or no EU. Can you provide some basis beyond speculation for your expectation that this is to change?

Here is the Torygraph quoting the Tory Immigration minister.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/23/british-tourists-could-have-pay-visit-europe-post-brexit-...


> Or if they did, beyond your bizarre belief that immigration officials wear gestapo uniforms, why in the digital age it should create a barrier to short term trvel?

Please leave out the Gestapo uniform thing. I said their uniform was increasingly military which it is.

I spent years working for a US company and going through US immigration 3 or 4 times a year. One person I know was given the 'secondary inspection' treatment by US immigration which involved getting handcuffed to a bench while waiting to be interviewed and one was detained overnight. These were middle class guys with advanced degrees working for a billion dollar US company with plenty of money for lawyers. The guys it happened to tried to avoid trips and everyone who heard about it had a little extra degree of hesitation about travel to the US. If we go down that path nice middle class money spending tourists from the EU will start thinking twice about coming here. It's not going to stop tourism from the EU but it will knock a few percent off the addressable market.

The Tories are supposed to be the economically sensible party but the whole Brexit thing is the complete opposite, it's about getting the UKIP demographic to vote Tory with no regard for how much it costs the economy.

Big Ger - on 20 May 2017
In reply to john arran:

The "lack of good news" has several threads to be expressed in. It's characteristic of the remoaners that they cannot bear to hear good news, and want to bring the rest of us down.

Misery loves company" and all that.

Meanwhile...

1
Big Ger - on 20 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Record number of savers become 'Isa millionaires' after Brexit stock market boost. The number of savers with £1m or more in Isa accounts has "exploded" in recent months, with the UK's biggest stockbroker reporting the number on its books has tripled over the past year. A growing wave of so-called “Isa millionaires” have accrued such vast amounts via the accounts that some are able to use them to enjoy tax free six-figure incomes. Unlike pensions, where savers pay income tax on money paid out, savings withdrawn from Isas can be received tax-free.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/record-number-savers-become-isa-millionaires-brexit-stock...
Postmanpat on 20 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Here is the Torygraph quoting the Tory Immigration minister.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/23/british-tourists-could-have-pay-
>
So, one minister ruminating on what the EU might choose to do, which would be frankly a trivial inconvenience anyway.

Immigration officers' uniforms are no more "miltary" than a St.John's ambulanceman or an airline pilot. You're fantasising.

The US immigration system has long had a reputation for arrogance and aggression which has got worse recently, just as US police are routinely highly aggressive by UK standards. There is no reason except your own imagination to think UK immigration is suddenly going to adopt US techniques.

1
summo on 21 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
> . People can grab EasyJet and spend a couple of days in a hostel or on a friend's couch or with a relative without worrying about it.

You do know that before freedom of movement (OF WORKERS) people from the UK went to Europe on holiday? It wasn't just a day trip to largs or porty.
Post edited at 06:45
1
john arran - on 21 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> The "lack of good news" has several threads to be expressed in. It's characteristic of the remoaners that they cannot bear to hear good news, and want to bring the rest of us down. Misery loves company" and all that.Meanwhile...

As far as I can tell this thread has thrown up precious little, if any, substantive GOOD news that can actually be attributed to Brexit rather than currency devaluation (which could have been achieved without a lot of the Brexit-related BAD news). Your attempt at a feel-good thread appears to have tanked, and you appear to want to blame other people for pointing that out.

In which case I have some thing that'll be sure to cheer you up:


















STRONG and STABLE.


Feel better now?
HardenClimber - on 21 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

If you believe in Brexit, Leaving the EU is good news because that is the fulfilment of Brexit. The purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU and that will be achieved. Once we leave the EU Brexit will have occurred.

It is as simple as that. Brexit™, all the good news you could ever want.

For the many Brexit supporters Brexit is all that matters (apart from few Newspaper owner and other wealthy individuals who hope to make a lot of personal gain). It would be much simpler for everyone if everyone stopped looking for other incidental benefits of disadvantages and just accepted the good news that we will be leaving....everything else is unimportant. They find it cruel and vindictive to have people talking about plans, negotiations, risks and reality or just wanting an explanation beyond 'We're leaving'.
3
Pekkie - on 22 May 2017
In reply to HardenClimber:

> If you believe in Brexit, Leaving the EU is good news because that is the fulfilment of Brexit. The purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU and that will be achieved. Once we leave the EU Brexit will have occurred. It is as simple as that. Brexit™, all the good news you could ever want.

A joke? Sarcasm? It's difficult to tell on here. I'm staying out of it until the negotiations start and the likely outcome becomes clearer. Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates that the cost of leaving the single market could be a drop of 1.4% or £25 billion a year in the 'good' scenario and 2% or £36 billion a year in the 'worst'. A bit worrying when economists are arguing about the size of the hit.

stevieb - on 22 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Plenty of job opportunities working in the great outdoors and enough exercise to mean you'll be able to cancel that gym membership.

http://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/smashing-pumpkins-and-post-brexit-labou...
HardenClimber - on 22 May 2017
In reply to Pekkie:

Often it feels as if the Brexit group are still campaigning, using slogans rather than plans. We keep being told about the will of the people (13/25 voted for a vague and often contradictory collection of fantasies delusions and hopes). In conversation a significant proportion really don't seem to have get beyond the pleasure of winning and haven't thought about what comes next.

The longer this goes on the more damage will accrue.
Pekkie - on 22 May 2017
In reply to HardenClimber:

So you were being sarcastic! It could have been serious la-la-land Brexit bullshit. That's what's so frightening.
1
Big Ger - on 24 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Figures from the Office for National Statistics Tuesday showed that the shortfall in the latest fiscal year narrowed to 48.7 billion pounds instead of 52 billion pounds as previously estimated.

It left the deficit at 2.5 percent of gross domestic product, the lowest for a decade.
1
RomTheBear on 24 May 2017
In reply to BnB:
> It's pretty obvious to me that the government is aiming for a hard Brexit in political terms to satisfy the extreme end of its constituency but an extremely soft one in economic terms to satisfy the moderates.

Unless you have noticed there is a manifesto commitment to leave the single market, leave ECJ jurisdiction, and reduce net migration to 100,000. That's a very hard brexit in economic terms.
There is no such thing as a hard brexit in political terms and a soft brexit in economic terms, that's just meaningless rethoric. Political decisions have economic consequences.
Post edited at 08:51
1
BnB - on 24 May 2017
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Unless you have noticed there is a manifesto commitment to leave the single market, leave ECJ jurisdiction, and reduce net migration to 100,000. That's a very hard brexit in economic terms.There is no such thing as a hard brexit in political terms and a soft brexit in economic terms, that's just meaningless rethoric. Political decisions have economic consequences.

I realise you've got a very binary outlook on the world but that's no excuse for not realising that politics is about saying one thing while doing another. No one, May included, thinks that net migration will fall below 100k. It's just an appeal to UKIP voters not an objective. They haven't even committed to it, it's just an "ambition" apparently. And leaving the single market with the free trade deal that each side repeatedly says they both want doesn't sound like crashing out of the union to me.
2
Rog Wilko on 24 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Just seen in the paper that of the EU nations we are, apart from Ireland, bottom of the list for bathing water quality. Good to know that before too long we shall be allowed to return to dumping raw sewage in our coastal waters and we can have bathing water as filthy as we like.
ads.ukclimbing.com
stevieb - on 24 May 2017
In reply to Rog Wilko:
We're going to save lots of money on the air quality fines too

RomTheBear on 24 May 2017
In reply to BnB:
> I realise you've got a very binary outlook on the world but that's no excuse for not realising that politics is about saying one thing while doing another. No one, May included, thinks that net migration will fall below 100k. It's just an appeal to UKIP voters not an objective.

Not binary, realistic and based on previous events.
I'm pretty sure they'll find it hard to bring it bellow 100k (although it is clearly not out of reach if enough EU immigrants leave).
But I have little doubt that they will try hard to hit every category of migrants as hard as they possibly can, as they have already done in the past.

The income requirements for work visa will hike significantly, as will the immigration skills charge for employers, as will the spouse income requirements for family reunions, and as will the various fees on every visa.

How much do you want to bet ?

> They haven't even committed to it, it's just an "ambition" apparently. And leaving the single market with the free trade deal that each side repeatedly says they both want doesn't sound like crashing out of the union to me.

"A free trade deal" even as good as CETA (unlikely) would hit our economy hard. This is the assessment of most economists. Maybe they are all idiots with a binary vision of the world.
Post edited at 18:35
RomTheBear on 25 May 2017
In reply to BnB:
Just freshly out of the ONS this morning.
Net migration falls by 84,000, driven mostly by an increase of emigration of EU citizens. And that includes only a quarter post brexit vote.

If they keep leaving at the same rate we could get to net migration of 200,000 or less even before EU withdrawal. Even by next year in fact.
Post edited at 10:01
tom_in_edinburgh - on 25 May 2017
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Just freshly out of the ONS this morning.Net migration falls by 84,000, driven mostly by an increase of emigration of EU citizens. And that includes only a quarter post brexit vote.If they keep leaving at the same rate we could get to net migration of 200,000 or less even before EU withdrawal. Even by next year in fact.

The second part of the story is where the migrants will come from if they don't come from the EU. The UKIP section of the Brexit lobby don't want migrants but the Tory donors and landowners do and they figure that without the tiresome EU human rights laws government could invent some really restrictive short term visas that let them access the vast numbers of people in North Africa that would work for almost nothing.

1
Pete Pozman - on 25 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

We're still in aren't we? As long as it lasts that's good news.
1
Big Ger - on 26 May 2017
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Just freshly out of the ONS this morning.Net migration falls by 84,000, driven mostly by an increase of emigration of EU citizens. And that includes only a quarter post brexit vote.

I'm surprised you consider this good news Rom.
4
RomTheBear on 26 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> I'm surprised you consider this good news Rom.

I don't.
Big Ger - on 27 May 2017
In reply to RomTheBear:

LOL!! That famous sense of humour of yours, it just cracks me up.
5
RomTheBear on 27 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> LOL!! That famous sense of humour of yours, it just cracks me up.

I'm not the one trying to make jokes and failing miserably.
1
Big Ger - on 28 May 2017
In reply to RomTheBear:

There it is again!!!
2
Big Ger - on 29 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

“But the effect has been more muted than expected, figures show an increase in total investment of 0.5% in 2016 and business investment increasing by 0.8% at the start of 2017.

Foreign direct investment jumped in 2016, up £33 billion from the previous year, whilst the country is welcoming a record number of tourists to our shores."

2
Big Ger - on 30 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

The chairman of Lloyds Banking Group expects London to “weather” the storm of Brexit, even if there is a “no deal” conclusion to talks with the EU. Lord Norman Blackwell predicted London will not experience a “Jenga tower” collapse and suggested that, while there will be fragmentation of financial services, no other European capital will emulate the UK capital’s success. “I’m not complacent, but I do think London and UK financial services can weather a situation where there is ‘no deal’,” he said at the City Week event in London’s Guildhall this morning.

also;

" A legal challenge in the Irish courts aimed at preventing the UK’s departure from the EU has been abandoned, bringing to an end one of the most tenacious rearguard actions outside the UK against Brexit. Jolyon Maugham QC, a British barrister, had brought a case to the High Court in Dublin seeking to establish that Brexit could be halted even after the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. The high-profile case raised £70,000 in a crowdfunding drive and consisted of a series of questions related to Article 50 and the effects of leaving the EU on citizens’ rights and other issues."
3
tom_in_edinburgh - on 30 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> The chairman of Lloyds Banking Group expects London to “weather” the storm of Brexit, even if there is a “no deal” conclusion to talks with the EU. Lord Norman Blackwell predicted London will not experience a “Jenga tower” collapse and suggested that, while there will be fragmentation of financial services, no other European capital will emulate the UK capital’s success. "

Why do you think this is good news? In my experience it isn't a good sign when the chairman or CEO of a bank feels the need to state publicly that they don't believe their business is about to collapse like a Jenga tower.

1
Big Ger - on 30 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Better than them stating it is, surely?

Although seeing as most here haven't got the concept of "good news" down pat.....
1
jkarran - on 30 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> “But the effect has been more muted than expected, figures show an increase in total investment of 0.5% in 2016 and business investment increasing by 0.8% at the start of 2017.Foreign direct investment jumped in 2016, up £33 billion from the previous year, whilst the country is welcoming a record number of tourists to our shores."

Because our currency slumped. Currency devaluation seems to be the one 'positive' we keep coming back to but by any reasonable measure it isn't positive, triggered by brexit uncertainty it is not indicative of good times to come. If currency devaluation were the goal we could have better achieved it with massive government infrastructure/housing investment, it'd help exporters and hurt many ordinary consumers just the same but at least there'd be a return in the long run.
jk
1
MG - on 30 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

It's remarkable the contortions brexiteers try to make. This is a bit like injecting yourself with HIV and then being pleased when a doctor says it probably won't kill you.
1
Big Ger - on 30 May 2017
In reply to MG:

There's some fine examples of what is considered "good news" by the remainers here...
1
jkarran - on 30 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> The chairman of Lloyds Banking Group expects London to “weather” the storm of Brexit, even if there is a “no deal” conclusion to talks with the EU. Lord Norman Blackwell predicted London will not experience a “Jenga tower” collapse and suggested that, while there will be fragmentation of financial services, no other European capital will emulate the UK capital’s success. “I’m not complacent, but I do think London and UK financial services can weather a situation where there is ‘no deal’,”

So there will be 'fragmentation of financial services' (jargon for closures, job/skill losses and offshoring) but he is not predicting a catastrophic 'Jenga tower' collapse of the UK's key industry (jargon for the end of life as we know it in the UK). Brilliant.

Let me get this straight, you consider it *good* that someone is having to make these predictions of damage but probably not complete calamity because of a choice we the electorate made?

Obviously the worse this goes for us, the more your dollars are worth so that's good, for you. See, I can do positive.
jk
Post edited at 14:59
1
HardenClimber - on 30 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

If he was a ships captain he'd be telling us the watertight bulkheads should contain the flooding....and soon the backup generators will kick in.
stevieb - on 30 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Lord Norman Blackwell predicted London will not experience a “Jenga tower” collapse and suggested that, while there will be fragmentation of financial services, no other European capital will emulate the UK capital’s success. “I’m not complacent, but I do think London and UK financial services can weather a situation where there is ‘no deal’,

Wow, you really are a glass half full kind of guy if the fragmentation of financial services is part of the good news, I thought that was exactly what
Remainers were concerned about.

Big Ger - on 30 May 2017
In reply to jkarran:
> Brilliant.Let me get this straight, you consider it *good* that someone is having to make these predictions of damage but probably not complete calamity because of a choice we the electorate made?

I'm always happy with honesty, especially when it contradicts the never ending stream of doom and gloom.


> Obviously the worse this goes for us, the more your dollars are worth so that's good, for you. See, I can do positive.

That's why I'm praying for a Corbyn victory.

I can do sarcasm too...

GT.
Post edited at 23:54
2
Big Ger - on 31 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Surging sales of salmon helped the UK to export a record amount of food and drink in the first quarter of 2017, the Food and Drink Federation has said. The industry group said sales of the fish leapt more than 50% by value - to £186.7m - and 13% by volume. British food and drink exports as a whole grew by 8.3% year-on-year to £4.9bn - the largest first quarter figure on record.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40090366
Big Ger - on 31 May 2017
In reply to jkarran:

> Obviously the worse this goes for us, the more your dollars are worth so that's good, for you. See, I can do positive.jk

Sterling is already dropping on the back of May's falling in the polls.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40101566

I may be able to retire a few months earlier than planned.

GT.
1
summo on 31 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Sterling is already dropping on the back of May's falling in the .........news/business-40101566I may be able to retire a few months earlier than planned.GT.

Cheaper for all those overseas tourists too. Might be only industry left after 5 years of Corbyn and McCluskey.
paul__in_sheffield - on 31 May 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

I was expecting a disaster in terms of research funding finding its way from the EU to the UK after the referendum. However, my team have picked up more research programmes than we can cope with so we'll be recruiting (generally from overseas via tier 2 visas - the irony) more engineers. This isn't unique as I'm hearing similar stories across the network.
Going forward, our EU collaborators including Commission Project Officers?! seem committed to continuing our relationships (just like they currently do with external countries like the US). Airbus is all over Rolls-Royce like a rash, especially since the pound has become so competitive via the exchange rate.
The U.K. has been one of the major contributors (in terms of leadership and expertise) to EU R&D projects for a long time, and it (unless you get lucky AND invest heavily, and even then many research institutions don't make it) can take decades to build the kind of world-leading expertise delivered by our leading universities, OEMs and supply chains. The EU will struggle to deliver its commitments, for example the Clean Skies Programme, without significant UK input.
I think that once the rhetoric has subsided, that certainly in terms of engineering and technology, a workable and profitable relationship for both sides will be worked out.
ads.ukclimbing.com
Jim C - on 31 May 2017
In reply to paul__in_sheffield:

Sorry Paul, you must be mistaken , or lying. JKarran can't be wrong.

Check again please , are you sure it's is not a disasterous situation, of no money and layoffs , with your team being frozen out?
Jim C - on 31 May 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Why do you think this is good news? In my experience it isn't a good sign when the chairman or CEO of a bank feels the need to state publicly that they don't believe their business is about to collapse like a Jenga tower.

Maybe he is fed up with Remoaners putting out false information, that may actually affect his business if it were to be believed.
1
neilh - on 31 May 2017
In reply to paul__in_sheffield:

That is easily one of the most best posts on this subject for a long time.Even though a remainer, it is really great to hear things like this.

jkarran - on 31 May 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> I'm always happy with honesty, especially when it contradicts the never ending stream of doom and gloom.

He's still predicting doom and gloom from a no-deal exit you wally, just not totally cataclysmic doom and gloom. Great. Remind me again what was so wrong with nice steady growth in a stable union by comparison with this that this should be considered *good*?
jk
1
jkarran - on 31 May 2017
In reply to Jim C:

> Sorry Paul, you must be mistaken , or lying. JKarran can't be wrong. Check again please , are you sure it's is not a disasterous situation, of no money and layoffs , with your team being frozen out?

About what? By and large I agree with Paul, long term we'll find ways to work with the EU in spite of the terrible political choices we're making, the connections have been made and may be maintained with care. Current increases in investment and spending are as he identifies largely due to currency devaluation (based on the assumption we'll do less well on the path we chose than the one we were on so not really a good thing) and a surprisingly buoyant global economy (unsustainable consumer debt fueled?) which unless something has recently and radically changed in the human psyche is unlikely to last long before the next shock tips the trend the other way. The thing that really pisses me off is what is all this risk and upset for... what good comes from it? All we see and are celebrating at the moment is that people are finding ways of minimising harm.

It's like you're celebrating the amputation that saved you from a self inflicted gangrenous wound, yeah it's good you're not dead but now you only have one arm and you need to learn how to do everything again, mostly with a bit more difficulty.
jk
Post edited at 10:09
1
paul__in_sheffield - on 31 May 2017
In reply to neilh:

> That is easily one of the most best posts on this subject for a long time.Even though a remainer, it is really great to hear things like this.

Well, it's not a very big sample size, but I'm in contact with Med Tech, Aerospace and Advanced Manufacturing companies from SMEs to tier 1 and OEM on a daily basis. No one is expecting painful tariffs as everyone on both sides has too much to lose. Prevalent is the view that as long as the Euro doesn't tank (actually quite a few expect it to within 5 years), then the impact of the exchange rate more than makes up for any potential arrangements.
I've a meeting with DLR the German Aerospace Institute to discuss post-Brexit relations irrespective of what mire the politicians get into. A very pragmatic approach.

My real concern is our UK skills base. My (brilliant) staff list looks like the membership of the League of Nations, however, only a few EU researchers on Sabbatical/Internship, and no UK researchers. None. Now, I only recruit based on Solid HR principles of best person for the job, but I would love some home candidates at least to apply and make it through to shortlisting. We've a shortage of high quality engineering researchers coming through the system which we need to address to make the UK's future robust.
I'm hearing the right messages coming out of Innovate UK etc implementing forward planning for the transition during Brexit, and got positive message from Patrick McGloughlin (conservative chairman) regarding SME support going forward (if they get in).
neilh - on 31 May 2017
In reply to paul__in_sheffield:

I manufacture captial equipment which I sell to tier 1 suppliers to the heavy vehicle sector ( Caterpillar and the like). Do some areospace work as well.

I do nothing in the UK - all export.

Very strong order book. My supply chain which includes UK foundries cannot keep up as they too are very busy.

The £ helps but not critically so- a sits a niche product- global economy is just shall we say bouyant.

Sounds like you work at centre in Sheffield funded by Boeing etc.
paul__in_sheffield - on 31 May 2017
In reply to neilh:

> I manufacture captial equipment which I sell to tier 1 suppliers to the heavy vehicle sector ( Caterpillar and the like). Do some areospace work as well.I do nothing in the UK - all export.Very strong order book. My supply chain which includes UK foundries cannot keep up as they too are very busy.The £ helps but not critically so- a sits a niche product- global economy is just shall we say bouyant.Sounds like you work at centre in Sheffield funded by Boeing etc.

I worked at Sheff Uni for 16 years, and the whole AMRC/Boeing/Rolls etc thing is going really well.
I head up a Research Institute a bit closer to R-R these days ;-)
Offwidth - on 31 May 2017
In reply to paul__in_sheffield:

Who fills that skill gap though Paul? The recent government investment in apprenticeships and engineering is a drop in the ocean compared to industry requirements and its simply not possible to have migration in the tens of thousands and to fill all the gaps. About 3/4 of appointments over the last few years in my Uni in my part of STEM (Engineering and Computing related) are non UK citizens and there are only a tiny number of British PhD students around the system. Most overseas staff are worried and some are already suffering real negative social effects that mean they are thinking of leaving the UK (eg kids bullied at school; facing the realities of the comparative nightmare process to apply for UK residency).
neilh - on 31 May 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

I have connections in Indian research instiutions. They have assured me or should I say reassured me) that there is in every country a shortage of of engineers. They laugh at our view that it is a uniquely English issue.

It is perhaps worth bearing this in mind when we get angst ridden on this subject.
Offwidth - on 31 May 2017
In reply to neilh:

Britain is special in having such a low numbers trained as a proportion of total HE students (and facing such huge competition from service industries for highly numerate grads) and now claiming to be actively trying to stop those filling the skills gap from coming in. Which skilled workers will be stopped since the demand is over 100k a year (partly since St Teresa personally insists overseas students be part of the total against much cabinet advice).
Big Ger - on 01 Jun 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Google has officially submitted plans for its new 1million sq ft (92,000m2) “landscraper” London headquarters, with the intention of beginning construction on the building in 2018. Designed by Bjarke Ingels Group and Heatherwick Studios, the team behind TfL’s New Bus for London and the 2012 Olympic Cauldron, the building will stand 11 storeys tall and stretch parallel to the platforms of London’s King’s Cross railway station.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jun/01/google-submits-plans-million-sq-ft-london-hq-cons...
tom_in_edinburgh - on 01 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Google has officially submitted plans for its new 1million sq ft (92,000m2) “landscraper” London headquarters, with the intention of beginning construction on the building in 2018. Designed by Bjarke Ingels Group and Heatherwick Studios, the team behind TfL’s New Bus for London and the 2012 Olympic Cauldron, the building will stand 11 storeys tall and stretch parallel to the platforms of London’s King’s Cross railway station.https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jun/01/google-submits-plans-million-sq-ft-london-hq-cons...

As someone involved in tech this story is depressing on so many levels. It's a story about a once great tech company becoming fat and middle aged and being distracted by the pursuit of political influence and real estate speculation.

It sucks that a company founded on the internet thinks it needs 7,000 person physical offices.

It sucks that they are putting a billion quid into an office building instead of R&D. If they believed in themselves they would act like there were far greater gains to be had from putting their money into R&D rather than land and buildings.

It sucks they feel they need to do it in London. Until about 10 years ago London was nowhere as a tech centre in the UK but it has leveraged proximity to government and finance to suck another industry away from the rest of the country. Google is playing the same dirty game. They want a highly visible presence in London with the sort of high paid jobs that will attract people connected to politics and the civil service in order to get political influence to keep their tax bill low and avoid harmful regulation. They are playing the same game as the banks.


2
paul__in_sheffield - on 01 Jun 2017
In reply to Offwidth:

> Britain is special in having such a low numbers trained as a proportion of total HE students (and facing such huge competition from service industries for highly numerate grads) and now claiming to be actively trying to stop those filling the skills gap from coming in. Which skilled workers will be stopped since the demand is over 100k a year (partly since St Teresa personally insists overseas students be part of the total against much cabinet advice).

Exacerbated by the wild gender imbalance in Engineering.
Postmanpat on 01 Jun 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

This probably isn't good news but I'd rather be out than in if he's right.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/01/soros-says-the-european-union-is-now-in-an-existential-crisis-surroun...
Sir Chasm - on 01 Jun 2017
In reply to Postmanpat:

In respect of brexit I suppose Soros saying "Brexit will be an immensely damaging process, harmful to both sides." isn't awfully encouraging - probably best for another thread.
Big Ger - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> British manufacturing growth remains strong, with exports up and companies positive about prospects for the rest of 2017, a survey shows. The EEF employers' organisation, which said companies' recruitment plans are healthy, raised its manufacturing growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018. The survey, compiled with accountancy firm BDO, said demand from European markets was particularly strong. Despite Brexit fears and the election, confidence is high, the EEF said. The quarterly survey said that demand in European markets "looks especially buoyant", with 61% of companies surveyed reporting an upturn.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40154368
Big Ger - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> The World Bank has upgraded its forecasts for UK growth over the next three years against a stronger global backdrop that will boost the British economy despite its weak start to the year. Economists at the Bank expect the UK economy to grow by 1.7pc this year. This is only slightly below last year’s expansion of 1.8pc, and up from a forecast of 1.2pc in January. This is only slightly below last year’s expansion of 1.8pc, and up from a forecast of 1.2pc in January.
Gordon Stainforth - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Since these forecasts are based on us remaining within Europe for the next few years, what exactly have they to do with Brexit?

Further, the BBC article that you link to about the survey ends with the sober warning: "There were, however, plenty of economic unknowns that could derail growth, she said. The continued squeeze on household incomes and the possibility of no deal on Brexit could damage trade, Ms Hopley said."
1
Big Ger - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
What makes you say they were "based on us remaining in the EU"?

> Further, the BBC article that you link to about the survey ends with the sober warning: "There were, however, plenty of economic unknowns that could derail growth, she said. The continued squeeze on household incomes and the possibility of no deal on Brexit could damage trade, Ms Hopley said."

That whole "glass half empty" theme of yours....
Post edited at 08:49
Gordon Stainforth - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

No, it's all about glass half full - which is my position. Most businesses are of course being as optimistic as possible, which is essential for market confidence, 'despite Brexit fears'. The survey is what people feel now, and are seeing now, before we've left. No one knows what form of deal we are going to have, so of course any predictions have to be based on feelings and assessments now, while we are still in the single market.
RomTheBear on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:
In the meantime, GDP per capita growth last quarter : a big zero. Wage growth: negative.
Post edited at 09:26
1
Big Ger - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> so of course any predictions have to be based on feelings and assessments now, while we are still in the single market.

While blithely ignoring the possible impacts of Brexit?

That's a bit strange of the main UK manufacturers organisation, especially in the light of this;

https://www.eef.org.uk/campaigning/campaigns-and-issues/current-campaigns/manufacturing-and-europe

Even more strange for the World bank to be ignoring it...

You're just projecting your own doom and gloom, aren't you?
1
Big Ger - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to RomTheBear:

> In the meantime, GDP per capita growth last quarter : a big zero. Wage growth: negative.

Hey Rom;

Can I point you at the thread title and purpose?

"Brexit. Good news!

Post your brexit good news stories here."


Why not have a go?
4
tom_in_edinburgh - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

'Glass half full' like the guy who jumps out the 50th floor of a skyscraper and thinks everything is OK when he passes the 25th floor. We are heading for total economic disaster unless we get a deal with the EU which means David Davis and Theresa May are totally delusional to think they are negotiating from strength.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/britain-being-led-to-epic-act-self-harm-brexit
1
ads.ukclimbing.com
Big Ger - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Can I point you at my reply above?

1
john arran - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> "Brexit. Good news!Post your brexit good news stories here."Why not have a go?

The game's too hard for me. It's like playing Where's Wally with a photo that doesn't have Wally in it.
You're welcome to keep trying though, if it makes you feel better.
3
Jim C - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> In respect of brexit I suppose Soros saying "Brexit will be an immensely damaging process, harmful to both sides." isn't awfully encouraging - probably best for another thread.

We can all pick out Soros quotes.

"The European Union must resist temptation to punish Britain and approach the negotiations in a constructive spirit, ...should use Brexit as a catalyst for introducing far-reaching reforms," Soros said.......the EU has the chance "to transform itself into an organization that other countries like Britain would want to join."
1
Sir Chasm - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Jim C:

Then pick me out a quote where Soros is saying brexit will be good for the UK.
1
tom_in_edinburgh - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

Can I point you at some of the data in the Will Hutton Guardian article I linked:

"Which is why any economic forecaster who looks coolly at the facts has to project a fall in British trade. The World Bank believes that if Britain switches from single market membership to trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms – the “no deal” option – then British trade in goods with the EU will halve and trade in services will fall by 60% as these effects work through.

Yet that is only the beginning of the disaster. To keep exports of goods and services flowing to the rest of the world on the same terms as now, even before negotiating new deals, Britain will have to renegotiate 759 agreements with 168 countries that are now held by the EU, as the Financial Times disclosed last week. That is 759 opportunities for other countries, knowing our plight, to try to negotiate something better.

The clock is ticking. Decisions on where companies place exports and source imports in 2019 have to be taken in 2018. In reality, Britain has to find solutions to all these issues in less than 12 months."
Bob Kemp - on 05 Jun 2017
RomTheBear on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Hey Rom;Can I point you at the thread title and purpose?"Brexit. Good news!Post your brexit good news stories here."Why not have a go?

Good news ? Brexit has managed to spur a grassroots pro-EU movement in the rest of the EU, something European politicians failed to do for decades.

So here you go, there is always a silver lining.
Big Ger - on 05 Jun 2017
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Britain could be set to make more Hollywood blockbusters such as Star Wars, The Mummy and Wonder Woman and fewer European arthouse films because of Brexit, a leading industry figure predicts.

US movie and TV companies are switching production from America, Canada and Australia to here because the falling pound has cut costs by up to 20 per cent while European productions risk stalling because of fears over loss of EU funding, changes to tax credits and introduction of visas.

Adrian Wootton, chief executive of Film London and the British Film Commission, said it had been the “busiest ever” British Pavilion at the Cannes Film Festival, which ended on Sunday. Film London had been “inundated” with US and international in-quiries. He added: “There have been some concerns about Brexit but we’ve been reaching out to our European friends to tell them nothing has changed. We have the crews, studios, the acting pool and the world’s best visual effects companies in Soho.


http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/film/brexit-to-send-more-us-film-blockbusters-to-britain-a3557151...
2
tom_in_edinburgh - on 06 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Britain could be set to make more Hollywood blockbusters such as Star Wars, The Mummy and Wonder Woman and fewer European arthouse films because of Brexit, a leading industry figure predicts. US movie and TV companies are switching production from America, Canada and Australia to here because the falling pound has cut costs by up to 20 per cent while European productions risk stalling because of fears over loss of EU funding, changes to tax credits and introduction of visas.

Brilliant! Let's announce another suicidal policy and maybe the pound will drop another 50% so it is even cheaper to make movies in the UK. A 20% drop is good so an extra 50% has to be awesome.
jkarran - on 06 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Can I point you at the thread title and purpose? Why not have a go?

There simply aren't many (any?).

If people had stuck strictly to your rules and hadn't challenged some of your dubious interpretations of news as good and brexit caused it'd be a very short thread indeed. Perhaps the true picture will become clearer to you once you move back here. Don't give up that Oz passport.
jk
Big Ger - on 06 Jun 2017
In reply to jkarran:
> There simply aren't many (any?).

Depends on your perspectives.


I certainly wont give up my Aussie passport.

However, with it looking like, at best a reduced Tory majority, and at even better a Corbyn government, whatch my $Au soar, I'll be a happy camper when I return....
Post edited at 09:53
jkarran - on 06 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> I certainly wont. However, with it looking like, at best a reduced Tory majority, and at even better a Corbyn government, whatch my $Au soar, I'll be a happy camper when I return....

It'll go even further as the loss of EU regional development funding shrinks Cornwall's economy. Time it right and you might be able to snap up some tourism business bargains just before the rest of the population realises they can no longer afford their European holidays and the low cost airlines relocate.
jk
Big Ger - on 06 Jun 2017
In reply to jkarran:
> It'll go even further as the loss of EU regional development funding shrinks Cornwall's economy.

Cornwall's economy is f#ck3d already.

It's the $Au vs the £ I have to watch. Since I've been in Aus it's been as low as $1 = 32p, and as high as $1 = 68p.

We've done all our retirement calculations on $1 =50p, anything better than that and we'll transfer living money over.

Send $10,000 @ 32p get £3,200

Send $10,000 @ 50p get £5,000

Send $10,000 @ 68 p, get £6,800

I know which one I'd prefer...

ETA:

Funny you should mention EU development money, remembering that teh average wage across Cornwall is around £20,000 pa.


> A "damning" report has found millions of pounds of European Union funding failed to create an expected 10,000 new jobs in Cornwall. Independent consultants analysed the impact of £465m of EU convergence money in the county between 2007 and 2013. Kim Conchie, chief executive of the Cornwall Chamber of Commerce, said: "It's pretty damning in many ways, the vast majority of money that's been spent in Cornwall and the Scillies over the past 15 years has not resulted in the number of jobs or the value added that we were expecting. "You've got some absolutely damning statistics, for example in the research and development fund, the cost per job was £160,000 per person."
Post edited at 10:24
jkarran - on 06 Jun 2017
In reply to Big Ger:

> Cornwall's economy is f#ck3d already.

It's more f****d now.

> We've done all our retirement calculations on $1 =50p, anything better than that and we'll transfer living money over.Send $10,000 @ 32p get £3,200Send $10,000 @ 50p get £5,000Send $10,000 @ 68 p, get £6,800I know which one I'd prefer...

Me to because like most Brits my living is hand to mouth paid in pounds which day by day buy less as an inevitable consequence of the choice you made.

One possible good to come from brexit is that confidence and investment plans in British agriculture as reported in NFU surveys has dropped off a cliff over the past 12 months. Perhaps the turkeys that voted for Christmas will now actually apply some pressure to their conservative representatives to minimise the harm because they don't appear to be listening to anyone else. Probably not though because Tally HO!, they're getting fox hunting back by way of compensation for their businesses going down the pan.
jk
Big Ger - on 06 Jun 2017
In reply to jkarran:

> Me to because like most Brits my living is hand to mouth paid in pounds

Most?

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