UKC

Watching what is happening here in Australia has some massive lessons for the UK as the nights get longer and autumn approaches.

For context, Australia is quite big, and the weather is more varied than is portrayed on TV, the modelling is starting to show how much of an impact this can have. The difference in COVID between the different states here is huge. Victoria (think Neighbours) where it is cold and wintery we are seeing cases rise and are back in stage 3 lockdown. Further north where the weather is warmer (think Home & Away) restrictions are being eased and the pubs are open. 

I really, really hope that the UK can prepare for this winter. I have elderly parents in the UK, if they get ill I cannot get to the UK to see them (i.e. not that it would be difficult, there just are not any flights).

It is interesting to get a view from someone on the ground elsewhere in the world and I too hope the UK can learn from nations who are at a different and more advanced stage on the pandemic.

Unfortunately, from the outset our government here in the UK has been very poor in two important ways -

1. taking notice of the responses of other countries, and

2. being decisive about their action.

Dave

Is it definitely weather-related however or something else? Plenty of hot places (e.g. Iran) having further problems too.

My family learned to ski in Iran.

It's not always hot.

It seems many countries are reporting cases rising?

But is this due to testing being more widespread and better organised, are hospitalizations and deaths increasing proportionally too, because you don't hear these being mentioned very much. 

I'm just speculating that it 'may' be weakening, it's doesn't of course mean the vulnerable are safe, it's all relative. 

Of course, but its 33C in Tehran currently...

True, no skiing today! 

My take: Both heat and cold can drive people indoors where transmission risk is higher.  

One big difference is that heating in northern climates is normally by air circulating within a room whereas cooling in more southern climes is often by forced air circulating beyond a room through air-conditioning ducts and heat exchangers, as well as a condenser.  I'd naively imagine that the later gives infected droplets more chance to settle down on inaccessible surfaces, and that possibly the condenser stage gets the infected droplets out of circulation.  But this is not very scientific...

FTFY 😀

And I learnt to ski and board in Australia 😂

Seems to be growing scientific evidence, all be it not conclusive suggest covid -19 is acting like a seasonal virus, with climate effecting transmission.

Quote below from Oxford university centre for evidence based medicine;

'Weather conditions appear to influence the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, although evidence is not sufficient nor sufficiently consistent to allow causation to be inferred. 

Higher temperatures are associated with fewer cases;

Higher relative or absolute humidity is associated with fewer cases;

Dry conditions seem to favour viral spread; and  

Exacerbating effects include high levels of pollution and low wind speed'

The head of the centre in recent interviews also suggest the reason virus may seem weaker just now in northern hemisphere is probably a combination of increased vitamin D in society, and virus being more unstable in summer climate meaning people catching it are getting a lower virus load.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/environmental-weather-conditions-and-influenc...

The death rate is invariably lower now as countries have learnt to keep the virus out of care homes.  Some places are seeing increased cases due to more testing, but if the amount of positive tests as a percentage isn't dropping then its an increase in the virus' prevalence or they're still not testing enough.  For some countries the increase is due to relaxing lockdown - Montenegro is a prime example.